苍山5.2级地震前的R（t）图异常特征及其时间变化

研究了１９９５年苍山５．２级地震前地震时空分布参数Ｒ（ｔ）图的异常变化,由Ｒ（ｔ）图清楚的反映出苍山５．２级地震前地震活动的三个阶段性发展特征。即早期地震活动增强,形成大的孕震空区;中期在上述背景上震活动再次向外围扩散并收缩,地震活动逐渐减弱,孕震空区缩小;晚期地震活动出现短平静;临震前１８天孕震空区内出现３个特征前震,在孕震空区内形成临震地震线。     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震前地震活动异常特征

分析了汶川地震前地震活动时空演化特征．结果表明:①汶川地震前38a龙门山断裂带及其附近形成5级地震背景空区,震前6.5a形成ML4.0地震孕震空区,震前1a孕震空区内部及其两端相继发生多次ML4.0—5.0地震,空区缩小;②中国大陆西部及邻区2001年以来处于大震活跃时段,而中国大陆内部地震活动水平非常低,出现非常显著的7级、6级和5级地震平静;③南北地震带7级以上地震在时间上具有准周期特征,空间上存在由南向北迁移的特点,汶川地震的发生符合这一规律;④1998年以来南北地震带中段为7级地震空段,汶川地震就发生该空段内;⑤2003年云南大姚地震后,南北地震带地震活动显著增强,且在中、南段形成4.6级以上地震环形分布,四川及其附近表现为异常平静,同时震群活动显著,且在4.6级地震平静区内形成震群空区,汶川地震就发生震群空区的边缘,震前8个月,震群频度出现高值异常;⑥汶川地震前7个月,青藏块体大范围ML≥4.0地震平静103d,2008年1月13日以后平静区逐渐解体,至汶川地震前４级地震平静区缩小到巴颜喀拉地块,汶川地震就发生在巴颜喀拉地块的东边界带上,汶川地震前3 个多月,孕震空区内部出现NW走向的3级地震条带,与龙门山断裂带斜交．      

山东苍山5.2级地震活动背景及震前地震活动

分析了山东苍山５２级地震前的历史地震活动、现今中小地震活动的时空分布及地震活动的异常特征。表明,苍山５２级地震强度和空间分布与历史地震活动强度和空间分布特征相一致,并具有某些大震的异常特征,震前出现了长达１２ａ的背景空区,出现了“信号震”和孕震空区,出现了多种测震学指标异常等。     

青藏高原北部地区弱震空间图像特征与中短期地震预测方法

通过对青藏高原北部地区31次地震的研究,确定了震前地震活动图像的中短期预测指标以及中期向短期过渡的异常判据及预测方法。研究结果表明,中强地震前普遍存在地震空区、弱震条带、前兆地震或震群、地震活动增强和平静等异常图像,所表现出的异常时间存在很大的差异。具有中短期特征的弱震空区(段)和条带一般出现在震前1～3a,平均持续时间1a,在空区解体后1～6个月发生地震。大多数前兆地震或震群活动属于短临异常,一般出现在震前几天至6个月,震级差为1．0～2．3,距离震中5～60km,空间上主要集中在祁连山地震带。地震活动增强以应力集中为主,属于短期异常特征。异常图像在时间上表现为中期阶段以孕震空区、弱震条带、地震活动增强和平静等异常,异常比较显著且不同步;短临阶段出现前兆地震和地震空区停止活动而形成的临震前的相对平静。异常图像在空间上具有较明显的分区性,与区域活动构造有一定的关系。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动图像演变特征

昆仑山口西8．1级地震的孕育过程以地震空间图像的递进演变为特征,可分为三个阶段：1959年以来M≥6地震围成背景空区的阶段,1994年以来M≥5地震围成孕震空区的阶段和震前4个月的“逼近地震空区”阶段．在孕震空区的末期,青藏块体及中国西部出现了1～2年的地震奈带;伴随逼近地震空区的形成,还出现了较大范围的小震平静．最后讨论了中国大陆西部8级地震的时空演变特征。     

青藏高原东北部强震成组孕震特征初探

通过对1986年门源6．4级地震以来青藏高原东北部发生的一系列6级强震时空分布特征的研究，提出了这些地震为成组孕震的观点，并从背景空区、诱发地震、地震活动增强及前兆异常的突变等方面论证了成组孕震的可能性。     

2003年巴楚-伽师6.8级地震中短期异常与预测

对2003年2月24日P楚—伽师6．8级地震中短期异常和中短期预测进行了较系统的分析与总结。结果认为,6．8级地震前新疆6级地震平静4年多,5级地震平静2年,中期阶段地震平静显著;短期阶段5级地震显著增强,震源区出现前震活动,同时全疆定点前兆观测资料出现较为明显的短期异常并观测到少量的临震异常。不同孕震时段的异常特征是6．8级地震中短期预测的依据,因而也是当前经验预报的基础。     

2003年北黄海5.1级地震的地震活动特征

对2003年北黄海5．1级地震的地震活动背景、地震序列、震中周围中小地震活动图像及地震学参数等进行了详细分析。认为该次地震为前-主-余型，经历了一个活跃-平静-发震的过程；地震前震中附近出现了孕震空区和一些地震活动性参数异常。     

1988年澜沦—耿马强震前的地震活动性

本文讨论了1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马7.6、7.2级强震前的时空分维、地震活动图象、b 值、频度及应变能变化特征,表明:①时间分维 D_t 在强震前两年下降.空间分维 D_s 在强震前一年下降②4级以上地震从1966年至1977在澜沧—耿马地区形成了长轴为340千米的背景空区,自1978年始,其西南部分地震密集发生,东北部分仍保持围空;3级以上地震自1987年迅速形成了长轴为216千米的孕震空区和密集区;强震则发生在空区和密集区的交接地带;3级孕震空区内的2.5～2.9级地震从1988年4月开始平静。③b 值在孕震空区变化幅度比较大,而频度和应变能在孕震密集区变化幅度比较大。     

