Water Conflict Risk due to Water Resource Availability and Unequal Distribution

The aim of this research is to support the assessment of countries’ risks of water conflicts in the immediate future, considering their vulnerability to changes in water availability. The risk of international water conflicts in the 5 years ahead of the year of analysis was estimated based on current water availability and its unequal distribution. Countries were classified by their vulnerability to reductions in water availability. In these vulnerability groups, the links of water availability (TRIP discharges per capita) and its unequal distribution with the risk of water conflicts were explored. The Gini Coefficient was employed to measure the inequalities. Inequalities showed statistically significant positive Logit links with the risk of water conflicts. The greatest risk for volatile conflicts exists for the Asian, South American and African countries, having the lowest water availability and the lowest economic capacity. Increasing inequalities increases the likelihood of water conflicts, suggesting enhancing access to water, to lower the likelihood of water conflicts. South American and Congo River basin countries are only at risk of low-level water conflicts, but have higher risks of conflict escalation, when inequality increases. The risk of North American and Asian water conflicts were modeled well, except in western Asia. The water conflict estimation provided only 11.9 % under-estimations and an accuracy of 54.1 %, globally. Inequalities in water can indicate the risk of water conflicts in the above regions. However, the risk of water conflicts between countries with higher economic capacity in the European continent showed no link with inequality. This study will facilitate the estimation of the risk of water conflicts resulting from climate change.     

珠江流域跨省河流水事矛盾及处理措施初探

珠江流域省际边界地区水利情况复杂,水事矛盾虽不算突出,但一些水事矛盾和纠纷已对当地的经济发展和社会稳定产生了一定影响,应引起重视。在分析珠江流域现有的各类水事纠纷的特征和存在问题的基础上,总结以往调处水事纠纷的经验和不足,针对各类水事纠纷提出相应的对策措施。     

国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度研究

针对当前国际水电工程项目群施工资源易发生冲突的情形,提出了基于云模型的资源冲突风险测度方法。明确了国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险的概念,建立了包括人力资源、机械设备、材料、财务、组织协作和现场条件6个一级风险因子及20个二级风险因子的资源冲突风险因子体系;采用云模型和德尔菲法确定每个风险因子对应的权重云,并运用逆向云发生器和正态云拟合运算规则求得定性因子的综合云。用建立的模型对国际某水电工程项目群的资源冲突风险进行测度,结果表明该项目群的资源冲突风险状态为良好。由构建的国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度模型能较好地获得了资源冲突风险的测度值,为我国水电企业更好地进行国际工程项目群风险管理提供了参考价值。     

湖北省水库移民矛盾及化解机制研究

以地方移民管理机构登记的移民信访量和信访记录作为移民矛盾的主要表现形式，对湖北省30个主要移民安置县市区2010~2012年移民信访数量和信访内容进行了汇总，总结了水库移民社会矛盾的特点，分析了社会矛盾、自然矛盾和心理矛盾3种类型的移民矛盾及表现形式。提出通过提高政策体系的效率、多部门参与联动化解移民矛盾、逐步淡化移民身份、帮助移民脱贫致富等措施来解决移民矛盾。     

博弈论在水资源冲突中应用的研究进展

与传统的定量分析方法和最优化方法相比,博弈论能更好地识别和模拟水资源冲突主体的决策机制,并考察不同冲突间的相互作用机制。通过梳理和归纳有关文献,分别从水资源配置冲突、跨界水污染冲突和水资源冲突协调机制3个方面,对博弈论在解决水资源冲突中的运用进行了综述,并在此基础上提出了研究展望。鼓励运用市场经济宏观调控机制解决流域水资源水量和水质双重利用冲突;流域初始水权分配定量化有待深入研究。     

Social conflicts and their remedies in the distribution of canal water: Case study of the Damodar valley irrigation project,India

Lower availability of water in canals has caused damage of control structures, breach of minors and sub‐minors and erection of cross bunds to obtain water for crops. This misappropriation has resulted in inter‐ and intra‐village conflicts in the area of the Damodar Valley Irrigation Project in West Bengal. The conflicts are mostly caste based, as is prevalent in Northern India, and subject to political involvement. In the head reach the conflicts over the distribution of water are solved by the intervention of village‐level institutions with the help of community development blocks and irrigation officials. But in the tail reach the village‐level institutions and government officials have played a very limited role in resolving the conflicts. This article examines the nature and causes of the conflicts and some solutions are suggested.     

