Inequalities in Infant Survival: An Analysis of Czech Linked Records

This research analysed individual linked infantbirth and death records for the Czech Republicfor the years from 1986 to 1992. The studyfocused on differences in the risk of infantdeath in a former socialist country whereconditions were relatively egalitarian andhealth care was free. The key variablesanalysed included birthweight, gestational age,education level and age of mother, birth order,marital status and age of infant at the time ofdeath. Despite an expectation of low levels ofinequality in infant mortality, significantdifferences were found that were related to thelevel of mothers' education. In addition,infant mortality increased with birth order ofthe child in the postneonatal period and fornormal birthweight infants (even whencontrolling for other variables). Theseanomalies, we believe, have a significantsocio-economic root and not a biologicalrelationship. The inverted pattern in infantmortality for low birthweight babies foundamong Afro-American women in the U.S was alsofound for women with low levels of educationwithin the ethnically homogeneous Czechpopulation. Similar patterns were replicated atregional levels in the Czech Republic.Surprisingly, two very contrasting regions (interms of socio-economic development andfunctions) – Prague and Ceske Budejovice –were found to have the highest risk of infantdeath, characterized primarily by increasedrisk for infants in the ``normal' or usually lowrisk categories.     

A Demographic Analysis of Registered Partnerships (legal same-sex unions): The Case of Norway

In 1993, Norway became the second country in the world to introduce registered partnerships. As with same-sex marriages, registered partnerships give the same rights and duties as marriages for opposite sex couples, with a few exceptions. The present article describes this ‘new’ demographic event based on Norwegian experiences. Compared to the number of new cases each year of opposite-sex marriages, registered partnerships amount to less than 1%. Gay partnerships are more common than lesbian partnerships, but the proportion of female partnerships has increased since the law came into force. In one out of five partnerships, one or both partners have been previously married to a person of the opposite sex. At the time they entered into the partnership, 24% of the women and 13 of the men had at least one child. When examining the registered partnerships entered into in Norway between 1993 and 2001 we estimated the probability of divorce to be 16% after six years. We also carried out a multivariate analysis of the divorce risk and found that the divorce risk for female partnerships is double that of the risk for male partnerships. Another high risk group is partnerships between a Norwegian and a person from a non-Nordic country.Noack T., Seierstad A. and Weedon-Fekjær H., 2005, A Demographic Analysis of Registered Partnerships (legal same-sex unions): The Case of Norway, European Journal of Population, 21: 89–109.Noack T., Seierstad A. and Weedon-Fekjær H., 2005, A Demographic Analysis of Registered Partnerships (legal same-sex unions): The Case of Norway, European Journal of Population, 21: 89–109.     

中国生育率转变的人口自效应研究

生育率变动的规模效应将长期存在 ;生育率变动的年龄结构效应将在正效应和负效应交替 波动中逐渐收敛 ,最终趋于消逝 ,不如规模效应存续时间那么久远。我国人口发展战略应始终兼顾规模 和结构两种效应。我国未来人口老化的加深、人口高'红利'的消失、人口高'负债'的形成 ,是以往和现在 多个时期、多个阶段、多种因素促成的。就生育率而言 ,它包括以往过高的生育率 ,也包括后来较低的生 育率。当前及未来一段时间 ,我国各地区共同的任务应该是创造条件进入稳定的适度低生育水平。     

人口结构转变、农业经济增长与农村居民消费

利用2001至2012年中国农村省级面板数据,考察了人口结构转变、农业经济增长以及它们的交互作用对农村居民消费的影响。研究结论表明：少儿抚养比下降对农村居民消费产生显著负向影响,而老人抚养系数升高对农村居民消费具有不显著的正向影响,当前农村人口结构转变将有助于提升农村居民消费;农业经济的增长将有利于提升农村居民消费水平,其对居民消费上升的贡献会随着少儿抚养比的下降而被强化,但随着老人抚养比的上升逐步被弱化。     

两德统一与“社会伙伴关系”的东扩：1990-1992

＂社会伙伴关系＂是具有德国特色的劳资关系,包含了两种制度,即企业代表会制和集体合同制。两德统一后,联邦德国的＂社会伙伴关系＂迅速扩展到东部地区。这一进程一方面反映了东部地区社会转型的历史,另一方面也显示出这种劳资关系的吸引力和生命力。     

