Spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of dust events over Iran

Large near-field tsunamis pose a significant threat to the Canadian West Coast due to its proximity to the circum-Pacific belt where a significant tsunami-inducing earthquake event from the Cascadia subduction zone is expected. This study investigated the risks associated with such an event in terms of pedestrian evacuation needs and plans for the Town of Tofino, a small community located on the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The population-at-risk within the hazard zone and its ability to evacuate to safety is evaluated using anisotropic path-distance modelling. Mitigation measures, such as vertical evacuation buildings, are quantitatively evaluated. Site-specific inundation modelling was not performed as part of this study; tsunami hazard and safe zones were computed using a range of run-ups varying between 3 and 25 m. It was established that up to 80% of the population is within the maximum hazard zone considered. This evacuation modelling exercise indicates that a maximum of 13% of the population would have insufficient time to reach safety when using a mobility-impaired ambulatory speed. The use of three vertical evacuation buildings can reduce the risk of losing population in this category by 99%. Although some conservative assumptions were used (vertical datum at higher high water, reductions in safe zones by generalization process and mobility-impaired evacuation speeds), the evacuation potential is likely overestimated due to the coarseness of the topographic data used in the evacuation modelling and from an overestimated first wave arrival time. This is the first Canadian study which used anisotropic evacuation modelling to evaluate the vulnerability of a Canadian community to tsunami inundation.

     

Synoptic and remote sensing analysis of dust events in southwestern Iran

Southwest regions of Iran, due to dry environmental and climatic conditions, have been identified as one of the five major regions in the world. In recent years, large parts of Iran have been affected by suspended particles from the dust storms. The studied area is located in foothills of the Zagros Mountain Range just north of Persian Gulf in southwest of Iran. Dust and other meteorological data were prepared in 3-hour intervals from 12 synoptic weather stations. For tracking dust storms, satellite images of MODIS were used. Atmospheric conditions during the occurrence of dust storms were determined using NCEP reanalysis data. According to the statistical calculations, most storms occurred in the spring and summer. The lowest number of dust events occurred in the fall and winter particularly in December and January, when there are high possibilities of rainfall occurrence and dynamical instability conditions in the north and west of the region. The results illustrated that the highest amounts of hourly dust occurred in the afternoon and the lowest amounts occurred at 00UTC (3.30 am local times). It seems that it is closely related to the heating surface and the occurrence of local dry instabilities. Analyses of data showed that dust amounts (or volumes) in all the stations have two climactic peaks, first between 1982 and 1990 and second between 2005 and 2008 periods. These peaks can be related to a variety of factors including anthropogenic factors such as war, agricultural activities, dam construction, and widespread droughts.     

Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.     

Climatology of dust days in the Central Plateau of Iran

Natural Hazards - Dust storms are a major natural hazard to human health. Severe erosive storms in parts of the Central Plateau of Iran have made the situation very difficult for the inhabitants,...     

Development of a parameterization for simulating the urban temperature hazard using satellite observations in climate model

Urban surface temperature is hazardously higher than surrounding regions (so-called urban heat island effect UHI). Accurately simulating urbanization-induced temperature hazard is critical for realistically representing urban regions in the land surface-atmosphere climate system. However, inclusion of urban landscapes in regional or global climate models has been overlooked due to the coarse spatial resolution of these models as well as the lack of observations for urban physical properties. Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations illustrate important urban physical properties, including skin temperature, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and leaf area index, It is possible to identify the unique urban features globally and thus simulate global urban processes. An urban scheme is designed to represent the urban-modified physical parameters (albedo, emissivity, land cover, roughness length, thermal and hydraulic properties) and to include new, unique physical processes that exist in urban regions. The urban scheme is coupled with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model Version 2 (CLM2) and single column coupled NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2/CLM2 to assess the mechanisms responsible for UHI. There are two-steps in our model development. First, satellite observations of albedo, emissivity, LAI, and in situ observed thermal properties are updated in CLM2 to represent the first-order urban effects. Second, new terms representing the urban anthropogenic heat flux, storage heat flux, and roughness length are calculated in the model. Model simulations suggest that human activity-induced surface temperature hazard results in overlying atmosphere instability and convective rainfall, which may enhance the possibility of urban flood hazard.

