“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化政策和行动评述

基于广泛系统的文献梳理和总结,凝练了“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化政策和行动的现状、特点及成效,并提出针对性建议。主要结论包括:从外部环境看,国际形势对中国应对气候变化事业的推动作用呈现递减态势,之前“以外促内”的国内气候治理特点逐步转化为“内生动力为主”和“内外协调”;从政策制定和执行模式看,“集思广益”“上书模式”持续,“上下互动”“智库支持”的政策学习特点更加明显;从政策体系上看,已经形成相对成熟的符合中国国情的完整体系,推动气候治理能力显著提高;从政策总体特点看,呈现规划主导并引领、行政手段先行市场机制跟进、由点到面有序扩展、环境与气候协同治理、中央和地方互动博弈形成动态平衡、短期内政策成本较高等特点。“十二五”至今,中国应对气候变化政策行动效果明显,提前实现了2020年应对气候变化目标,并在污染治理、经济发展等方面产生广泛协同效应。“十三五”中期以来,中国应对气候变化组织管理机构进行了重大调整,从中央到地方气候政策和行动进入调整阶段。同时,更加强调气候政策和环境政策的协同。展望未来,中国应对气候变化政策和行动应该尽快走出调整期,充分利用新体制的优势,以碳总量控制目标为抓手,坚定推动以全国碳排放权交易为中心、多措互补的政策体系,注重适应行动以应对不断放大的气候风险,继续提高公众对应对气候变化政策的认知度、接受度和参与度,并不断加强技术研发和储备。     

后巴黎时代气候变化公约资金机制的构建

气候变化公约资金机制是串联全球开展应对气候变化行动的纽带,也是通过国际合作实现"2℃"乃至"1.5℃"温控目标的关键支撑。多年来,由于发达国家和发展中国家在是否依据历史责任划分履约义务上存在根本分歧,公约资金机制面临多渠道并行、运行规则多样化、资金使用分散、运行效率偏低、绩效评估欠缺等问题。本文对气候变化公约缔结20余年来各资金机制的产生和运行进行了系统梳理;对其存在的不足以及在全球气候融资体系中面临的挑战进行了剖析;并基于《巴黎协定》资金案文描述和履约要求,围绕气候资金从筹集到最终绩效产出全过程,就如何构建未来气候变化公约资金机制进行了统筹规划和设计。在机制建设层面,通过出资分摊机制以及公约下集中式管理平台的构建,确保气候资金的充足性、可预见性以及对公约的责任性;在运行操作层面,通过各渠道重点业务领域及国别资金分配体系的优化,推动气候资金的公平性和有效性;在资金使用层面,通过受援国气候资金统一管理实体和监督评估体系的建立,提高气候资金的国家主导性和环境效益。未来,公约资金机制仍将是全球开展应对气候变化国际合作的主要渠道,在《巴黎协定》达成、绿色气候基金正式运行、国际气候制度重新构建的背景下,利用资金机制推动发达国家履行公约义务,切实向发展中国家提供资金、技术和能力建设支持,对确保公约各要素的全面性和平衡性,推动全球应对气候变化行动开展,强化发展中国家集团统一立场都有着重要的现实意义。     

Institutional capacity for long-term climate change adaptation: evidence from land use planning in Albay,Philippines

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.     

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies

Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. It is more so for the region which are ecologically fragile. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission. This will be made feasible only when there is a better understanding of the problem between the developed and developing world about the eminent danger arising out of climate change.     

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China’s green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation’s basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.     

