地震诱发滑坡复活机制的FLAC~(3D)数值模拟分析

地震是影响斜(边)坡、滑坡稳定性的主要因素之一。白龙江上某大型滑坡经顺层斜坡发生倾倒变形而成,天然状态下处于基本稳定状态,在"5.12″汶川地震作用下,该滑坡有整体复活迹象,其后缘周界形成了连续贯通的拉裂缝、错动台阶,尤其是滑坡下游区变形拉裂较明显。本文以该滑坡在地震作用下发生复活为例,在分析滑坡所处的区域地质条件的基础上,详细研究了滑坡的基本特征以及地震作用导致滑坡复活的现象、特征,然后利用FLAC3D软件内置动力分析模块对该滑坡复活机制进行了分析、研究。数值分析表明,地震作用下滑坡变形破坏受坡体形态的影响较显著,滑坡对地震波具有明显的放大效应;同一地震动条件下,滑坡体相对周边处于稳定状态基岩边坡对地震更为敏感。这较好地解释了"5.12″汶川地震作用下,该滑坡的复活原因。     

Effects of geological and tectonic characteristics on the earthquake-triggered Daguangbao landslide,China

The Daguangbao landslide is the largest co-seismic landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) occurred on 12 May 2008. The landslide, which is 4.6 km long and 3.7 km wide, involves a volume of approximately 1.2 × 10⁹ m³. An exposed slip surface, situated at the southern flank of its source area, was observed with a length of 1.8 km along the main sliding direction and an area of 0.3 km². To study the geological and tectonic characteristics of the source area and their contributions to the landslide formation during the earthquake, detailed geological investigations were firstly conducted. And it is reached that the landslide occurred on the northwestern limb of the Dashuizha anticline with its scarp showing several geological structures, including joint sets, local faults, and folds. These tectonic-related structures potentially influenced the failure of the landslide. Secondly, further investigations were focused on the inclined planar sliding surface using 12 exploratory trenches, nine boreholes, a tunnel, borehole sonic data, and micro-images. These data reveal that the rock mass along the sliding surface was the fragmented rock of a bedding fault. A pulverized zone was observed on the sliding surface, which was the zone of shear localization during the landslide. This suggests that the shear failure of the Daguangbao landslide developed within the bedding fault. The rapid failure of the landslide was associated with the degradation of the rock mass strength of the bedding fault both before and during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. With this study, we propose that a pre-existing large discontinuity within a slope may be the basis for initiating a large landslide during earthquake.     

Analysis of an anti-dip landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The Guantan landslide, with a total displaced mass of about 468 × 10⁴ m³, was triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and succeeding rainfall in Jushui Town, Sichuan Province, China. The landslide occurred on an anti-dip hard rock slope with a weak rock founding stratum of 200 m in thickness. To investigate the failure mechanism of the Guantan landslide, dynamic behaviors of hard and soft rock slopes were investigated by means of large scale shaking table tests. The laboratory models attempted to simulate the field geological conditions of the Guantan landslide. Sinusoidal waves and actual seismic waves measured from the Wenchuan Earthquake were applied on the slope models under 37 loading configurations. The experimental results indicated that deformation mainly developed at a shallow depth in the upper part of the hard rock slope and in the upper (near the crest) and lower (near the toe) parts of the soft rock slope. An equation for predicting the depth of sliding plane was proposed based on the location of the maximum horizontal acceleration. Finally, it was concluded that the failure process of the Guantan landslide occurred in three stages: (1) toppling failure caused by compression of the underlying soft rock strata, (2) formation of crushed hard rock and sliding surface in soft rock as the result of seismic shocks, particularly in the horizontal direction, and (3) aftershock rainfall accelerates the process of mass movement along the sliding plane.     

汶川地震中唐家山滑坡稳定性研究

根据唐家山边坡滑坡前的基本地形地貌,建立相关模型,采用Mohr-Coulomb准则,利用折减强度法计算其安全系数,并分析在地震波作用下唐家山滑坡的稳定性状况。安全系数计算结果显示,边坡模型在自然状态(即只有重力作用)下的安全系数为1.46,表明边坡在自然状态下是相对稳定的。选取汶川地震最初30秒幅值较大的地震波,对边坡采用自由场边界条件进行分析计算,结果表明边坡在地震作用下将在坡面产生贯通的塑性区,这一塑性区与真实的滑坡坡体一致,由于地震加速度的作用边坡将产生较大的位移和速度,这些大的位移和速度在边坡滑坡后将产生巨大的能量,造成灾难和损失。     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究

