苏州市能源消费与可持续发展战略分析

本文通过对苏州近年能源消费情况和能源消费结构的分析,以及与国内国际水平的对比分析,指出以煤为主的能源结构与实现经济的可持续发展不适应,与5年实现GDP能耗下降20%的目标不适应。为此,需要通过技术节能和经济节能的手段,通过调整能源消费结构,大力发展清洁能源和可再生能源,发展循环经济,逐步降低煤炭在能源消费中的比例等,以改善能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率。     

国家采取多项综合措施确保“十一五”节能减排任务完成

中国人口众多,正处于工业化和城镇化快速发展时期,能源消费仍处于增长阶段。目前,中国的人均能源消费量只有美国的1/5。"十一五"以来,中国以较低的能源消费增长支撑了国民经济较快发展,"十一五"前四年,中国万元GDP能耗由1.276t标准煤下降到1.077t标准煤,年均下降4.15%。2010年是"十一五"规划最后一年,为完成"十一五"期间实现全国单位GDP能耗下降20%的节能减排目标,国务院各部委纷纷出台相应的措施,采取法律、行政、经济等多种手段,力争确保这一目标的顺利实现。未来5～10年,国家将进一步加大产业调整力度,大力发展新能源,逐步减少传统能源在能源需求中的比重,预计"十二五"期间,中国的煤炭在能源结构中的比重将由目前的70%下降到63%,中国风电、太阳能等可再生能源利用规模将达到1.1×108t标准煤;在2020年之前国家将投入5万亿元用于新兴能源产业建设;同时,国家还将重点推广257项新技术,支持新能源发展。     

1998年中国节能工作综述

1 基本情况1998年能源生产总量比1997年下降4.7%,能源消费总量比1997年增长2.0%,能源消费弹性系数为0.26左右.预计每万元国内生产总值能耗将由1997年的3.55t标准煤降至3.38t标准煤,节能率为4.8%,全社会节能量约为7000万吨标准煤,每万元工业增加值能耗将由1997年的5.50t标准煤下降到5.23t标准煤,均可完成1998年节能计划目标.1998年是《中华人民共和国节约能源法》贯彻实施的第一年.在全国各地学习、宣传、贯彻《节能法》的同时,国家有关部门印发了《新能源和可再生能源发展纲要》、《中国节能技术政策大纲》、《关于固定资产投资工程项目可行性研究报告“节能篇(章)编制及评估的规定》和《关于发展热电联产的若干规定》等四个配套法规.个别省市也颁布了地方节能法规.     

万家企业能源诊断浅析

<正>万家企业是指年综合能源消费量1万吨标准煤以上以及有关部门指定的年综合能源消费量5000吨标准煤以上的重点用能单位。初步统计,2010年全国共有17000家左右。万家企业能源消费量占全国能源消费总量的60%以上,因此,万家企业的节能降耗工作是国家完成"十二五"节能目标的重要抓手。抓好万家企业节能管理工作,是实现"十二五"单位GDP能耗降低16%、单位GDP二氧化碳排放降低17%约柬陛指标的重耍支撑和保     

我国“十二五”能源消费预测及影响因素分析

首先利用GM(1,1)预测方法和2000～2010年我国一次能源消费量数据对我国"十二五"一次能源消费量进行预测。预测结果表明:"十二五"期间我国能源消费量将保持持续上涨的趋势,到2015年将达到440489.1×104t标煤,明显高于"十二五"能源消费规划目标,这将不利于我国"节能减排工作"的顺利实现。经验表明,实际能源消费量常常与规划目标存在一定差距,应引起高度关注。为此,既要做好能源消费实际值将超过目标值的各项准备,同时也要加大工作力度,努力促进能源规划目标的实现。对经济发展、人口增长、产业结构、社会投资、能源利用效率、能源工业投资等我国能源消费影响因素进行灰色关联分析,结果表明,经济发展、人口增长是导致能源消费量迅猛上涨的首要因素,同时能源利用效率低下、能源建设投资力度有待提高以及产业结构不合理等因素也是造成能源消费持续增长的重要因素。在不影响经济增长以及我国作为人口大国的基本国情在短期内无法改变的条件下,需要着手推进技术节能,提高能源科技水平;加大能源建设投资力度,促进能源行业健康发展;推进结构节能,促进产业结构优化。     