Recent hydrological behavior of the East African great lakes region inferred from GRACE,satellite altimetry and rainfall observations

We have jointly analysed space gravimetry data from the GRACE space mission, satellite altimetry data and precipitation over the East African Great Lakes region, in order to study the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological parameters (total water storage, lake water volume and rainfall). We find that terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE and precipitation display a common mode of variability at interannual time scale, with a minimum in late 2005, followed by a rise in 2006–2007. We argue that this event is due to forcing by the strong 2006 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on East African rainfall. We also show that GRACE TWS is linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Combination of the altimetry-based lake water volume with TWS from GRACE over the lakes drainage basins allows estimating soil moisture and groundwater volume variations. Comparison with the WGHM hydrological model outputs is performed and discussed.     

Enhancement of hydrothermal alteration zones using the spectral feature fitting method in Rabor area, Kerman, Iran

Rabor exploration area is in southeast of Kerman province, south of Urumieh-Dokhtar volcanic belt. Since there are many evidences of porphyry copper mineralization in this belt, prospecting and exploration of the intact and undiscovered places, especially the southern part of this belt, seems necessary. In this paper, use has been made of the “spectral feature fitting” (SFF) method to process ASTER satellite data (in Rabor exploratory area as a case study) for the identification and enhancement of hydrothermal alteration zones related to probable porphyry copper mineralization. The method is based on the comparison of absorption features in the image and the reference spectra. The distribution map of the indicator clay minerals, such as kaolinite, muscovite, illite, montmorillonite, alunite, pyrophyllite, dickite, chlorite, and epidote in Rabor exploratory area has been prepared with the help of this method. Identification and enhancement of alteration zones and overlaying Pay-Negin ore index on every individual zone reveal the capability and high efficiency of the SFF method in processing ASTER satellite data and preparing the distribution map of alteration minerals. Field and laboratory studies have shown that main alterations in this area are phyllic and argillic. These studies confirm the results obtained from remote sensing in the area.     

Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in Central Iran: Analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region

This paper uses high-resolution images and field investigations, in conjunction with seismic reflection data, to constrain active structural deformation in the Kashan region of Central Iran. Offset stream beds and Qanats indicate right-lateral strike slip motion at a rate of about 2 mm/yr along the NW–SE trending Qom-Zefreh fault zone which has long been recognized as one of the major faults in Central Iran. However, the pattern of drainage systems across the active growing folds including deep incision of stream beds and deflected streams indicate uplift at depth on thrust faults dipping SW beneath the anticlines. Therefore, our studies in the Kashan region indicate that deformation occurs within Central Iran which is often considered to behave as a non-deforming block within the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone. The fact that the active Qom-Zefreh strike-slip fault runs parallel to the active folds, which overlie blind thrust faults, suggests that oblique motion of Arabia with respect to Eurasia is partitioned in this part of Central Iran.     

Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south-west development region,Romania

Located in the south-western part of Romania, the south-west development region overlaps the main relief forms: the Carpathians mountains, the Getic Subcarpathians, the Getic piedmont, the Romanian plain and the Danube valley. The study aims at providing an overview on the main pluvial parameters and their role in assessing rainfall erosivity in the study area. The authors assessed the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of some of the most significant pluvial parameters and their impact on the climatic aggressiveness in the study area. Thus, the monthly and annual mean and extreme climatic values for different rainfall related parameters (e.g., maximum amounts of precipitation/24 hr, heavy rainfall), as well as relevant indices and indicators for pluvial aggressiveness (Fournier, Fournier Modified, Angot) were calculated. The rainfall erosivity was assessed in order to provide both the spatial distribution of the triggering extreme weather phenomena and the resulted intensity classes for the analysed indices and indicators. The authors used long-term precipitation records (1961–2010) for the selected relevant meteorological stations distributed throughout all analysed relief units.     

An analysis of vegetation indices in relation to tree species diversity using by satellite data in the northern forests of Iran

Vegetation indices have been introduced for analyzing and assessing the status of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of vegetation using satellite images. However, choosing the best indices to be used in forest biodiversity and vegetation is one of the important problems faced by the users. The purpose of this research is to evaluate six vegetation indices in the analysis of tree species diversity in the northern forests of Iran. The present research uses LISS III sensor data from IRS-P6 satellite. Geometric rectification of images was performed using ground control points, and Chavez model was used for atmospheric correction of the data. The six spectral vegetation indices included NDVI, IPVI, Ashburn Vegetation Index (AVI), TVI, TTVI, and RVI. Shannon–Wiener species diversity index was used to analyze diversity, and the value of the index was calculated in each sample plot. Then, the spectral values of each sample plot were extracted from different bands. The best subset regression was used to analyze the relationship between species diversity and the related bands. The results obtained from the regression showed that polynomial equations under scrutiny as independent variables can assess tree and shrub species diversity better than other bands and compounds used (R ²?=?0.47). The obtained results also indicated a higher capacity in the case of the AVI index for estimating tree species diversity in the under study area.     

