European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today's level.     

Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49–88 Mb/d) in 2076–2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.     

Natural gas consumption and economic growth: A panel investigation of 67 countries

This study examines the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth for a panel of 67 countries within a multivariate framework over the period 1992–2005. Pedroni’s 24 and 26 heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The results of the panel vector error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run.     

Multi-criteria evaluation of natural gas resources

Geologically estimated natural gas resources are 500 Tcm. With the advance in geological science increase of estimated resources is expected. Natural gas reserves in 2000 have been proved to be around 165 Tcm. As it is known the reserves are subject to two constraints, namely: capital invested in the exploration and drilling technologies used to discover new reserves. The natural gas scarcity factor, i.e. ratio between available reserves and natural gas consumption, is around 300 years for the last 50 years. The new discovery of natural gas reserves has given rise to a new energy strategy based on natural gas.     

Production of hydrogen by methane catalytic decomposition over Ni–Cu–Fe/Al2O3 catalyst

Catalysts with high nickel concentrations 75%Ni–12%Cu/Al₂O₃, 70%Ni–10%Cu–10%Fe/Al₂O₃ were prepared by mechanochemical activation and their catalytic properties were studied in methane decomposition. It was shown that modification of the 75%Ni–12%Cu/Al₂O₃ catalyst with iron made it possible to increase optimal operating temperatures to 700–750 °C while maintaining excellent catalyst stability. The formation of finely dispersed Ni–Cu–Fe alloy particles makes the catalysts stable and capable of operating at 700–750 °C in methane decomposition to hydrogen and carbon nanofibers. The yield of carbon nanofibers on the modified 70%Ni–10%Cu–10%Fe/Al₂O₃ catalyst at 700–750 °C was 150–160 g/g. The developed hydrogen production method is also efficient when natural gas is used as the feedstock. An installation with a rotating reactor was developed for production of hydrogen and carbon nanofibers from natural gas. It was shown that the 70%Ni–10%Cu–10%Fe/Al₂O₃ catalyst could operate in this installation for a prolonged period of time. The hydrogen concentration at the reactor outlet exceeded 70 mol%.     

Exploring the production of natural gas through the lenses of the ACEGES model

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recoverable resources, the ‘Collective View’ and ‘Golden Age’ Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The ‘Golden Age’ Scenario suggests significant ‘jumps’ of natural gas production – important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies.     

Economic evaluation of the dual mode CAES solution for increased wind energy contribution in autonomous island networks

Wind parks operating in autonomous island grids, such as those encountered in the Aegean Archipelago, face considerable wind energy curtailments, owed to the inability of local electricity networks to absorb the entire wind energy production. On the other hand, plans promoting the natural gas-based electricity generation in big islands (such as Crete) question the future of wind energy. To recover wind energy curtailments and benefit from the introduction of natural gas, the adoption of compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems suggests an appreciable energy solution. Furthermore, to improve the economic performance of the proposed system, it is decided that guaranteed energy amounts should be delivered to the local grid during peak demand periods. In an effort to obtain favourable negotiation conditions – for the selling price of energy delivered – and also improve the economic performance of the system, a dual mode CAES operation is currently examined. Proceeding to the economic evaluation of dual mode CAES configurations that ensure maximum wind energy recovery, the feasibility of the proposed system may be validated. Lower electricity production costs and considerable reduction of fuel consumption achieved – in comparison with the requirements of conventional peak demand power units – illustrate the system's advantages.     

Turkey's natural gas policy

This article deals with natural gas policy of Turkey. Natural gas became important in the 1980s. In recent years, natural gas consumption has become the fastest growing primary energy source in Turkey. Natural gas becomes an increasingly central component of energy consumption in Turkey. Current gas production in Turkey meets 3% of the domestic consumption requirements. Natural gas consumption levels in Turkey have witnessed a dramatic increase, from 4.25 Bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1991 to 21.19 Bcm in 2003. Turkish natural gas is projected to increase dramatically in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be industry and power plants. Turkey has chosen natural gas as the preferred fuel for the massive amount of new power plant capacity to be added in coming years. Turkey has supplied main natural gas need from Russian Federation; however, Turkmen and Iranian gas represent economically sound alternatives. Turkey is in a strategically advantageous position in terms of its natural gas market. It can import gas from a number of countries and diversify its sources. Turkey's motivation for restructuring its natural gas ownership and markets stems from its desire to fulfill EU accession prerequisites in the energy sector.     

