Haul-out behavior of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in Hood Canal, Washington

The goal of this study was to model haul-out behavior of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Hood Canal region of Washington State with respect to changes in physiological, environmental, and temporal covariates. Previous research has provided a solid understanding of seal haul-out behavior. Here, we expand on that work using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with temporal autocorrelation and a large dataset. Our dataset included behavioral haul-out records from archival and VHF radio tag deployments on 25 individual seals representing 61,430 seal hours. A novel application for increased computational efficiency allowed us to examine this large dataset with a GLMM that appropriately accounts for temporal autocorellation. We found significant relationships with the covariates hour of day, day of year, minutes from high tide and year. Additionally, there was a significant effect of the interaction term hour of day : day of year. This interaction term demonstrated that seals are more likely to haul out during nighttime hours in August and September, but then switch to predominantly daylight haul-out patterns in October and November. We attribute this change in behavior to an effect of human disturbance levels. This study also examined a unique ecological event to determine the role of increased killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation on haul-out behavior. In 2003 and 2005 these harbor seals were exposed to unprecedented levels of killer whale predation and results show an overall increase in haul-out probability after exposure to killer whales. The outcome of this study will be integral to understanding any changes in population abundance as a result of increased killer whale predation.     

Spectral analysis discerns pattern and feedback in natural‐ and anthropogenic‐disturbed boreal black spruce forests

The two major disturbance types of boreal black spruce forest in north–central Quebec, Canada – natural disturbance by wildfire and anthropogenic disturbance by harvest – may affect processes of recovery differently and leave distinct post‐disturbance soil and vegetation spatial patterns. We tested whether 1) spatial patterns of physico‐chemical soil organic layer properties, black spruce diameter and density, and understory ericaceous shrub cover, differ between these two principal disturbance types; 2) operations associated with forest harvest result in distinct, regular spatial patterns of these same variables related to presence of machine trails; and 3) ericaceous shrub presence is a potential factor contributing to the legacy of spatial patterns after harvest. We explored these patterns on black spruce‐feathermoss forest stands, including fire‐origin stands (18 and 98 years) and stands originating from harvest (16 and 62 years) in central Quebec, Canada. We used two spatial analysis methods, spectral analysis and principal component analysis in the frequency domain, to characterize and relate spatial patterns of these soil and vegetation variables, measured along 50‐m transects on each site. Spatial patterns of distribution of soil and vegetation variables were different on the burned and the harvested forest sites. Wildfire gave rise to spatial patterns in soil and vegetation variables at multiple scales, reflecting the complexity generated by variable burn intensity. Patterns following forest harvest were mainly related to the regular structure defined by trails created by logging operations. In contrast to burned sites, ericaceous shrub patterns on harvested sites were strongly associated with spatial arrangements of spruce diameter and density, promoting absence of canopy closure and persistence of trails. Moreover, different spatial signatures did not converge in the long‐term (62–98 years) between the two disturbance types. The divergence in spatial structure between natural and anthropogenic disturbances has implications for ecosystem structure and function in the longer term.     

RESPONSE OF PACIFIC WALRUSES TO DISTURBANCES FROM CAPTURE AND HANDLING ACTIVITIES AT A HAUL-OUT IN BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA

Observations were made on herds of the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) to study their response during the capturing and handling of adult males in summer 1995 at a haul-out at Cape Peirce in southwestern Alaska. Three behaviors (alertness, displacement, and dispersal) were quantified from 16 capture sessions. Herd sizes ranged from 622 to 5,289 walruses. Handling of an immobilized walrus consisted of attempts to attach telemetry devices to the tusks and collect various biological samples. Handling activities resulted in an average of about 10-fold or greater levels of behavior in alertness, displacement, and dispersal than during precapture and darting periods. High levels of behavior usually occurred within the first 45 min of handling. In 8 of 10 capture sessions, walruses returned to predisturbance levels of behavior within 40 min of cessation of the handling disturbance. Alertness and displacement were moderately and negatively correlated with herd size during the handling period, which may reflect an effect of a threshold distance from the point of disturbance to responding individuals. Observations of walruses tagged with VHF radio transmitters indicated that the activities from a given capture session did not preclude tagged walruses from using the haul-out over a subsequent 11 -wk monitoring period. Moreover, non-tagged walruses continued to extensively use the haul-out during and after the period in which capture sessions were conducted.     

