Short-term trends in crime and delinquency: A comparison of UCR,NCS, and self-report data

This study examines short-term (five- to ten-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency. The focus is on FBI Index offenses, but less serious offenses are also considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered.     

Rational cops,rational robbers,and information

The effectiveness of punishment as a deterrent to crime is commonly held to be a function of the severity and certainty of sanctions. The negative association found between crime rates and lagged clearance rates, which previously has been interpreted as a deterrence effect, is shown in this analysis to be largely an artifact of a misspecified measurement procedure. A more plausible hypothesis that police decision makers are informed and thus respond to changes in crime by allocating resources and making more arrests is supported by evidence from St. Louis data.     

THE RELATIONSHIP OF POLICE AND CRIME

This study develops a model to measure the impact of police expenditure on crime rates across cities. It specifically allows for the two-way relationship between police and crime. Other things being equal, cities with more police per capita should have lower crime rates, if police reduce crime. Simultaneously, the higher the crime rate, the greater the public demand for police. In its final formations, the model contains two identifiable equations with two endogenous variables, police expenditure per capita and the crime rate. Following a discussion of the reliability of crime statistics, the model is estimated by two-stage least squares, using FBI crime data for 119 cities in 1960. These two-stage results are compared with ordinary least-square estimation results and are found to be clearly superior.     

Police Strikes and Conventional Crime

Employing FBI "Return A Record Card" data, this study examines the impact of municipal police strikes on reported rates of burglary, robbery, larceny, and auto theft in 11 U.S. cities. Relationships reflecting the view that police presence is essential for crime prevention and social order are examined for variation duration of police strike, city size, and offense category. Overall, analysis yields very limited support for the police presence argument, suggesting that strikes have neither a significant nor a systematic impact on rates of reported crime. Implications of findings for the formulation of police policy are discussed.     

A longitudinal analysis of the arrest-crime relationship: A further examination of the tipping effect

This study examines the contextual effect of arrest clearance rates, over time, on the arrest-crime relationship. The bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses of monthly crime and arrest data for seven Pennsylvania cities for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft suggest that the deterrent effect of arrests on crime is probably limited to smaller cities whose police department are able to clear an appreciable proportion of crimes over time, through arrests.     

REEXAMINING SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY USING CALLS TO THE POLICE AS A MEASURE OF CRIME*

This study examines social disorganization theory using calls to the police during 1980 in 60 Boston neighborhoods. These data, based on complainant reports of crime rather than official police reports, allow further investigation of differences in findings based on victimization data and official crime data. The rates of assault, robbery, and burglary are regressed on poverty, mobility, racial heterogeneity, family disruption, and structural density. Interaction terms for poverty and heterogeneity, poverty and mobility, and mobility and heterogeneity are also explored. Results from this study support findings from recent victimization studies and earlier ecological studies using official counts of crime. Poverty and heterogeneity, along with family disruption and structural density, are found to be important ecological variables for understanding the distribution of crime rates among neighborhoods.     

Effect of broken windows enforcement on clearance rates

Originating in the New York City Transit System, “broken windows” enforcement has become a widely implemented policing strategy. Research testing the effectiveness of focused enforcement upon minor offenses and “uncivil” behaviors, however, has been inconclusive. There has been no study which has addressed broken windows enforcement as an explanatory factor for clearance rates. Most previous research on clearance rates were completed more than two decades ago, well before the implementation of structured broken windows enforcement. Utilizing official crime data for the thirty-five largest municipal police agencies in Texas from 1990 through 2004, this research examined the relationship between broken windows enforcement and clearance rates for UCR Part I offenses. Using hierarchical multivariate linear modeling (HMLM) analysis to capitalize upon the longitudinal characteristics of the data allowed examination of the influence of broken windows enforcement across a wide spectrum of agencies over a long time period.Broken windows enforcement showed inconsistent results across the different crime types. Broken windows enforcement had a positive impact on the clearance rates for burglaries and a marginal impact on auto theft clearance rates. In the case of larceny clearance, greater levels of broken windows arrests actually had a negative relationship. For all of the offense categories, the number of sworn officers was negatively related to the clearance rates. Crime per officer measures showed negative significant effect on the clearance rates for the property offense categories.     