Production of synthesis gas by co-gasifying coke and natural gas in a fixed bed reactor

The production of synthesis gas has gained increasing importance because of its use as raw material for various industrial syntheses. In this paper synthesis gas generation during the reaction of a coal/methane with steam and oxygen, which is called the co-gasification of coal and natural gas, was investigated using a laboratory scale fixed bed reactor. It is found that about 95% methane conversion and 80% steam decomposition have been achieved when the space velocity of input gas (oxygen and methane) is less than 200 h⁻¹ and reaction temperature about 1000 °C. The product gas contains about 95% carbon monoxide and hydrogen. The reaction system is near the equilibrium when leaving the reactor.     

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.     

Economics of secondary energy from GTL regarding natural gas reserves of Bolivia

This work aims the economics and the viability of Natural Gas Industrialization in Bolivia, by producing secondary fuels like gas to liquid (GTL)-diesel from natural gas (cleaner than the oil by-product), looking for a clean development with that environmentally well energy using this GTL process. Bolivia has resources that could fulfill these secondary energy resources from GTL. It is possible to process 30 MCMpd of gas obtaining profits from the gas and also from the liquid hydrocarbons that are found in it. Then the Bolivian GTL would present the following advantages: it would export diesel and/or gasoline and would not have to import it anymore.; the exportations of GTL-FT would reach 35 Mbpy, acquiring competitive prices; it would increase productive jobs not only due to the GTL itself, but also from secondary economy linked to GTL market; the use of GTL-FT diesel would bring a “cleaner” environment especially in the urban areas; finally, from the macroeconomic perspective, the investment in the plant construction and supporting works would generate a great amount of job offers.     

Hybrid filtration combustion of natural gas and coal

Rich and ultrarich combustion of natural gas in a porous medium composed of aleatory coal particles and alumina spheres was studied experimentally to evaluate the suitability of the concept for hydrogen and syngas production. Temperature, velocity and chemical products of the combustion waves were recorded experimentally in two stages: (1) natural gas in an inert porous medium at filtration velocities of 12, 15 and 19 cm/s for equivalence ratios (φ) from φ = 1.0 to φ = 3.8; (2) natural gas in a porous medium composed of coal and alumina particles for a range of volume coal fractions from 0 to 75% at φ = 2.3, and a filtration velocity of 15 cm/s. It was observed that the flame temperatures and hydrogen yields were increased with the increase of filtration velocity in inert porous media. In hybrid porous media the flame temperature decreased with an increase of coal fraction, and hydrogen and carbon monoxide were dominant partial oxidation products. Syngas yield in hybrid filtration combustion was found to be essentially higher than for the inert porous medium case. The maximum hydrogen conversion for the hybrid coal and alumina bed was ∼55% for a volumetric coal content of 75%.     

Fuel-flexible operation of a solid oxide fuel cell with Sr0.8La0.2TiO3 support

Solid oxide fuel cells with Sr_0.8La_0.2TiO₃ anode-side supports, Ni- Sm-doped ceria adhesion layer, Ni- Y₂O₃-stabilized ZrO₂ (YSZ) anode active layer, YSZ electrolyte, and La_0.8Sr_0.2MnO₃(LSM)–YSZ cathode are described. These cells are stable in simulated natural gas at current densities as low as 0.2 A cm⁻². This represents much-improved stability against coking in natural gas, compared with conventional Ni–YSZ anode-supported SOFCs which rapidly coke, even at higher current densities. Cell operation in H₂ fuel with 50–100 ppm, H₂S results in an initial decrease in cell power density, but no long-term degradation occurs and full recovery to the initial performance level is observed after dry H₂ fuel flow is restored. Degradation is not observed during or after seven redox cycles between H₂ and air.     