Does disturbance regime change community assembly of angiosperm plant communities in the boreal forest?

Aims To examine if and how species and phylogenetic diversity change in relation to disturbance, we conducted a review of ecological literature by testing the consistency of the relationship between phylogenetic diversity and disturbance and compared taxonomic groups, type of disturbance and ecosystem/habitat context. We provide a case study of the phylogenetic diversity–disturbance relationship in angiosperm plant communities of a boreal forest region, compared with types of natural and anthropogenic disturbances and plant growth forms.Methods Using a large-scale sampling plot network along a complete (0–100%) anthropogenic disturbance gradient in the boreal biome, we compared the changes of angiosperm plant community structure and composition across plots. We estimated natural disturbance with historical records of major fires. We then calculated phylogenetic diversity indexes and determined species richness in order to compare linear and polynomial trends along disturbance gradients. We also compared the changes of community structure for different types of anthropogenic disturbances and examined how the relationships between species and phylogenetic diversity and disturbance regimes vary among three different life forms (i.e. forbs, graminoids and woody plants).Important findings Phylogenetic diversity was inconsistently related to disturbance in previous studies, regardless of taxon, disturbance type or ecosystem context. In the understudied boreal ecosystem, angiosperm plant communities varied greatly in species richness and phylogenetic diversity along anthropogenic disturbance gradients and among different disturbance types. In general, a quadratic curve described the relationship between species richness and anthropogenic disturbance, with the highest richness at intermediate anthropogenic disturbance levels. However, phylogenetic diversity was not related to disturbance in any consistent manner and species richness was not correlated with phylogenetic diversity. Phylogenetic relatedness was also inconsistent across plant growth forms and different anthropogenic disturbance types. Unlike the inconsistent patterns observed for anthropogenic disturbance, community assembly among localities varying in time since natural disturbance exhibited a distinct signature of phylogenetic relatedness, although those trends varied among plant growth forms.     

Disturbance‐driven variation in abundance–occupancy relationships over time in tropical forest fragments

A central problem in ecology is to understand spatial–temporal variation in abundance–occupancy relationship (AOR) and to identify the biological and anthropogenic drivers behind this variation. How AOR is influenced by ecological traits and anthropogenic disturbances is poorly understood. A data set of woody plants from eleven forest fragments around Kampala area, Uganda, recorded in 1990 and resampled in 2010 was used to analyse spatial variation in AORs at regional scales, variation between tree size classes and temporal change in these patterns. Slopes of the AORs for each forest were related to data on forest disturbances and effects of species traits on AOR at regional scales assessed. There were statistically significant positive interspecific AORs at regional scales. Over two decades, the strength of AOR and slopes increased at the regional scale. At local scale, slopes decreased, in correspondence with increasing disturbance. Species traits interacted with abundance to explain statistically significant variation in occupancy. Species successional status best explained occupancy variability. Incorporating species' traits and anthropogenic disturbance over time may lead to better understanding of the variation in interspecific AOR, and these results suggest that anthropogenic exploitation could be responsible for the changes in slope over time.     

Habitat use by harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in a seasonally ice-covered region, the western Hudson Bay

Over the last few decades, the period of ice cover in Hudson Bay has decreased, owing to climate warming, with breakup occurring approximately 3 weeks earlier than it did 30 years ago. The trend towards lengthening of the open water season has led to speculation that ringed seal numbers would decline, but then harbour seals might become numerous enough to replace ringed seals in the diet of polar bears. The movement patterns of 18 harbour seals equipped with satellite-linked transmitters in the Churchill River estuary (western Hudson Bay) were examined, as well as the dive behaviour of 11 of these seals. During the ice-free period, seals followed a general central place-foraging strategy, making repeated trips between their haul-out site in the Churchill River estuary and nearshore areas (<20 km) near the river mouth and estuary. Seal behaviour changed significantly as ice started to form along the coast of western Hudson Bay: animals remained significantly farther from the Churchill River haul-out site and from the coast and performed longer and deeper dives. However, throughout the entire tracking period, whether ice was present or not, all animals restricted their movements to a narrow band of shallow coastal waters (<50 m depth) along a 600-km stretch of the western Hudson Bay coastline, centred on the Churchill River estuary haul-out site. This natural self-limitation to nearshore shallow waters could restrict the potential for the population to increase in size and replace ringed seals as a primary energy resource for polar bears.     