The precautionary principle and international conflict over domestic regulation: mitigating uncertainty and improving adaptive capacity.

Disputes over invocation of precaution in the presence of uncertainty are building. This essay finds: (1) analysis of past WTO panel decisions and current EU-US regulatory conflicts suggests that appeals to scientific risk assessment will not resolve emerging conflicts; (2) Bayesian updating strategies, with commitments to modify policies as information emerges, may ameliorate conflicts over precaution in environmental and security affairs.     

An alternative framework for analysing and managing conflicts in integrated water resources management (IWRM): linking theory and practice

Research on water resource conflicts needs to be better aligned with practitioner approaches to water resources development, chiefly integrated water resources management (IWRM). This paper bridges the gap between research and practice through a novel application of the social–ecological systems framework to a set of 10 conflict cases from an IWRM initiative in rural Central America. The conflicts in the empirical cases are found to be primarily the result of socio-political variables, particularly low levels of trust and social capital, and peacebuilding is suggested as a promising approach to address this suite of conflicts. The paper concludes with a proposed course of research designed to further both theoretical and applied knowledge of water resource conflicts.     

基于减法集对势的漳河上游水资源冲突风险评价与态势分析研究

为有效预防漳河上游水资源冲突,积极维护地区水安全,科学合理地评价水资源冲突风险和预测风险态势演化尤为重要。基于水量、用水效率、水质、生态环境和社会经济等5个维度构建了水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析框架,运用熵权法和集对分析理论构建了基于减法集对势的水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析模型,对漳河上游2011-2020年的水资源冲突风险进行评价,通过五元减法集对势动态分析风险发展态势。结果表明：漳河上游水资源冲突风险水平较低且呈现下降的态势;3个省份水资源冲突风险等级由高到低依次为山西省、河北省、河南省。从水资源冲突的5个维度来看,河北省需重点关注水量和用水效率引起的冲突风险,河南省整体情况较好,山西省则需重点关注水量、水质和社会经济引起的冲突风险。研究结果对识别漳河上游水资源冲突风险、缓解水事纠纷和维护地区稳定具有重要的现实意义。     

Water,Wastewater, and Environmental Security Problems: A Case Study of Mexico City and the Mezquital Valley

ABSTRACT

Increasing social tensions and conflicts can now be observed due to growing water scarcities and higher wastewater discharges in many parts of the world. These conflicts can be analyzed in two ways. First, a social conflict can be responsible for creating water scarcity by reducing accessibility, destroying water systems, and reducing water availability. Second, water resources scarcity, both in terms of quantity and quality, can often be the cause of conflicts in a society. The article focuses on the second type of conflict by analyzing several examples from Mexico: especially conflicts that have been generated by the use of the wastewaters of Mexico City for irrigation in the Mezquital Valley since 1912.     

基于协商对策的群决策模型及其在跨流域调水方案优选中的应用

本文分析了调水方案决策的多目标性和群决策性特点,研究基于"满意原则"的多人多目标决策模型。重点针对决策者利益的有限冲突性,提出基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型。以辽宁省"引细入汤"工程方案决策为例,构筑了由冲突双方和仲裁方组成的三方仲裁局势,并详细阐述模型的求解过程。该模型在满足公平性原则前提下,兼顾了冲突双方及整体利益,具有较强的可操作性和实用性。     

Unpacking water conflicts: a reinterpretation of coordination problems in China’s water-governance system

In China, water conflicts have been traditionally framed as the external costs of economic development and tackled with technocratic measures. This study examines water conflicts through the lens of water diversion, water allocation and water functional zoning. It reframes water conflicts as a result of coordination problems nested in complex inter-jurisdictional interactions. With a game-theoretic illustration, it identifies that individual and group heterogeneities are two challenges to effective coordination. It argues that China’s state-centric water institutions are tailored to optimize overall social utilities, yet they constrain coordination due to insufficient costs and benefits redistribution mechanisms at the local level.     

