基于灰局势决策的安全投资状况评价

对企业现有安全投资状况进行评价是合理进行安全投资的前提和基础。为此,将灰局势决策方法应用于安全投资状况评价问题上,通过一系列灰处理过程,得到一个可以评价各参评年份安全投资状况的综合效果测度值,以此为标准对安全投资状况进行综合评价。通过实例评价及分析,清晰展现了企业以往安全投资状况,为今后科学合理地制定安全投资策略指明了方向。     

再说“人行横道”

“人行横道”是保障行人横穿道路时的安全通道。但在城市中众多“斑马线”上看到的情景却不尽如此,发生在人行横道及周边地域的交通事故不胜枚举。人行横道是专门辟给行人穿行的专用通道,机动车到此如高度警觉,发生交通事故的可能性极     

大城市无信号控制人行横道行人过街延误分析

从心理学角度,以大城市无信号控制人行横道过街行人为研究对象,对行人过街延误进行定量分析研究。以北京市两个典型无信号控制人行横道为实例进行交通调查分析,计算行人的临界穿越间隙,安全穿越间隙出现的概率,及行人穿越该处的总延误时间。计算结果表明:观测路段车流中提供的安全穿越间隙的概率比较低;行人强行穿越的重要原因是行人过街延误超出了行人等待心理极限;验证了模型的精度;找出了观测路段交通秩序混乱的原因。针对大城市无信号控制人行横道的分析结果,提出了具体的改进建议和交通改善措施,为国内大城市行人交通安全管理提供了决策依据和有益参考。     

基于集对分析的石化企业安全投资状况动态评价

石油化工企业的安全事故频发和职业危害严重,不仅造成重大经济损失,而且对社会造成了不良影响,不合理的安全投资是造成这种状况的主要原因之一,对企业现有安全投资状况进行评价是合理进行安全投资的前提和基础。本文针对石油化工企业安全投资评价中诸多不确定性因素和动态特征进行分析,运用集对分析和马尔可夫链理论,建立了基于集对分析石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价模型,为安全投资状况评价工作提供了一个新方法。以某石油化工企业为例,通过对该企业2006-2009年这四年安全投资状况进行动态评价分析,并预测出2010年该企业的安全投资状况。评价结果表明,将集对分析和马尔可夫链理论用于石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价与预测,起到了非常好的效果,能够为企业科学合理地作出正确决策提供理论依据。     

再说“人行横道”

“人行横道”是保障行人横穿道路时的安全通道。但在城市中众多“斑马线”上看到的情景却不尽如此，发生在人行横道及周边地域的交通事故不胜枚举。     

城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价

从城市生态安全的基本内涵出发,根据压力(pressure)-状态(state)-响应(response)模型,从生态系统压力、生态系统状况、生态系统响应3方面构建一个4层次的城市生态安全评价指标体系,运用灰色系统理论,构建了城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价模型,并结合实例进行计算。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明该模型能有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值既能用于描述所评价城市的生态安全状况,亦可对不同城市的生态安全状况进行比较,对更加科学合理地评价城市生态安全状况具有参考价值。     

石化企业安全投资状况评价研究

首先分析影响石化企业安全投资状况的不确定因素,在此基础上建立石化企业安全投资状况评价指标体系。运用集对分析理论的方法对某石化企业的安全投资状况进行评价。结果表明,集对分析理论适用于石化企业安全投资状况的评价,差异度i的取值可以反映出该石化企业的安全投资状况及其安全经济管理水平。影响石化企业安全投入状况的重要因素是石化企业安全设计投入、安全技术装备投入、安全科技研发投入、治理环境的投入、应急救援投入、事故导致企业停产损失投入等。     

基于主成分分析法的特种设备安全状况评价

为综合评价特种设备的安全状况,利用主成分分析法,借助SPSS统计软件,以各类特种设备事故率以及损失率为评价指标对2006~2011年的安全状况进行综合评定,得出2006~2011年的特种设备安全状况趋势,为综合评定我国特种设备安全状况提供了新的方法思路。     