Dive types and circadian behaviour patterns of Saimaa ringed seals<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phoca hispida saimensis</Emphasis> during the open-water season

Diving and circadian behaviour patterns of 7 free-ranging Saimaa ringed sealsPhoca hispida saimensis Nordquist, 1899 were examined by VHF-radiotelemetry during open-water seasons between May and November in Lake Saimaa, eastern Finland. The mean recorded dive duration ranged from 2.8 to 6.5 min, with a maximum of 21 min. The mean dive depth ranged from 9.8 to 15.7 m, with maximum of 39.6 m. The maximum dive depth of each seal was limited by water depth in the study area. The dive depths were positively correlated with dive duration and body mass of the seal. Five different dive types were defined, as based on their depth-time characteristics, each falling into one of the three functional categories: travelling, feeding, and resting. Long duration diving bouts occurred mostly at night and were presumed to be resting dives. Saimaa ringed seals exhibited a circadian pattern of haul-out behaviour that shifted seasonally. During molting (May–June) the seals hauled-out both day and night, but later in summer haul-out was more frequent at night.     

The effect of a large Danish offshore wind farm on harbor and gray seal haul-out behavior

This study investigates the effects of the construction and operation of a large Danish offshore wind farm on harbor and gray seal haul-out behavior within a nearby (4 km) seal sanctuary. Time-lapse photography, visual monitoring, and aerial surveys were used to monitor the number of seals on land in daylight hours. Seals were monitored during two preconstruction periods (19 June–31 August 2001 and April–August 2002), a construction period of the wind farm (August 2002–December 2003), and a period of operation of the wind farm (December 2003–December 2004). Monthly aerial surveys were conducted to estimate the proportion of seals in the sanctuary relative to neighboring haul-out sites. From preconstruction to construction and through the first year of operation the number of harbor seals in the sanctuary increased at the same rate as the number of seals at the neighboring haul-out sites. No long-term effects on haul-out behavior were found due to construction and operation of the wind farm. However, a significant short-term decrease was seen in the number of seals present on land during sheet pile driving in or near the wind farm. Acoustic deterrents were utilized simultaneously to avoid hearing damage.     

Spatial variation in foraging behaviour of a marine top predator (Phoca vitulina) determined by a large-scale satellite tagging program

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is a widespread marine predator in Northern Hemisphere waters. British populations have been subject to rapid declines in recent years. Food supply or inter-specific competition may be implicated but basic ecological data are lacking and there are few studies of harbour seal foraging distribution and habits. In this study, satellite tagging conducted at the major seal haul outs around the British Isles showed both that seal movements were highly variable among individuals and that foraging strategy appears to be specialized within particular regions. We investigated whether these apparent differences could be explained by individual level factors: by modelling measures of trip duration and distance travelled as a function of size, sex and body condition. However, these were not found to be good predictors of foraging trip duration or distance, which instead was best predicted by tagging region, time of year and inter-trip duration. Therefore, we propose that local habitat conditions and the constraints they impose are the major determinants of foraging movements. Specifically the distance to profitable feeding grounds from suitable haul-out locations may dictate foraging strategy and behaviour. Accounting for proximity to productive foraging resources is likely to be an important component of understanding population processes. Despite more extensive offshore movements than expected, there was also marked fidelity to the local haul-out region with limited connectivity between study regions. These empirical observations of regional exchange at short time scales demonstrates the value of large scale electronic tagging programs for robust characterization of at-sea foraging behaviour at a wide spatial scale.     