2009年2月20日柯坪5．2级地震前异常分析

分析了2009年2月20日柯坪5．2级地震前柯坪块体地震活动和前兆异常。柯坪5．2级地震前5、6级地震异常平静,4级地震平静达到了“十五”项目总结的异常指标,且震前1个半月2级以上地震“成片”向震中附近地区迁移;震前乌什水管仪、阿合奇地倾斜和巴楚土层应力存在不同程度的中短期异常和临震异常。     

共和7.0级地震前地震活动特征

本文从背景性地震活动、地震活动的时空分布以及前兆震群活动等基本特征出发，分析了共和地震前地震活动的异常特征。结果说明，共和地震是发生在青藏高原北部地震区地震活动增强的背景中。震前２０年存在着中强地震空区。震前２－３年几乎同步出现了多种测震学异常。但无短临信息的前震活动。     

1976年松潘7.2级地震主要预报依据的审查及前兆异常特征的讨论

1976年8月16日四川省松潘7.2级地震,震前曾作了预报。本文介绍了这次地震预报的主要依据和地震前兆异常的主要特点。     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

Introduction The MS=8.1 earthquake occurred in west of the Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. It is the greatest earthquake occurred in China since the last half of the century and is an important event in recent seismic history of China. Some specialists consider that the earthquake occurred in the area where the earthquake monitoring capability is lowest in Chinese mainland; no striking precursory seismicity was found. The study on the precursory seismicity before the earthquake has not b…     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Seismicity variations in the Makran region of Pakistan and Iran: Relation to great earthquakes

Teleseismic activity in the Makran region of southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan prior to the great earthquake (M_s=8) of 1945 can be characterized in terms of two stages. First, during the period 30 (or more) to 10 years prior to the main event, the frequency of occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes was relatively high in the region between the impending rupture zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest. These events probably occurred near the down-dip limit of seismic activity within the subducted slab. Second, activity was concentrated along the coast during the ten years immediately preceding the great earthquake and most of this activity was confined to the vicinity of the epicenter of the 1945 earthquake. These patterns are similar in some respects to those observed prior to some large earthquakes in other parts of the world.Three observations concerning the pre-1945 seismicity suggest it was associated with the preparation for rupture of the zone that eventually broke during the great earthquake in 1945: (1) The activity before 1945 is located either within the 1945 rupture zone or between this zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest; (2) No activity of similar magnitude and occurrence rate is observed elsewhere along the Makran plate boundary; and (3) The region that was active prior to 1945 has been relatively quiet since the decline in aftershock activity associated with the 1945 shock. The current quiescence may be related to the release of stress during the 1945 earthquake.Recent seismicity in the region west of that affected prior to 1945 suggests that this western region may be the site of the next large earthquake. Events along the coast are grouped at both ends of a seismically quiet zone, producing a distribution similar to the donut pattern identified by Mogi. In addition, one moderate-magnitude earthquake occurred within the subducted slab to the northwest of the donut pattern along the coast. This moderate-magnitude earthquake, the first to occur in the region immediately west of the 1945 rupture zone since the advent of instrumental recording, may be analogous to the activity of stage one associated with the 1945 earthquake. While by no means providing conclusive evidence of an impending earthquake, the characteristic patterns identified in the recent seismicity indicate that this region should be closely monitored in the future.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution Number 2853.     

山东苍山5.2级地震前地震活动特征

从小震活动的时空分布以测震学参数的变化出发，分析了苍山地震前地震活动的异常特下，研究结果表明，苍山５．２级地震前出现了地震活动的图像和几种中，短期测震学参数，异常，但无明显短临信息的前震活动。     

中国大陆地震震例异常统计与分析

以1986～1999年中国大陆地震震例为基础, 对中国大陆及其不同分区的测震和前兆异常进行了统计与分析。 研究结果认为: 地震异常数目、 异常站点和项次百分比随着震级的增大而增多; 震级高异常出现的时间早, 异常范围大; 中期异常多于短期异常, 短期异常多于临震异常, 目前还缺少较多有效的观测到短临异常的方法。 测震中的频度、 空区、 b值、 缺震、 条带、 地震窗、 前兆震(群)、 地震活动分布、 应变释放测项和前兆中的水化学、 水物理、 地形变、 地电测项是出现较多的异常测项。 不同的区域异常出现率高的测震和前兆测项不同, 显示出区域差异。     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震前中源地震活动特征研究

研究2001年昆仑山口西地震和2008年汶川地震前的中源地震活动特征,与唐山地震前的特征进行比较,发现:3次大地震前曾发生6或7次h≥60 km的中源地震,且"大震前中源地震活跃的时间跨度T"约5年或5年多。这是大震前中源地震活动最主要的两个特征,包含了孕育大地震的一些重要信息。其他特征还有:中源地震的活动—平静交替、临近大地震前的地震平静、呈条带分布和(或)地震空区等特征,这与大震前壳内地震活动性的一些特征类似。     

唐山大震前的地震空区和围空地震的机理

本文通过分析区域小震活动的变异,指出:1)唐山大震前不同震级下限的围空图象,实际上是唐山附近的地震平静和外围三支小震条带活动,二者合成的结果;2)空区边缘的应力集中和地震活动增强,主要是断裂带活动的结果.最后用强度和应力分布不均匀的断层模式讨论了围空图象形成的力学过程.