ARE UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS A VALID INDICATOR OF THE INDEX CRIMES? AN AFFIRMATIVE ANSWER WITH MINOR QUALIFICATIONS*

For more than two decades, the validity and reliability of official statistics on crime have been treated as highly questionable. Recently a number of studies have investigated the construction of official statistics on crime and issues related to their reliability and validity. However, there has been no recent attempt to bring together and evaluate these studies; thus, we do not know what official statistics mean and how we should interpret them. In the present paper it is argued that it is now possible to develop an understanding of what official statistics measure. It appears that both citizens and the police are in general agreement about what a serious crime is: it involves bodily injury (or serious threat of bodily injury), the property stolen is of high value, the act is committed by a stranger, or it involves breaking and entering. The authors argue that the perceived seriousness of the crime, first and primarily as defined by the victim, second as determined by the police, apparently accounts for most of the variance in whether a crime is reported and officially recorded; personal characteristics of the offender and victim have only minor effects. It is concluded that the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), as measured by the FBI Index of Crime, are valid indicators of serious crimes as defined by the citizenry. The evidence supporting this conclusion is very substantial with regard to motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and homicide, while with larceny, rape, and aggravated assault, the evidence supporting this conclusion is substantial but does require the interpretation of conflicting evidence.     

CRIME AND THE POLICE A Multivariate Analysis

In an effort to assess the correlates of the variations in the rate of crime aggregated at a city level, data are analyzed using multiple correlation analysis that includes indicators of socioeconomic and social control (police) characteristics of the cities The results indicate that the rate of police and money budgeted to police contributes little to the explained variation in rates of crime. In addition, these indicators of social control variations do not correlate with variations in clearance rates The data are interpreted in terms of their implications for public policy, evaluation of police, and deterrence theory.     

Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

PRODUCING PERSONAL SAFETY: THE EFFECTS OF CRIME RATES, POLICE FORCE SIZE, AND FEAR OF CRIME

Aggregate data from a sample of 23 Canadian cities are used to examine relationships among crime rates, police staffing rates, fear of crime, and citizens'crime prevention behaviors. Bivariate and path analyses reveal positive correlations between fear of crime and parallel production (crime prevention behaviors) and negative impacts of police force size on such behaviors. Crime rates have both direct and indirect positive effects (via fear of crime) on parallel production. while police force size does not have any real effect on fear of crime.     

Self-report and official measures: A further examination of the validity issue

The relationship between self-report and official measures of crime remains unclarified. Adequate examinations of the comparability of the two measures have been limited because of the difficulty of obtaining both official and self-report data on the same subjects. In the present study, the authors use police records and self-report data on police contacts for members of a birth cohort, and find a substantial level of agreement between the two data sources. However, by incorporating data on police contact seriousness and a variety of demographic characteristics, the authors find some evidence of under- and over-reporting by various groups of cohort members. The authors suggest reasons for both the over- and under-reporting, and offer suggestions for future research.     

Clearing Crime in Prime-Time: The Disjuncture Between Fiction and Reality

Crime dramas provide entertainment to millions of Americans. The impact of viewing these programs on perceptions and expectations of police is a concern for practitioners, researchers and policy makers. While a growing body of research is identifying factors associated with the probability of clearance in offenses reported to police, a dearth of research looks at the portrayal of police efficiency in apprehending offenders in popular crime dramas. This study examines the depictions of police investigations across four fictional crime dramas. The authors find offenses are cleared at much higher rates than national averages and that several case characteristics typically associated with clearance in actual cases do not share the same relationship in these fictional programs. Results indicate substantial variation between programs in the depiction of the collection and utility of DNA evidence in assisting investigators to identify suspects. Findings are discussed in relation to data collected from actual police departments.     

