中国纸币溯源

北宋时，商业繁荣、交易扩大，但用的是铜钱或铁钱，如买一匹绢，竟需要2万个小铁钱，重达130斤(65公斤)，不便使用，商人乃出具收据形式的纸帖，在市面上通行，这样，民间通行的交子便产生了，交子就是当地的最初的纸币。宋太宗初年(公元976年)成都十六家富商，联合成立了交子铺，由地方政府批准，发行交子。     

对不同时期纸币通货膨胀的比较及当前治理选择

通货膨胀是一种货币现象，也是一种历史现象。纸币是货币符号，本身不具有内在价值，如果纸币发行超过现实商品实际需要量，则会引起通货膨胀。我国是使用纸币最早的国家，最早的法定纸币产生于宋代北宋天圣年间的官交子，至今已有900余年历史。纸币通货膨胀现象出现时间早、次数多、危害较严重，纵观历代纸币制度以及新中国成立后的人民币流通制度，都曾经出现过通货膨胀。因此，对比分析其产生原因及治理措施，对今天治理通货仍有借鉴意义。     

宋元明清纸币发行与通货膨胀(上)

纸币是当今世界各国普遍使用的货币形式,如今商业的正常运行离不开纸币的流通,而世界上最早出现的纸币,是中国北宋时期四川成都的"交子"。本文让我们重新回到宋元明清时代,寻找存于史书中有关纸币的产生、发展,以及通货膨胀与纸币发行和国家财政之间千丝万缕的关系。     

苏区货币战

货币作为一般等价物、一种特殊商品,因人类商业活动的兴起而产生,伴随着经济社会的发展而演变.小而言之,它是自然人的财富体现;大而言之,它是政治实体的主权象征.自从殷商铸铜贝、北宋造交子,古往今来.无数政权制造发行了无数货币,或在自己的地盘内强制流通使用,借以发展经济,稳定政局;或渗透到敌方境内,蓄意破坏、摧毁其金融系统,推翻、颠覆其统治基础.     

数字货币、货币竞争与货币发行的一般性逻辑 ——关于货币发行三假说的提出与讨论

从金属货币到纸币,货币发行的宿命是从分散走向集中,然而在缺乏监管的条件下集中的货币发行将出现货币超发,也就是本文提到的"货币发行陷阱"。在提出货币发行三假说"货币发行次优假说""货币锚定不可能假说"和"货币非国家化不可能假说"的基础上,本文论证分析数字货币必将遵循历史一般规律,最终由中央银行集中货币发行权。本文认为,通过政策鼓励大型互联网机构研发数字货币值得商榷;从长远看,决定中国数字货币发展前景的根本因素是经济能否持续健康增长,而不是发展数字货币技术。     

硬币在现代化的文明进程中不可或缺

从公元前(221年)秦始皇统一货币(含属货币占据市场主导地位)，到宋仁宗天圣元年(公元前1023年)纸币“交子”问世，混合流通的硬币和纸币沿用了3000多年。其版本、样式、规格、成色、成本、含量等等要素，几经演变，无不显示出当年社会经济与化艺术、综合国力与民族财力的基本状况。值得一提的是，硬币的产生至今，经过多少风残岁月，依旧是有它特定的优势。     

中国纸币的起源、演革和发展

纸币的出现是世界货币史上的一大进步。世界上最早的纸币，是我国北宋时期在四川地区发行的“交子”。宋代商业经济发达，通货需要增加，商旅携带使用铜铁钱很不方便，客观上需要轻便的货币。据《续资治通鉴长编》记述，太宗淳化五年（公元９９４年）四川邛、嘉、眉等州“民间钱益少，私以交子为市”。该书又载道：“蜀民以铁钱重，私为券，谓之交子，以便贸易”。“交子”最初由商店自由发行，信用不易得到保证，后由１６户富民合伙主持，集资３６万缗为本钱，以一交为一缗，３年为一界，界满换发新券。后来富户产业衰落，信用动摇，无力兑…     

宋元时期有关纸币发行量的思想

我国是世界上最早发行纸币的国家。早在公元十世纪,北宋政府就在四川益州发行了早期的纸币——官交子,开创了中国古代社会近一千年行用纸币的历史。北宋天圣元年(1023年)到元朝灭亡(1368年)三百余年的历史阶段,是中国古代纸币发行最兴盛的时期。人们在长期的行钞实践中,充分认识到了正确处理纸币发行量是决定行钞成败的一个关键性问题,     

宋代四川纸币发行及其命运的启示

宋代四川发行的交子在南宋理宗宝祐四年政府停止发行为止,走完了不断增印→币值贬低→通货膨胀→停止使用这样一个全过程.目前,人民币也存在严重的主动和被动超发现象,其已经显露出的危害性主要表现在:通货膨胀资产泡沫收入分配和贫富差距、影响人民币国际化的进程、挫伤社会各阶层的劳动积极性、创造性以及伤害政府信用等.面对这些问题,我们或许能够从宋代四川交子的发行及其命运中得到一些启示.     

欧元的发行、防伪与反假——及对我国货币发行管理的启示

欧元的发行经过了严密的筹备，宣传攻势亦是大张旗鼓，欧元的防伪措施细致入微，对我国的货币发行管理有相当的借鉴意义。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…