汶川地震发生后,灾区暴雨泥石流活动进入一个新的活跃期。根据对北川震区2008年9月24日暴雨泥石流调查,泥石流流域中地震诱发大量滑坡导致松散物源巨大,泥石流过程的洪峰流量比通常的要大数倍,应用以往泥石流危险范围预测模型进行计算的结果与实际的误差较大。因此,需要建立适用于强震区的泥石流危险范围预测方法。本文以9.24北川暴雨泥石流为典型实例,结合野外调查,利用震后高分辨航空图像和9.24暴雨后SPOT5图像分别提取泥石流发生前流域中滑坡物源储量及发生后形成的堆积扇特征数据,应用多元回归方法建立了汶川震区泥石流危险范围预测模型,该方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆积距离和堆积宽度。验证和应用结果表明:该模型适用于强震区泥石流危险范围的预测,模型方法可为震区重建中安全地段选择和未来地震区风险管理提供重要依据。     

Stability assessment of Jinlong village landslide,Sichuan

The Jinlong village landslide is located in Zitong County, Sichuan and approximately 150 km east of Wenchuan. The landslide has exhibited creep deformation for nearly 30 years. Field investigations indicated that the slope deformation was caused by the combined effects of unfavorable topographic and geological conditions and earthquakes. The sliding surface is along a contact between silty clay and mudstone. The Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the creep, causing bulging of the ground surface. Shear test results of the silty clay near the sliding surface indicated that the residual strength is consistent with the stability state of the landslide. The factors of safety were calculated using the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the method of fast Lagrangian analysis of continua in two dimensions. The results using the LEM indicate that the stability is clearly affected by seismic shaking, and when the peak ground acceleration is 0.08g, the slope reaches the limit state. The shear failure surface given by numerical simulation develops on the contact between the clay and silty mudstone, which confirmed the assumed sliding surfaces’ location using the LEM.     

Landslides triggered by slipping-fault-generated earthquake on a plateau: an example of the 14 April 2010, Ms 7.1, Yushu, China earthquake

On 14 April 2010 at 07:49 (Beijing time), a catastrophic earthquake with Ms 7.1 struck Yushu County, Qinghai Province, China. A total of 2,036 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and satellite images, verified by selected field checking. These landslides cover about a total area of 1.194 km². The characteristics and failure mechanisms of these landslides are presented in this paper. The spatial distribution of the landslides is evidently strongly controlled by the locations of the main co-seismic surface fault ruptures. The landslides commonly occurred close together. Most of the landslides are small; there were only 275 individual landslide (13.5 % of the total number) surface areas larger than 1,000 m². The landslides are of various types. They are mainly shallow, disrupted landslides, but also include rock falls, deep-seated landslides, liquefaction-induced landslides, and compound landslides. Four types of factors are identified as contributing to failure along with the strong ground shaking: natural excavation of the toes of slopes, which mean erosion of the base of the slope, surface water infiltration into slopes, co-seismic fault slipping at landslide sites, and delayed occurrence of landslides due to snow melt or rainfall infiltration at sites where slopes were weakened by the co-seismic ground shaking. To analyze the spatial distribution of the landslides, the landslide area percentage (LAP) and landslide number density (LND) were compared with peak ground acceleration (PGA), distance from co-seismic main surface fault ruptures, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, and lithology. The results show landslide occurrence is strongly controlled by proximity to the main surface fault ruptures, with most landslides occurring within 2.5 km of such ruptures. There is no evident correlation between landslide occurrences and PGA. Both LAP and LND have strongly positive correlations with slope gradient, and additionally, sites at elevations between 3,800 and 4,000 m are relatively susceptible to landslide occurrence; as are slopes with northeast, east, and southeast slope aspects. Q₄ al-pl, N, and T₃ kn ¹ have more concentrated landslide activity than others. This paper provides a detailed inventory map of landslides triggered by the 2010 Yushu earthquake for future seismic landslide hazard analysis and also provides a study case of characteristics, failure mechanisms, and spatial distribution of landslides triggered by slipping-fault generated earthquake on a plateau.     

