中国电力系统低碳转型的路径探析——基于社会技术转型思路

社会技术转型的多层视角(MLP)是转型理论的最新进展,它认为转型是由三个层面——微观层的技术利基,中观层的社会技术体制和宏观层的大环境——相互作用引起的一个非线性的演化过程。该思路通过分析技术和社会因素之间的互动关系,寻求理解社会技术体制的长期变化。本文以MLP为分析思路,研究我国电力系统现行体制已经发生的动态变化;并从短期,中期和长期三个时间维度,对我国低碳电力系统转型路径提出一个概念性的分析框架。短期的转变路径,延续和发展现有体制结构和治理模式,通过体制内行为主体有意识地调整创新活动和发展的方向,来解决体制内部矛盾和压力,实现政府2020年的减排目标和可再生能源目标。中期的重构路径,基本实现电源结构实质性改变,火力发电比例逐步下降,可再生能源发电对其主导地位形成冲击和挑战,电力系统呈现百花齐放百家争鸣之势态。长期的重置路径通过新的低碳能源技术创新的质的突破和飞跃,实现高煤高碳的电力体系由新的低碳体制取代这一长期目标。本文从理论和方法上丰富了目前我国低碳转型的讨论,对政策制定者和相关的行为主体也可提供一种有益的参考。     

A multi-objective design optimisation of eco-friendly aircraft: the impact of noise fees on airplanes sustainable development

The current work deals with multi-objective optimisations including financial merit factors in the multi-disciplinary conceptual design of a commercial aircraft with a specific focus on noise social cost. The results of optimisations using financial and performance-oriented objective functions have been analysed and combined in a multi-objective optimisation problem using a three-dimensional objective vector. The main novelty of the present work is the analysis of social cost noise fees effectiveness integrated in financial models embracing a wider group of stakeholders’ interests. The foundations of this research lie on the air traffic increase envisaged in the next decades and the contextual growth of the urban areas nearby airport facilities. This scenario requires the aeronautical industry to handle the environment challenge taking into account all the social and economic effects. Indeed, the consolidated technology has approached a saturation point, therefore breakthrough concepts and configurations are mandatory. This matter is addressed as a highly multi-disciplinary problem within conceptual design framework. The financial model proposed is shown to highlight the need of appropriate noise fees as instruments to push all stakeholders towards a technology radical renewal and encourage the aeronautical industry towards a shared strategy in the development of an eco-friendly commercial aviation system.     

环境资源配置低效率及自然资本"富聚"现象剖析

根据技术效率、经济效率、自然效率、社会效率之间的关系，探讨了四个效率背离所导致的资源配置效率丧失以及由此引发的社会福利损失问题。在分析价格信号在资源配置过程中的作用的基础上，探讨了市场失效和价格背离现象。进一步指出了中国经济转型时期存在着自然资本富聚现象，并进一步分析其根源。包括：政府有效干预不足、现行经济增长方式和经济效率实现以对自然资本的低成本占用、机会导向型的资源配置方式、资本的价值取向、对经济财富以及单一行为人的效率追逐、产权缺位等。强调需要强化环境管理的公共管理属性，并对环境资源的权益主体的权利、责任和利益进行有效的界定和实施，通过制度和政策变革，干预和规范市场运作，促进资源的高效和公平配置。     

可持续发展的给水工业系统分析

本文建立了给水工业的系统框架 ,分析了给水工业的宏观和中观系统结构及其内在关系 ,讨论了不同层次的系统对给水工业可持续发展的影响 ,为制定我国水工业发展的政策和管理体系提供了理论基础     

Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis

The European Union (EU) transition to a smarter and more sustainable electricity sector is driven by climate change adaptation and technological developments. For the electricity distribution industry, this has contributed to a growing need to understand how these network monopolies should adapt their role, activities, and responsibilities for a redesigned electricity market, given the growth of distributed generation, and the increased control and monitoring capabilities. Considering this, a foresight study on business model innovation, technological adaptation, and market design policy alternatives is presented. A Policy Delphi method was applied, involving two iterative survey rounds and 207 European experts, which assessed 57 policy alternatives. The results highlight adaptation challenges for implementing new technologies and business practices. Experts support innovation and transition to new roles, and innovative services, while warranting that core electricity distribution activities are secured. This shift in roles is expected to be achieved through research and development (R&D) support policies, innovation friendly regulatory frameworks, and concerted actions at the EU and Member States level. The results provide policy-adaptation guidelines for electricity distribution industry stakeholders.     