政府投资项目治理机制研究

对于政府投资项目契约组织中的政府业主而言,运用基于传统委托代理理论的激励约束机制对项目业主进行激励时存在着不可避免的矛盾。从项目治理的角度出发,运用内部治理机制和外部治理机制,结合传统委托代理理论,可以克服这个矛盾,实现对项目业主的有效激励,从而使项目契约组织各方利益共赢。     

水电站机电安装工程空间优化研究

文中提出的空间优化模型，通过把空间抽象成是一种有限供应量的资源的形式，利用资源有限—工期最短的网络计划优化方法对机电安装空间冲突问题进行了解决，获得了一个空间不冲突的优化进度方案．并通过一个工程实例说明了模型的应用过程。     

黑河流域水资源分析与合理利用

长期以来,黑河流域水资源总量的不足诱发了上下游之间、经济用水与生态和环境之间等一系列用水矛盾。针对当前黑河流域水资源利用存在的问题,通过介绍黑河流域的自然及社会经济状况,并对黑河流域的水文条件做了分析,总结归纳了黑河流域水资源不合理利用的种种因素,提出了一些解决方法:必须改变传统的、以牺牲生态环境为代价的经济发展模式;社会经济发展应充分考虑流域水资源的制约条件;借助政府的宏观调控,在时间、空间上合理利用和优化配置黑河流域的水资源,并适时安排好农业和工业等的生产。     

新形势下迫切需要加强和创新水资源社会管理

水资源短缺对我国经济社会发展的制约作用越来越大。由此而产生的水资源社会矛盾将会更加凸显,甚至可能演化成比较严重的社会冲突,需要高度重视和加强水资源社会管理,创新水资源社会管理思路,积极应对今后日益严重的水资源社会矛盾和冲突。     

Applying Water Vulnerability Indexes for River Segments

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis and application of the indexes of water-use conflict in water resources management (i_cm) and planning (i_cp) for the Grande river basin, aiming at identifying potential water-use conflicts and thus providing a basis for the water resources management organization of Bahia state, Brazil. In order to apply the indexes, the minimum reference outflow (Q₉₀) and the long-term average streamflow (Q_lt) were estimated. Water demand was obtained from the water grant database from the Institute of the Environment and Water Resources of the State of Bahia. The results showed that in six stream segments of the basin, the legal water-use grant limit was exceeded. Some advantages of using these indexes are the possibility of assessing water scarcity at a river segment level and the fact that they provide a spatial analysis of potential conflicts in a basin. The analysis of water availability at the drainage segment level allows the management organization to act locally for the mitigation of water-use conflicts or to plan solutions for imminent conflicts.     

区域水资源供求失衡及解决机制研究

借助有效的制度安排可以解决因水资源供求失衡引起的水资源冲突问题。本文从引起水资源冲突的根本原因出发,分析了因区位水资源禀赋差异、水资源用途转换、政府与用水户间的目标差异、用水户间的用水行为差异引致的用水冲突解决机制及其运作机理。研究表明,建立水权交易制度、水资源转换补偿机制、信息共享机制和协商谈判机制以及完善法律法规制度,是有效解决水资源冲突的制度安排。     

基于HAZOP-LOPA的水利工程空间冲突风险评价

为分析水利水电工程中空间冲突的解决方案及其经济性,运用危险与可操作性研究方法(HAZOP)和保护层分析方法(LOPA)对空间冲突的措施进行评价。分析水利水电工程施工特点,运用HAZOP识别水利水电施工过程中潜在的空间冲突。针对可能遇到的空间冲突列出相应的安全措施。采用LOPA对各安全措施进行评价,研究其失效概率,并通过比较采取安全措施所耗费资金与空间冲突所带来损失的金额多少,判断是否应该采取安全措施。结果表明:在发现空间冲突时立即采取措施,从降低工程成本的角度来看可能并不可取;而运用HAZOP-LOPA分析评价空间冲突安全措施的经济性之后,再决定是否采取措施,可以有效地降低工程成本。     

A Framework for Conflict Resolution

This article presents a comprehensive model on conflict resolution that can be used for both solving actual water management conflicts and for guiding further research. The model is based on a literature study and integrates the several approaches found to help overcome the limitations of the individual approaches. The model consists of four parts. First, three possible sources of conflicts are inventoried and their interrelations are discussed. Second, the “basic mechanisms” for addressing the individual sources of conflict are presented. The third part consists of a short overview of the different conflict resolution methods and procedures that can be applied to make these mechanisms operational in practice. The fourth part of the model is a discussion of the contextual factors influencing conflicts and conflict resolution, with special emphasis on cultural factors. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications for the conflict resolution practice and for research.