关于Reed-Frost模型的研究和改进

笔者提出了对Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的学术评论，并新建了一种Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的改进模型。该改进模型全面考虑了隐性感染者的产生，传染作用及向免疫者的转化。应用这个模型，模拟了Ｎｅｗ Ｅｎｇｌａｎｄ的麻疹流行和中国上海市某保育院的水痘流行，结果颇为理想。该模型包括基本的流行要因，故能用以解释流行过程，并可帮助流行病学工作者理解隐性感染的传染病流行过程中的作用。     

全面质量管理系统在医院科研处的应用

全面质量管理系统在医院科研处的应用中国生物医学工程学会（１００００５）包玉生介评１９９０年，具有８３１张床位的ＬｅｈｉｇｈＶａｌｌｒ医院基于Ｃｒｏｓｂｙ模型对科研工作开展了全面质量管理（ＴＯＭ）。ＪａｍｅｓＲｅｅｄⅢ等在ＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆＭｅｄｉｃａ...     

美国动态压力医疗用品市场难以扩大

据美国 Ｍｅｄｉｃａｌ Ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ２０００年 １１月 ９ 日报道，大约 １８０ 万患有静脉郁积溃疡的美国公民中有半数正在接受治疗。静脉郁积溃疡是经历静脉郁积过程使下肢静脉内持续高压造成的。 １５０年来，主要依靠压力疗法来治疗这种疾病，但由于动态压力器械制造厂商面临许多实际问题而导致整个市场没有大的增长。 据Ｆｒｏｓｔ＆Ｓｕｌｌｉｖａｎ新近的市场分析，在 １９９９年，美国的伤患护理中，整个压力疗法用品市场年销额总计超过１亿１千５百万美元。 Ｆｒｏｓｔ＆ Ｓｕｌｌｉｖａｎ伤患护理业，分析人员 Ｌａｃｙ Ｒａｉ…     

原发性肾病综合征皮质激素治疗与锌的关系

原发性肾病综合征皮质激素治疗与锌的关系潘健涛，许乃贵，李惠群广州中山医科大学第一附属医院肾内科（广州５１００８０）ＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔＦｏｕｒｔｙ－ｔｈｒｅｅｐｒｉｍａｒｙｎｅｐｈｒｏｔｉｃｓｙｎｄｒｏｍｅｐａｔｉｅｉｔｓｔｒｅａｔｅｄｗｉｔｈｐｒｅｄｉ...     

美国国家毒理学规划讨论转基因小鼠模型

美国国家毒理学规划讨论转基因小鼠模型［英］／ＦｉｓｈｅｒＢＥ∥ＥｎｖｉｒｏｎＨｅａｌｔｈＰｅｒｓｐｅｃｔ．－１９９８，１０６（４）．－Ａ１７７美国国家毒理学规划（ＮＴＰ）科学顾问委员会（ＢＳＣ）于１９９８年２月５日和６日在美国国家环境卫生科学研究所（...     

我国新型恙虫病立克次体目标基因的PCR／RFLR和序列分析研究

为查明江苏恙虫病立克次体（Ｒｔ）流行株目标基因序列特征，构建Ｒｔｔｓａ５６ｋＤａ群、型特异引物，用ＰＣＲ技术进行检测、分型，将群引物扩增产物进行ＲＦＬＰ分析和热循环自动双向测序法进序列测定。结果所构建的Ｒｔｔｓａ５６ｋＤａ的群、型引物具有Ｒｔ的特异性；江苏地区Ｒｔ流行株型别与日本Ｋａｗａｓａｋｉ型相似；群引物扩增产物经ＲＦＬＰ分析，证明该片段ＤＮＡ无ＨｈａⅠ酶切位点；碱基序列测定结果与Ｋａｗａｓａｋｉ型相应ＤＮＡ片段的碱基序列同源性为９６．８７％，而与其它５株Ｒｔ同源性均少于５２％；该片段的ＨｈａⅠ酶切位点ＧＣＧＣ变异为ＧＴＧＣ结构。结果表明江苏地区Ｒｔ株型属于日本Ｋａｗａｓａｋｉ型，但有遗传差异，是我国新发现的株型     

肾综合征出血热Box-Jenkins模型研究

目的：建立肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型。方法：用游程检验对发病序列进行随机性检验。结果：提示ＨＦＲＳ疫苗应在高危人群和高发地区人群中接种；用Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型对建德市ＨＦＲＳ发病作实验预测研究，结果准确。结论：该模型适合于实际预测，不失为疾病预测中快速、准确的模型     

上海地区85种常用食物中的碘含量

上海地区８５种常用食物中的碘含量张卫红，何倩琼，吴其乐（上海市卫生防疫站，上海２００３３５）ＩｏｄｉｎｅＣｏｎｔｅｎｔｓｏｆＥｉｇｈｔｙ－ｆｉｖｅＫｉｎｄｓｏｆＦｏｏｄｉｎＳｈａｎｇｈａｉＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ￥ＺｈａｎｇＷｅｉｈｏｎｇ；ＨｅＱｉａｎｇｕｏ...     

