Assessment of complex sociotechnical systems – Theoretical issues concerning the use of organizational culture and organizational core task concepts

This article studies organizational assessment in complex sociotechnical systems. There is a practical need to monitor, anticipate and manage the safety and effectiveness of these systems. A failure to do so has resulted in various organizational accidents. Many theories of accidents and safety in industrial organizations are either based on a static and rational model of an organization or they are non-contextual. They are thus reactive in their search for errors and analysis of previous accidents and incidents, or they are disconnected from the actual work in the organization by their focus on general safety attitudes and values. A more proactive and predictive approach is needed, that is based on an accurate view on an organization and the demands of the work in question. This article presents and elaborates four statements: (1) the current models of safety management are largely based on either a rational or a non-contextual image of an organization, (2) complex sociotechnical systems are socially constructed and dynamic cultures, (3) in order to be able to assess complex sociotechnical systems an understanding of the organizational core task is required, and (4) effectiveness and safety depend on the cultural conceptions of the organizational core task. Finally, we will discuss the implications of the proposed concepts for safety research and development work in complex sociotechnical systems.     

基于BP神经网络的安全生产事故统计情况预测分析

通过对1990—2008年安全生产事故统计情况进行分析,梳理了社会经济发展的各项指标,选择其中的人均GDP、第三产业比重、非农就业人口比重、城镇居民可支配收入、万人大学生数、万人医生数等反映经济发展的主要指标作为神经网络的输入端,以安全生产事故起数和死亡人数为输出端,以2007年全国各地区经济发展指标和事故统计情况为样本训练BP神经网络,进行不同省份安全生产情况的预测。其结果与实际情况符合性较好,为目前安全生产形势分析提供了一种新方法,该法对预测安全生产监督管理工作提供参考。     

Analysis of injury events with fuzzy cognitive maps

Issues related to health and safety at work, such as accidents at work, are one of the most important areas of action for global social policy. This paper presents a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach to explore the importance of the relevant factors in industrial plants. For this purpose, industrial plants are described in terms of factors that affect injury risk and the causal relationships involved.In this work, the injuries in an Italian refinery have been studied. The company in this account has a system for monitoring and controlling the machinery but has a large number of minor injuries at work. The causes of these injuries have been found in human behaviours. To analyse the injuries, it is necessary to investigate what individual-level concerns are involved in the perception of risk. For this investigation, an FCM permits us to build a schema of the perception of risk. The resulting analysis of all of these schemas has allowed us to define a method that generically permits a determination of the causes for each type of injury. In fact, it has been possible to determine that factors such as poor attention and concentration or fatigue are the main causes of injuries at work.In light of the results obtained, managers can define appropriate control procedures to diminish the occurrences of the injuries.     

基于协整和因果分析的我国安全生产宏观政策干预研究

为进一步分析我国安全生产政策的实施效果及存在问题,根据政策时效干预度量化模型,采用协检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等计量方法对1978-2006年我国特别重大事故发生趋势与政策时效干预力度关系进行量化分析,得出特别重人事故的发生与政策时效干预力度问存在长期均衡关系,且在10%的显著水平下,特别重大事故的发生是政策时效干预力度加强的格兰杰原因.同时分析表明,目前我国安全生产政策干预表现出两大缺点:被动性和滞后性.因此,应逐步开展生产安全事故宏观预警与政策模拟等研究,为提高安全生产宏观政策干预的主动性和前瞻性提供技术支持.     

Process industry accidents in Sri Lanka: Analysis and basic lessons learnt

Accidents in the process industry could be prevented or reduced by having good safety management measures. Such preventive measures could be further improved through the experiences and lessons learnt from past accidents. Therefore, analysis results of past accidents are valuable sources of information for determining root causes and as case material to prevent and reduce the adverse consequences of accidents in the process industry.This paper looks at accidents in the process industry that have occurred in the past 10 years from 1997 to 2006 in Sri Lanka to gain an understanding of the nature and consequences of accidents. Lessons and main areas of concern to improve safety in the Sri Lanka process industry are discussed. The analysis is done for different event types based on specific operating process stage during which the accident occurred such as processing, loading and unloading, repair and maintenance and storage, the immediate effect types such as fire, explosion, chemical releases and emissions and the consequences of each accident. Fire incidents were observed in 38 accidents analyzed. The results show that the highest number of accidents has occurred during processing operations followed by accidents during maintenance and repair work. The cause analysis shows that many accidents have occurred due to technical and human failures.The accidents are then classified according to the severity of the consequences in order to compare the nature of accidents experienced in Sri Lanka with respect to accidents in other countries in the world.     