Movements, diving and foraging behaviour of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus)

This study presents the first direct observations of the movements and behaviour of free-ranging grey seals at sea. Radio and ultrasonic transmitters were attached to three sub-adult male grey seals which were then tracked from a suitable vessel. Behaviour at sea fell into one of three categories: travelling between haul-outs, short duration trips, and resting adjacent to haul-out sites. Travelling was characterized by direct, relatively fast horizontal movement and by V-shaped dive profiles. During short duration trips the seals swam slower and invariably exhibited square-wave dive profiles, spending approximately 60% of total dive duration at the maximum depth. Resting involved shallow dives close to haul-out sites and an absence of directed lateral movement.
The excellent navigational abilities of grey seals are illustrated by the rapid, direct swimming between distant haul-out sites. It is proposed that short duration trips are specifically for foraging because of their association with other piscivores, and because swimming was slow and mostly on or near the sea bed (grey seals are known to feed almost exclusively on demersal and benthic fish). These trips accounted for only 14% of the nine days that seal 1 was tracked. It is also proposed that the habit of diving to the sea bed whilst travelling between distant haul-out sites is to allow opportunistic foraging with only a small increase in total swimming distance.     

DIEL HAUL-OUT PATTERNS AND SITE FIDELITY OF HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) ON SAN MIGUEL ISLAND, CALIFORNIA, IN AUTUMN

We studied the haul-out patterns and movements of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardsi ) on San Miguel Island, California, from 23 October through 6 December 1982 by attaching a radio transmitter to each of 18 seals and monitoring their presence ashore with continuously scanning receivers. Seals hauled out at all hours although, on average, the largest proportion of tagged seals was ashore between 1300 and 1500 h. Median durations of haul-out bouts of individual seals ranged from 4.7 to 21.8 h; 81% of all haul-out bouts were less than 12 h and 3% were longer than 24 h. Eighty-one percent of the seals that were resighted at least twice used only the sites where they were tagged; two seals used two sites and one seal used three. Most seals were hauled out on fewer than 51% of the days sampled. On average, about 41% of tagged seals hauled out each day whereas an average of about 19% was hauled out during peak afternoon hours. Using telemetry data to correct a count of 412 seals made during an aerial survey, we estimated absolute abundance at about 2,168 seals; a modified Peterson mark-recapture model produced an estimate of about 1,445 seals.     

HARBOR SEAL TRACKING AND TELEMETRY BY SATELLITE

We tested a satellite Platform Transmitter Terminal (PTT) in the laboratory (on a float and on captive seals) and on a free-ranging harbor seal in the Southern California Bight to investigate the utility of satellite telemetry in documenting seals'at-sea behavior and movements. We used records from a microprocessor-based time-depth recorder (TDR) to interpret location and diving records from the PTT. For the free-ranging harbor seal, we obtained at least one uplink during 70% (while the seal was at sea) to 82% (while she was ashore) of satellite passes and at least one location each day. Of 62 locations determined by Service Argos for the free-ranging seal, 20 were verified from TDR records to have been at sea; these indicated that the seal may have ranged up to 48 km from the haul-out site, although most locations were within 5 km. The accuracies of locations calculated when the seal was at sea (±15 km) were substantially less than when it was ashore (±1.5 km), thus limiting at-sea tracking of seals by satellite to rather gross movements. Fewer transmissions were detected and locations calculated when the seal was actively diving than when it was swimming near the surface as it departed from or returned to the haul-out site. Consequently, average dive durations indicated by the PTT were substantially shorter than those calculated from TDR records. Documentation of foraging areas and detailed at-sea movements using satellite technology may not be possible for pinnipeds unless PTT-transmission rates are increased substantially from the 1 per 45 set maximum rate now permitted by Service Argos.     

Influence of time of day and month on Weddell seal haul-out patterns at the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica

A diurnal pattern in haul-out behaviour has been described for Weddell seals at McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, but regional and seasonal variations were previously unknown. Knowledge of activity patterns is important for standardising census methods and census data. This study quantified the diurnal pattern in haul-out behaviour of Weddell seals at the Vestfold Hills from October 1994 to March 1995. Sequential counts of seals on the ice showed that, between 0900 and 1930 hours, seal abundance differed up to 95%. Fewer seals were hauled out in the morning than in the afternoon. The maximum numbers of seals were hauled out at the warmest time of day. The diurnal cycle was less pronounced in the breeding season than in the moulting season. The findings indicated the importance of censusing Weddell seals after 1430 hours and before 1700 hours local time, especially in the moulting season. Correction factors are given for month and time of day. Received: 27 November 1996 / Accepted: 1 May 1997     

DIVING BEHAVIOR OF THE SAIMAA RINGED SEAL (PHOCA HISPIDA SAIMENSIS NORDQ.)