美国药物和食品管理局食品顾问委员会建议批准用Olestra替代脂肪

美国药物和食品管理局食品顾问委员会建议批准用Ｏｌｅｓｔｒａ替代脂肪［英］／ＫｌｅｉｎｅｒＫ…∥ＦｏｏｄＰｒｏｄｕｃｔＤｅｓｉｇｎ．－１９９６，５（１０）．－１７～１８经过９年的观察，ＦＤＡ食品顾问委员会１１月１７日建议ＦＤＡ批准在快餐食品中用脂肪替代...     

球形芽孢杆菌发泡块剂灭致乏库蚊幼虫的效果

作者应用球形芽孢杆菌Ｂｓ－９４１发泡块剂（由本所生产）和Ｂｓ－Ｆｔ发泡块剂（德国提供），在实验室和现场进行灭致乏库蚊的效果比较。室内生物测定结果显示：Ｂｓ－９４１发泡块剂ＬＤ_（６０）为０．０１９３μｇ／ｍｌ，Ｂｓ－Ｆｔ发泡块剂ＬＤ_（６０）为０．００７μｇ／ｍｌ．在３．６～４．０ｍ￣２的现孳生地水池中，两种发泡剂使用剂量为０．５，１．０和１．５ｇ／ｍ￣２，制剂４８ｈ的灭蚊效果均可达１００％，当剂量为０．５ｇ／ｍ￣２时，Ｂｓ－９４１发泡块剂持效达１７天，而Ｂｓ－Ｆｔ发泡块剂只有９天；当剂量上升到１．５ｇ／ｍ￣２时，两种发泡剂的持效均可达到２１天。对照组乳剂Ｂｓ－Ｃ_（３ｃ－４１）的浓度为０．９２μｌ／ｌ（与１．５ｇ／ｍ￣２相当）时，持效为９天，说明本所生产的Ｂｓ发泡块剂在中小型挛生地中比Ｂｓ乳剂持效长，并且超过德国Ｂｓ发泡块剂的效果和持效。     

Inapparent infection of hepatitis A virus

To detect inapparent infection with hepatitis A virus, serial sera were collected from patients with hepatitis A and their contacts in two waterborne epidemics in China. Epidemic 1 occurred in a rural village near Hangzhou during August 1978-January 1979, and epidemic 2 took place in a rural primary school in Pinghu County in Zhejiang in April-May 1985. These sera were tested for antibodies against hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV), serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGPT) activity, and icteric index. Feces also were collected in epidemic 1 to test for hepatitis A virus antigen. Both anti-HAV immunoglobulin M (IgM) and total anti-HAV were assayed in sera from "healthy persons" (symptomless persons without icterus and with normal SGPT level) who were in close contact with hepatitis A patients. In epidemic 1, among 18 "healthy persons", 12 were anti-HAV IgM positive, two were immune, and four susceptibles escaped infection. In epidemic 2, among 32 "healthy children", three were anti-HAV IgM positive, five had been infected by hepatitis A virus in the past, and 24 were not infected. These results demonstrate that inapparent infections occur along with overt and subclinical infections during epidemics of hepatitis A. The proportions of inapparent, subclinical, and overt infections were, respectively, 34.3%, 45.7%, and 20% in epidemic 1, and 25%, 50%, and 25% in epidemic 2. In addition, hepatitis A virus particles were demonstrated in the feces of all infected subjects who were examined and who included all levels of clinical response. These particles were identified with immuno-electron microscopy and enzyme-linked immunoassay.     

Anti-SARS-CoV immunoglobulin G in healthcare workers, Guangzhou, China

To determine the prevalence of inapparent infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) among healthcare workers, we performed a serosurvey to test for immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibodies to the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) among 1,147 healthcare workers in 3 hospitals that admitted SARS patients in mid-May 2003. Among them were 90 healthcare workers with SARS. As a reference group, 709 healthcare workers who worked in 2 hospitals that never admitted any SARS patients were similarly tested. The seroprevalence rate was 88.9% (80/90) for healthcare workers with SARS and 1.4% (15/1,057) for healthcare workers who were apparently healthy. The seroprevalence in the reference group was 0.4% (3/709). These findings suggest that inapparent infection is uncommon. Low level of immunity among unaffected healthcare workers reinforces the need for adequate personal protection and other infection control measures in hospitals to prevent future epidemics.     

Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa

Meningitis epidemics have a strong environmental component in Africa with the most severe epidemics occurring in the Sahelian region known as the Meningitis Belt. The objective of this study is to evaluate an ecological model based on absolute humidity and land cover type to predict the location of these epidemics. The risk model is evaluated prospectively based on epidemics occurring in Africa from January 2000 to April 2004. Seventy-one epidemics occurred during this time period affecting 22% of continental African districts. The model predicted their location with a sensitivity of 88%. The evaluation also suggests that epidemics may be extending south of the Sahel, which is consistent with environmental changes in the region. This model could be used to select priority areas for the introduction of the newly developed conjugate meningococcal vaccines. Further studies are needed to enhance our understanding of the complex relationship between meningitis epidemics and the environment.     