General assessment of the occupational accidents that occurred in Turkey between the years 2000 and 2005

Occupational accidents still constitute one of the major problems in Turkey, as they do all over the world. Every year, nearly one thousand people die due to occupational accidents and two thousand people are injured, becoming temporarily or permanently disabled. This leads to social and economic problems for these people. As a result, families suffer from occupational accidents socially and psychologically. On the other hand, the economy of the country and the employers are faced with economic loss and work day loss. The aim of this study is to assess the results of occupational accidents occurring between the years 2000 and 2005 in Turkey in terms of various criteria. In this study, a fluctuation in Turkey in the number of occupational accidents between 2000 and 2005 and a downward fluctuation in the number of deaths resulting from occupational accidents have been observed. Permanent disabilities have also shown a falling trend since 2002. Occupational accidents are mostly seen in the sectors of manufacture of metal goods (except for machines), construction, the textile industry, coal mining and manufacture of transportation vehicles, while the deaths of workers and permanently disabled persons due to occupational accidents are mostly seen in the construction sector.     

Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry

Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.     

Fatal accidents in Swedish farming and forestry, 1988–1997

It has long been acknowledged that farm work is associated with accident risks. In this investigation it has been determined how these risks have changed over the past 10-year period, and how different factors have affected the risk pattern. All the registered accidents forming the basis for this study (ISA, The Occupational Safety and Health Administration) were supplemented with information obtained from the Labor Inspectorate, police, Occupational Health Services, and in many cases, persons from the district having information about the accident. The number of fatal accidents occurring at work is decreasing in Sweden and in many other countries. This, however, is not true for Swedish farm and forestry operations. The frequency of fatal accidents is 11.6 per year per 100,000 persons among those with farming as a main occupation, and 13.6 among those with forestry as a main occupation, and the trend appears to be on the increase. In addition, a number of farmers, persons with other occupations, or senior citizens (mostly retired farmers) also meet with fatal accidents, primarily in forestry. Access or membership in occupational health schemes was lower than expected among the victims. Even among the employed forestry workers, only a minority had access. More than half of the accidents were due to either the victim or a fellow worker not following generally known rules or recommendations.     

1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件不完全统计分析

对1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件进行了统计分析,以从总体上揭示这些事件的发生规律及其对城市水源地和供水安全的危害.采用文献检索方法,通过对1985-2005年<中国环境报>、<人民日报>、新华网等报刊和网络的检索,从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况4个方面统计中国城市水源地突发污染事件,经整理和筛选后共列出102起.这些突发污染事件的分析结果表明:1)中国城市水源地突发污染事件总体上呈数量逐年增多,危害增大的趋势;2)化学品和污水是主要污染物;3)河道交通事故和工厂泄漏事故是主要风险源;4)突发污染事件一般都造成了比较严重的经济社会影响,但缺乏相应的应急管理机制和应急部门;5)3个典型突发污染事件造成重大经济社会损失并引发社会高度关注,凸现了构建中国城市水源地突发污染事件应急机制的重要性和迫切性.     

Occupational Health and Social Resources

There is a relationship between the changes in work-related diseases and the following factors: the transformation of the organization of work, organizational development, as well as human and social changes in the work environment. These factors also influence the maintenance of industrial health and safety standards at work. Safety technology will continue to be important, but will be reduced in significance compared to the so-called soft factors, that is, all dimensions and parameters affecting people’s health and social environment at the work place.

It seems that in the future the relationship between the social resource development and work protection will become more relevant. Social resource development influences the quality of work performance and motivation, the quality of work and work protection, the likelihood of accidents and breakdowns, and the level of self-control and capacity of change.

The consequences of work protection research will be discussed in this article with a focus on the contribution of social sciences.     