我国出口产品贸易结构与交通运输结构对能源消费总量的影响

随着经济的快速发展,我国能源消费总量不断增加,在我国能源消费体系中进口与出口产品结构之间形成巨大差异,运输能耗居高不下制约了经济的发展。本文针对我国能源消费结构的现状,从优化能源消耗的角度调整出口产品贸易结构和交通运输结构,促进"十二五"期间节能减排目标的实现。     

我国节能减排形势和面临的严峻挑战

我国近几年节能减排取得巨大成就,与2005年比较,2009年全国单位GDP能耗降低15.56%;"十一五"前4年节能率为4.14%,节能量达到56511×104t标煤;环境污染物增长率和单位GDP污染物产生量明显下降。但节能减排形势依然严峻,目前完成"十一五"能源强度降低20%左右的目标任务十分艰巨。同时,能源资源相对短缺、节能压力巨大、能源开发利用效率不高、环境污染严重、节能管理体制改革明显滞后等问题依然存在。其原因主要是经济增长过快、产业结构调整十分艰难、节能降耗步履维艰、能源结构调整进展较慢、能源消费量增长迅速等。为了保持资源和环境的可持续发展,必须控制能源需求总量的增长,优化能源结构,2020年能源消费总量不应超过42×108t标煤,特别要抑制煤炭生产量和消费量的快速增长。同时今后10年经济增长速度最好保持在7%～8%之间。改变经济增长模式的重点在于转变发展方式,要由生产型大国向消费型大国转型、由投资主导型转向消费主导型,到2020年第三产业的比重应达到50%左右。要加大节能力度,提高能源利用效率,"十二五"和"十三五"期间,单位GDP能耗应分别下降20%。另外,应积极发展各种非化石能源,深化能源体制改革,进一步加强国际合作。     

出口结构调整对我国能源需求的影响

出口是推动我国经济发展、带动能源需求快速增长的重要因素。为实现2020年全面小康社会发展目标,确保能源清洁、安全、可持续供应,实现对外承诺减排目标,必须持续大幅度降低单位GDP能耗,合理控制能源消费总量。调整和优化出口结构,降低出口的直接和间接能源消耗,是实现上述目标的重要途径。本文从转变发展方式、破解资源环境约束、提高出口的质量和效益等角度,分析了调整出口结构的必要性。利用投入产出和情景分析方法,对我国出口带来的直接和间接能源消费进行核算,并分析了调整和优化出口结构对我国未来一次能源需求的影响。建议调整"出口导向"的发展战略,减少高载能产品、低附加值机电和轻纺产品出口,加大服务贸易出口,促进对外贸易进一步转型升级。     

固定资产投资项目年综合能源消费量核算及注意事项

“十四五”以来，随着“双碳”相关文件的陆续发布以及“两高”项目管控力度加强，固定资产投资项目节能审查制度成为各级部门加强能源消费“双控”、优化产业投资结构、提升能源利用效率的重要抓手。年综合能源消费量作为衡量项目能源消费情况的直接指标，是项目节能审查环节重点关注的指标，也是判断项目对地方能源消费总量控制的重要参考。从计算边界、方法和口径等方面，总结项目年综合能源消费量核算的相关注意事项，并提出相关建议，以期更好地推进节能报告编制工作。     

优化产品结构,挖掘结构节能潜力

一、结构节能取决于合理的产品结构 结构节能之本质内容应该是:在有限能源供给条件下,谋求高能耗产品与低能耗产品协调发展中的积极平衡,使有限的能源发挥最大的效益。结构节能不是一味强调限制重工业(尤其高能耗的原材料工业)产品的发展,结构节能取决于合理的产品结构。 建立合理的产品结构,要“因地制宜”。在缺能地区,更多地发展能耗低、技术和智能密集的行业,从比例上而不是从绝对量上降低高能耗工业地位,无疑是正确的。本文以耗能大户为例,分析结构节能。 二、结构节能实际意义分析 工业部门能源消费约占全社会消费70％,是节能重点部门,也是分析产品结构节能的重点方向。 1、福建省电力工业内部结构节能情况 分析表一 1991年主要火电厂概况     