汶川地震诱发罐滩滑坡形成机制初步分析

安县罐滩滑坡由汶川地震诱发形成,发育于存在软弱基座的反倾斜坡中,体积达468×104m3。罐滩滑坡由"5.12"汶川地震及当晚暴雨诱发形成,发生时间滞后地震8 h,是典型的地震后效型滑坡。滑坡位于龙门山前山断裂带上盘,自然斜坡走向与断裂带近平行,水平距离约400 m,前山断裂带的分支断裂从坡体下部通过,并形成底部泥岩和上部白云岩的分界线。调查和分析表明,下软上硬的坡体结构是滑坡产生的基础,强烈的地质构造活动背景是其产生的重要条件,强烈的地面震动和高强度暴雨是导致产生滑坡的根本因素。滑坡的形成机制和发展过程可以分为以下3个阶段:自然斜坡的压缩-倾倒变形、震后滑面贯通阶段、滑坡整体破坏阶段。滑坡体形成沿河长400 m,纵向长880 m,平面面积1.82×105m2的滑坡堆积体,堵塞雎水河形成罐滩堰塞湖。     

Characteristics and numerical runout modeling of the heavy rainfall-induced catastrophic landslide–debris flow at Sanxicun,Dujiangyan, China,following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a large number of extensive landslides. It also affected geologic properties of the mountains such that large-scale landslides followed the earthquake, resulting in the formation of a disaster chain. On 10 July 2013, a catastrophic landslide–debris flow suddenly occurred in the Dujiangyan area of Sichuan Province in southeast China. This caused the deaths of 166 people and the burying or damage of 11 buildings along the runout path. The landslide involved the failure of ≈1.47 million m³, and the displaced material from the source area was ≈0.3 million m³. This landslide displayed shear failure at a high level under the effects of a rainstorm, which impacted and scraped an accumulated layer underneath and a heavily weathered rock layer during the release of potential and kinetic energies. The landslide body entrained a large volume of surface residual diluvial soil, and then moved downstream along a gully to produce a debris flow disaster. This was determined to be a typical landslide–debris flow disaster type. The runout of displaced material had a horizontal extent of 1200 m and a vertical extent of 400 m. This was equivalent to the angle of reach (fahrböschung angle) of 19° and covered an area of 0.2 km². The background and motion of the landslide are described in this study. On the basis of the above analysis, dynamic simulation software (DAN3D) and rheological models were used to simulate the runout behavior of the displaced landslide materials in order to provide information for the hazard zonation of similar types of potential landslide–debris flows in southeast China following the Wenchuan earthquake. The simulation results of the Sanxicun landslide revealed that the frictional model had the best performance for the source area, while the Voellmy model was most suitable for the scraping and accumulation areas. The simulations estimated that the motion could last for ≈70 s, with a maximum speed of 47.7 m/s.     

Controlling parameter analyses and hazard mapping for earthquake-triggered landslides: an example from a square region in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China

On May 12, 2008, at 1428 hours (Beijing time), a catastrophic earthquake, with a magnitude of Ms 8.0, struck the Sichuan Province, China. About 200,000 landslides, as a secondary geological hazard associated with the earthquake, were triggered over a broad area. These landslides were of almost all types such as shallow, disrupted landslides, rock falls, deep-seated landslides, and rock avalanches. Some of these landslides damaged and destroyed large part of some towns, blocked roads, dammed rivers, and caused other serious damages. The purpose of this study is to detect correlations between landslide occurrence and the surface rupture plane, ground shaking conditions (measured by peak ground acceleration, PGA), lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, topographic position, and distance from drainages by using two indices, landslide area percentage (LAP) and the landslide number density (LND), based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and statistical analysis method in a square region (study area) of Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China. There were 5,096 landslides related with the earthquake which were delineated by visual interpretation and selected field checking throughout the study area. The total area (horizontal projection) of the 5,096 landslides is about 41.103 km². The LAP, which is defined as the percentage of the plane area affected by landslides, was 10.276 %, and the LND, means the number of landslides per square kilometers, was 12.74 landslides/km². Statistical analysis results show that both LAP and LND have a positive correlation with slope gradient and a negative correlation with distance from the surface rupture. However, the correlation between the occurrence of landslides with PGA, topographic position, and distance from drainages are uncertain, or has just a little positive correlation. The correlation between landslide and slope aspect also shows the effect of the directivity of the seismic wave. The Zbq formation had the most concentrated landslide activity with the LND value of 21.78 landslides/km _, ² and the ∈₁ q Gr. geological units had the highest LAP value. Furthermore, weight index (W _i) model is performed with a GIS platform to derive landslide hazard index map. The success rate of the model was 71.615 % and, thus, it was valid. In addition, comparison of five landslide controlling parameters’ influence on landslide occurrences was also carried out.     