《巴黎协定》后的气候资金测量、报告和核证体系构建研究

气候资金测量、报告和核证产生于《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)之下,2009年以来一直是全球气候谈判的重点之一,也是未来全球共同应对气候变化和不断增进国际信任的重要环节。《巴黎协定》达成的"每两年通报"的决定,将推动气候资金测量、报告和核证得到不断的加强和完善。本文通过梳理最新的气候资金机制以及测量、报告和核证的文献资料和智库报告,分析了气候资金测量、报告和核证的内涵、目标和最新进展,以及公约框架下面临的挑战。分析指出,目前不同的气候资金统计和核算机构的资金分类标准存在差异,数据可比性有待改善;缺乏从资金上游到下游的反馈机制,影响气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的完整性;气候资金计量体系虽然正在发展和完善之中,但仍然难以提供准确的资金"支付"数据。据此,文章提出了构建综合性的国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的重点任务:建立具有统一数据基础和核算口径的气候资金测量体系,建立操作指南更为详细、形式更为标准统一的气候资金报告体系,以及"自上而下"和"自下而上"相结合的气候资金核证机制。最后,文章指出国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的构建需要发达国家和发展中国家在坚持公约资金机制的基础上共同参与和协作。作为国际上少数几个向GEF捐资的发展中国家之一,中国在参与过程中应力争体现发展中国家对气候资金性质的主张以及对测量、报告和核证机制的关键概念和范围界定的主张,影响国际气候资金机制的运营规则和技术规则。     

布什政府温室气体减排政策评析

美国作为世界政治经济大国和世界第一大温室气体排放国家，其温室气体减排政策备受关注。布什政府上台后不久宣布拒绝接受《京都议定书》，并于2002年2月提出“全球气候变化计划”。布什政府实际上在以各种借口推托美国应该承担的温室气体减排国际责任，这将对以UNFCCC为基础的全球气候合作产生消极影响，并对全球气候政策提出挑战。     

"十二五"环境规划中应对气候变化问题的思考

气候变化对我国社会、经济与环境的协调可持续发展影响日趋严重,把应对气候变化问题纳入国家环境规划必要且适时.在分析行为效益、实施成本、适应性排放和国际因素的基础上,提出我国"十二五"环境规划中应同时考虑"减缓"和"遥应"行为应对气候变化并权衡二者优先次序,采用以适应为主的"单效"方案,将自然承载力、生产系统、社会人居环境三个层次和自然生态系统、水资源、灾害与风险、低碳经济、敏感部门、城市化环境效应、海岸带等7个相关主要问题作为规划应对气候变化的熏点领域.     

Mainstreaming climate adaptation: taking stock about “what works” from empirical research worldwide

Adaptation to a changing climate is unavoidable. Mainstreaming climate adaptation objectives into existing policies, as opposed to developing dedicated adaptation policy, is widely advocated for public action. However, knowledge on what makes mainstreaming effective is scarce and fragmented. Against this background, this paper takes stock of peer-reviewed empirical analyses of climate adaptation mainstreaming, in order to assess current achievements and identify the critical factors that render mainstreaming effective. The results show that although in most cases adaptation policy outputs are identified, only in a minority of cases this translates into policy outcomes. This “implementation gap” is most strongly seen in developing countries. However, when it comes to the effectiveness of outcomes, we found no difference across countries. We conclude that more explicit definitions and unified frameworks for adaptation mainstreaming research are required to allow for future research syntheses and well-informed policy recommendations.

     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

Management of loss and damage in small island developing states: implications for a 1.5 °C or warmer world

Small island developing states (SIDS) have been identified as some of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change due to inherent environmental, economic, and demographic characteristics. As SIDS experience impacts of climate change and reach their limits to adaptation, the identification and management of loss and damage is essential. Monitoring and evaluating loss and damage, and implementing effective responses to address these impacts, becomes even more important in a 1.5 °C or warmer world, as impacts from climate change increase. As global agreements on climate change are implemented and mechanisms to manage impacts continue to be negotiated and established, the existing ability of SIDS to monitor and respond to loss and damage must be evaluated to determine gaps that must be addressed in a 1.5 °C or warmer world. This research utilizes interviews with UNFCCC climate change negotiators for SIDS and analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to assess the state of loss and damage management in SIDS. The research provides an assessment of loss and damage already being experienced in SIDS, the status of existing mechanisms to actively monitor and evaluate loss and damage, and the existence of policies and mechanisms in SIDS to address loss and damage. Three areas of concern appear to be common for SIDS: lack of data relating to loss and damage, gaps in financial assessments of loss and damage, and a lack of policies or mechanisms targeted at loss and damage. These issues appear to be most acute in relation to slow onset impacts. Cumulatively, these challenges may present difficulties in detection and attribution and in obtaining a holistic understanding of the extent and costs of loss and damage for SIDS.     

