The future choice of technologies and co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in Bangladesh power sector

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400 PJ to 4898 PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

This paper analyzes the sectoral energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO₂ and local air pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It also discusses the evolution of energy service demands, structure of energy supply system and emissions from various sectors under the base case scenario during 2005–2050. A long term energy system planning model of the Kathmandu Valley based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework is used for the analyses. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the least cost options to achieve CO₂ emission reduction targets of 10%, 20% and 30% below the cumulative emission level in the base case and also discusses their implications for total cost, technology-mix, energy-mix and local pollutant emissions. The paper shows that a major switch in energy use pattern from oil and gas to electricity would be needed in the Valley to achieve the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 30% (ER30). Further, the share of electricity in the cumulative energy consumption of the transport sector would increase from 12% in the base case to 24% in the ER30 case.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan–China trade

This paper examines CO₂ emissions embodied in Japan–China trade. Besides directly quantifying the flow of CO₂ emissions between the two countries by using a traditional input–output (IO) model, this study also estimates the effect of bilateral trade to CO₂ emissions by scenario analysis. The time series of quantifications indicate that CO₂ emissions embodied in exported goods from Japan to China increased overall from 1990 to 2000. The exported CO₂ emissions from China to Japan greatly increased in the first half of the 1990s. However, by 2000, the amount of emissions had reduced from 1995 levels. Regardless, there was a net export of CO₂ emissions from China to Japan during 1990–2000. The scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade has helped the reduction of CO₂ emissions. On average, the Chinese economy was confirmed to be much more carbon-intensive than Japan. The regression analysis shows a significant but not perfect correlation between the carbon intensities at the sector level of the two countries. In terms of CO₂ emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry could benefit from learning Japanese technologies that produce lower carbon intensities.     

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

Implications of high energy prices for energy system and emissions—The response from an energy model for Germany

Against the background of strongly increasing prices for primary energy carriers we examine how trends towards high energy prices could affect the development of the German energy system, the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions as well as costs. With the IKARUS bottom-up time-step model we look at a scenario with steadily increasing prices and a price shock scenario, both compared to a moderate price scenario. The results show that high prices lead to a significant reduction of the total primary energy supply and also structural changes of primary energy supply with less oil and natural gas and a noticeable increase of renewables. The corresponding cumulated CO₂ emission reduction for the period 2005–2030 is in the range of 830–1310 Mt or 4.1–6.4% as compared to the reference scenario. In the high price scenario there is a continuous additional decrease of energy demand and emissions while in the price shock scenario we find a temporary minimum around 2015 and subsequently a remarkable relaxation towards the reference scenario. Due to technical measures in the model the extra system costs caused by higher prices are reduced by 65–75 billion _€2000${€}_{2000}$ for the period 2005–2030.     

Effects of carbon taxes on different industries by fuzzy goal programming: A case study of the petrochemical-related industries,Taiwan

Implementation of a carbon tax is one of the major ways to mitigate CO₂ emission. However, blanket taxes applied to all industries in a country might not always be fair or successful in CO₂ reduction. This study aims to evaluate the effects of carbon taxes on different industries, and meanwhile to find an optimal carbon tax scenario for Taiwan's petrochemical industry. A fuzzy goal programming approach, integrated with gray prediction and input–output theory, is used to construct a model for simulating the CO₂ reduction capacities and economic impacts of three different tax scenarios. Results indicate that the up-stream industries show improved CO₂ reduction while the down-stream industries fail to achieve their reduction targets. Moreover, under the same reduction target (i.e. return the CO₂ emission amount to year 2000 level by 2020), scenario SWE induces less impact than FIN and EU on industrial GDP. This work provides a valuable approach for researches on model construction and CO₂ reduction, since it applies the gray envelop prediction to determine the boundary values of the fuzzy goal programming model, and furthermore it can take the economic interaction among industries into consideration.     

Hydrogen energy deployment in decarbonizing transportation sector using multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming — A Shanxi case study

Peaking CO₂ emissions and reaching carbon neutrality create a major role for hydrogen in the transportation field where decarbonization is difficult. Shanxi, as a microcosm of China in the systematic transformation of energy end-use consumption, is selected to investigate the hydrogen energy development forecast for decarbonization in the transportation sector. Multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming (NLP) model is established to analyze hydrogen energy deployment in varied periods and regions under minimum environmental, energy and economic objectives, to obtain CO₂ emission reduction potential. Results reveal that green hydrogen contributes most to low-carbon hydrogen development strategies. In high-hydrogen demand scenarios, carbon emission reduction potential is significantly higher under environmental objectives, estimated at 297.68 × 10⁴–848.12 × 10⁴ tons (2025–2035). The work provides a strategy to forecast hydrogen energy deployment for transportation decarbonization, being of vital significant guide for planning of hydrogen energy transportation in other regions.     