A contextual analysis of crime rates: The Korean case<Superscript>⋆</Superscript>

During recent attempts to understand crime in relation to its environments, studies have focused on a single aspect of either economic or organizational context. Furthermore, scant attention has been given to the independent role of the political influence on response to criminal activity. This study examines the relative roles of economic conditions, organizational constraints of police, and political climate in explaining changes in crime rates by incorporating these three contexts into a single study. By using a variety of official statistics, we conducted time-series analyses to examine the social context of crime over the past three decades in South Korea. Findings indicate, first, that the unemployment rate is the best predictor of changes in crime rates; it consistently increased the level of both property and violent crimes. Second, organizational capacity, as indicated by police per capita, is found not to have any consistent effect on crime rates. Third, the impact of political repression, measured by the presence of extraordinary laws and the number of political prisoners, also shows inconsistent effects on crime. However, crime rates were somewhat lower during the past three military regimes, which support the argument that authoritarian governments exercised more punitive sanctions to deter crimes. Implications are discussed and suggestions are offered for future research on this topic.This work was supported by Korean Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2004-003-BO0142). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2004 mettings of the American Society of Criminology. We would like to thank Ivan Sun for his insightful comments and helpful suggestions.     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

DEMOGRAPHY,POLICE BEHAVIOR,AND DETERRENCE *

This paper presents a model of police response to changes in crime frequencies and a criminal response model characterizing the deterrent effects of police arrest behavior. These models are estimated for data taken from police department records in the city of St. Louis. The underlying theoretical conception is that arrests constitute communication to criminals in general in addition to the specific deterrence achieved through the arrest it see Disaggregation in both space and time enables identification of the statistical models through measurement rather than through statistical manipulation. The models are estimated for burglaries under varying demographic conditions and using data organized through aggregation in time (by weeks) and space (by census tracts). Under some demographic conditions, both police response and deterrent effects on criminal behavior are enhanced. Under other demographic conditions, these effects are suppressed. Enhancements and attenuations arising from specific demographic conditions for both the police response and criminal response models have a similar pattern, consistent with the underlying communication hypothesis.     

The influences of incident and contextual characteristics on crime clearance of nonlethal violence: A multilevel event history analysis

Using multilevel event history analyses, this article investigates the effects of both incident and contextual (social disorganization and police resources) factors on crime clearance by arrest for robbery, forcible rape, and aggravated assault incidents in 106 cities. The analysis found that victim's age, the number of concomitant offenses and victims, victim's injury, and weapon use played important roles in crime clearance for all three types of nonlethal violent incidents. Among social disorganization variables, higher unemployment and racial segregation significantly decreased the odds of clearance for robbery and aggravated assault, but not for rape. Instead, higher divorce rates significantly decreased the odds of rape clearance. This suggests that social disorganization may play a different role in the clearance mechanisms for sexual than for nonsexual violent offenses. The effects of police resource variables on clearance were not significant in the expected direction for any of the three types of incidents.     

The Effects of a School Policing Program on Crime,Discipline, and Disorder: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

This study analyzes the impacts of school-based law enforcement officers on school crime, disciplinary actions, and disciplinary problems in 238 middle and high schools in West Virginia using a non-equivalent groups design and three years of data. Propensity score weights are utilized to reduce selection biases resulting from non-random group assignment in observational data. Binary and multinomial logistic treatment models are used when estimating treatment effects to examine whether the extent to which police officers are present in schools impacts problem outcomes. Findings indicated that while the presence of school police officers increased drug-related crimes and out-of-school suspensions for drug crimes regardless of whether they were present in schools for a single year or multiple years, there were deterrent effects observed for violent crimes and incidents of disorder when police officers were present in schools during all school years. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.

     

POLICE EMPLOYMENT AND SUBURBAN CRIME

Although politicians, police, and others have often advocated the expansion of police employment in the effort to control crime, the empirical relationship between police employment and crime rates has seldom been systematically explored. This study incorporates variables which are causally related both to crime and police employment roles for the 252 northern and northeastern suburbs for which police employment and crime data are available for 1970–1972. Separate analyses of violent and property crime are undertaken, incorporating data on police employment as a causally related variable along with several other determinants of crime identified in earlier studies. The analysis suggests that police employment and crime rates are reciprocally related, and that these relationships offer more support for a “labeling” than a “deterrence” perspective.