《巴黎协定》时代的气候融资:全球进展、治理挑战与中国对策

本文首先辨析了"气候资金"与"气候融资"两个基本概念,且通过对包括《巴黎协定》在内,最新的气候资金相关法律文件、信息通报、文献资料、智库报告的研究和系统梳理,指出全球气候融资发展趋势表现在全球气候融资缺口正在持续扩大;资金来源更加市场化;发展金融机构募集、管理和分配了大部分的公共资金;新型经济体用款权受到挤压,也呈现出更大的出资潜力;稳定的碳价格被认为是全球实现"零排放"长期减排目标的核心机制。与此同时,气候资金治理体系也处在关键的转型期,目前气候资金治理正在向"自下而上"的模式过渡,《公约》外平台承担了"气候风险主流化"的多重功能,但需要警惕"自下而上"的治理模式有绕过"共同但有区别责任"的风险,且绿色气候基金运作规则的导向性作用值得关注。据此,本文在最后提出了一系列治理建议。建议我国应积极影响国际气候资金机制运营规则和技术规则的制定,避免发达国家以及代表其利益的国际组织制定的标准片面地发展为国际规则;支持在全球设定渐进的、可预测的、可信的碳价格,并且肯定将气候与环境风险因素内生化的核心思想理念;与绿色气候基金开展多方位合作,推动气候公共资金治理规则转型;加强与世界银行在气候融资领域的合作;借G20平台逐步发展为气候融资政策突破和工具创新的引领者。     

Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.     

气候变化研究的中国知识贡献及其影响局限

气候变化知识的不断深化和积累是全球气候治理的基础。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)邀请全球有代表性的科学家,通过分析评估国际上正式发表的文献,提供关于全球气候变化科学进展的最新认识结论。本文基于文献计量学,通过统计中国在气候变化十大重要领域的科技成果产出量和影响力、中国政府和科学家对IPCC评估报告的参与以及中国大陆引文在IPCC第五次评估报告中的贡献,分析了中国对全球气候变化知识的贡献与局限。结果表明:近十年来,中国在气候变化大多数领域的科技成果产出量已居全球第二或第三位,但在海洋与气候变化、适应气候变化和全球气候治理领域的国际论文量明显落后;与美国和英国相比,中国气候变化科技成果的各类影响力指标明显偏低;中国对IPCC评估报告的参与度和影响力在不断提升,中国积极组织相关机构和专家参与IPCC评估工作,对全球气候治理起到了重要的科学支撑作用;但从IPCC第五次评估报告中国大陆引文的角度看,中国贡献仍整体偏弱,中国大陆引文的贡献呈领域分布不均衡,优势领域少,成果影响面窄的特点。与科学基础领域相比,中国在影响和适应、减缓和国际合作领域的科学贡献更弱,对全球视角关注不够,但中国大陆引文总体的国际科学合作活跃度较高。后巴黎时代,中国需要更加面向国家需求、气候公约和《巴黎协定》目标以及国际气候变化科技前沿,加强全球视野和原始创新,突出中国优势和特色,使气候变化的中国研究成果更多支撑全球气候治理进程的推进。     

Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

What role for local organisations in climate change adaptation? Insights from South Africa

Regional Environmental Change - With increasing funding directed towards climate change adaptation (CCA) in developing countries, there is a growing need to understand how this support is landing...     