次摸地古滑坡运动特征反演分析

以雅砻江次摸地古滑坡体为研究对象,经过现场地质调查,从地形地貌,地震记录及物质结构等地质条件对古滑坡的稳定性进行了宏观地质评价。认为在自然状态下古滑坡处于稳定状态,稳定性主要受控于引起初始滑动的基覆界面和体内潜滑面,同时,经过古滑坡前后形态变化的推演分析,根据能量法,滑坡运动学和谢德格尔假说,确定了4个关键的滑坡运动参数:滑坡半径r,等效坡度,综合动摩擦角和最大滑速Vmax 对应的后缘落差Hm。其中后缘落差Hm的取值分两种方法:（1）认为滑坡出现最大滑速Vmax 时后缘点停止运动,最大滑速Vmax 对应的Hm为滑动前后滑坡后缘点的垂直落距,（2）认为最大滑速Vmax 出现时后缘点和坡体会开始减速运动到静止,因此最大滑速Vmax 对应的Hm小于滑动前后滑坡后缘点的垂直落距,需要通过假设圆弧滑动面和滑坡运动学公式求出。最终本文推算出滑坡属于高速滑坡,最大滑速Vmax 在13.50～21.20ms-1 之间,并对古滑坡高速失稳的地质条件特征进行了分析。这对次摸地古滑坡附近工程地质背景相近的斜坡稳定性评价有一定借鉴意义。     

Spatial distribution analysis and susceptibility mapping of landslides triggered before and after Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake along Upper Bhote Koshi,Nepal

The 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake triggered thousands of landslides of various types scattered over a large area. In the current study, we utilized pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite imagery to compile two landslide inventories before and after earthquake and prepared three landslide susceptibility maps within 404 km² area using frequency ratio (FR) model. From the study, we could map about 519 landslides including 178 pre-earthquake slides and 341 coseismic slides were identified. This study investigated the relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide causative factors, i.e., slope, aspect, altitude, plan curvature, lithology, land use, distance from streams, distance from road, distance from faults, and peak ground acceleration. The analysis showed that the majority of landslides both pre-earthquake and coseismic occurred at slope >30°, preferably in S, SE, and SW directions and within altitude ranging from 1000 to 1500 m and 1500 to 3500 m. Scatter plots between number of landslides per km^?2 (LN) and percentage of landslide area (LA) and causative factors indicate that slope is the most influencing factor followed by lithology and PGA for the landslide formation. Higher landslide susceptibility before earthquake is observed along the road and rivers, whereas landslides after earthquake are triggered at steeper slopes and at higher altitudes. Combined susceptibility map indicates the effect of topography, geology, and land cover in the triggering of landslides in the entire basin. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps are verified through AUC showing success rates of 78, 81, and 77%, respectively. These susceptibility maps are helpful for engineers and planners for future development work in the landslide prone area.     

On the initiation and movement mechanisms of a catastrophic landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan (M<Subscript>s</Subscript> 8.0) earthquake in the epicenter area

The Niumiangou landslide (~7.5 × 10⁶ m³) was the largest that occurred in the town of Yingxiu (the epicentral area) during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This landslide originated on a steep slope (~30°) that was located directly above the rupture surface of the responsible fault and then traveled ~2 km after flowing down the axes of two gently sloping (<12°) valleys. Evidence at the site indicates that the landslide materials were highly fluidized and underwent rapid movement. To examine the initiation and movement mechanisms of this landslide, we performed a detailed field survey, conducted laboratory tests on samples taken from the field, and analyzed the seismic motion. We conclude that the landside materials were displaced due to seismic loading during the earthquake and that liquefaction may have been triggered in saturated layers above the sliding surface with progressive downslope sliding, which resulted in the high mobility of the displaced materials. The liquefaction of colluvial deposits along the travel path due to loading by the sliding mass enhanced the mobility of the displaced mass originating in the source area. Using an energy-based approach, we estimated the dissipated energy in our cyclic loading test and the possible energy dissipated to the soil layer on the slope by the earthquake. We infer that the seismic energy available for the initiation of the slope failure in the source area may have greatly exceeded the amount required for the initiation of the liquefaction failure. The slope instability might have been triggered several seconds after the arrival of seismic motion.     