矿区地下水系统水质分类判别的多元统计分析

以某矿区地下水系统为例,对该矿区地下水水化学资料进行了多元统计分析方法耦合应用研究,主要包括利用因子分析对存在相关关系的离子变量进行空间降维处理,找出能够反映众多离子信息的基础变量(正交因子),以其作为系统聚类变量;运用系统聚类法获取能代表各地下水子系统水化学特征的典型水样;使用贝叶斯逐步线性判别分析建立地下水各子系统水化学判别模型(判别函数),并对随机检验样品进行判别归属和判别模型统计检验。结果表明:这是一种稳定性较好且切实有效的、适用于矿区地下水系统水化学分类及水源水化学判别的方法。     

Long-term impacts of dust storms on transport systems in south-eastern Iran

Natural Hazards - Dust storms are frequent in the Sistan region of south-eastern Iran and cause a wide range of problems, but few studies have assessed their negative impacts. This paper makes an...     

Regional modeling of dust storm of February 8, 2015 in the southwest of Iran

According to World Meteorological Organization report in 2015, the southwest of Iran has become one of the dust sources in the region. And the objective of this research is to study the dust storms originating in this region. For this purpose, based on the weather data of 14 stations, the dust storms of the region were investigated, and the dust storm of February 7, 2015, was selected due to its very high concentration of dust particles (66 times the normal values). For the analysis of source areas and storm paths, the FNL data was used. The regional models of Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre-Dust Regional Atmospheric Model 8b (DREAM 8b), Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model Barcelona Supercomputing Center (NMMB/BSC), and hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) were used to study and analyze the selected storm. The results showed that the dust event in February 8, 2016, has been the result of the polar front jet stream (PJF) caused by western immigrant system that had been over the Sahara in Africa, the deserts of Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and finally southwest of Iran in making the extreme dust event. According to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and point models of NAAPS, optical depth was very high. The DREAM 8b and NMMB/BSC models confirmed the impact of the local factors and closeness to the dust source regions. The backward tracking of the model with the HYSPLIT model showed three tracks transporting the dust particles to the region. This software also showed that the dust particles occupied an atmospheric tunnel of 1.5 km in diameter.     

Numerical simulation of cyclonic storms FANOOS, NARGIS with assimilation of conventional and satellite observations using 3-DVAR

In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.     

Investigating the impacts of typhoon-induced floods on the agriculture in the central region of Vietnam by using hydrological models and satellite data

Flooding associated with landing tropical cyclones (TCs) is one of the major natural hazards in the coastal region of Vietnam. Annually, approximately 5 or 6 TCs make landfall in Vietnam, bringing heavy rains and inducing flooding, particularly to the central coastal region because of its topography and geographic configuration. This study focuses on the modelling of typhoon-induced floods that have resulted in widespread damage to agriculture over the central Thua Thien Hue Province of Vietnam by coupling two well-known hydrological models, KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS (Daniel et al. in Open Hydrol J 5(1), 2011), and using GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) data as the satellite rainfall input. Landsat imagery and GIS are also used for mapping and analysing the inundated areas. The discharge and water level from the KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS models displayed acceptable results for the floods modelled from three selected typhoons; both the Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²) were greater than 0.6. The simulated inundation maps of these typhoon-induced floods were compared with those extracted from the Landsat imagery to assess consistency. The result revealed a similar spatial extension of the inundated agricultural areas. This information, together with the forecasted TC movements and associated rainfalls, will be helpful to plan methods for mitigating potential typhoon-induced flooding and damage, particularly damage to agricultural regions.     

Mapping and monitoring of dust storms in Iran by fuzzy clustering and remote sensing techniques

In this research, the frequency of dust storms was prepared at 87 synoptic stations for the period of 1987–2013. These data were classified by means of Fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. Satellite images of MODIS and brightness temperature index were also used for detection and tracking dust storm of 30 Jun 4 July 2008. The results indicated that Iran is classified in five clusters by the dust-storm-frequencies from which, cluster 5 is reclassified in three clusters because of its wide range. The maximum number of days with dust storms was observed in cluster 1 that includes only Zabol station with the frequency of 790 days with the duration 1987–2013. The minimum number of days with dust storms was observed in cluster 5-3 that includes the stations located in portions of North, Northwest, Northeast Iran and the higher elevations of the Zagros in western Iran. A case study about a severe dust storm in Iran using satellite images indicate that brightness temperature index (BTI) is a desired index for detection and monitoring of dust storms. The source of the investigated dust storms is Iraq and South of the Arabian Peninsula that had influenced the western half of Iran in several days. The frequency of dust storms increased markedly in the west, southwest of Iran and Persian Gulf around as main receptors from emerging dusty areas but it increased slightly in the eastern half of Iran.     

