The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets

We investigate whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during currency crises. Earlier statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that the problem with the earlier studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that contrary to much popular analysis, private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.     

Financial crises and venture capital development: evidence from Indonesia

This exploratory study examines how financial crises impede or support venture capital (VC) development in the context of Indonesia and the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis (AFC). Using a mixed-methods research methodology, the study finds that financial crises have divergent effects on VC development. Financial crises support VC development through accelerated VC practise diffusion, but impede that development by slowing VC enabling conditions. The effects of the substantial macro institutional changes often associated with financial crises are insufficient to overcome these impediments, resulting in a smaller VC industry.     

Financial vulnerability and export dynamics

This paper examines the implication of financial shocks on firms’ export dynamics in developing economies. To address this question, we use the Exporter Dynamics Dataset, which contains new data on the microstructure of exports for 34 developing countries between 1997 and 2011, and investigate how exporter behaviour is affected by financial crises. We find that financial crises in both the origin and destination countries have a large negative effect on firm, product and destination dynamics, particularly in industries dependent on external finance. Financial crises make the costs of exporting more difficult to meet and in turn reduce firms’ ability to start exporting, introduce new products and sell to new destinations. We also find that the impact of financial crises is less pronounced in exporting countries with relatively more open capital accounts, suggesting that portfolio inflows may be a good substitute for underdeveloped domestic financial markets.     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

The Aftermath of a Currency Collapse: How Different are Emerging Markets?

In currency crises, unlike in orderly devaluations, the financial markets dominate events. Previous research has shown that the output effects of a crisis tend to be worse in emerging markets, and the current account adjustment greater. This paper examines the evolution of a wider range of macroeconomic variables from two years before a currency collapse to two years afterwards. On the basis of twelve recent episodes, it is shown that currency collapses (crises followed by depreciations) have had a much greater adverse impact in emerging markets (defined as relatively high‐income developing countries exposed to international capital markets) than in developed countries. There is greater nominal and real depreciation, a substantial inflation shock, a much bigger output effect, and far greater import compression, whilst inflows of portfolio capital virtually cease. These differences are statistically significant. Nevertheless there is wide variation n the post‐collapse experience of the six emerging markets studied (Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia and Brazil). Although all six experienced a sudden stop or even a reversal of capital flows and very sharp nominal depreciations, inflation remained low in Thailand, Korea and Brazil, and output losses were comparatively small in Russia and Brazil. Previous studies of individual crises suggest that important factors are the state of the banking system and its vulnerability to currency movements, the ability of the authorities to establish a credible macroeconomic policy after the collapse, and whether the crisis triggers significant political instability.     

Economic growth,financial market,and twin crises

In this study, we look not only to provide empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial crises on economic growth, but also to examine the roles of insurance development, financial liberalization, financial institution, and crisis intervention policies on the relationship between the two. We employ a panel data framework from 50 countries by applying the dynamic panel generalized method of moments model. Our main empirical results show that financial crises do have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. In addition, governments or authorities are encouraged to further enhance their insurance sector in order to help spur economic growth when financial crises arise. The government intervention policy choice is also an important factor influencing economic growth during crises.     

美国金融危机传导机制的研究

目前,美国金融危机所产生的影响仍未消除,对外开放程度越高的国家受到的影响越严重。金融危机包括货币危机、外债危机、银行业危机以及资本市场危机,四种危机之间相互感染,通过金融、贸易、心理等渠道将其传导到不同的地理空间及市场或领域之中。危机的传导在时间和空间上是同步进行的,并产生"连锁反应",对世界各国的影响极为严重。世界各国应健全金融法规,加强投资者的教育,并加大各国之间的经济交流,以更好的防范金融危机,共谋世界经济平稳健康地发展。     

Firm Shutdown During the Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crises: Empirical Evidence from Portugal

This paper examines Portuguese firms’ survival over the business cycle and investigates whether the effect of firm size varies across the phases of the cycle and with the type of shock associated with periods of economic contraction. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shut down than larger firms. Within each size band, however, we found that during the two crises examined, micro firms experienced hazards of closing (relative to large firms) at least similar to those observed in the pre-crisis period, while medium-sized firms were found to have been more vulnerable during the financial crisis period but showed more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. The results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis, firms faced a higher probability of closing than they did during the financial crisis.     

Asset Substitution and Capital Use by Firms Facing Financial Repression

Firm behavior is examined during a period of financial repression in Brazil. Empirical findings indicate that firms experiencing rising inflation rates: (1) increase their capital stock while reducing liquid asset holdings; (2) experience increases in the productivity of capital (i.e. a rise in the output–capital ratio); (3) increase the scale of the firm’s operations both because of the rising capital productivity and the greater quantity of capital; (4) most firms increase liquid asset holdings as they expand production, although Brazilian firms do so at about twice the rate of multinational firms; (5) do not change overall inventory holdings; however, inventories increase as output rises for multinational firms while for Brazilian firms inventories decrease as output rises; and (6) firms that are more likely to face financial constraints expand their scale of operations at a faster rate as they accumulate more debt.     

