核事故实时释放量集合卡尔曼滤波反演算法研究

为探索适用于核事故现场实时释放量的快速反演计算方法,将集合卡尔曼滤波方法和高斯多烟团扩散模型结合,建立了核事故源项释放量集合卡尔曼滤波计算流程,研究讨论了集合成员数、初始值、扰动值对反演结果的影响。模拟仿真实验显示,集合数为50、偏大初始值以及较大扰动值为参数的集合卡尔曼滤波反演较佳,释放积分相对误差在5%以内。研究表明,集合卡尔曼滤波反演核事故源项释放量算法具备有效性和可行性,原则上可实时跟踪反演核事故源项释放量。     

拉格朗日烟团模型的大气扩散系数自适应修正

在核事故后果实时评价系统中,拉格朗日烟团模型作为大气扩散模型得到了广泛应用。大气扩散系数是影响烟团模型的重要参数之一,本文提出一种动态修正拉格朗日烟团模型的大气扩散系数的自适应方法,以提高放射性核素浓度分布计算的准确性。该方法利用观测的核素浓度数据、气象数据和源项释放数据,以最小二乘法实时地对大气扩散系数进行了估计。使用大气扩散模型验证工具MVK中的Kincaid实验数据,将动态大气扩散系数自适应修正方法与传统的以Pasquill-Gifford（P-G）曲线为基础的方法相比较,结果表明,大气扩散系数自适应修正方法能提高拉格朗日烟团模型计算结果的准确性。     

小型动力堆海上核事故后放射性核素在大气和海洋中扩散研究

为准确评估小型动力堆海上严重核事故后释放的气载核素造成的海洋放射性污染水平，以小型动力堆断电诱发的严重核事故为例，建立核素在大气和海洋中扩散的计算模型，计算事故后大气和海洋中137Cs的放射性污染水平，并分析了气载核素释放高度、大气稳定度对沉降核素海洋扩散的影响。结果表明，在一定的释放高度下，源下风轴线上表层海水中核素的时间积分浓度随下风向距离的增大呈先升高后下降的变化规律；在离源一定距离内，释放位置越高，表层海水中核素的时间积分浓度越小；在离源一定距离外，大气越不稳定，表层海水中核素的时间积分浓度越小。      

截断总体最小二乘变分核事故源项反演数值研究

放射性释放源项是核事故应急与事故后果评价的基础。核事故源项反演方法利用事故期间辐射环境监测数据估计事故释放源项。由于其不依赖电厂状态参数，在福岛核事故后被广泛重视。变分核事故源项反演模型（VAR）对释放源项的求解为全局最优，但受大气扩散模型误差的影响较大。为降低大气扩散模型误差对源项估计结果的影响，建立了截断总体最小二乘变分核事故源项反演数值计算模型（TTLS-VAR）。该模型可对扩散模型算子与监测向量进行修正，以提高源项反演的准确性。基于风洞实验数据对TTLS-VAR模型进行验证，结果显示:TTLS-VAR模型对释放源项估计结果的准确性较VAR模型有所提高。      

JRODOS模拟核事故时核素扩散及剂量时空分布

核事故时核素扩散范围和造成的辐射剂量是核电厂事故应急措施制定的重要参考,利用JRODOS软件模拟了不同气象源和大气扩散模型对核电厂核素浓度和辐射剂量时空分布的影响。结果表明:WRF气象场情景下核素的扩散范围广,FNL气象场情景下核素浓度和有效剂量区域均值较高。不同大气扩散模型中LASAT模型模拟的有效剂量最高。这为核事故后果评价数据来源和大气扩散模型选择提供了依据。     

基于风洞实验的丘陵下垫面气溶胶大气扩散特性研究

核电厂正常运行或发生核事故时,会向大气释放一定量的放射性气溶胶,研究气溶胶在复杂下垫面的大气扩散特性对实现气载流出物辐射影响的准确评价具有重要意义。高斯烟羽或烟团模型被广泛用于大气扩散评价中,模型中的扩散参数描述了气溶胶受湍流作用扩散的强弱,需要针对不同的地形如平坦、丘陵下垫面进行校正。本文针对典型下垫面开展了气溶胶大气扩散风洞实验,采用激光粒子图像扩散参数估计方法,针对释放源高度不同的多组工况,统计分析了竖直截面内高分辨率的气溶胶浓度,根据高斯分布估计了下风向烟羽的上下边界及垂直方向扩散参数。结果表明：烟羽经过山体会出现整体抬升现象,这将导致山体后近地表浓度有所下降;烟羽经过山体前后出现浓度中心线两侧浓度分布不均现象,远离山体烟羽轨迹回归类高斯分布;释放源高度小于山体1/2高度的烟羽经过山体后轨迹趋于一致。高斯模型在丘陵下垫面适用度有限。     