我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*

为探讨我国生产安全事故的宏观影响因素,采用自回归分布滞后（Auto regressive Distributed Lag,ARDL）模型,考察1953—2019年间我国经济增长、产业结构、就业结构以及城镇人口占比等宏观因素对我国生产安全事故的影响。结果表明:生产安全事故与上述宏观因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。在长期关系中,第二产业增加值对我国生产安全事故具有正向影响作用,而经济增长、非农业就业人口比重及城镇人口占比的影响显著为负;在短期关系中,经济增长、第三产业增加值、城镇人口占比的上升增加了生产安全事故风险。上述因素具有不同的分布滞后效应,其相互作用叠加形成生产安全事故系统性风险。研究结果可为推进我国安全发展提供理论思路和参考。     

Environmental disaster education at the university level: an integrative approach

Because of the highly complex nature of chemical and nuclear accidents, efforts aimed at prevention, preparedness and response require the melding of many types of knowledge and the close collaboration of a wide range of professions. Nevertheless, the need for such integration and cooperation is not always strongly emphasized in university-level curricula. As a result, developing professionals have few opportunities to learn and practise unified models of environmental accident management. In an effort to foster a more integrative approach, the University of Alabama at Birmingham, USA, has launched the “Environmental Disasters” project. The project crosses disciplinary boundaries with respect to both curriculum and enrollment. In terms of curriculum, the project examines chemical and nuclear accidents from a multi-dimensional perspective, considering not only regulatory, scientific and policy issues, but also the public health, social, and psychological implications. In terms of enrollment, the project brings together students from the full range of fields that are involved with environmental accidents, including engineering, public health, public administration, social work, psychology, nursing, communications, medicine, and environmental studies. Emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach, students work in multi-disciplinary teams as they explore theory, case studies and current research. In addition, the student teams develop detailed plans for addressing the effects of a chemical or nuclear disaster. With environmental accidents representing an on-going threat to health and safety, the approach discussed in this article may provide a useful model for environmental disaster education at the university level.     

The perceived compatibility of safety and production expectations in hazardous occupations

INTRODUCTION: Safety hazards are unavoidable in many work environments. Employees must be both productive and safe, however, conflicting safety and production demands can negatively affect safety, production, or both. The employee's perception of the compatibility of management's safety and production expectations is a possible predictor of such consequences. This paper defines "safety-production compatibility" and describes how measures of safety-production compatibility, as well as safety pressure and production pressure, were developed. METHOD: We used LISREL structural equation modeling to test the influences of safety-production compatibility, safety pressure, and production pressure on safe work behavior and interference with performing other work tasks. The 239 study participants were workers employed in diverse but hazardous occupations. RESULTS: Pressure to work safely was positively associated with safe work behavior. The perceived compatibility of safety and production demands positively influenced safe work behavior and reduced the interference of safety hazards performing other tasks. Safety-production compatibility was also found to mediate the relationship between trust in management and safe work behavior. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this field study suggest increased compatibility, and thus less conflict, between safety and production demands influences safe work behavior and the interference of safety hazards with performing other work tasks. More broadly, the worker's reaction to multiple work demands is a safety and performance influence. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Safety management efforts that focus only on the hazards fail to eliminate many accidents because accidents arise from many factors including technology, safety climate, social influences, production, and safety demands. This study suggests that workers differ in their perception of the compatibility of safety and production demands. These differences will show up in safe work behavior, influencing the effectiveness of safety management efforts and the trust workers have in management's concern for safety.     

基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究

为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。     

OHSAS 18001 certification and work accidents: Shedding light on the connection

Introduction: The implications of OHSAS 18001 for substantive Occupational Health and Safety outcomes such, as a reduction in work accidents, have been under-researched in the scholarly literature. The impact of this standard on other aspects of performance, such as profitability and productivity, has attracted more attention. Method: This article aims to fill this gap by shedding light on the relationship between OHSAS 18001 certification and the rates of minor, serious, and fatal accidents per employee at work experienced in certified and non-certified companies. Results: Based on an analysis of a sample of 5,147 Spanish firms, the findings show that OHSAS 18001 certification is only loosely related with better occupational health and safety performance measured in terms of rate of accidents at work. A propensity for OHSAS 18001 certification to be found in economic sectors of activity with worse occupational health and safety outcomes in terms of rate of work-related accidents is identified. There is evidence of a negative selection-effect of the main international management standard for occupational health and safety. Potential distortions and biases that may be related to these and other findings in the scholarly literature are analyzed. Managerial implications of the main findings, implications for policy makers, and avenues for future research are discussed.     

Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident

This article aims to demonstrate the need for changing the methods with which accidents are analyzed, if we truly wish to use what we uncover from them to learn and enrich our knowledge base of organizational management. The goal is to relinquish the broadly adopted and rather simplistic paradigm that accepts the search for human error and unsafe acts performed by workers, and produces “guilt diagnostics”. Instead, we use a systemic accident analysis methodology, based on the sociotechnical principle of understanding the real operating conditions in which accidents take place. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the theoretical framework, we compare the analyses of an Anhydrous Ammonia gas leakage accident in a fish processing plant using the traditional accident analysis model based on unsafe acts and the proposed systemic approach. The results favor the latter since it tends to be more reliable and offering useful recommendations to safety management processes, thus helping to prevent accidents, especially in complex systems.     

基于决策树模型的煤矿安全事故严重程度分析与预测

为将数据挖掘技术应用于煤矿安全管理,通过对我国1999—2015年29 000多条煤矿安全事故数据的研究,系统分析了事故发生的区域、时间、类型和企业信息等因素对事故严重程度的影响及彼此之间的相关性。通过构建决策树分类模型,在给定事故相关信息的基础上,对事故严重程度进行分类预测;基于数据类别不平衡的特点,采用欠采样的抽样方法,同时利用梯度提升的组合分类器来提高分类精度。结果表明,采用的数据挖掘模型在预测不同严重程度的事故上均达到了较高精度。     

The effect of age on safety and work practices among domestic trash collectors in Québec

Aging is associated with physiological modifications which may affect work activities. Trash collectors' work at the back of garbage trucks is both solitary and strenuous, and it therefore appeared relevant to investigate the effects of aging in these workers. The working hypotheses were that older trash collectors work at different speeds and adopt different work practices than do younger ones, and that these differences affect the frequency and nature of accidents and mishaps in the two age groups. A multidisciplinary approach, incorporating statistics, ergonomics, and social sciences, was adopted. Workers at least 35 years old were compared to younger workers, using data from three sources: accident data (176 cases), observation of 17 trash collectors during 36 collection trips (more than 150 hours of observation), and semi-directed interviews of 11 trash collectors. Analysis indicated that older trash collectors: (1) adopt a slower work rhythm; (2) are helped more often by teammates; (3) are involved less frequently in mishaps; (4) declare themselves less fatigued and to have suffered fewer accidents; and (5) are proportionally more likely to be victims of slips, falls, and back injuries resulting from movements under load. There was no observed difference, however, between the work practices adopted by the two groups of workers or the length of work absences following accidents.     

Development of a new chemical process-industry accident database to assist in past accident analysis

Past accident analysis (PAA) is one of the most potent and oft-used exercises for gaining insights into the reasons why accidents occur in chemical process industry (CPI) and the damage they cause. PAA provides invaluable ‘wisdom of hindsight’ with which strategies to prevent accidents or cushion the impact of inevitable accidents can be developed.A number of databases maintain record of past accidents in CPI. The most comprehensive of the existing databases include Major Hazard Incident Data Service (MHIDAS), Major Accident Reporting System (MARS), and Failure and Accidents Technical Information Systems (FACTS). But each of these databases have some limitations. For example MHIDAS can be accessed only after paying a substantial fee. Moreover, as detailed in the paper, it is not infallible and has some inaccuracies. Other databases, besides having similar problems, are seldom confined to accidents in chemical process industries but also cover accidents from other domains such as nuclear power plants, construction industry, and natural disasters. This makes them difficult to use for PAA relating to CPI. Operational injuries not related to loss of containment, are also often included. Moreover, the detailing of events doesn’t follow a consistent pattern or classification; a good deal of relevant information is either missing or is misclassified.The present work is an attempt to develop a comprehensive open-source database to assist PAA. To this end, information on about 8000 accidents, available in different open-source clearing houses has been brought into a new database named by us PUPAD (Pondicherry University Process-industry Accident Database). Multiple and overlapping accident records have been carefully eliminated and a search engine has been developed for retrieval of the records on the basis of appropriate classification. PUPAD doesn’t aim to replace or substitute the well established databases such as MHIDAS and MARS but, rather, aims to compliment them.