Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku, Japan, and their relationship to episodic tremor and slip

Non-volcanic seismic tremor was discovered in the Nankai trough subduction zone in southwest Japan and subsequently identified in the Cascadia subduction zone. In both locations, tremor is observed to coincide temporally with large, slow slip events on the plate interface downdip of the seismogenic zone. The relationship between tremor and aseismic slip remains uncertain, however, largely owing to difficulty in constraining the source depth of tremor. In southwest Japan, a high quality borehole seismic network allows identification of coherent S-wave (and sometimes P-wave) arrivals within the tremor, whose sources are classified as low-frequency earthquakes. As low-frequency earthquakes comprise at least a portion of tremor, understanding their mechanism is critical to understanding tremor as a whole. Here, we provide strong evidence that these earthquakes occur on the plate interface, coincident with the inferred zone of slow slip. The locations and characteristics of these events suggest that they are generated by shear slip during otherwise aseismic transients, rather than by fluid flow. High pore-fluid pressure in the immediate vicinity, as implied by our estimates of seismic P- and S-wave speeds, may act to promote this transient mode of failure. Low-frequency earthquakes could potentially contribute to seismic hazard forecasting by providing a new means to monitor slow slip at depth.     

Seismology: dynamic triggering of earthquakes

After an earthquake, numerous smaller shocks are triggered over distances comparable to the dimensions of the mainshock fault rupture, although they are rare at larger distances. Here we analyse the scaling of dynamic deformations (the stresses and strains associated with seismic waves) with distance from, and magnitude of, their triggering earthquake, and show that they can cause further earthquakes at any distance if their amplitude exceeds several microstrain, regardless of their frequency content. These triggering requirements are remarkably similar to those measured in the laboratory for inducing dynamic elastic nonlinear behaviour, which suggests that the underlying physics is similar.     

Earthquake slip on oceanic transform faults

Oceanic transform faults are one of the main types of plate boundary, but the manner in which they slip remains poorly understood. Early studies suggested that relatively slow earthquake rupture might be common; moreover, it has been reported that very slow slip precedes some oceanic transform earthquakes, including the 1994 Romanche earthquake. The presence of such detectable precursors would have obvious implications for earthquake prediction. Here we model broadband seismograms of body waves to obtain well-resolved depths and rupture mechanisms for 14 earthquakes on the Romanche and Chain transform faults in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. We found that earthquakes on the longer Romanche transform are systematically deeper than those on the neighbouring Chain transform. These depths indicate that the maximum depth of brittle failure is at a temperature of approximately 600 degrees C in oceanic lithosphere. We find that the body waves from the Romanche 1994 earthquake can be well modelled with relatively deep slip on a single fault, and we use the mechanism and depth of this earthquake to recalculate its source spectrum. The previously reported slow precursor can be explained as an artefact of uncertainties in the assumed model parameters.     

Resonant slow fault slip in subduction zones forced by climatic load stress

Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at subduction plate boundaries often record fault movements similar to earthquakes but much slower, occurring over timescales of approximately 1 week to approximately 1 year. These 'slow slip events' have been observed in Japan, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska and New Zealand. The phenomenon is poorly understood, but several observations hint at the processes underlying slow slip. Although slip itself is silent, seismic instruments often record coincident low-amplitude tremor in a narrow (1-5 cycles per second) frequency range. Also, modelling of GPS data and estimates of tremor location indicate that slip focuses near the transition from unstable ('stick-slip') to stable friction at the deep limit of the earthquake-producing seismogenic zone. Perhaps most intriguingly, slow slip is periodic at several locations, with recurrence varying from 6 to 18 months depending on which subduction zone (or even segment) is examined. Here I show that such periodic slow fault slip may be a resonant response to climate-driven stress perturbations. Fault slip resonance helps to explain why slip events are periodic, why periods differ from place to place, and why slip focuses near the base of the seismogenic zone. Resonant slip should initiate within the rupture zone of future great earthquakes, suggesting that slow slip may illuminate fault properties that control earthquake slip.     

Extent, duration and speed of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake imaged by the Hi-Net array

The disastrous Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was one of the largest ever recorded. The damage potential of such earthquakes depends on the extent and magnitude of fault slip. The first reliable moment magnitude estimate of 9.0 was obtained several hours after the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, but more recent, longer-period, normal-mode analyses have indicated that it had a moment magnitude of 9.3, about 2.5 times larger. Here we introduce a method for directly imaging earthquake rupture that uses the first-arriving compressional wave and is potentially able to produce detailed images within 30 min of rupture initiation. We used the Hi-Net seismic array in Japan as an antenna to map the progression of slip by monitoring the direction of high-frequency radiation. We find that the rupture spread over the entire 1,300-km-long aftershock zone by propagating northward at roughly 2.8 km s(-1) for approximately 8 minutes. Comparisons with the aftershock areas of other great earthquakes indicate that the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake did indeed have a moment magnitude of approximately 9.3. Its rupture, in both duration and extent, is the longest ever recorded.     

Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

Slow-slip events, or 'silent earthquakes', have recently been discovered in a number of subduction zones including the Nankai trough in Japan, Cascadia, and Guerrero in Mexico, but the depths of these events have been difficult to determine from surface deformation measurements. Although it is assumed that these silent earthquakes are located along the plate megathrust, this has not been proved. Slow slip in some subduction zones is associated with non-volcanic tremor, but tremor is difficult to locate and may be distributed over a broad depth range. Except for some events on the San Andreas fault, slow-slip events have not yet been associated with high-frequency earthquakes, which are easily located. Here we report on swarms of high-frequency earthquakes that accompany otherwise silent slips on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii. For the most energetic event, in January 2005, the slow slip began before the increase in seismicity. The temporal evolution of earthquakes is well explained by increased stressing caused by slow slip, implying that the earthquakes are triggered. The earthquakes, located at depths of 7-8 km, constrain the slow slip to be at comparable depths, because they must fall in zones of positive Coulomb stress change. Triggered earthquakes accompanying slow-slip events elsewhere might go undetected if background seismicity rates are low. Detection of such events would help constrain the depth of slow slip, and could lead to a method for quantifying the increased hazard during slow-slip events, because triggered events have the potential to grow into destructive earthquakes.     

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.     

Three-dimensional deformation caused by the Bam, Iran, earthquake and the origin of shallow slip deficit

Our understanding of the earthquake process requires detailed insights into how the tectonic stresses are accumulated and released on seismogenic faults. We derive the full vector displacement field due to the Bam, Iran, earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 using radar data from the Envisat satellite of the European Space Agency. Analysis of surface deformation indicates that most of the seismic moment release along the 20-km-long strike-slip rupture occurred at a shallow depth of 4-5 km, yet the rupture did not break the surface. The Bam event may therefore represent an end-member case of the 'shallow slip deficit' model, which postulates that coseismic slip in the uppermost crust is systematically less than that at seismogenic depths (4-10 km). The InSAR-derived surface displacement data from the Bam and other large shallow earthquakes suggest that the uppermost section of the seismogenic crust around young and developing faults may undergo a distributed failure in the interseismic period, thereby accumulating little elastic strain.     

Non-volcanic tremor driven by large transient shear stresses

Non-impulsive seismic radiation or 'tremor' has long been observed at volcanoes and more recently around subduction zones. Although the number of observations of non-volcanic tremor is steadily increasing, the causative mechanism remains unclear. Some have attributed non-volcanic tremor to the movement of fluids, while its coincidence with geodetically observed slow-slip events at regular intervals has led others to consider slip on the plate interface as its cause. Low-frequency earthquakes in Japan, which are believed to make up at least part of non-volcanic tremor, have focal mechanisms and locations that are consistent with tremor being generated by shear slip on the subduction interface. In Cascadia, however, tremor locations appear to be more distributed in depth than in Japan, making them harder to reconcile with a plate interface shear-slip model. Here we identify bursts of tremor that radiated from the Cascadia subduction zone near Vancouver Island, Canada, during the strongest shaking from the moment magnitude M(w) = 7.8, 2002 Denali, Alaska, earthquake. Tremor occurs when the Love wave displacements are to the southwest (the direction of plate convergence of the overriding plate), implying that the Love waves trigger the tremor. We show that these displacements correspond to shear stresses of approximately 40 kPa on the plate interface, which suggests that the effective stress on the plate interface is very low. These observations indicate that tremor and possibly slow slip can be instantaneously induced by shear stress increases on the subduction interface-effectively a frictional failure response to the driving stress.     