拉格朗日法模拟华东核电厂~(137)Cs大气扩散特征影响因子

用拉格朗日法模拟了不同因子对核电厂~(137)Cs大气扩散特征的影响。对华东核电厂在建筑物影响、粒子释放率和释放高度不同参数设置情景下~(137)Cs大气扩散时空分布特征进行模拟。结果表明:考虑建筑物时核电厂80 km范围核素浓度是不考虑建筑物情景的1.0倍。释放高度为65 m时,~(137)Cs浓度是80 m处的1.2倍。粒子释放率对放射性核素浓度的影响甚微。在研究区域尺度核素大气扩散特征时,应重点关注建筑物和释放高度的影响。     

随机游走大气扩散模型在核事故应急中的开发和应用

烟羽浓度预测是核事故早期应急响应放射性后果评价系统的主要内容之一.描述了大气扩散本身随机的特点,介绍了自行开发随机游走大气扩散模型Random Walk,并与现有欧共体开发的核应急决策支持系统RODOS中的拉格朗日烟团模型RIMPUFF进行比较验证.结果表明,两者计算结果相当吻合,但Random Walk计算出的烟羽范围比RIMPUFF计算出的稍小.随机游走大气扩散模型Ran-dom Walk能够较好的模拟核事故发生条件下的大气扩散过程,可以作为核事故应急决策系统的一个大气扩散模块,为早期应急和后果评价提供更接近实际的信息.     

核事故放射性气体扩散及辐射剂量模拟研究

利用修正的高斯烟团模型来简化早期核事故扩散问题,将修正后结果与CALPUFF软件模拟结果对比分析,误差在可接受范围内。根据放射性气体扩散模拟及辐射剂量计算,开发了可视化操作界面,给定初始参数便可简单快速计算得到放射性扩散核素浓度随时间分布以及辐射剂量影响,可为核事故应急预案制备提供依据。     

聚变堆失真空事故下氚的大气扩散模拟研究

聚变反应堆发生失真空事故的情况下氚会泄漏到环境中，氚大气扩散模拟是聚变堆事故后果评价的重要内容。基于高斯烟团模型以及Pasquill稳定度分类方法，考虑重力沉降、烟气抬升、风速等因素的影响，建立了适用于事故下瞬态分析的大气扩散模型，在高斯烟团模型中加入修正了像源贡献的地面反射系数，提高了模型对于地面边界处干沉降的计算效果。选取加拿大氚气释放实验和美国萨凡那河工厂氚释放事故验证了所建立模型的准确性，模型的计算结果与HotSpot 3.0和UFOTRI软件的精度相当。选取国际热核聚变实验堆（International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor,ITER）的失真空事故作为研究对象，分析了氚的分阶段释放、风速以及释放高度对氚扩散分布的影响。结果表明：氚的分阶段释放会导致沿下风向出现两个高放射性区域；释放高度和风速的增加会强化氚在大气中的扩散行为，从而减弱放射性在近场的积聚。     

利用福岛第一核电厂事故期间环境监测资料反推事故释放源项

2011年3月11日,日本福岛核事故导致放射性物质向大气环境的大规模释放。本工作利用大气数值预报模式WRFV2.2.1和大气弥散模式CALPUFF,对事故期间放射性物质的大气输运和弥散进行了模拟。应用大气释放源项的逆推算方法,结合单位释放率条件下的大气弥散模拟结果和环境监测数据,对福岛第一核电厂1到3号机组向大气环境释放的放射性核素总量进行了评估,推算的131I和137 Cs气载释放量分别为8.6×1016 Bq和8.6×1015 Bq。     

Atmospheric-dispersion database system that can immediately provide calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions

ABSTRACT

We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion against atmospheric discharge of radioactive materials due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by atmospheric-dispersion calculation using the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI). On the basis of this experience, we developed an atmospheric-dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs for dispersion prediction in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point, such as a nuclear facility, is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term (released radionuclides, release rate, and release period) to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance without specifying source term. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying many kinds of source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term. By preparing a database by this calculation with past long-term meteorological data, we can immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database is useful for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.     

核事故后果评价研究进展

回顾了国内外在核事故后果评价领域开展的概率风险评价、实时后果评价、事故后的后果评价技术与方法研究的发展历程，对后果评价研究在大气弥散模型的要求与发展、利用环境监测数据估算源项、食物链模型与事故季节性、剂量估算与防护措施、核与辐射突发事件（小尺度）响应、决策支持技术以及放射性物质长距离迁移问题等方面进行了讨论与分析。近年来，随着我国核能事业的迅猛发展，需要加强和发展核事故与突发事件的后果评价和应急响应技术。     