Co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in a developing country

In this paper, we examine the co-benefits of reducing CO₂ emissions in Thailand during 2005–2050 in terms of local pollutant emissions as well as the role of renewable-, biomass- and nuclear-energy. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction policy on energy security of the country. The analyses are based on a long term energy system model of Thailand using the MARKAL framework. The study shows that the power sector would account for the largest share (over 60%) in total CO₂ emission reduction followed by the industrial and transport sectors. Under the CO₂ emission reduction target of 30%, there would be a reduction in SO₂ emission by 43% from the base case level. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports in the country during 2005–2050 would be reduced in the range of over 16 thousand PJ to 26 thousand PJ from the base case emission level. Under the CO₂ emission reduction targets, the primary energy supply system would be diversified towards lower use of coal and higher use of natural gas, biomass and nuclear fuels.     

Comprehensive evaluation of industrial CO2 emission (1989–2004) in Taiwan by input–output structural decomposition

Taiwan currently emits approximately 1% of the world's CO₂—ranking it 22nd among nations. Herein, we use the input–output (I–O) structural decomposition method to examine the changes in CO₂ emission over a 15-year period. By decomposing the CO₂ emission changes into nine factors for the periods of 1989–1994, 1994–1999, and 1999–2004, we have identified the key factors causing the emission changes, as well as the most important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. The 5-year increment with the largest increase of CO₂ emission was that of 1999–2004, due to the rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the decomposition, the industrial energy coefficient and the CO₂ emission factors were identified as the most important parameters for the determination of the highway, petrochemical materials, iron and steel, the commercial sector, and electric machinery as the major sources of increased CO₂ emission during the past 15 years. From 1989 to 2004, the level of exports and the level of domestic final demand were the largest contributors to the increase in the total increment of CO₂ change. During 1989–2004, the industrial energy coefficient and CO₂ emission factors, being minimally significant during 1989–1994, became extremely important, joining the domestic final demand and the level of exports factors as the major causes of the increase increment of CO₂. This indicates a heavy reliance upon high-energy (and CO₂) intensity for Taiwanese industries; therefore, continuous efforts to improve energy intensity and fuel mix toward lower carbon are important for CO₂ reduction, especially for the electricity and power generation sectors. Relevant strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from major industries are also highlighted.     

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

In order to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM–UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO₂ emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.     

“Green” path from fossil-based to hydrogen economy: An overview of carbon-neutral technologies

While the dominant role of hydrogen in a sustainable energy future is widely accepted, the strategies for the transition from fossil-based to hydrogen economy are still actively debated. This paper emphasizes the role of carbon-neutral technologies and fuels during the transition period. To satisfy the world's growing appetite for energy and keep our planet healthy, at least 10 TW (or terawatt) of carbon-free power has to be produced by mid-century. Three prominent options discussed in the literature include: decarbonization of fossil energy, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources. These options are analyzed in this paper with a special emphasis on the role of hydrogen as a carbon-free energy carrier. In particular, the authors compare various fossil decarbonization strategies and evaluate the potential of nuclear and renewable energy resources to meet the 10 TW target. An overview of state-of-the-art technologies for production of carbon-free energy carriers and transportation fuels, and the assessment of their commercial potential is provided. It is shown that neither of these three options alone could provide 10 TW of carbon-neutral power without major changes in the existing infrastructure, and/or technological breakthroughs in many areas, and/or a considerable environmental risk. The authors propose a scenario for the transition from current fossil-based to hydrogen economy that includes two key elements: (i) changing the fossil decarbonization strategy from one based on CO₂ sequestration to one that involves sequestration and/or utilization of solid carbon, and (ii) producing carbon-neutral synthetic fuels from bio-carbon and hydrogen generated from water using carbon-free sources (nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal). This strategy would allow taking advantage of the existing fuel infrastructure without an adverse environmental impact, and it would secure a smooth carbon-neutral transition from fossil-based to future hydrogen economy.     

Will a radical transport pricing reform jeopardize the ambitious EU climate change objectives?

This paper examines the effects of replacing current fuel taxes by a system of taxes that account better for all the different external costs of the different transport modes. One of the important implications of this reform is that current fuel taxes are decreased to a level of 80 euro/ton of CO₂ but that the mileage related taxes on car and truck use increase. Using the TREMOVE model for the transport sector of 31 European countries, one finds that the volume of transport will decrease because current taxes on transport are too low compared to overall external costs. Overall CO₂ emissions will decrease slightly. Using the MARKAL–TIMES model for the Belgian energy sector, putting all sectors and technologies on equal footing shows that a fuel tax reform makes that it is not cost efficient to require large CO₂ emission reductions in the transport sector and that traditional car technologies will continue to dominate the car market in 2020–2030.     