金融业的稳健与吸引外资--对波兰、捷克、匈牙利三国的实证研究

本文对近10年来波兰、捷克和匈牙利三国金融业的稳健性与吸引国际资本的关系进行了经验和实证分析.在考察波、捷、匈三国金融体系的主要特征以及描述金融银行业内部稳健和外部稳健的两组指标的基础上,本文分析了这些国家金融转型不同阶段吸引外资的情况,定义了一组描述不同形式外资的变量指标,进而运用面板数据基准模型(benchmark model)对波、捷、匈三国金融体系稳健对吸引外资的作用和影响进行实证检验,并提出了相关的政策建议和措施.     

中国人口红利和人口负债的特色与应对策略

人口红利与人口负债是人口转变过程中人口年龄结构对经济发展造成的正面与负面效应,通过与其他国家人口红利与人口负债进行比较,进一步认识中国人口红利与人口负债的特色,并提出了开发人口红利与应对人口负债的策略,应在调整产业结构、建立人力资源市场体系、加强培训、调整教育结构、完善社会保障制度和劳动退休制度等方面做好工作。     

"后人口转变时期"我国的计划生育政策取向

20世纪末 ,我国人口发展进入了以“低出生率、低死亡率和低增长率”为特征的“后人口转变时期”。在对“后人口转变时期”人口发展特征进行论述的基础上 ,分析了我国计划生育工作面临的挑战 ,并对该时期我国计划生育政策提出了建议     

Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends,Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition

Recent decades have witnessed declining marriage rates and increasing cohabitation in Russia. Are these trends short-term responses to the economic and political crises accompanying the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991 or do they represent a longer-term shift driven by ideational changes like those shaping the “second demographic transition” in many developed countries since the 1960s? Our analyses of individual-level rates of entry to first marriage and cohabitation using 3,510 marital histories spanning 1985–2000 from the Survey of Stratification and Migration Dynamics in Russia show that the precise timing of these trends, the patterns of association between marriage and cohabitation rates and individual and contextual covariates, and the relationship between cohabitation and marriage entry mostly confirm the “transition” perspective. However, although Russia’s retreat from marriage, an especially radical departure from historically predominant patterns, involves ideational changes, the mechanisms driving these changes in Russia differ from those identified in accounts of the second demographic transition in other countries.     

Elderly Living Arrangements in Bulgaria, The Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, and Romania

Using unique 1990-round census microdata, thepaper describes the household arrangements ofelderly people in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,Estonia, Finland and Romania. We overview suchtopics as institutionalization, ``headship'rates, ``relationship to reference person,'general household composition, and solitaryliving. Few elders in any country lived withrelatives other than children or spouses. However, elder living arrangements in Finlandexhibit a more ``Northern European' pattern,those in Bulgaria and Romania a ``SoutheasternEuropean' pattern and those in the CzechRepublic a somewhat intermediate pattern. Thesituation in Estonia seemed again distinct.     

我国人口转变地区差异及其与社会经济发展的相关分析

我国的人口转变已经完成 ,但是地区差异颇大。通过对各省份 1949— 1999年人口自然变动系列资料的聚类分析 ,可以把我国的人口转变类型划分为都市、东部、中部、西部和西藏 5种模式 ,各地区人口转变过程及其特点与其社会经济发展水平高度相关     

The Demographic Consequences of Conflict, Exile and Repatriation: A Case Study of Malian Tuareg

A framework outlining the potential impacts of conflict on demographic behaviour is used to analyse the post-conflict demography of Malian Tuareg after substantial conflict-induced social, political and economic changes. A remarkable stability in both fertility and marriage leads to the conclusion that an important demographic consequence of persecution and conflict may be an entrenchment of demographic behaviour which reinforces the population’s demographic identity particularly with respect to reproduction. The importance of unique historical, political and cultural experiences of a population in responding to conflict precludes the development of a ‘demography of conflict’, suggesting we should be pursuing the ‘demography of conflicts’.     