A great earthquake doublet and seismic stress transfer cycle in the central Kuril islands

Temporal variations of the frictional resistance on subduction-zone plate boundary faults associated with the stick-slip cycle of large interplate earthquakes are thought to modulate the stress regime and earthquake activity within the subducting oceanic plate. Here we report on two great earthquakes that occurred near the Kuril islands, which shed light on this process and demonstrate the enhanced seismic hazard accompanying triggered faulting. On 15 November 2006, an event of moment magnitude 8.3 ruptured the shallow-dipping plate boundary along which the Pacific plate descends beneath the central Kuril arc. The thrust ruptured a seismic gap that previously had uncertain seismogenic potential, although the earlier occurrence of outer-rise compressional events had suggested the presence of frictional resistance. Within minutes of this large underthrusting event, intraplate extensional earthquakes commenced in the outer rise region seaward of the Kuril trench, and on 13 January 2007, an event of moment magnitude 8.1 ruptured a normal fault extending through the upper portion of the Pacific plate, producing one of the largest recorded shallow extensional earthquakes. This energetic earthquake sequence demonstrates the stress transfer process within the subducting lithosphere, and the distinct rupture characteristics of these great earthquakes illuminate differences in seismogenic properties and seismic hazard of such interplate and intraplate faults.     

Non-volcanic tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms

Non-volcanic tremor is a weak, extended duration seismic signal observed episodically on some major faults, often in conjunction with slow slip events. Such tremor may hold the key to understanding fundamental processes at the deep roots of faults, and could signal times of accelerated slip and hence increased seismic hazard. The mechanism underlying the generation of tremor and its relationship to aseismic slip are, however, as yet unresolved. Here we demonstrate that tremor beneath Shikoku, Japan, can be explained as a swarm of small, low-frequency earthquakes, each of which occurs as shear faulting on the subduction-zone plate interface. This suggests that tremor and slow slip are different manifestations of a single process.     

潮汐应力与云南及邻区的地震

提出了潮汐应力对发震断层的力学模式,描述了附加潮汐应力对发震断层的促滑作用方式,并将该模式应用于云南及邻区的地震,计算了173个地震震源处沿主压应力P轴和主张应力T轴方向的附加潮汐应力分量,分析了这睦量对发震断层的作用方式以及受潮汐应力促滑作用的发震断层类型,结果表明,所研究的云南及邻区发生的173个地震中,64％的地震发震断层受到潮汐应力的促滑作用,其中,受减压型促滑作用的发震断层数比例略大于受增压型促滑作用的发动层数比例;在受到潮汐应力促滑作用的111个发震断层中,走滑型发震断层占67％,倾滑斜滑型发震断层占33％,说明云南及邻区的走滑型地震较易受到潮汐应力的触发作用。     

Crackling noise

Crackling noise arises when a system responds to changing external conditions through discrete, impulsive events spanning a broad range of sizes. A wide variety of physical systems exhibiting crackling noise have been studied, from earthquakes on faults to paper crumpling. Because these systems exhibit regular behaviour over a huge range of sizes, their behaviour is likely to be independent of microscopic and macroscopic details, and progress can be made by the use of simple models. The fact that these models and real systems can share the same behaviour on many scales is called universality. We illustrate these ideas by using results for our model of crackling noise in magnets, explaining the use of the renormalization group and scaling collapses, and we highlight some continuing challenges in this still-evolving field.     

Friction falls towards zero in quartz rock as slip velocity approaches seismic rates

An important unsolved problem in earthquake mechanics is to determine the resistance to slip on faults in the Earth's crust during earthquakes. Knowledge of coseismic slip resistance is critical for understanding the magnitude of shear-stress reduction and hence the near-fault acceleration that can occur during earthquakes, which affects the amount of damage that earthquakes are capable of causing. In particular, a long-unresolved problem is the apparently low strength of major faults, which may be caused by low coseismic frictional resistance. The frictional properties of rocks at slip velocities up to 3 mm s(-1) and for slip displacements characteristic of large earthquakes have been recently simulated under laboratory conditions. Here we report data on quartz rocks that indicate an extraordinary progressive decrease in frictional resistance with increasing slip velocity above 1 mm s(-1). This reduction extrapolates to zero friction at seismic slip rates of approximately 1 m s(-1), and appears to be due to the formation of a thin layer of silica gel on the fault surface: it may explain the low strength of major faults during earthquakes.     

Nonlinear dynamics, granular media and dynamic earthquake triggering

The 1992 magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake triggered an exceptional number of additional earthquakes within California and as far north as Yellowstone and Montana. Since this observation, other large earthquakes have been shown to induce dynamic triggering at remote distances--for example, after the 1999 magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine and the 2002 magnitude 7.9 Denali earthquakes--and in the near-field as aftershocks. The physical origin of dynamic triggering, however, remains one of the least understood aspects of earthquake nucleation. The dynamic strain amplitudes from a large earthquake are exceedingly small once the waves have propagated more than several fault radii. For example, a strain wave amplitude of 10(-6) and wavelength 1 m corresponds to a displacement amplitude of about 10(-7) m. Here we show that the dynamic, elastic-nonlinear behaviour of fault gouge perturbed by a seismic wave may trigger earthquakes, even with such small strains. We base our hypothesis on recent laboratory dynamic experiments conducted in granular media, a fault gouge surrogate. From these we infer that, if the fault is weak, seismic waves cause the fault core modulus to decrease abruptly and weaken further. If the fault is already near failure, this process could therefore induce fault slip.     

