在香山地震预报发展战略研讨会上的发言

这次在香山召开的地震预报发展战略研讨会可以说是一次地震预报攻关的战略研讨会。香山会议应该是一个科学会堂,将对今后产生重大作用,可以载入史册。这一次地震预报战略攻关研讨,从会议的论文集可以看出,大家准备得很认真。今天下午听了院士、专家的发言,也是高水平的。地震预报是一个尚未攻克的世界性科学难题,同时也是政府、社会的迫切需要。地震预报这个问题有人说不好搞,有人说好搞;有人说是不成功,有人说是成功。我想我们还是要用事实说话。     

中国地震学会地震预报委员会成立大会在太原召开

中国地震学会地震预报委员会成立大会暨中国地震预报战略研讨会于1996年1月13—15日在太原市召开。28个单位近70名学者和代表出席了会议。中国地震学会副理事长马宗晋院士代表中国地震学会宣布第四届常务理事会第2次会议关于地震前兆专业委员会更名为地震预报专业委员会,任命罗灼礼为主任的决定。罗灼礼主任宣布了本届委员聘任名单。会议共收到专题报告摘要60余篇、会议报告40余篇。马宗晋作了从全球应力场寻求场源关系的报告,梅世蓉论述了板内强震孕育模式与物理预报的可能性。     

加强工程地震工作中热点问题的研究：——国家地震局工程地震青年学术研讨班？

简述了国家地震局工程地震青年学术研讨班的情况，胡聿贤、金严、张国民三位专家分别做了《地震工程学的发展趋势》、《地震危险性分析的若干问题》和《大陆地震成组孕育模型和地震预报问题》的专题报告，青年学员也各自做了重点发言并围绕主题进行深入讨论。同时硬度班提供了一些建议供国家地震局有关部门参考。     

对中国地震预报现状与未来的思考

本文是作者根据自己多年从事地震预报的经历与实践,将我国地震预报的38年历史分为四个阶段,概括了我国地震预报的主要进展和成就,指出地震预报的难点及我国地震预报的思路和技术上存在的几个问题,最后对我国地震预报发展战略提出思考。作者的观点和建议可供地震主管部门的领导和地震分析预报人员参考     

对中国地震预报现状与未来的思考

作者根据其多年从事地震预报的经历和实践，将我国地震预报的36年历史分为4个阶段，概括了我国地震预报的主要进展和成就，指出地震预报的难点及我国地震预报在思路和技术上存在的几个问题，最后是对我国地震预报发展战略的思考。     

地震预测战略中若干问题的讨论——纪念为地震事业奉献一生的梅世蓉先生座谈会

2018年是梅世蓉先生诞辰90周年。为了纪念这位为地震预报事业奉献一生的前辈,中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会特别邀请马瑾院士为中国地震预报论坛摘要专辑撰稿"地震预测战略中若干问题的讨论"。愿我们继续发扬前辈光荣传统,不断推进地震预报这个世界难题的解决。     

美国地震预报评定委员会成立

美国《地质时代》1980年4月号刊登美国地震预报评定委员会成立的消息称:为了协助美国地质调查局局长正式发布地震预报,美国成立了地震预报评定委员会。该委员会由8名地学专家组成,他们将审阅其他人员收集的数据资料,并向局长建议是否有必要发布正式地震预报。美地质调查局地震研究办公室主任韦森1979年1月在洛杉矶的一次会议上说,地震预报评定委员会是使地震预报走向现实的重要一环,但他认为“要准确地作出科学的预报,指     

全国地震科学新技术发展战略第一次研讨会侧记

在中国共产党十三大改革开放方针的指引下,为使我国地震科学沿着民主化、科学化、制度化的轨道发展,国家地震局政策研究室于1987年11月10日至14日在广东省中山市召开了全国地震科学新技术发展战略第一次研讨会。——地震预报发展战略研讨会。国家地震局周锐副局长在会上作了重要讲话。参加会议的有国家地震局的有关职能部门、直属研究所和部分省地震局的负责同志和专家共28人,国家科委政策局也派员参加会议并讲了话。 周锐副局长在讲话中指出:这次会议是在改革开放的背景下召开的。现代科学技术突飞     