基于层次分析和集对分析的铀矿山生态环境安全评价

铀矿山生态环境安全评价对于绿色矿山建设具有重要意义,为了对铀矿山生态环境安全状况进行综合评价,针对铀矿山生态环境特点,基于层次分析法和集对分析原理,建立了铀矿山生态环境安全评价模型。结合某铀矿山生态环境安全现状,开展了该铀矿山生态环境安全综合评价,计算得到综合联系度表达式并对其进行等级判断,确定了铀矿山整体生态环境安全状况等级,同时结合联系度表达式进行了分析,提出了矿山安全管理建议。结果表明:在多指标影响下具有模糊性和随机性的铀矿山生态环境安全评价问题中,该模型通过定量计算,较好的评价了铀矿山生态环境安全状况,方法简便,结果较为准确,为铀矿山生态环境安全评价提供了一个新方法。     

疯狂老鼠安全技术状况评价

对设备整体结构及其各组成部件的缺陷状况进行全面检查,根据缺陷的程度、缺陷对结构使用功能的影响程度和缺陷发展变化状况对各评价点缺陷状况作出评定;各部分安全状况等级评定采用考虑各评价点权重的评定法;计算出各部分的得分后,再依次根据各评价部分所占的权重,对设备整体安全技术状况进行综合评定,从而确定设备的安全技术状况分类,提出设备的维修改造方案或报废建议。     

Pedestrian crossing behaviors at uncontrolled multi-lane mid-block crosswalks in developing world

IntroductionThe gap acceptance theory was primarily used to study pedestrian crossing behaviors, in accordance to static gaps that are calculated in the light of the cross section of crosswalk. However, pedestrians will face a series of dynamic gaps (especially at any uncontrolled multi-lane crosswalk) when they decide to cross the street, thus, pedestrians' decisions are made based on the dynamic gaps of each lane.MethodPedestrians' crossing behaviors at uncontrolled multi-lane mid-block crosswalk were investigated in this study. The lane-based gap (LGAP) was defined and five mid-block crosswalks were selected for observation in Wuhan, China. Pedestrians' behaviors and the corresponding traffic statuses were videoed as collected data, whose statistical analysis indicates that most pedestrians choose the rolling gap crossing strategy, which is different from existing research. Moreover, a logistic regression model was established to evaluate various influencing parameters (such as gender, age, waiting time and traffic volume) on the pedestrians' crossing strategy, whose accuracy is not satisfying. Therefore, the pedestrian dynamic gap acceptance (PDGA) model was put forward to describe pedestrians' crossing behaviors at any multi-lane crosswalk based on detailed analysis of the pedestrians' decision procedure.ResultsThe corresponding results show that its accuracy may be up to 88.6% to well describe pedestrians' crossing behaviors.ConclusionsThe PDGA model is appropriate to analyze pedestrians' dynamic decision procedures at multi-lane mid-block crosswalks.Practical applicationThe findings of this study can be used for safety and performance evaluation of crosswalks at mid-block locations in developing countries like China and India.     

Prediction of drivers and pedestrians' behaviors at signalized mid-block Danish offset crosswalks using Bayesian networks