Assessment of the Aeolian sand dynamics in the region of Ain Sefra (Western Algeria), using wind data and satellite imagery

The region of Ain Sefra is an arid region suffering from sand encroachment. In this study, we are calculating the shifted sand quantity and efficient wind directions during a period of 30 years (1985 to 2015) in order to classify the danger. The study shows that efficient winds in the region are characterized by their potential drift estimated at 220 till 329. This classifies the region as medium. Besides, the resultant drift potential is 76 to 99 with a migration coefficient of 0.3 which gives a medium classification to the zone and proves the Aeolian erosion complex system and its interrelation with other factors. Efficient winds generally blow from South-west to North-east with an angle of 234°. Furthermore, there are other directions causing sand drifting. Sand movement quantity is estimated between 23.03 and 15,224 m³/m/year according to effective wind threshold speed, which is 5 to 6 m/s. Autumn is the period when sand mobility is higher, but it decreases in winter. On the other hand, sand potential movement was well shown through satellite imagery between 1985 and 2015. Indeed, it closely corresponded to the previous study. It showed sand movement direction from South-west to North-east, and sand surface increase reached 16.44% of the global zone surface. Whereas, it decreased ??2.5% between 1985 and 2015. There is an important concentration of sand accumulation under the western mountain foothills along which sand moves. This shows that the ground particularities play a crucial role in this phenomenon.     

Contamination and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in street dust of Tehran,Iran

Heavy metals are introduced in human tissue through breathing air, food chain and human skin. They can cause damage to the nervous system and internal organs. In the present study, sixty street dust samples were collected from the central area of Tehran and were digested in the laboratory to determine the content of Zn, Ni, Cd, Cr, Cu and Pb, using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The level of contamination with the analyzed metals was determined according to the following indices: geo-accumulation index (I _geo), enrichment factor (EF), pollution index (PI), integrated pollution index (IPI) and potential ecological risk index (RI). The average concentration of heavy metals found was in the order of Zn > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cr > Cd. The average I _geo values for Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were 1.53, ?1.88, 2.68, ?0.67, 1.62 and 2.70, respectively. Among the investigated heavy metals, zinc and copper had the maximum average EF values and were placed into the “very severe enrichment” class. Potential ecological risk factor (E _r) also indicated that Cd had the highest risk, and it was classified as of considerable potential ecological risk. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the appearance of Cd in the human environment. The calculated potential ecological risk index values also illustrated that the street dust samples presented a “moderate ecological risk.” The calculated IPI values showed that the pollution levels of the street dust samples ranged from high to extremely high.     

Active faults pattern and interplay in the Azerbaijan region (NW Iran)

Northwest Iran is dominated by two main sets of active strike slip faults that accommodate oblique convergence between the Arabian and Iranian Plates. The best known are the right-lateral North-Tabriz, Qoshadagh, Maragheh and Zagros (Main Recent) strike slip Faults. This work reports that these dominant NW–SE to E–W striking faults are conjugate to smaller, NNE–SSW striking, left-lateral faults with minor dip slip component. All of these active faults displace Precambrian rock units, which suggests that they root in the crystalline basement of the NW Iranian microcontinent. Coulomb stress variance during co-seismic rupture along one of these faults may cause reactivation of the other faults. The minor set of left-lateral fault is therefore important to introduce in seismic risk assessment.     

The atmospheric transport potential for water vapour and dust in the Sahel region

The transport of water vapour and dust in the Sahel can be assigned to identical atmospheric flow systems, the African Easterly Jet, the Easterly Waves and the Squall Lines. The yield of the rainy season in the Sahel depends on the conditions in the preceding rains of the season and is closely coupled to the surface heat budget both in the monsoonal air in the S and the trades in the N. The heat budget, in particular the evaporation after the passage of a Squall Line, is influenced not only by the total amount of preceding rains but also by the plant cover pumping the water to the surface and smoothing the magnitude of the evaporation in time. This feed-back mechanism may be made responsible for the persistence of the Sahel drought as experienced in recent years. The dust export from the African continent towards the Atlantic can only be so effective, because the Squall Lines and the African Easterly Jet are meshed in a way that produces large amounts of suspended material and lifts it to great heights where the transport velocity is very fast.