Emerging viral zoonoses: hantavirus infections

Hantaviruses are rodent-borne agents belonging to the Bunyaviridae family. These viruses, which are found throughout Europe, Asia and the Americas, are maintained by different species of rodents, in which they produce chronic, inapparent infections. Humans become infected through contact with urine, saliva or faeces from infected rodents, mainly via the aerosol route. In humans, clinical disease occurs in the form of two major syndromes: haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome mainly occurs in Europe and Asia and HPS has only ever been reported in the Americas. Person-to-person transmission of hantaviruses, although uncommon, was described during an outbreak of HPS in southern Argentina. Most epidemics of HFRS and HPS occur in areas with large populations of rodents that have a relatively high prevalence of infection.     

Modelling of infectious diseases for providing signal of epidemics: a measles case study in Bangladesh

The detection of unusual patterns in the occurrence of diseases is an important challenge to health workers interested in early identification of epidemics. The objective of this study was to provide an early signal of infectious disease epidemics by analyzing the disease dynamics. A two-stage monitoring system was applied, which consists of univariate Box-Jenkins model or autoregressive integrated moving average model and subsequent tracking signals from several statistical process-control charts. The analyses were illustrated on January 2000-August 2009 national measles data reported monthly to the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in Bangladesh. The results of this empirical study revealed that the most adequate model for the occurrences of measles in Bangladesh was the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (3, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model, and the statistical process-control charts detected no measles epidemics during September 2007-August 2009. The two-stage monitoring system performed well to capture the measles dynamics in Bangladesh without detection of an epidemic because of high measles-vaccination coverage.     

海南省疟疾流行空间分布的环境影响因素初步分析

目的 分析海南省疟疾流行空间分布特征及其与自然环境因素的相关性,构建海南省疟疾流行空间分布预测模型.方法 获取2000年海南省雨季(5-10月)各县(市)疟疾发病资料以及气象、土地利用类型构成比、地表温度(LST)和各地平均高程等数据,分析发病率与上述各环境因素的相关性,应用负二项回归分析建立发病率的预测模型,并应用预测模型预测疟疾流行风险的空间分布.结果 海南省2000年雨季各市(县)疟疾发病率与各地的海拔高度、林地面积构成比、草地面积构成比呈显著正相关;与耕地面积构成比、城乡、工矿、居民用地面积构成比、LST呈显著负相关;与水域面积构成比、未利用土地面积构成比、平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、平均极温差、平均相对湿度及降雨量无明显相关性.负二项回归分析引入方程的因子为LST,回归方程为:Ⅰ(月发病率,单位:1/100万)=exp(-1.672-0.399×LST).结论 海南省疟疾流行空间分布与多种环境因素有关,可以利用遥感技术获取有关环境指标来预测疟疾流行风险的空间分布.     

乙肝病毒前S2抗原与相关血清标志物关系探讨

[目的]探讨Pre-S2抗原在乙肝隐、显性感染(尤其是隐性感染)中的地位和应用价值。[方法]2002年3~6月,在湖南省永州市选择部分HBV隐性与显性感染者,检测乙肝血清标志物和Pre-S2抗原。[结果]检测HBV隐性感染者64人,Pre-S2抗原阳性率为64.06%。Pre-S2抗原阳性率,HBeAg阳性者为93.10%,抗-HBe阳性者为60.00%,抗-HBc阳性者为73.47%,前者高于后二者(P<0.05);乙肝“大三阳”与“小三阳”者分别为92.31%、62.50%(P<0.05);急性乙肝患者(22人)、慢性乙肝患者(26人)分别为90.91%、61.54%(P<0.05)。[结论]Pre-S2抗原在判断HBV感染者尤其是隐性感染者血清的传染性强度方面有较高使用价值和补缺作用,在判断隐性感染者的发展转化和显性感染者的临床转归方面亦有重要的参考意义。     

2013年平顶山市手足口病隐性感染调查

目的了解平顶山市健康人群中肠道病毒的隐性感染情况。方法在平顶山市选择手足口病发病率高发地区汝州市,开展健康人群感染状况调查。在2013年采集100例儿童及成人的粪便和咽拭子标本,分4个年龄组,0~3岁、3~7岁、7~16岁、成人组,用实时荧光PCR进行肠道病毒核酸检测。结果合计检测100人次的标本中,阳性21人次,健康人群肠道病毒隐性感染阳性率达21.00%。结论在我市健康人群中肠道病毒隐性感染情况比较普遍。3~7岁儿童为主要感染人群,通常引起手足口病的CA16和EV71亚型的隐性感染在健康人群中较为少见。