中国乡村发展面临的挑战与长期性管理策略

分析研究了当前我国乡村发展所面临的严峻的挑战性问题，如乡村非农化进程停滞，城乡差异扩大带来的问题等；尤其是乡村生态破坏和环境污染危及到农业生产环境的安全和城乡居民的生存基础的情况，指出21世纪中国乡村发展相当迫切而艰巨；在可持续发展思想的框架下，提出了长期性管理策略，即类型管理、目标管理、乡村制度性投入的管理模式，并考虑了实现乡村可持续发展的制度创新与保障问题；随后针对乡村发展管理，构想了实施对策：即，1）积极推进城市化，缩减乡村人口总量；2）开展农业行业标准的制定和修订工作；3）推进乡村产业的科技创新步伐；4）强化生态环境观念，实行空间开发管制、尤其是生态脆弱地区。此外还需强调环境教育机制和广泛的公众参与机制。     

中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁与政策工具选择

伴随着新能源汽车产业的发展,中国政府有关新能源汽车产业政策也在不断地跟进。梳理相关产业政策变迁之中的内在逻辑,分析政策工具的选择是一项极为重要的任务。本文基于政策框架理论及其分析方法,对有关新能源汽车研究文献进行了分析,将关注重点从政策的评价转到从历史的角度关注新能源政策变迁的推动力上。政策变迁是与其动力因素密切相关的,这些动力因素又总是体现为政策变迁的主导力量。在中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁历程中,其主导力量或政策制定的主要影响因素不断变化,中国新能源汽车的发展政策也可以分为政府主导、汽车厂商主导和消费者主导的三个阶段。政策变迁体现了政策本身的社会价值。基于中国新能源汽车发展的各种不同政策要素及其相关性,本文发现,在中国新能源汽车产业的组织性政策工具、管制性政策工具、经济诱因性政策工具、信息性政策工具和资源性政策工具这五个方面,经济诱因性工具和信息性工具应该是推动新能源汽车产业的关键工具,组织性和管制性工具只适用于产业化初期,后期应逐渐减少,而自愿性工具在新能源汽车产业市场完善前不提倡使用,在该产业市场得到完善后可以成为政府的选择之一。经过研究发现,在新能源汽车产业发展过程中,政府应注意自身的作用范围,适当处理市场与政府规制的便捷,降低交易成本,提高规制效率,是未来产业化政策工具选择应重点关注的环节。同时,政府必须在政策上致力于技术创新,把通过技术创新推动新能源汽车产业发展作为重要的政策目标。     

可持续转型与延伸生产者责任制度

本文采用多层次转型理论的分析框架,回顾了国内外延伸生产者责任(EPR)制度的理论和实践进展,对比了EPR制度倡导者最初提出的创新导向的制度设计,与当前各国实践中基于成本—效益平衡所开展的政策评估研究,指出两者在是否应该将激进的可持续转型作为EPR基本政策目标上观点不同,其原因在于政策的技术创新激励效果难以通过可测量的政策评估方法进行有效考察,由此造成两者在EPR政策调整方向上的分歧:前者坚持EPR制度设计应该进一步完善个体责任原则,以激励生产者创新和采纳绿色技术,推进生产消费模式的系统转型;而后者则强调在现有管制框架下简化制度设计,重点完善循环处理基础设施及其管理效率。这种分歧不仅影响到发达国家EPR制度的演化,也深刻影响了发展中国家EPR制度的移植和建构。结论以中国电子废物管理实践为例,提出构建包含三个层次的演化经济学分析框架,考察EPR制度建构过程中,微观层次的企业技术选择,中观层次的供应链治理结构变动,和宏观层次的再生资源产业转型,以系统考察制度发展对技术创新的激励效果。     