The activity and diving patterns of four adult Saimaa ringed seals ( Phoca hispida saimensis , a landlocked subspecies living in Lake Saimaa, Finland) were examined during spring, summer, and autumn by the use of VHF-transmitters. Over 17,000 dives were registered. The duration of the dives and diving patterns differed among individuals. The mean duration of dives increased from spring to autumn; e.g. , in one individual the mean dive duration increased from 6 min in June to 10.5 min in October. The haul-out periods of one individual in May to early June made up 46.2% of its total activity budget, but in another individual in July to August the haul-out periods made up only 11% of the budget and the seal was submerged for 80% of the time. Periods of successive long duration dives (>10 min) were observed in three individuals in summer and autumn. The longest dive measured was 23 min. The duration of the periods containing long dives was often over three hours (maximum six hours) and the mean duration of the dives about 15 min. These long duration dives are assumed to be aerobic resting dives. Generally, the dives of the Saimaa ringed seal appear to be of longer duration than previously assumed.     

HAUL-OUT PATTERNS, SITE FIDELITY AND ACTIVITY BUDGETS OF MALE HOOKER'S SEA LIONS (PHOCARCTOS HOOKERI) ON THE NEW ZEALAND MAINLAND

Diurnal and seasonal haul-out patterns, site fidelity and activity budgets of individually identified Hooker's sea lions were studied for two years at Papanui Beach, Otago Peninsula, New Zealand.
Fourteen male sea lions were identified. Lengths ranged from 1.65 m–2.28 m and estimated ages from 2-11 yr. The population consisted of four sexually and socially mature (potentially breeding), eight sexually mature but socially immature and two immature males. Most haul-outs (95.6%) were by nine identifiable individuals (Residents) returning on a regular basis, suggesting a high degree of site specificity. Emigration and recruitment were low in relation to the length of the study. Daily arrivals (mean = 0844 h, SD = 1.49) and departures (mean = 1802 h, SD = 1.18) indicate nocturnal feeding. During March 1986 sea lions spent 43.8% of each day ashore (= 78% of daylight hours). Numbers of sea lions hauled out declined in both breeding seasons; in 1986/87 this was due to a decrease in haul-out frequency of resident animals. All but one of these sea lions returned after the breeding season.
Sea lions preferentially selected the middle and the extreme ends of the beach as haul-out sites. During winter use was made of the grass dunes as haul-out areas.
There were significant differences in the frequencies of behavioral activities between summer and winter; more time was allocated to resting in summer.     

Maximum likelihood population size estimation of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea based on a mark–recapture experiment

1. The harbour seal population Phoca vitulina in the entire Wadden Sea was severely depleted due to a virus-epizootic during 1988. A comprehensive study on the population biology and activity patterns was subsequently initiated to design a management and conservation plan. The main objective of this study was to estimate harbour seal abundance in the different regions of the Wadden Sea.
2. We investigated the potential of a mark–recapture experiment using VHF radio-tags in combination with repeated aerial surveys to estimate the number of harbour seals in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. The number of harbour seals hauled-out and the presence of any radio-tagged seals was monitored during seven aerial surveys of all known haul-out sites in the Dutch Wadden Sea over the 1994 breeding season.
3. A maximum likelihood (ML) estimator was developed to infer the rate of tag-loss and the size of the local prepupping population.
4. The ML estimate of the number of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea was 1536 (95% confidence limits were 1225 and 2200). The corresponding maximum proportion of seals hauled-out was 68%.
5. The use of VHF radio-tags which can be monitored from the air provides a way of correcting aerial survey counts for the proportion of harbour seals hauled-out during the surveys. Since haul-out behaviour may be influenced by local conditions, such as exposure time of sand banks, we recommend this technique be repeated in other areas of the Wadden Sea rather than using the estimates from the current study in other areas.     