地震预报发展战略在于创新

地震预报发展战略在于创新论述了：关于对地震预报异议的评议;地震预报的发展战略在于创新;避免误区、盲区要成为地震界的公德;为地震预报探索者提供公益性的信息与工具平台;关于经验性地震预报。     

在苏联杜尚别召开的地震预报和减轻地震损失国际学术讨论会概况

由联合国救灾署、联合国开发计划署和苏联共同主办、联合国教科文组织参加的“地震预报和减轻地震损失国际学术讨论会”于1986年10月8日至14日在苏联塔吉克加盟共和国首府杜尚别举行。近百名苏联地震学家和地震工程师以及来自其它31个国家的42名地震学家和地震工程师出席了这次会议。会议涉及了地震预报和减轻地震损失,地震危险性评定和地震灾害控制,地震预报的科学基础,地震预报和地震灾害的杜会、经济及组织问题,成功与不成功的地震预报的实例以及地震预报实验场诸问题。与会专家共宣读了43篇论文、报告,研讨了地震预报和减轻震害工作的现状,对于正在一些国家中进行的国际或国家地震预报实验场的研究工作给予了高度的重视。会议举办了小型书展,安排了与会者参观塔吉克抗震建筑与地震研究所、杜尚别地震台和努列克水电站大坝抗震工程。     

On the synchronism in the events within the core and on the surface of the earth: the changes in the organic world and in the polarity of the geomagnetic field in the phanerozoic

The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes in the organic world.     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

太平洋中部地磁台11年周期变化的研究

综合APIA、HONOLULU、PAMATAI 3个地磁台三分量的11年周期变化的形态后,可定性地提出该变化源于内场。如内源为核幔边界的电涡流,则其中心点应位于3台之间。     

On the use of the autocorrelation method for estimating the depth to the magnetic basement

The depth to the top of magnetic dykes can be estimated from total field aeromagnetic data using the relation between the depth to magnetic sources and the autocorrelation function of magnetic data. By using synthetic anomalies we show that in the ideal case, depth can be determined to an accuracy of 10% or better, when the anomaly sources are two-dimensional dykes. However, the estimated depths depend on the width of the dykes. The estimated depth is about 0.6 times the actual depth to the top of thin dykes, and around the true depth for thick dykes having width-to-depth ratio around 3. The depth is considerably overestimated for very thick dykes (e.g., contacts, which is a special case of the thick dyke). Thus, the autocorrelation method requires that the width-to-depth ratio of the dyke is estimated independently to correctly estimate the depths. Alternatively, it must be assumed that the width-to-depth ratio for the two-dimensional source body is between 1.5 and 4.     

固体潮的地震预测研究与地球动力学研究之分析比较

本文分析了现行固体潮地震研究中的历史影响,对比研究了固体潮地震预测研究和固体潮地球动力学研究二者在振动频率、振动源体积、传输距离与介质等方面的地球物理特点与本质区别,强调了固体潮地震预测研究中最根本的工作是建立地震预测的目标和基本概念.     

On the Mechanism of the Secular Tidal Acceleration of the Solid Inner Core and the Viscosity of the Liquid Core

As is known, the secular deceleration of the Earth's diurnal rotation is explained mainly by the tidal friction in the ocean. Below we consider this mechanism in some detail, taking into account also elastic deformations of the mantle under the action of ocean loading and the interaction between the tide-generating body, ocean tidal wave, liquid outer core, and solid inner core. It is shown that elastic displacements of the core-mantle boundary under the action of ocean loading are of about the same amplitude and phase as the elastic loading displacements of the Earth's outer surface. As a result, side by side with the mechanism of secular deceleration of diurnal rotation of the mantle, there are also (1) the opposite mechanism of secular acceleration of diurnal rotation of the outer liquid core and of the solid inner core and (2) the mechanism of excitation of differential rotation in the liquid core. Taking these effects into account, we compare theoretical and modern observed data on the eastward drift of the solid inner core. It is shown that the best agreement may be obtained if the turbulent viscosity of the liquid core is about 2 × 10 ³ Poise     