Potential of practical implementation of rice straw-based power generation in Thailand

This paper uses life cycle assessment to evaluate the potential of rice straw power plant implementation in Thailand in terms of GHG emission savings from avoided open burning and from implementing rice straw power production, which can substitute that from natural gas. Annually, 8.5–14.3 Mt rice straw burning contributes 5.0–8.6 MtCO₂-eq which could be converted to 786–1325 MW of power, yielding a total greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of 7.8–13.2 MtCO₂-eq. Moreover, 1090–1837 Mm³ of natural gas could be substituted annually. A total of 25 provinces in central Thailand have potential to generate electricity with a total capacity of 210–292 MW (plant efficiency 20–27%), resulting in an annual GHG emission savings of 2.3–2.6 MtCO₂-eq, and with a provincial capacity of over 20 MW in 6 provinces, 10–20 MW in 7 provinces, 1–10 MW in 6 provinces and less than 1 MW in 6 provinces.     

Development of membrane reformer system for highly efficient hydrogen production from natural gas

A membrane reformer is composed of a steam reformer equipped with palladium-based alloy membrane modules and can perform steam reforming reaction of natural gas and hydrogen separation processes simultaneously, without shift converters and purification systems. We have developed a membrane reformer system with nominal hydrogen production capacity of 40 Nm³/h. The system has demonstrated the potential advantages of the membrane reformer: simple system configuration as benefited by single-step production of high-purity hydrogen (99.999% level), compactness, and high-energy efficiency of 70–76%. We are promoting development towards commercialization of the membrane reformer technology, focusing on further improvement of energy efficiency, proof of long-term durability and reliability, and establishment of system engineering technologies. The target of our current project is to develop a membrane reformer system that can produce 99.99% or higher-purity hydrogen from natural gas at a rate of 40 Nm³/h with hydrogen production energy efficiency of over 80%.     

Hydrogen quality for fuel cell vehicles – A modeling study of the sensitivity of impurity content in hydrogen to the process variables in the SMR–PSA pathway

As fuel cell vehicles approach wide-scale deployment, the issue of the quality of hydrogen dispensed to the vehicles has become increasingly important. The various factors that must be considered include the effects of different contaminants on fuel cell performance and durability, the production and purification of hydrogen to meet fuel quality guidelines, and the associated costs of providing hydrogen of that quality to the fuel cell vehicles. In this paper, we describe the development of a model to track the formation and removal of several contaminants over the various steps of hydrogen production by steam-methane reforming (SMR) of natural gas, followed by purification by pressure-swing adsorption (PSA). We have used the model to evaluate the effects of setting varying levels of these contaminants in the product hydrogen on the production/purification efficiency, hydrogen recovery, and the cost of the hydrogen. The model can be used to track contaminants such as CO₂, CO, N₂, CH₄, and H₂S in the process. The results indicate that a suggested specification of 0.2 ppm CO would limit the maximum hydrogen recovery from the PSA under typical design and operating conditions. The steam-to-carbon ratio and the process pressure are found to have a significant impact on the process efficiency. Varying the CO specification from 0.1 to 1 ppm is not expected to affect the cost of hydrogen significantly, although the cost of gas analysis to comply with such stringent requirements may add 2–10 cents/kg to the cost of hydrogen.     

A liquefied energy chain for transport and utilization of natural gas for power production with CO2 capture and storage – Part 1

A novel transport chain for stranded natural gas utilized for power production with CO₂ capture and storage is developed. It includes an offshore section, a combined gas carrier, and an onshore integrated receiving terminal. Due to utilization of the cold exergy both in the offshore and onshore processes, and combined use of the gas carrier, the transport chain is both energy and cost effective. In this paper, the liquefied energy chain (LEC) is explained, including novel processes for both the offshore field site and onshore market site. In the offshore section, natural gas (NG) is liquefied to LNG by liquid carbon dioxide (LCO₂) and liquid inert nitrogen (LIN), which are used as cold carriers. The LNG is transported in a combined gas carrier to the receiving terminal where it is used as a cooling agent to liquefy CO₂ and nitrogen. The LCO₂ and LIN are transported offshore using the same combined carrier. Pinch and Exergy Analyses are used to determine the optimal offshore and onshore processes and the best transport conditions. The exergy efficiency for a thermodynamically optimized process is 87% and 71% for the offshore and onshore processes, respectively, yielding a total efficiency of 52%. The offshore process is self-supported with power and can operate with few units of rotating equipment and without flammable refrigerants. The loss of natural gas due to power generation for the energy requirements in the LEC processes is roughly one third of the loss in a conventional transport chain for stranded natural gas with CO₂ sequestration. The LEC has several configurations and can be used for small scale (<0.25 MTPA LNG) to large-scale (>5 MTPA LNG) transport. In the example in this paper, the total costs for the simple LEC including transport of natural gas to a 400 MW_net power plant and return of 85% of the corresponding carbon as CO₂ for a total sailing distance of 24 h are 58.1 EUR/tonne LNG excluding or including the cost of power. The total power requirements are 319 kWh/tonne, hence the energy costs are 31.9 EUR/tonne LNG adding up to 90.0 EUR/tonne LNG. The exergy efficiency for this energy chain including power production and CO₂ capture is 46.4% with a total cost of 20.4 EUR/MWh for the produced electricity. The total emissions (in CO₂ equivalents) in the chain are 1–1.5% of the transported CO₂.     