有色金属资源城市经济转型发展的思考

文章通过对有色金属产业特点的分析，及对当前资源型城市经济转型的回顾，认为有色金属资源型实现主导产业由依赖矿产资源的采掘和治炼业向后续加工产业的转变，是有色金属资源型城市转型的战略选择，发展有色金属新材料与深加工产业是逐步摆脱资源有限性对经济发展制约的有效途径，文章还阐述了发展有色金属新材料与深加工产业应处理几个问题：①要争取国家政策的支持；②要一手抓有色金属新材料，一手抓有色金属产品的深加工；③要统筹兼顾有色金属新材料与深加工产业和其它接统产业的发展；④要不断强化产品质量意识和品牌效应；⑤要处理好“人”的问题。     

Analysis of building environment assessment frameworks and their implications for sustainability indicators

Green construction is gaining increasing attention in the global context. However, the construction of sustainable green buildings and environments involves different tools and systems and diverse perspectives. Therefore, the development of environmental assessment tools is an important task for managing green housing and green building projects. In this paper, we discuss the benefits, limitations, and future directions of the assessment framework. There are four characteristics of building environmental assessment, i.e., comprehensiveness, design guideline, signaling, and communication tools, which afford both benefits and limitations. We illustrate the role of the assessment framework as a hub promoting integration of diverse knowledge, as a design guideline encouraging better design and action, as signaling environmentally friendly design and action, and as a communication tool. On the other hand, there are limitations, such as the use of a mixture of quantitative and qualitative measures, ambiguity of weighing, lack of financial evaluation, and lack of involvement of diverse disciplines and stakeholders. To develop an effective assessment framework, the following three factors must be considered: knowledge, power, and implementation. We propose that knowledge innovation, a credible approach for a salient solution, and collective action represent the future challenges of the assessment framework.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

资源型城市环境规制的经济增长效应及其传导机制——基于创新补偿与产业结构升级的双重视角

对于中国多数资源型城市来说,改善生态环境与促进经济增长是当前面临的重要任务。一些研究认为治理环境污染可能加重"遵循成本",进而不利于经济增长;也有研究认为环境规制会通过"创新补偿"效应,增进当地产品竞争力,弥补企业成本负担并促进经济增长;此外,还有研究认为环境标准提高有助于区域产业结构升级,进而带动经济增长。为验证中国资源型城市环境规制对经济增长的影响及其传导机制,本文基于2004—2014年资源型城市数据,以样本城市GDP为被解释变量,以工业污染治理设备运行费用为解释变量,进行了面板数据实证分析,并观察了科技行业人员比重和第三产业比重的中介效应。结果显示:(1)资源型城市工业污染物治理对GDP总量和人均GDP的影响均显著为正;(2)在环境规制与GDP(或人均GDP)的正向关系中,科技行业人员比重的提升起到了部分中介作用,即存在显著的创新补偿效应;(3)除了传统观点看到的创新补偿效应,污染治理对产业结构的积极影响也在二者正向关系中有重要的中介作用,而且比创新补偿效应的作用更显著。本文的结论是,资源型城市环境规制未对经济增长造成不利影响,主要是由于经济资源从效益不佳的工业企业流向了第三产业,同时工业部门自身的创新潜力也已逐步凸显。因此,面对经济社会持续发展的压力,资源型城市要取得经济增长与生态环境的双赢,应当强化污染治理成本对企业技术进步的倒逼机制,进一步实现创新驱动发展,同时要构建多元产业体系,促进资源型行业与现代服务业的有效对接和深度融合。     

European electricity utilities managing energy transition challenges

Energy transitions are a complex technological-economic and social process. Currently, this involves the impact that innovation in technology and information as well as social practices can have on the way the energy is used. Therefore, business becomes much more complex and risky. In the particular case of the European Union, recent years were also marked by multiple changes at the political, economic, social and environmental context. Changes are already in course posing new challenges to European Electricity Utilities. The question that arises is how these subjects impact the structure, consolidation and governance of the electricity utilities and which drivers have the greatest impact on the speeding up the change. It is also our aim to understand how companies are responding to transition challenges in order to ensure the sustainability of their activities and their healthy stay in the market. In this article we present an insight of this issue through the analysis of thirteen indicators on the seven largest European energy utilities. Results allowed comprising the effects of the different economic and financial contexts on the variables under study.     