核事故后果评价研究进展

回顾了国内外在核事故后果评价领域开展的概率风险评价、实时后果评价、事故后的后果评价技术与方法研究的发展历程，对后果评价研究在大气弥散模型的要求与发展、利用环境监测数据估算源项、食物链模型与事故季节性、剂量估算与防护措施、核与辐射突发事件（小尺度）响应、决策支持技术以及放射性物质长距离迁移问题等方面进行了讨论与分析。近年来，随着我国核能事业的迅猛发展，需要加强和发展核事故与突发事件的后果评价和应急响应技术。     

小型动力堆核事故后放射性核素海洋大气扩散研究

应用于海洋的小型核反应堆技术日渐成熟，但目前核事故大气扩散研究主要针对于沿海或内陆情况。为使大气扩散计算模型适用于海洋环境，本文对高斯烟羽模型进行了修正，应用MACCS程序研究了小型动力堆严重事故所造成的后果。结果表明，若烟羽未抬升，可溶性核素积分浓度垂直分布受水体影响较大，低空的核素积分浓度明显降低；若烟羽被抬升，源项附近海面的核素积分浓度较低，水体对其产生的影响较小；整个扩散过程中，水体主要影响海面附近核素积分浓度大的区域。     

GA-based dynamical correction of dispersion coefficients in Lagrangian puff model

In atmospheric dispersion models of nuclear accident, the dispersion coefficients were usually obtained by tracer experiment, which are constant in different atmospheric stability classifications. In fact, the atmospheric wind field is complex and unstable. The dispersion coefficients change even in the same atmospheric stability,hence the great errors brought in. According to the regulation, the air concentration of nuclides around nuclear power plant should be monitored during an accident. The monitoring data can be used to correct dispersion coefficients dynamically. The error can be minimized by correcting the coefficients. This reverse problem is nonlinear and sensitive to initial value. The property of searching the optimal solution of Genetic Algorithm(GA) is suitable for complex high-dimensional situation. In this paper, coupling with Lagrange dispersion model, GA is used to estimate the coefficients. The simulation results show that GA scheme performs well when the error is big. When the correcting process is used in the experiment data, the GA-estimated results are numerical instable. The success rate of estimation is 5% lower than the one without correction. Taking into account the continuity of the dispersion coefficient, Savitzky-Golay filter is used to smooth the estimated parameters. The success rate of estimation increases to 75.86%. This method can improve the accuracy of atmospheric dispersion simulation.     

分段烟羽模型和烟团模型在核事故应急中的应用比较

为了研究分段烟羽模型和烟团模型在核事故应急中的适用性 ,对不同流场条件下分段高斯烟羽模型和烟团模型的模拟结果进行了比较。在均匀稳定流场中 ,两种模型的模拟结果相近 ;而在非均匀稳定的流场中 ,分段烟羽模型的模拟结果呈现明显的不连续性。而且对于瞬时释放 ,烟团模型比分段烟羽模型更接近实际情况。通过对模型性能的对比 ,并考虑应急决策支持的要求和我国核电站的厂址条件 ,推荐采用烟团模型     

Application of data assimilation to improve the forecasting capability of an atmospheric dispersion model for a radioactive plume

Modeling an atmospheric dispersion of a radioactive plume plays an influential role in assessing the environmental impacts caused by nuclear accidents. The performance of data assimilation techniques combined with Gaussian model outputs and measurements to improve forecasting abilities are investigated in this study. Tracer dispersion experiments are performed to produce field data by assuming a radiological emergency. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and linear regression filter are considered to assimilate the Gaussian model outputs with measurements. ANFIS is trained so that the model outputs are likely to be more accurate for the experimental data. Linear regression filter is designed to assimilate measurements similar to the ANFIS. It is confirmed that ANFIS could be an appropriate method for an improvement of the forecasting capability of an atmospheric dispersion model in the case of a radiological emergency, judging from the higher correlation coefficients between the measured and the assimilated ones rather than a linear regression filter. This kind of data assimilation method could support a decision-making system when deciding on the best available countermeasures for public health from among emergency preparedness alternatives.     

Development of an Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Accidental Discharge of Radionuclides with the Function of Simultaneous Prediction for Multiple Domains and its Evaluation by Application to the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident

A particle random-walk model GEARN for nuclear emergency response system, Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI), was improved to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in detail around a release point as well as on a regional scale for a transboundary nuclear accident. The main improvement is simultaneous atmospheric dispersion calculations of two nested domains, local and regional areas, achieved by exchanging particle information between the domains. In the application of the model to the Chernobyl accident, the distribution of surface deposition of ¹³⁷Cs was predicted well in the local area around Chernobyl and the European regional area. The improvements were mainly due to the consideration of the reentry of particles from the regional area to the local one and the enhancement of prediction accuracy for precipitation by the nesting calculation in the meteorological model MM5 combined with GEARN. It is concluded that the nesting model developed in this paper is appropriate for nuclear emergencies in which the prediction of both local and regional scale dispersions are required.