Activity and distribution of geohazards induced by the Lushan earthquake,April 20, 2013

An Ms7.0 earthquake, focal depth 13 km, struck Lushan on April 20, 2013, caused 196 deaths and 21 missing, 13,484 injuries, and affected more than two million people. A field investigation was taken immediately after the quake, and the induced hazards were analyzed in comparison with the Wenchuan earthquake. We have identified 1,460 landslides and avalanches and four dammed lakes, which were generally small and concentrated on high elevation. Avalanches and rockfalls developed in cliffs and steep slopes of hard rocks, including Jinjixia of Baosheng Town and Dayanxia of Shuangshi Town, Lushan, and the K317 section the Xiaoguanzi section north to Lingguan Town along the provincial highway S210. Landslides were relatively less, mainly in moderate and small scales, developing in sandstone, shale, and loose colluviums. Only one single large landslide was observed to turn into debris slide-flow. Dammed lakes were formed by avalanches and landslides, all in small size and of low danger degree. The earthquake-induced hazards distributed in belt on the hanging wall along the faults, and their major controlling factors include tectonics, lithology, structure surface, and landform. More than 99 % landslides were within 30 km to the epicenter, and 678 within 10 km, accounting for 46 % of the total; about 50 % landslides were distributed on slopes between 35° and 55°, and 11 % on slope exceeding 75°; 60 % on slopes at the altitudes between 1,000 and 1,500 m, 77 % on slopes between 900 and 1,500 m; and 24 and 62 % in hard rocks and section between hard and soft rocks, respectively. Compared with the case of Wenchuan earthquake, both the number and extension of landslides and avalanches in Lushan earthquake-affected area are much smaller, only 5.53 % in number and 0.57 % in area. The earthquake has increased the instability of slope and potentiality of landslide and debris flow. Accordingly, the active period is expected to be relatively short comparing with that in Wenchuan earthquake-hit area. However, the insidious and concealed hazards bring difficulty for risk investigation.     

Initiation process of debris flows on different slopes due to surface flow and trigger-specific strategies for mitigating post-earthquake in old Beichuan County, China

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China, produced an estimated volume of 28 × 10⁸ m³ loosened material, which led to debris flows after the earthquake. Debris flows are the dominant mountain hazards, and serious threat to lives, properties, buildings, traffic, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-hit areas. It is very important to understand the debris flow initiation processes and characteristics, for designing debris flow mitigation. The main objective of this article is to examine the different debris flow initiation processes in order to identify suitable mitigation strategies. Three types of debris flow initiation processes were identified (designated as Types A, B, and C) by field survey and experiments. In “A” type initiation, the debris flow forms as a result of dam failure in the process of rill erosion, slope failure, landslide dam, or dam failure. This type of debris flow occurs at the slope of 10 ± 2°, with a high bulk density, and several surges following dam failure. “B” type initiation is the result of a gradual increase in headward down cutting, bank and lateral erosion, and then large amount of loose material interfusion into water flow, which increases the bulk density, and forms the debris flow. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 15 ± 3° without surges. “C” type debris flow results from slope failures by surface flow, infiltration, loose material crack, slope failure, and fluidization. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 21 ± 4°, and has several surges of debris flow following slope failure, and a high bulk density. To minimize the hazards from debris flows in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the erosion control measures, such as the construction of grid dams, slope failure control measures, the construction of storage sediment dams, and the drainage measures, such as construction of drainage ditches are proposed. Based on our results, it is recommend that the control measures should be chosen based on the debris flow initiation type, which affects the peak discharge, bulk density and the discharge process. The mitigation strategies discussed in this paper are based on experimental simulations of the debris flows in the Weijia, Huashiban, and Xijia gullies of old Beichuan city. The results are useful for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery, as well as for preventing similar geohazards in the future.     

地震破裂带特殊部位大型滑坡及其基于构造地貌发生模型的机制解释:以东河口抛射型滑坡为例

汶川地震在龙门山地区激发了大量的次生地质灾害,其中尤以滑坡灾害分布最为广泛和严重。在所有滑坡灾害中,东河口滑坡发生在北川破裂带的北东端点,具有相当的特殊性,并造成了大量的生命财产损失。东河口滑坡是一种抛射型滑坡,具有与其他如重力或者降雨作用导致的滑坡不同的特点,即没有统一连续的滑动面,由上部比较深陡和下部比较浅缓的截然分开的两部分组成,在强地震加速度的作用下,滑坡体被抛射并在与地面发生碰撞之前沿抛物线轨迹运行。文章综合分析了东河口抛射型滑坡发生的地质地貌条件,并解释了该抛射型滑坡发生的动力源机制。结果显示,东河口滑坡区的滑坡带和翼状裂隙带在北川破裂带两侧的规则分布受控于断层的运动方式和滑坡的空间分布位置;此外,除地震动水平加速度和地质地貌条件外,垂直加速度和断层的运动方式对地震滑坡的激发也起着重要的作用。     

