Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.     

Regimes of human and climate impacts on coastal changes in Vietnam

Vietnam is a tropical to subtropical country located on the eastern Asian coast where the Red (Song Hong) and Mekong rivers discharge into the sea. The catchments of these two transboundary rivers cover parts of six countries, and their water and sediment discharges greatly influence the coastal seas of Vietnam. The impact of human activities include changes in the supply and distribution of water, sediments, and nutrients; changes in the relationships and balance among dynamically interacting factors and processes; and changes in the quality of the coastal and marine environments due to the increased use and accumulation of pollutants and the loss of habitats. These impacts have resulted in increasing unpredictability and severity of coastal problems such as floods, erosion, sedimentation, and saltwater intrusion; environmental pollution; and the degradation of ecosystems, with accompanying decrease in biodiversity and fishery productivity.     

Assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources and use,food security,and economic welfare in Iran

Climate change influences the agricultural sector by reducing available water resources, thereby influencing income, consumer and producer surplus, and crop prices. So, it is necessary to have a comprehensive integrated method to measure the effects of these changes on natural resources and social conditions. The present study aims to use the positive mathematical programming method to discover the trend and conditions of groundwater resources, agricultural water use, food security, and economic welfare of the agricultural sector in Iran. To this end, data for the period 2000–2015 was used under four different scenarios of normal climate change, climate change, climate variability, and concurrent climate change The results showed that the mean agricultural water use will amount to 35,103.6, 26,533.8, 35,216, and 26,510.7 million m³ and the mean decline in the reserves of aquifers will amount to 4422.22, 11,165.6, 4438.25, and 11,267.4 million m³ under the scenarios, respectively. With respect to food security, the net farm revenue will be 314,560, 248,753, 315,427, and 248,574 billion IRR, respectively. The mean crop price per ton will reach 905.3, 1141.8, 904, and 1142.8 million IRR, respectively. The mean consumer surplus will be 172,107.7, 166,450, 172,024, and 166,403 billion IRR and the mean producer surplus will be 419,959.2, 395,380, 419,751, and 395,204 billion IRR, respectively. Based on the results, to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on different studied aspects, it is necessary to change policymaking in the water and agricultural sectors, especially regarding the shift from traditional agricultural water allocation to its market-based allocation and to change planting pattern.

     

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO₂ in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.     

Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change

Climate change poses serious challenges for populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to adversely affect the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative. Few studies have addressed the farmers’ adaptation in Iran, and little is known about ongoing adaptation strategies in use. Adopting principal component analysis/fuzzy logic-based method, this paper considers the agricultural adaptation to climate variability. A survey of 255 farmers of Fars Province, selected through a multistage stratified random sampling method, revealed different levels of adaptation, specifically the low, moderate and high, which are principally distinguished by various degrees of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study also identified the main adaptation strategies used by farmers in response to climate-related shocks. Results indicated that although a large percentage of farmers make some adjustments to their farming practices, there are significant differences in choice of adaptation strategies by the adaptation categories. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate variability and change.     

Rural organizations and adaptation to climate change and variability in rural Kenya

Numerous studies have shown that collective action affects the type and efficiency of short- and long-term adaptation to climate change. This empirical study contributes to the body of the literature on collective action and adaptive capacity by demonstrating how organizations frame responses to climate variability and change in rural Kenya by promoting local rural institutions. By analyzing interviews, role-playing games, and household surveys, we ask how local rural organizations shape coping strategies to climate variability and how they may structure future adaptations to climate change. We also investigate what types of households participate in those organizations and how their participation may impact their vulnerability to climate change and variability. Our analysis shows that in places rendered especially vulnerable to climate change by arid climatic conditions, the disengagement of governmental services, and a limited access to income-generating activities, local rural organizations increase livelihood security. Those organizations reduce local vulnerabilities and enhance collective action. In contrast to common diversification and livelihood security strategies which rely on the access to urban or peri-urban structures, local rural institutions and organizations allow for rural and grassroots sustainable adaptation strategies. In that respect, they constitute a resilient and mostly untapped resource for visibly strengthening livelihood security and adaptive capacities in rural Kenya.     

Impacts of climate and land use change on hydrodynamics and sediment transport regime of the Ganga River Basin

Regional Environmental Change - The Amazon rainforest covers roughly 40% of Colombia’s territory and has important global ecological functions. For more than 50 years, an internal war in the...     

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

Greece is included among the most vulnerable regions of Europe by climate change on account of higher temperature and reduced rainfall in areas already facing water scarcity. With respect to wetland systems, many ephemeral ones are expected to disappear and several permanent to shrink due to climate change. As regards two specific wetlands of Greece, the change in hydroperiod of Cheimaditida and Kerkini lakes due to climate change was studied. Lakes’ water balance was simulated using historical climate data and the emission scenarios Α1Β for the period 2020–2050 and Α1Β and Α2 for the period 2070–2100. Future climate scenarios, based on emission scenarios A1B and A2, were provided in the context of the study of Climate Change Impacts Study Committee. The surface area of Lake Cheimaditida will undergo a substantial decrease, initially by 20 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 37 % during the period 2070–2100. In Lake Kerkini, the surface area will decrease, initially by 5 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 14 % during the period 2070–2100. Climate change is anticipated to impact the hydroperiod of the two wetlands, and the sustainable water management is essential to prevent the wetland’s biodiversity loss.     

Livelihood vulnerability to climate change: a case of farm households in Northeast Vietnam

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study investigates the livelihood vulnerability to climate change of farm households in Northeast Vietnam. Data for the study is based on a survey...     