应对气候变化关键技术创新差异的时空格局——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

技术是应对气候变化的重要手段,关键技术创新差异的扩大将不利于各国应对气候变化的协同发展。以技术产出的专利为数据源,运用大数据挖掘工具、泰尔熵指数及空间计量学的方法和理论,分析了"一带一路"沿线国家应对气候变化关键技术创新差异的时空格局演变情况。研究结果表明:(1)沿线国家应对气候变化关键技术创新差异整体上呈现下降态势,并以初期震荡向后期平稳有升过度。(2)按地理位置划分的区域技术创新差异呈现高的空间集聚效应,且强强集聚与弱弱集聚具有一定时期内的稳定性,部分地区面临陷入技术贫困陷阱风险。(3)沿线各国应对气候变化技术创新差异存在趋同俱乐部现象,个别国家随时间推移可能经历不同俱乐部过度。针对这种趋同特征及各国技术需求特点可划分为4种类别:技术转出区、技术转入区、技术扩散区和技术承接区。技术转出区多集中在东欧某些经济发达、能源依存度高的国家。为此,本文提出如下建议:(1)各国根据自身情况制定减排政策的同时,需要国际社会制定与其相适应的差异化且有侧重的援助方案。(2)技术创新强国在涉及应对气候变化技术转移知识产权等事项上应该给予技术需求国让步。同时,技术转移应考虑区域协同及地理邻近的扩散。(3)中国应发挥好南南合作援助基金的作用,加强特定区域内共性技术的帮扶力度,建立与适宜国家间关键技术联合研发与示范机制,树立大国形象。(4)中国应加快沿线战略布局,根据不同区域各国应对气候变化的现状及其技术能力制定差异化的产业和技术转移的政策,加强与沿线国家的技术合作与贸易往来,形成优势互补的产业链。     

Establishing a measurement,reporting, and verification system for climate finance in post-Paris agreement period

The measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of climate finance was originated from discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It has been one of the key issues of global climate negotiations since 2009 and will continue to be of significant importance in addressing climate change and strengthening international trust. This paper analyses the concept, the objective, and the progress of the MRV of climate finance based on reviews of the latest literature and think-tank reports regarding climate finance regime and MRV. Following the analysis, challenges faced with the MRV of climate finance are illustrated. This paper presents that the comparability of climate finance data needs to be improved due to the variety of methodologies used for disaggregating climate finance. In addition, the integrality of the MRV system of climate finance has been impaired by the lack of feedback mechanism from the recipients to the contributors in reporting system. Furthermore, although accounting system of climate finance has been developing and improving, it remains incapacity in providing accurate data on disbursed climate finance. Responding to the above challenges, this paper proposes the key tasks in establishing a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance at international level. The tasks involve developing a measurement system with consistent data basis and accounting basis, a reporting system with more detailed guidance and standardized formats, as well as a verification mechanism balancing top-down and bottom-up review processes. In the last section, this paper concludes that the establishment of an improved MRV of climate finance requires concerted cooperation and negotiations between developed and developing country Parties under the UNFCCC. As one of the few developing country donors to the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), China is suggested to clarify its propositions as a developing country in aspects such as concept, coverage, and architecture of climate finance and MRV system, and gain bargaining power in improving operating and technical rules of international climate finance regime.     

Compromises of Bali Roadmap

Abstract

The Bali Roadmap, as the breakthrough on inter-governmental negotiation of climate change mitigation, having brought United States on track, is still a result of compromises. The major compromises of the Bali Roadmap are centered around three issues of quantifying emission reduction targets, developing countries’ obligations as well as quantifying developed countries’ financial assistance in developing countries’ capacity building on climate change. It is found that the rationalities behind these compromises are the national interests. Due to the fact, achieving cohesion among all nations in climate change actions is very difficult. Therefore, the Bali Roadmap may lead to a tough way with distant hope. However, technology innovation and well-designed economic instruments would be helpful and supportive for further international negotiation and cooperation.