Structure of industrial or corporate sustainability programmes

The 15 years up until 2008 have seen an escalating growth in corporate or industrial sustainability programmes to a current level of about 25% of the Fortune 1000 firms. This preliminary study of corporate sustainability programmes yielded a repeatable structure of these programmes that may be unique to industry in the broader sustainability field. These corporate sustainability programmes are different from the prior corporate social responsibility programmes and also are a subset of the vast current use of the word sustainable. The corporate sustainability model is built on four pillars (business excellence, innovation, human contribution and environment) that offer important directions for long-term decision making. In-depth sustainability programme studies revealed recurring principles that reflect current industry or corporate sustainability programmes.     

Threshold effects of tourism agglomeration on the green innovation efficiency of China’s tourism industry

ABSTRACT

Industrial agglomeration is an essential and effective way to integrate resources and elements. Its impact on the green innovation efficiency of the tourism industry is a process of continuous development and dynamic change. This paper, based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, uses super SBM model to measure the green innovation efficiency of China’s tourism industry. The threshold regression model is employed to conduct empirical tests of the nonlinear threshold effect of agglomeration on the green innovation efficiency of tourism industry. The inter-provincial differences of various threshold effects and their possible causes are analyzed. Results indicate that the green innovation efficiency of China’s tourism industry is generally growing, while regional disparity is significant with a gradient decrease along the eastern-central-western regions. There is an obvious positive nonlinear relationship between tourism agglomeration and green innovation efficiency. It is also found that with the increase of agglomeration, its influence is at a high level. As the level of agglomeration crosses the first threshold, its impact is at a low level, and when it crosses the second threshold, the impact of tourism agglomeration is at an intermediate level. Finally, this paper proposes the basic path and some policy recommendations to promote the green innovation efficiency of the tourism industry in China.     

Towards an integrated framework for sustainable innovation

Sustainable innovation represents a current challenge for companies, as firms need to change the way they design, develop, produce and distribute products and services. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework to be used as a reference guideline for organisations to define a roadmap, specific actions and projects to achieve sustainable innovation, integrating four key enablers. The first enabler is mass customisation (MC), which targets the identification and compliance with customers' specific needs and requirements in order to achieve customer‐driven design. At the same time, the sustainable development (SD) paradigm is taken into consideration, where for any new product or service, companies analyse the benefits, risks and impacts of not only economic factors, but also social and environmental implications. The third enabler is linked to the value network (VN), where innovations happen owing to the active collaboration and distributed knowledge of partners inside and outside the company. Finally, the fourth and last considers the complete product and service life cycle (PSLC), where the three sustainable elements are identified and analysed in each single business process. Two case studies, (footwear sector and water treatment plants) are described to show the validity and successful deployment of the proposed framework in real industrial scenarios.     

Evaluation of stakeholder participation in monitoring regional sustainable development

This paper presents a theoretical framework that can be used to discuss the question of how context, time and different participatory process designs influence the results of participatory monitoring projects in terms of concrete outputs (such as sustainability indicators) and the more intangible social outcomes (such as learning and stakeholder relations). We will discuss and compare four different cases of participatory monitoring of provincial sustainable development in the Netherlands. The results show sustainability issues selected by the stakeholders reflect the socio-economic and ecological structural characteristics of their region. In a different context, stakeholders not only assign different weights to the same set of issues, but more importantly they select a completely different set of regional aims altogether. Since these regional structural characteristics only change slowly over time, the influence of time on stakeholder preferences is shown to be only of minor importance. However, the dissipation of learning effects is shown to be a fundamental challenge for the cyclical nature of participatory monitoring, especially when its goal is shared agenda building. Another important conclusion is that, in the design of participatory processes, more attention should be devoted to providing stakeholders with the opportunity to comment on an ‘intermediate’ product.     

Shedding light on a neglected area: a new approach to knowledge creation

Awareness is needed of sustainability issues that are currently neglected but potentially important. A computer-based approach can highlight unconscious and neglected areas because it can structure vast amounts of knowledge. In this article, we propose a methodology to perceive unconscious areas of sustainability with the support of a computer-based approach, which creates a matrix, named the recognized-unrecognized matrix, which highlights both local and globally neglected problems. A case study is conducted to consider the potential contribution of the aviation industry to sustainability issues. We demonstrate that a citation network analysis is an effective methodology to chart the recognized-unrecognized matrix. We highlight issues of water use in the aviation industry by designing an innovative water and air circulation system, which significantly reduces water and fuel consumption on board airplane flights. We also suggest a new approach to integrating both explicit and tacit knowledge to enable knowledge creation.     