The Political Economy of Basle II: The Costs for Poor Countries

The financial crises of the 1990s triggered many changes to the design of the international financial system. We use the formulation of the new Basle capital accord for banks (B‐II) to illustrate that, while much affected, developing countries have had very little influence on this so‐called new international financial architecture. We argue that B‐II has been formulated largely to serve the interests of powerful market players, with developing countries being left out. At the same time, we demonstrate that B‐II is likely to raise the costs and reduce the supply of external financing for developing countries in particular. Furthermore, and importantly, B‐II may well increase the pro‐cyclicality of external financing, an unfortunate outcome given that developing countries already face much volatility in terms of capital flows. Overall, while B‐II may indeed compensate for a range of weaknesses of Basle I, the exclusionary policy process and costs which B‐II imposes on developing countries require a re‐think of the way in which crucial elements of financial governance, such as the Basle capital accords, are developed and implemented.     

危机——机遇,危机管理的折点

企业发展中会面临经营危机、管理危机、品牌危机、公关危机等等防不胜防的多种"企业危机",并且无论哪种危机发生,都有可能给企业带来致命的打击.对于企业来说采取何种处理方式往往决定着应对危机的成败得失,危机管理迫在眉睫,它不再仅仅局限于处理突发性事件,而注重挖掘企业管理的深层次原因日渐成为企业管理必不可少的组成部分.     

External liabilities and crises

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto.     

Currency collapses and output dynamics in commodity dependent countries

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) and real output by paying a specific attention to commodity exporting countries. Using a dataset including 108 emerging and developing economies for the period 1970–2016, we document and estimate what happens to output growth during episodes of currency collapses for commodity-dependent and non commodity-dependent countries. One particular feature of our analysis is to control for war events. We find that currency crises occur more frequently in commodity-dependent countries (one crisis every 17 years versus 30 years for non commodity-dependent countries) and with a larger magnitude (median depreciation about 12% points larger for commodity-dependent countries). In both groups of countries, output growth declines in response to the currency collapse. It appears however that output growth starts to slowdown earlier in commodity-dependent countries while the impact is more persistent in non commodity-dependent countries. The magnitude of the output growth slowdown is very close between the two groups of countries. Finally, we find that the output growth-currency collapse relationship differs among commodity-dependent countries according to the category of their main exported commodity. More precisely, it turns out that currency collapses affect mainly the output growth of agricultural exporters while the impact on the output growth of energy or mineral exporters is not significant.     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.     

The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID-19 pandemic shock

This study examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in reducing the banks' risk during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares these results with the systemic banking crises years. Based on a sample of 624 banks across 40 countries during the period 2006–2020, we find that loosening capital-aimed macroprudential policies effectively reduced banks' risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, while this behavior led to increased risk during the systemic crises years. In contrast, tightening the remaining macroprudential policies during the systemic crises years and during the pandemic proved effective in reducing banks' risk. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of the impact of macroprudential policies was stronger during the systemic crisis than that during the pandemic. Finally, we show that the results are driven by the capital requirement prudential policy, both during the systemic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, although the conservation buffer and the leverage limit also contributes to the ineffectiveness of these policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The banks' leverage and loan growth also play an enhancing role of the effects of the macroprudential policies.     

Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?

This paper investigates the linkages between banking crises and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the last two decades. The paper examines whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results seem to indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate diminishes the likelihood of banking crises among developing countries. However, once crises occur, the real costs associated with them appear to be larger in countries with fixed exchange rates. The duration of crises does not seem to be robustly affected by the exchange rate policy.     

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the causes of financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980–2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries the vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalization of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.     

产品伤害危机管理因素对消费者信任修复的影响研究

利用联合分析法,通过情景模拟调研,对产品伤害危机管理中的重要影响因素(如企业社会责任、企业响应策略、媒体效用以及时间)在不同危机严重程度(非常严重、中等程度、轻微程度)下对消费者信任修复造成的影响以及重要程度进行研究,结果表明,时间对于非常严重程度下的消费者信任修复最为重要,响应策略对于中等严重程度下的消费者信任修复最为重要,而企业社会责任对于轻微程度下的消费者信任修复最为重要。     

The empirics of banking regulation

This paper empirically assesses whether banking regulation is effective at preventing banking crises. We use a monthly index of banking system fragility, which captures almost every source of risk in the banking system, to estimate the effect of regulatory measures (entry restriction, reserve requirement, deposit insurance, and capital adequacy requirement) on banking stability in the context of a Markov-switching model. Our methodology is less prone to selection and simultaneity bias which are common in this type of study. We apply this method to the Indonesian banking system, which has been subject to several regulatory changes over the last couple of decades, and at the same time, has experienced a severe systemic crisis. We draw the following findings from this research: (i) entry restriction reduces crisis duration as well as the probability of such an occurrence; (ii) larger reserve requirements reduce crisis duration, but increase banking instability; (iii) deposit insurance increases banking system stability and reduces crisis duration; (vi) capital adequacy requirement improves stability and reduces the expected duration of banking crises. Finally, we find that previous studies present a negative simultaneity bias for deposit insurance and a negative selection bias for capital adequacy requirement. We can infer from these findings that any relevant assessment of the impact of a regulation, which has been introduced during the recent period of banking instability, should account for simultaneity.     

The role of trade credit in the recent subprime financial crisis

This study tests firms’ financing behavior, especially the causal relation between trade credit and bank credit around the time of the recent subprime financial crises. I find bank credit and accounts payable/receivable are simultaneously determined and there is a substitute/complementary effect between bank credit and accounts payable/receivable. Moreover, I test a cross-sectional response to crisis and find that firms with a more vulnerable financial position (i.e., financially constrained firms) are more likely to be negatively affected by crisis and, in turn, are more likely to cut their supply of credit to customers and increase their use of credit from suppliers.