HAUL-OUT SELECTION BY PACIFIC HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDII): ISOLATION AND PERCEIVED PREDATION RISK

The potential for non-aquatic predators to influence habitat use by harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) in a nearshore marine environment was studied by examining haul-out site use and through an experimental approach. Distance from shore, distance to possible foraging depths, peripheral water depth, and haul-out areas were quantified for each haul-out. There was a positive relationship between the number of seals hauled out and the distance from shore for eight known haul-out sites. The hypothesis that harbor seals increasingly hauled out farther offshore to reduce predation risk was tested experimentally by measuring their response to a model of a potential terrestrial predator in comparison to a control object, and to disturbance by a human at one of the study sites. Harbor seals abandoned the haul-out in the presence of the predator model, but showed little response to the controls, suggesting they possess a threat image for terrestrial predators and avoid hauling out when it is perceived. These results support the hypothesis that harbor seals select isolated sites to reduce exposure to terrestrial carnivores.     

Changes in haul-out use by spotted seals (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phoca largha</Emphasis>) on Rebun Island,Hokkado, Japan,in response to controls on harmful animals

Harmful animal controls on spotted seals on Rebun Island have been conducted each spring since 2010 due to an increase in the number of seals and damage to local fisheries. To evaluate the influences of controls on seals, we used the numbers of haul-out sites and hauled-out seals, and photo-identification to study differences in the usage patterns of haul-out sites by seals before and after controls. As a result, two major changes were confirmed. Firstly, in spring after controls, the numbers of hauled-out seals at Northern Rebun (NR) greatly decreased, while at Bensashi (Ben) on the southern side of Rebun they greatly increased, compared to spring prior to controls. Secondly, the number of identified seals observed at both NR and Ben (NR-Ben) increased after controls, while most of the seals that changed to NR-Ben after controls were observed only at NR (NR-NR) before controls. Additionally, most of the seals using NR-Ben were observed year-round. The controls had a direct influence on reducing the numbers of seals in the controls area mainly during the period of controls. However, many seals that avoided the controls area used other haul-out sites, and the numbers of year-round-seals on Rebun increased after controls.     

The extent and significance of petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in Crater Lake,Oregon

In order to evaluate hydrocarbon inputs to Crater Lake from anthropogenic and natural sources, samples of water, aerosol, surface slick and sediment were collected and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) for determination of their aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations and compositions. Results show that hydrocarbons originate from both natural (terrestrial plant waxes and algae) and anthropogenic (petroleum use) sources and are entering the lake through direct input and atmospheric transport. The concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons range from low to undetectable. The distributions and abundances of n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and unresolved complex mixture (UCM) from petroleum are similar for all surface slick sampling sites. The estimated levels of PAH in surface slicks range from 7–9 ng/m² which are low. Transport of petroleum-derived hydrocarbons from the lake surface has resulted in their presence in some sediments, particularly near the boat operations mooring (total petroleum HC = 1440 μg/kg, dry wt. compared to naturally derived n-alkanes, 240 μg/kg, dry wt.). The presence of biomarkers such as the tricyclic terpanes, hopanes and steranes in shallow sediments further confirms petroleum input from boat traffic. In the deep lake sediments, petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations were very low (16 μg/kg, dry wt.). Very low concentrations of PAH were detected in shallow sediments (17–40 μg/kg at 5 m depth near the boat operations) and deep sediments (3–15 μg/kg at 580 m depth). The individual PAH concentrations in sediments (μg/kg or ppb range) are at least three orders of magnitude less than reported threshold effects levels (mg/kg or ppm range, test amphipod Hyalella azteca). Therefore, no adverse effects are expected to occur in benthic biota exposed to these sediments. Boating activities are leaving a detectable level of petroleum in surface waters and lake sediments but these concentrations are very low.     

Large-Scale Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: Implications for North American Climate Change

Recent climate reconstructions are analyzed specifically for insights into those patterns of climate variability in past centuries with greatest impact on the North American region. Regional variability, largely associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and multidecadal patterns of natural variability, are found to mask the emergence of an anthropogenic temperature signal in North America. Substantial recent temperature anomalies may however indicate a possible recent emergence of this signal in the region. Multidecadal North Atlantic variability is likely to positively reinforce any anthropogenic warming over substantial parts of North America in coming decades. The recent magnitudes of El Nino events appear to be unprecedented over the past several centuries. These recent changes, if anthropogenic in nature, may outweigh the projection of larger-scale climate change patterns onto the region in a climate change scenario. The implications of such changes for North America, however, are not yet clear. These observations suggest caution in assessing regional climate change scenarios in North America without a detailed consideration of possible anthropogenic changes in climate patterns influencing the region.