20世纪90年代以来斯洛伐克的欧洲化与政治转型

斯洛伐克自20世纪90年代以来经历的政治转型,是一个意义深远的欧洲化过程。欧盟通过激励和规范两方面作用促进了斯洛伐克国内的政治转型。欧盟发挥影响力的方式及强弱与该国内部政治力量对比密切相关:梅恰尔政府期间,斯洛伐克因"制度不稳定"被排除在入盟谈判之外;1998年大选后祖林达政府时期,斯洛伐克在从入盟的"慢车道"驶向"快车道"的过程中,实现了修改宪法、完善政党制度、保护少数民族和法治等一系列基本问题的重大改进。     

Evidence of fertility regulation among rural french villagers, 1749–1789

In this first part an econometric model describing the sequences of live births to individual couples is developed and estimated, using data for a sample of married women in rural French communes during the period 1749–1789. The main methodological objective is to devise a means of controlling for unobserved heterogeneities that result in the endogeneity of variables describing a couple's accumulated demographic experience. Without such controls it is not possible to secure unbiased estimates of responses to familial demographic events, such as the births and deaths of children. Such estimates are sought here as indirect indicators of the existence and nature of deliberate fertility control.Un modèle économétrique, décrivant la suite des naissances vivantes d'un couple donné, est développé et estimé dans cette première partie, en utilisant des données sur un échantillon de femmes mariées dans des communes rurales françaises durant la période 1749–1789. Le principal objectif méthodologique est de fournir un moyen de contrôler l'hétérogénéité non observée qui résulte de variables endogènes décrivant l'expérience cumulative d'un couple. Sans un tel contrôle il n'est pas possible d'obtenir des estimations sans biais de l'effet d'événements démographiques, tels que les naissances et les décès d'enfants. De tels estimateurs sont recherchés ici en vue de fournir des indications indirectes sur l'exercice et la nature d'une prévention des naissances délibérée.

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The second part of this article will be published in theEuropean Journal of Population, Vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 173–206.     

转轨国家的汇率制度改革及对中国的启示

汇率作为开放经济下的关键经济变量,在发展中国家及经济转轨国家的经济体制改革中起着非常重要的作用。具有特色的6个中、东欧转轨国家(波兰、捷克、匈牙利、保加利亚、罗马尼亚和俄罗斯),汇率制度变迁表明,影响汇率制度选择的主要经济因素为经济稳定程度、经济规模、经济发展水平和经济开放度。这些影响转轨国家汇率变迁的经济因素,对于确立中国汇率制度的改革方向,即实行真正意义上的管理浮动汇率制也具有影响。     

Cambodia: Reconstructing the Demographic Stab of the Past and Forecasting the Demographic Scar of the Future

Cambodia went through 5 years of violent internal conflicts (1970–1975), including the spread of the American–Vietnamese war into the country, followed by four more years of brutal and chaotic Khmer Rouge government (1975–1979). The result was almost 2 million deaths. This article attempts to contribute to the reconstruction of the demographic history of Cambodia. This is done in three ways. First, by analysing scars in the pyramids corresponding to the recent past, present and future; second, by estimating major demographic events during the 1970s, especially excess deaths; and third, by comparing the size and composition of a simulated normal population with the real population.     

延边地区人口的变迁与城镇基本医疗保险

近年来,延边地区城镇基本医疗保险事业发展较快,并取得了较好的成绩。然而作为中国朝鲜族惟一的聚居地,区域社会人口变迁对城镇基本医疗保险事业带来了一定影响与隐患。随着区域社会经济卫生、生活环境不断改善和发展,人均寿命的逐渐延长,更好地实现医疗保障形式覆盖所有居民将有助于区域社会和谐发展。     

Platon: Précurseur de la pensée démographique?

Since Malthus, several commentators have noted quantitative considerations in Plato's work, regarding him as a forerunner of demographic thinking. But how to explain several demographic contradictions between the Laws and The Republic? This paper brings out the consistency of Plato's thought, which cannot be demonstrated at a purely demographic level. His fascination for mathematics and the influence of the Pythagorician school should first be taken into account. However, the City, as an ideal concept and as a concrete social organization is the key to Plato's thought. Confronted with a basic problem of political philosophy, that of power and justice, Plato proposed to restore the harmony between the City as a political body and the individual citizens. Hence policy measures which we regard unduly as eugenic and demographic, are in fact based on a conception of man quite different from ours.     

Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation

Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990.