Estimation of the potential for reduced greenhouse gas emission in North-East Russia: A comparison of energy use in mining,mineral processing and residential heating in Kiruna and Kirovsk-Apatity

The energy demand at Murmansk Oblast in North-East Russia is covered at 60% by fossil fuels and at 40% by electricity. This study estimates the potential for reduction of fossil fuel consumption and CO₂-emissions at Murmansk Oblast. The study focus on the municipalities of Apatity and Kirovsk and the apatite ore mining company Apatit JSC . The potential for energy efficiency, reduced fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is estimated by comparison with the of city Kiruna in Northern Sweden, with a climate similar to that of North-East Russia, and with the iron ore mining company LKAB. This study shows that the potential for reduced CO₂-emissions is about 630,700 tons CO₂ annually in the municipalities of Apatity and Kirovsk or 6.3 tons of CO₂ per capita, Apatit JSC not included. These results applied on Murmansk Oblast gives a potential for reduced CO₂-emissions of about 6 Mtons annually in the municipalities together. The specific energy consumption at Apatit JSC is 6–7 times per ton product compared to LKAB. The mining has 4 times higher specific energy consumption per ton raw ore compared to LKAB.     

Biomass-fired cogeneration systems with CO2 capture and storage

In this study, we estimate and analyze the CO₂ mitigation costs of large-scale biomass-fired cogeneration technologies with CO₂ capture and storage. The CO₂ mitigation cost indicates the minimum economic incentive required (e.g. in the form of a carbon tax) to make the cost of a less carbon intensive system equal to the cost of a reference system. If carbon (as CO₂) is captured from biomass-fired energy systems, the systems could in principle be negative CO₂ emitting energy systems. CO₂ capture and storage from energy systems however, leads to reduced energy efficiency, higher investment costs, and increased costs of end products compared with energy systems in which CO₂ is vented. Here, we have analyzed biomass-fired cogeneration plants based on steam turbine technology (CHP-BST) and integrated gasification combined cycle technology (CHP-BIGCC). Three different scales were considered to analyze the scale effects. Logging residues was assumed as biomass feedstock. Two methods were used to estimate and compare the CO₂ mitigation cost. In the first method, the cogenerated power was credited based on avoided power production in stand-alone plants and in the second method the same reference output was produced from all systems. Biomass-fired CHP-BIGCC with CO₂ capture and storage was found very energy and emission efficient and cost competitive compared with other conversion systems.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

The analysis of CO2 emission reduction using an ExSS model of Guangdong province in China

This paper studied the CO₂ emission scenarios of Guangdong province in 2020 and divided the CO₂ emission increment and reductions into various departments and driving factors. Based on the Extended Snapshot model, two CO₂ emission scenarios, Business as Usual (BaU) and Counter Measure (CM) scenario were constructed. CM scenario was completed by using reduction technical measures to achieve the reduction emission goal. The results showed that the amount of CO₂ emission is less 189 million tonne in 2020 CM scenario than BaU scenario. By decomposing the emission reduction measures in CM scenario, it showed that the main means to reduce CO₂ emissions were the industrial structure adjustment, the advanced energy efficiency and the power sector structure adjustment, and the emission reduction contribution rates were 36.85%, 34.55% and 21.74%, respectively. The analysis results could be recommended to the government to make the low-carbon development policy and path.     

Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO₂ emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO₂ and cost (CO₂-cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO₂ emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22–28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.     

A comparative analysis of energy and CO2 taxes on the primary energy mix for electricity generation

In many countries, economies are moving towards internalization of external costs of greenhouse‐gas (GHG) emissions. This can best be achieved by either imposing additional taxes or by using an emission‐permit‐trading scheme. The electricity sector is under scrutiny in the allocation of emission‐reduction objectives, not only because it is a large homogeneous target, but also because of the obvious emission‐reduction potential by decreasing power generation based on carbon‐intensive fuels. In this paper, we discuss the impact of a primary‐energy tax and a CO₂ tax on the dispatching strategy in power generation. In a case study for the Belgian power‐generating context, several tax levels are investigated and the impact on the optimal dispatch is simulated. The impact of the taxes on the power demand or on the investment strategies is not considered. As a conclusion, we find that a CO₂ tax is more effective than a primary‐energy tax. Both taxes accomplish an increased generation efficiency in the form of a promotion of combined‐cycle gas‐fired units over coal‐fired units. The CO₂ tax adds an incentive for fuel switching which can be achieved by altering the merit order of power plants or by switching to a fuel with a lower carbon content within a plant. For the CO₂ tax, 13 €/tonCO₂ is withheld as the optimal value which results in an emission reduction of 13% of the electricity‐related GHG emissions in the Belgian power context of 2000. A tax higher than 13 €/tonCO₂ does not contribute to the further reduction of GHGs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.