国内外绿色发展制度演化的历史脉络及启示

面对全球性的生态问题和经济下行压力，世界各国先后推出了“绿色新政”，旨在通过制度创新来保障绿色增长方式的可根植化问题，以此探索可持续包容发展。国外绿色发展制度建设过程经历了发展理念的两次跃升，即从“可持续发展”到“绿色新政”，因而可概括为：“萌芽”、“发展”和“突破”3个阶段，总体来说是环境问题驱动、价值观引领的螺旋式上升过程，政府和市场的重要性交替显现；与发达国家相比，国内绿色发展制度经历了“自发”、“追赶”、“并跑”到“创新”的4个阶段，带有自上而下的中央集权特征，战略规划起了导向作用。无论是国外还是国内，绿色发展制度的形成实质上都是社会公众绿色意识的不断加强在社会制度上的反映。在梳理国内外绿色发展制度演变的逻辑规律的基础上，提出塑造绿色文化以培育绿色发展制度价值观，以战略规划和市场配置来构建体制观，协调统一绿色法律制度、创设中国特色标准体系以维护法制观，采用样板试点巩固绿色发展制度示范观等若干启示     

全球绿色低碳发展与公平的国际制度建设

在可持续发展和扶贫框架下发展绿色经济与国际可持续发展制度建设及改革是当前世界可持续发展的核心和关键,也是"里约+20"峰会的两个主题。首先,绿色经济是体现经济社会与资源环境相协调和可持续发展的根本途径。绿色经济的核心是以低的自然资源消费、低排放、低污染,达到高的自然资源利用效益,实现高的经济社会发展水平,提供高的生活水平和优良的生活环境。全球绿色经济的发展潮流,将引发社会形态由"工业文明"向"生态文明"转变。虽然经济发展和消除贫困是发展中国家当前首要和压倒一切的优先任务,但也必须探索新型的绿色低碳工业化和现代化道路,在实现工业文明的过程中,努力建设生态文明,实现跨越式发展。同时积极应对全球绿色低碳转型中新的经济、贸易、技术竞争规则和格局的变动,加强先进技术创新,提升自身的低碳竞争力。其次,公平获取可持续发展的理念,应成为国际可持续发展制度建设和改革的基本原则。可持续发展要求既要促进经济社会发展与资源环境相协调,促进"代际公平",又要关注欠发达地区消除贫困,提高生活质量,改善生态环境,实现"国别公平"、"人际公平"。因此,国际可持续发展制度框架的建设和改革,要体现世界各国公平获取可持续发展的理念和原则,全面均衡地反映不同国情和发展阶段国家的利益诉求。主要表现在公平享有全球环境空间、公平获得现代优质能源服务、公平适应全球环境变化、公平承担责任义务及公平的国际制度和机制。中国需要统筹国内外两个大局,走中国特色的绿色低碳发展之路。最后,中国的国情和发展阶段特征,在可持续发展领域又面临比发达国家更多的困难和更严峻的挑战。在全球发展绿色经济,努力实现可持续发展的大背景下,中国要统筹国际国内两个大局,协调推进。在国际上积极参与国际制度的建设和改革,在促进全球经济发展,社会进步和环境保护等方面发挥积极的建设性的作用。在国内加强可持续发展战略的实施,走绿色、低碳和可持续发展的路径。主要战略对策包括加速转变发展方式,强化节能优先,控制能源消费总量和CO2排放总量的过快增长;加强能源结构的低碳化,逐步建立并形成以新能源和可再生能源为主体的可持续能源体系;加强城乡统筹,地区平衡,促进生态城市建设;适应国际可持续发展制度改革的趋势,加强绿色低碳和可持续发展的制度建设;抓住机遇,顺应世界绿色低碳发展潮流,自主实现发展方式的转变,把传统的资源依赖型、粗放扩张的发展方式转变到新型的技术创新型、内涵提高的发展方式上来,基本走上绿色低碳和可持续发展的轨道。