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland

A simple model of yield was used along with climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on grain maize productivity and associated economic risk in Switzerland. In a first application, changes in the precipitation regime alone were shown to affect the distribution of yield considerably, with shifts not only in the mean but also in the standard deviation and the skewness. Production risk was found to respond more markedly to changes in the long-term mean than in the inter-annual variability of seasonal precipitation amounts. In a further application, yield projections were generated with respect to a full climate scenario, with the emission pathway as specified in the IPCC A2 scenario. Anticipation of the sowing date was found to reduce the negative impact of climate change on yield stability, but was not sufficient to ensure average productivity levels comparable to those observed at present. We argued that this was caused by the reduction in the duration of the growing season, which had a stronger impact than suggested by previous studies. Assuming no change in price relations, the results also revealed a strong increase in production risk with climate change, with more than a doubling in the probability of yield falling short of a critical threshold as compared to today’s situation.     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

The perception of and adaptation to climate variability/change in Ghana by small-scale and commercial farmers

Effective adaptation to climate change and variability is contingent on the perceptions of farmers and the ability of policy makers to merge these with scientific knowledge systems. The study examined the differentiated knowledge, experiences and perceptions of small traditional farmers and modern commercial farmers and their adaptation influences using qualitative interviews. Farmers generally have very clear ideas of the trends in the parameters of climate change as they relate to farm productivity and other livelihoods. Commercial farmers had a better understanding of the science of climate change, but small farmers presented a localised explanation of observed climate changes. Non-climate factors influenced adaptation of both groups of farmers. The capacities of small farmers are lower than their commercial counterparts, but the risks associated with commercial farming are much higher owing to higher investments in uncertain physical and economic conditions. Differentiated policies are needed at climate proofing the investments and efforts of farmers.     

Eco-balance analysis of land use combinations to minimize environmental impacts and maximize farm income in northern Japan

Relationships among global warming potential (GWP), farmland surplus nitrogen (FSN) and income for major land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed were compared using the eco-balance method. An empirical model was created for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide for both uplands and paddy rice using monitoring data from 22 fields. The greenhouse gas emissions were converted into GWP, whereas yield and FSN were obtained from interviews with farmers and a literature survey. Land use distribution was obtained by ground surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2007. The analysis showed that paddy rice and soybeans were characterized by a high GWP, low FSN and high income, whereas onions and vegetables had a high FSN but low GWP and moderate income. Wheat showed a negative GWP in some years, and abandoned areas always exhibited negative values. The total GWPs for the region were 14,184, 11,085 and 8,337 Mg CO₂ year⁻¹ for 2002, 2005 and 2007, respectively. The contribution of paddy rice to GWP was highest, ranging from 40 to 75%. To find optimal land use combinations that provide higher incomes and lower GWPs and FSNs than at present, all possible land use combinations were analyzed by changing the land use proportion from 0 to 100% at an interval of 10%. The number of land use combinations meeting the requirements in the three investigated years was 205. Abandoned area, which had the smallest environmental load, was included in every land use combination, indicating that land uses with low environmental impacts should be maintained at a certain proportion to mitigate the environmental load accompanying land uses with high production.     

Social capital and citizen perceptions of coastal management for tackling climate change impacts in Greece

There is a growing consensus among researchers that social aspects and the involvement of local communities play a critical role in public decision-making processes in the coastal zone. Social capital is a parameter which has recently gained significant attention in this context. It is regarded that it has a significant influence on the adaptation capacity of local communities to climate change impacts. The present paper aims to contribute to this field through an examination of citizens’ perceptions of three coastal zone management policies (hold the line, managed realignment and no active intervention) along with the influence of social capital on the level of social acceptability for these proposed policy options. For this purpose, a quantitative empirical study was conducted for the first time in five coastal areas of Greece that are regarded as high flood-risk areas due to sea-level rise. Respondents demonstrated that they are willing to accept changes in their social and natural environments in order to confront sea-level rise and are more positive towards the managed realignment option, as long as this is accompanied by financial compensation for those whose properties will be affected. Regarding the influence of social capital, through the results of an ordinal regression, it was observed that institutional and social trust influence positively citizens’ level of agreement for the managed realignment policy. Furthermore, respondents who believe that a sense of reciprocity exists in their community are also more willing to accept active intervention policies.     

Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia.

Emerald, north-east Queensland, is at the northern margin of the wheat cropping region of Australia. The Emerald region was previously used predominantly for grazing beef cattle; however, cropping has developed in importance over the past 30 years. We use historical climate records (1890-1998) to simulate and compare wheat yields, grass production and live-weight gain (LWG) over time. The cropping expansion from the 1970s to the early 1990s has occurred in a unique period in the 108-year record with the highest average wheat yields, lowest wheat yield variability and the greatest relative productivity of wheat production against grass production. If this window of opportunity is a result of long-term climate variability, then cropping is likely to decline in the region as conditions return to those experienced earlier in the record. If this increase is related to climate change, then cropping is likely to persist in the region with productivity maintained at current levels particularly through the yield-enhancing effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, this persistence will be influenced by the frequencies of El Ni?o conditions that may increase with global warming. The high relative productivities experienced over the past few decades have probably biased producers' expectations, and applications for drought support need to take into account the longer-term perspective provided by this analysis. Nevertheless, the last 6 years have the lowest simulated mean LWG production on the record. The identification of poor production periods depended on the production element being addressed and the timescale involved.