Natural Gas requirement by fertilizer sector in India

Natural Gas is one of the important fossil fuel energy resources in India. Anchor customers of natural gas are the power sector and nitrogenous fertilizer. It is the cleanest form of energy derived from the fossil fuel basket. Because of clean combustion characteristics, natural gas is the fuel choice for many sections of Indian industry. The demand for natural gas will grow with time. Currently natural gas accounts for 7% of the primary energy consumption of India. The Government of India has its commitment to food security and energy security. The policies are directed toward greater allocation of natural gas on a priority basis to fertilizer and the power sector. Natural gas is the main and preferred feedstock for urea manufacture. This paper analyzes and estimates projected demand of natural gas in the next two decades. The demand projections have been reviewed in the context of changing government policies regarding the fertilizer industry, such as farm gate price regulation and self-sufficiency level of indigenous urea production. The current growth plan of natural gas supply and evolving supply scenario in the future are also considered in the study.     

Lifecycle analysis of different urban transport options for Bangladesh

Once again, sustained high oil prices are forcing policy makers in oil importing countries to consider alternatives to oil products as transportation fuels. Unlike in the past, advancements in technology, relative success of some experiments and increased familiarity among and acceptance by the public of some alternatives indicate a higher likelihood of success. In particular, natural gas offers a couple of the best options as compressed natural gas (CNG) and chemical conversion of natural gas into diesel (gas-to-liquids, GTL). These options are likely to be most attractive in countries that have cheap access to natural gas. We compare lifetime costs of several individual transportation options for Bangladesh, an oil importer with natural gas reserves. The results are then used to inform the natural gas policy debate in the country. Assuming a natural gas price of $1.5 per million Btu, both the CNG and GTL options are competitive with conventional gasoline/diesel cars if the oil price stays higher than $35–40 per barrel. If natural gas price increases after new upstream developments, CNG becomes less attractive while GTL remains competitive up to $2.5 if capital costs of GTL facilities decline as expected. Under a government policy push (lower discounting), the breakeven price of oil falls to $30–35 per barrel.     

加速发展天然气产业是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一

加速发展天然气产业应是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一。由非常规天然气带动的天然气"革命"为世界天然气产业发展创造了有利的资源条件,全球天然气过剩,价格下降。目前我国天然气在一次能源结构中所占的比例仍然过低,只达到世界水平的1/4左右,而提升天然气的消费比例与提高综合能效具有正相关关系。综合考虑,"十二五"末我国天然气在一次能源消费中的比例应达到12%～15%,甚至更多一些。21世纪以来我国常规天然气储产量增长迅速,新增探明天然气储量已连续7年保持在5000×108m3以上。预计2020年我国天然气年产量将达到2000×108m3,2030年前后可达到2500×108～3000×108m3,加上从国外进口的天然气(包括沿海进口的LNG)和煤制气的发展,天然气消费总量将达4500×108m3,占国内一次能源消费比重可望有一个大幅度的提升。"十二五"期间我国煤层气开采可望首先获得突破性进展,而页岩气正处于勘探开发起步的关键时期,国家在加强领导的同时要加大扶持力度。天然气储运工程对于天然气产业和市场的发展非常重要,"十二五"期间成立中国天然气管道总公司的条件已经成熟。