Introduction: This study presents the prediction of driver yielding compliance and pedestrian tendencies to press pushbuttons at signalized mid-block Danish offset crosswalks. Method: It applies Bayesian Networks (BNs) analysis, which is basically a graphical non-functional form model, on observational survey data collected from five signalized crosswalks in Las Vegas, Nevada. The BNs structures were learnt from the data by the application of several score functions. By considering prediction accuracy and the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, the BN learnt using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) score resulted as the best network structure, compared to the ones learnt using K2 and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The BIC score-based structure was then used for parameter learning and probabilistic inference. Results: Results show that, when considering an individual scenario, the highest predicted yielding compliance (81%) is attained when pedestrians arrive at the crosswalk while the flashes are active, whereas the lowest predicted yielding compliance (23.4%) is observed when the pedestrians cross between the yield line and advanced pedestrian crosswalk sign. On the other hand, crossing within marked stripes, approaching the crosswalk from the near side of the pushbutton pole, inactive flashing lights, and being the first to arrive at the crosswalk result in relatively high-predicted probabilities of pedestrians pressing pushbutton. Furthermore, with a combination of scenarios, the maximum achievable predicted yielding probability is 87.5%, while that of pressing the button was 96.3%. Practical applications: Traffic engineers and planners may use these findings to improve the safety of crosswalk users.     

Effects of speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings in China

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of different speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings.

Methods: In China, it is quite difficult to obtain traffic crash and conflict data for pedestrians using such crossings, mainly due to the lack of traffic data management and organizational issues. In light of this, the proposed method did not rely on such data, but considered vehicle speed, which is a leading contributing factor of pedestrian safety at mid blocks. To evaluate the speed reduction effects at different locations, the research team utilized the following methods in this study: (1) testing speed differences—on the basis of the collected data, statistical analysis is conducted to test the speed differences between upstream and crosswalk, upstream and downstream, and downstream and crosswalk; and (2) mean distribution deviation—this value is calculated by taking the difference in cumulative speed distributions for the two different samples just mentioned. In order to better understand the variation of speed reduction effects at different distances from speed-control facilities, data were collected from six types of speed-control measures with a visual range of 60 m.

Results: The results showed that speed humps, transverse rumble strips, and speed bumps were effective in reducing vehicle speeds. Among them speed humps performed the best, with reductions of 21.1% and 20.0% from upstream location (25.01 km/h) and downstream location (24.66 km/h) to pedestrian crosswalk (19.73 km/h), respectively. By contrast, the speed reduction effects were minimal for stop and yield signs, flashing yellow lights, and crossings without treatment.

Conclusions: Consequently, in order to reduce vehicle speeds and improve pedestrian safety at mid blocks, several speed-control measures such as speed humps, speed bumps, and transverse rumble strips are recommended to be deployed in the vicinity of pedestrian crosswalks.     

Evaluation of driver performance with a prototype cyber physical mid-block crossing advanced warning system

Introduction: Using connected vehicle technologies, pedestrian to vehicle (P2V) communication applications can be installed on smart devices allowing pedestrians to communicate with drivers by broadcasting discrete safety messages, received by drivers in-vehicle, as an alternative to expensive fixed-location physical safety infrastructure. Method: This study consists of designing, developing, and deploying an entirely cyber-physical P2V communication system within the cellular vehicle to everything (C-V2X) environment at a mid-block crosswalk to analyze drivers’ reactions to in-vehicle advanced warning messages, the impacts of the advanced warning messages on driver awareness, and drivers’ acceptance of this technology. Results: In testing human subjects with, and without, advanced warning messages upon approaching a mid-block crosswalk, driver reaction, acceptance, speed, eye tracking data, and demographic data were collected. Through an odds ratio comparison, it was found that drivers were at least 2.44 times more likely to stop for the pedestrian with the warning than without during the day, and at least 1.79 times more likely during the night. Furthermore, through binary logistic regression analysis, it was found that driver age, time of the day, and the presence of the advanced warning message all had strong, significant impacts with a confidence value of at least 98% (p < 0.02) on the rate at which drivers stopped for the pedestrian. Conclusions: The results from this study indicate that the advanced warning message sent within the C-V2X had a strong, positive impact on driver behavior and understanding of pedestrian intent. Practical Applications: Pedestrian crashes and fatality rates at mid-block crossings continue to increase over the years. Connected vehicle technology utilizing smart devices can be used as a means for communications between pedestrians and drivers to deliver safety messages. State and local city planners should consider geofencing designated mid-block crossings at which this technology operates to increase pedestrian safety and driver awareness.     