Slope stabilization and landslide size on Mt. 99 Peaks after Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan

The study focuses on the landslide characteristics of Mt. 99 Peaks in Nantou County, the most serious landslide prone area caused by Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan. Several investigations and field surveys were made on Mt. 99 Peaks for 5 years to research the landslide area and depth, rainfall trend, and slope stabilization. The total landslide volume caused by the earthquake on Mt. 99 Peaks was about 1.47×10⁶ m³ and the mean landslide thickness was about 0.22 m. Gravel layers with a volume of more than 80% of total soil profile dominated Mt. 99 Peaks. The landslide on Mt. 99 Peaks was induced by heavy rainfall from July to September because the rainfall on Mt. 99 Peaks had a nonuniform distribution in time. Although the vegetation recovery on Mt. 99 Peaks was in progress, the soil slope had remained unstable. As a result, Typhoon Mindulle occurred in July 2004 collapsed the hillslope again after 5 years of Chichi Earthquake. This study suggests that vegetation recovery on Mt. 99 Peaks for 5 years was insufficient to stabilize the landslide affected area.     

Susceptibility assessments of the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslides in Longnan using logistic regression

In this study a Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility assessment was carried out in the Longnan area in northwestern China using a GIS-based logistic regression model. This region has frequently been affected by landslides in the past, and was intensively affected by the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake which received considerable international attention. The data used for this study consist of the landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake and a landslide pre-disposing factor database. Information regarding the landslide causative factors came from additional data sources, such as a digital elevation model (DEM) with a 30 × 30 m² resolution, orthophotos, geological and land-use maps, precipitation records, and information on peak ground acceleration data from the 2008 earthquake. The statistical analysis of the relationship between the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslides and pre-disposing factors showed the great influence of lithological and topographical conditions on slope failures. The quality of susceptibility mapping was validated by splitting the study area into training and validation sections. The prediction capability analysis demonstrated that the landslide susceptibility map could be used for land planning as well as emergency planning by local authorities.     

Regional landslide susceptibility following the Mid NIIGATA prefecture earthquake in 2004 with NEWMARK’S sliding block analysis

This study proposes a calculation method for regional earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility that applies the permanent seismic displacement calculated using Newmark’s sliding block analysis with estimated vertical and horizontal seismic motions. The proposed method takes into account the direction of slope failure based on the specified slope azimuth. The study results reveal the importance of predominant slope failure direction using a simple infinite slope model subjected to earthquakes. The target area for the earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility analysis constituted a region of more than 2000 km² surrounding the epicenter of the Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake in 2004. An earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility map was created based on the proposed method with a specific combination of friction angle and cohesion, and the resulting data were compared to the landslide inventory map produced from aerial photographs following the Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake in 2004. To create the susceptibility map, geomaterial cohesion values for the slope were back-calculated to satisfy the minimum safety factor in the static state. This study also proposes a calculation method for the prediction rate and determines the back-calculated strength parameters of geomaterials. The proposed regional landslide susceptibility map will be useful for understanding potential slope failure locations and magnitude of damage, as well as for planning field investigation and preventing secondary disasters immediately after earthquakes.     

Evaluating the susceptibility of landslide landforms in Japan using slope stability analysis: a case study of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

This study analyzed 267 landslide landforms (LLs) in the Kumamoto area of Japan from the database of about 0.4 million LLs for the whole of Japan identified from aerial photos by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED). Each LL in the inventory is composed of a scarp and a moving mass. Since landslides are prone to reactivation, it is important to evaluate the sliding-recurrence susceptibility of LLs. One possible approach to evaluate the susceptibility of LLs is slope stability analysis. A previous study found a good correlation (R ² = 0.99) between the safety factor (F _s ) and slope angle (α) of F _s  = 17.3α ^?0.843. We applied the equation to the analysis of F _s for 267 LLs in the area affected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M _j  = 7.3). The F _s was calculated for the following three cases of failure: scarps only, moving mass only, and scarps and moving mass together. Verification with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake event shows that the most appropriate method for the evaluation of LLs is to consider the failure of scarps and moving mass together. In addition, by analyzing the relationship between the factors of slope of entire landslide and slope of scarp for LLs and comparing the results with the Aso-ohashi landslide, the largest landslide caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we also found that morphometric analysis of LLs is useful for forecasting the travel distance of future landslides.