Macrobenthic communities of the Pechora Sea: the past and the present on the threshhold of the prirazlomnoye oil-field exploitation

On data of bottom sampling, carried out by means of grab, trawl and underwater photography in August–September of 1993 in the area of the Pechora Sea, quantitative regularities of macrobenthos distribution are described for the ecological monitoring purposes. Maps of -biodiversity and biomass indices, bottom communities and trophic zones, singled out by dominant method, are presented. Assessment of structure changes of the investigated area bottom communities during the last 60–70 years is fulfilled. It is shown that the described communities on the whole are of natural undisturbed character and that the revealed changes are within the natural fluctuations in the abundance of benthic populations or may be interpreted in terms of methodical differences in the data analysis and generalization by different authors.     

动水压力对深水桥墩地震响应影响的研究综述

地震激励下处于深水中的桥墩和周围水体的相互作用将对桥梁结构的动力响应产生较大影响。首先对地震作用下水-桥墩的相互作用理论做了概括,给出了动水压力对桥墩的作用效应及各自的适用范围;对主要的三种考虑流固耦合效应的分析方法做了对比,探讨了地震作用下影响水-结构相互作用的主要因素,并对今后的研究提出了建议。     

On the maintenance of the axisymmetric part of the flow in the atmosphere

Summary The maintenance of the axisymmetric component of the flow in the atmosphere is investigated by means of a steady-state, quasi-geostrophic formulation of the meteorological equations. It is shown that the meridional variations in the time-averaged axisymmetric variables can be expressed as the sum of three contributions, one being due to the eddy heat transport, another to the eddy momentum transport, and a third to the convective-radiative equilibrium temperature which enters the problem through the specification of a Newtonian form of diabatic heating. The contributions by the large scale eddies are evaluated through the use of observed values for the eddy heat and momentum transports.The contributions from each of the three forcing mechanisms to the temperature and zonal wind fields are invstigated individually and found to be of about equal importance. The sum of the three contributions are also presented for the temperature, the zonal wind, the stream function associated with the mean meridional circulation and the corresponding vertical motion. Although the results fail to reproduce the main observed features of the lower stratosphere, they are found to be in good agreement with observations in the middle latitude troposphere. At any pressure level, for example, the computed mean zonal wind has a jet-like profile and the axis of the jet is found to slope to the south with height, as observed in the atmosphere.Based in part on a thesis submitted by the first author as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan. — Publication No. 194 from the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan.     

环太平洋俯冲带内双地震带及其成因机制研究进展

俯冲带作为地球最为庞大的循环系统的重要组成部分,已成为地球科学的研究热点之一.很多俯冲带,特别是环太平洋俯冲带内的中深源地震,在空间上呈明显的分层分布,并且各层地震具有不同的震源机制,即所谓的双地震带现象.本文简要介绍了环太平洋双地震带形态特征与震源机制的空间分布,并回顾了双地震带的几种成因模型.根据形态特征和震源机制的差异,中源深度的双地震带可以分为两类,其中,一类双地震带对应上、下二层分别为压缩和张性的地震分布;另一类双地震带的震源分布较浅,且其浅部地震以横向压缩为主.此外,日本本州东北俯冲带的地震分布可能是由三层地震带组成的,而且汤加、伊豆-小笠原地区还发现深源深度的双地震带.通过对双地震带的形态特征以及其热力学条件的研究,人们从抗弯作用、脱水脆化、相变断层等多方面,尝试建立解释双地震带成因的模型.目前,大多数研究利用数值计算结果,结合蛇纹石脱水脆化、相变断层模型,能够不同程度地分别解释中源和深源双地震带成因.不过,这些模型几乎相互独立,并不能同时解释中源和深源双地震带.有人试图尝试用统一模型解释中深源地震成因,例如,先前存在的断层模型,不过该模型还不很具有说服力.也可能是多种因素的联合作用,共同影响着俯冲板内的温度场、应力场分布.