广州市机动车人行横道让行行为及影响因素分析

为了探索广州市机动车驾驶员人行横道处让行行为的特征与其影响因素,采用实地调查、问卷调查和卡方检验等方法,对广州市3处典型人行横道处进行现场观测,发放并收集434份有效问卷,开展机动车让行率、行人和驾驶员对于让行行为的认知及态度、驾驶员特征因素对让行行为频率的影响等方面的统计分析。研究结果显示,广州市机动车在人行横道处减速或停车让行的比例低于15%;女性驾驶员、年龄较大的驾驶员和受教育程度高的驾驶员更倾向于在人行横道处让行。     

Behavior of children and accompanying adults at a pedestrian crosswalk

Children and accompanying adults were observed while using a pedestrian crosswalk on the way to or from kindergarten or primary school. The results of this study corroborate earlier findings that accompaniment was less than complete, that adults can set much better examples in various respects and that accompanied children often show no awareness of actively participating in the road crossing task. The solution provided by a two-dimensional scaling analysis of child and adult behavioral data illustrates that adults perform better in some respects than children, but not in all. From the results of this study, five recommendations are made concerning topics that need more emphasis in road safety programs aimed at parents.     

Pedestrian crossing behavior at midblock crosswalks

IntroductionThis study investigated the pedestrian crossing behavior at midblock crosswalks, in Istanbul. Method: Data were compiled from field studies at four selected crosswalks that were on one-way streets. Three of the crosswalks were located on three-lane streets while the other one was on a two-lane street. By using two-hour video recordings at each crosswalk, information was collected about pedestrian crossing preferences, pedestrian platoons both at curbside and during the crossing, traffic characteristics including volume, crosswalk occupancy and illegal parking, and pedestrian characteristics comprising age, gender and distraction status. These data were stratified with respect to the number of lanes and two multinomial logit models for platooning and individual crossing behavior was estimated for each stratum. Results: The results showed that the likelihood of platooning increases as the traffic volume and platoon size increase. Moreover, pedestrians who waited for little or no at the curbside and started to cross when one or more lanes were occupied generally lost time during the crossing. In terms of policy, the formation of platoons should be prevented by enforcement or demand-responsive traffic signals with push-to-walk buttons, etc. Overall, the study revealed that the presence of midblock crosswalks is questionable.     

试论冶金企业职业安全卫生评价技术和方法

介绍了安全卫生评价的目的和要求,同时介绍了职业安全卫生评价的方法。     

港口安全管理评估量化研究

对港口安全管理体系进行量化评估,不仅可推进体系的不断完善,更可促进港口企业建立健全安全生产的自我约束机制。笔者在港口安全管理体系研究的基础上,综合考虑各类港口的不同情况,运用改进的层次分析法(AHP),建立港口安全管理体系的递阶层次结构模型和构造判断矩阵;通过对沿海,内河,大、中、小港口的调查和方根法数值计算,确定评估体系中各评估要素、评估要点的权值;提出了保障港口安全生产的港口安全管理体系基本评估要点;研究完成量化的港口安全管理评估系统。该评估体系可定量评估港口安全生产状况、港口安全生产程度,及时发现港口在安全生产及安全管理方面存在的隐患、不足与缺陷等问题,从而可及时而有效地预防和控制港口系统重大事故的发生。     

旅游景区安全评价模型及实证研究

为评价旅游景区安全状况,防范事故发生、减少损失,提出针对性措施。通过对旅游景区安全系统进行分析,提出由核心、辅助和保障3个子系统构建的旅游景区安全评价模型。同时,采用层次分析法,以江西婺源县10个景区为例,进行安全综合评价。评价结果表明:婺源县10个景区均是较为安全的旅游景区,安全综合评价排序与实际状况相吻合。旅游景区安全评价方法用于旅游景区的定量安全评价,为安全管理、安全对策制定提供参考。