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M(w) > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that approximately 30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M(w) = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M(w) = 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake.     

大地震时空窗口研究

 依据《地震应可预测》一书收录的自中国初建电信传输台网以来,涉及近半个世纪的地震活动性图像,震级跨度自M3.0—M4.0级中强震至M8.0级大震,着眼于地震大尺度的观点,将中国地震的活动性图像置于全球地震活动框架中进行分析研究。认识到大地震不是任何地方都能发生的,大地震不是任何时间都能发生的,大地震有其特定的时空结构。条环交会、差异活动和深震与天外来客事件等是制约发震时空窗口的主要因素。条带与圆环的交会基本上有三种类型：条带与条带、圆环与圆环以及条带与圆环。研究了空区的特征形态,认为似用屈曲传递动力的组合环节以解释可能更为合适。因之重点应着眼于对其两者(活跃与平静)的差异性组合。鉴于大地震发震时刻窗口经常处在天外来客的节点上,因之我们尚需关注那些非随机的天外来客事件。本文阐述了制约发震时空窗口的诸多因素,这些因素也已在2011年3月11日M9.0东北日本大地震观测中得到了印证。     

Fine three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure beneath the capital region and deep environment for the nucleation of strong earthquakes

A detailed 3-D P-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle under the capitol region is determined with a spatial resolution of 25 km in the horizontal direction and 4-17 km in depth. We used 48750 precise P-wave arrival time data from 2973 events of local crustal earthquakes, controlled seismic explosions and quarry blasts. These events were recorded by 123 seismic stations. The data are analyzed by using a 3-D seismic tomography method. Our tomographic model provides new information on the geological structure and complex seismotectonics of this region. Different patterns of velocity structures show up in the North China Basin, the Taihangshan and the Yanshan Mountainous areas. The velocity images of the upper crust reflect well the surface geological, topographic and lithological features. In the North China Basin, the depression and uplift areas are imaged as slow and fast velocity belts, respectively, which are oriented in NE-SW direction. The trend of velocity anomalies is the same as that of major structure and tectonics. Paleozoic strata and Pre-Cambrian basement rocks outcrop widely in the Taihangshan and Yanshan uplift areas, which exhibit strong and broad high-velocity anomalies in our tomographic images, while the Quaternary intermountain basins show up as small low-velocity anomalies. Most of large earthquakes, such as the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.8) and the 1679 Sanhe earthquake (M 8.0), generally occurred in high-velocity areas in the upper to middle crust. However, in the lower crust to the uppermost mantle under the source zones of the large earthquakes, low-velocity and high-conductivity anomalies exist, which are considered to be associated with fluids, just like the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M 7.2) and the 2001 Indian Bhuj earthquake (M 7.8). The fluids in the lower crust may cause the weakening of the seismogenic layer in the upper and middle crust and thus contribute to the initiation of the large crustal earthquakes.     

Reflection signature of seismic and aseismic slip on the northern Cascadia subduction interface

At the northern Cascadia margin, the Juan de Fuca plate is underthrusting North America at about 45 mm x yr(-1) (ref. 1), resulting in the potential for destructive great earthquakes. The downdip extent of coupling between the two plates is difficult to determine because the most recent such earthquake (thought to have been in 1700) occurred before instrumental recording. Thermal and deformation studies indicate that, off southern Vancouver Island, the interplate interface is presently fully locked for a distance of approximately 60 km downdip from the deformation front. Great thrust earthquakes on this section of the interface (with magnitudes of up to 9) have been estimated to occur at an average interval of about 590 yr (ref. 3). Further downdip there is a transition from fully locked behaviour to aseismic sliding (where high temperatures allow ductile deformation), with the deep aseismic zone exhibiting slow-slip thrust events. Here we show that there is a change in the reflection character on seismic images from a thin sharp reflection where the subduction thrust is inferred to be locked, to a broad reflection band at greater depth where aseismic slip is thought to be occurring. This change in reflection character may provide a new technique to map the landward extent of rupture in great earthquakes and improve the characterization of seismic hazards in subduction zones.     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.