不同碳达峰时点选择下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响——以广东省为例

中国提出2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标将对全社会经济发展、能源消费带来深刻的变革。通过构建广东省气候-经济-环境-健康综合评估模型（ICEEH-GD）,设计了如期达峰（2030年达峰）和率先达峰（2025年达峰）两个情景,研究不同碳达峰时点下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响。结果表明,率先达峰情景促进全社会投资从电力、水泥、油品开采、焦炭、钢铁等低增加值高碳排放部门转向服务业、电子信息、机械制造、建筑业、化工业等高增加值低碳排放部门,投资量总计转移了819亿元,带动相关部门的增加值增长135亿元。率先达峰情景强化对电力、水泥、钢铁、陶瓷等高碳排放行业的限制,在2030年全社会就业岗位比如期达峰情景增加82 000人,但全省国内生产总值（GDP）比如期达峰情景减少424亿元,占届时全省GDP总量的0.242%。到2030年,率先达峰情景比如期达峰情景降低CO₂排放7 610万t和节约能源消费2 535万t标准煤,其中碳减排和节能贡献部门主要来自电力、水泥、钢铁、石油开采、陶瓷行业,分别占全社会碳减排量和节能量的65.0%和74.3%。从投资与增加值、就业、碳排放的关系来看,建议大力发展电子信息、机械制造业这些单位投资增加值高、就业较高且单位投资碳排放较低的部门;鼓励对电力、水泥、钢铁、陶瓷单位投资增加值较低且单位投资碳排放较高的部门进行绿色化改造和行业提质增效。     

The impact of household behavioral changes on GHG emission reduction in Lithuania

It is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap GHG emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20% of total energy consumption in developed countries. In addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in GHG emission reduction.The aim of the paper is to assess GHG emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption. The review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on GHG emission reduction was performed; the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in Lithuania for two scenarios – baseline and GHG emission reduction scenario including energy saving. GHG emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients. Evaluated GHG emission reduction potential in households was compared with GHG emission reduction potentials in other sectors of Lithuania. Based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed.     

Impact on power planning due to demand-side management (DSM) in commercial and government sectors with rebound effect—A case study of central grid of Oman

This paper presents the results of a study that estimated the DSM energy saving and load management potential in commercial and government/institutional sectors in Oman (central grid area) and evaluated its impact on generation capacity and energy savings. The end-use (lighting and air-conditioning) energy consumption data have been collected in two major segments of the commercial sector for simplicity and to save time and money. Another unique aspect of the study is the inclusion of the energy savings, in transmission and distribution (T&D) losses that are estimated by using generation expansion planning approach. The study has found that DSM is financially beneficial from customers’ point of view as the discounted payback period of investment in efficient lighting and air-conditioning is between 4 and 12 years of the surveyed sample. From the utility point of view the capacity saving at the horizon year is between 372 and 596 MW and the overall energy saving for the whole planning horizon is about 29–44 TWh. The total avoided cost in generation and capacity saving is somewhere between 416 and 597 million dollars.     

夏热冬暖地区办公建筑能耗模拟与分析

夏热冬暖地区是我国经济和建筑产业最发达的地区之一,也是建筑能耗最多的地区之一。分析和研究夏热冬暖地区建筑能耗的特点对建筑节能有重要的意义。本文用eQUEST建筑能耗模拟软件模拟了夏热冬暖气候下不同的建筑围护结构的能耗性能,并与实际调查结果进行了比较。结论表明:办公类建筑中的空调是最大的能耗终端,全年的能耗以办公设备和照明的能耗最稳定。有外保温措施和同时具有内、外保温措施最大区别在于节省空调电力消耗31.3%和39.1%。说明建筑外墙保温系统是建筑节能的重要手段。     

Can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in China? A time series investigation

This study assesses the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between foreign direct investment (FDI) and energy consumption in China. Applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012, we find that a stable FDI–energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1% increase in FDI reduces energy consumption by 0.21%. However, this study shows a positive association between FDI and energy consumption in the short run, attributing to the dominance of the scale effect. Our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators. It is suggested that the Chinese government shall support the inward FDI in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize FDI-related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation.     

Linking historic developments and future scenarios of industrial energy use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040

Monitoring energy efficiency improvements is essential for policy evaluation and for future policy making. We estimate the annual energy efficiency improvements achieved in six Dutch industry sectors between 1993 and 2008 by using a bottom-up model. This model incorporates the production data and specific energy consumption values of 122 products. We estimate annual energy efficiency improvements of 1.0 % per annum (p.a.) for the total industry (excluding non-energy use); even though the results are subject to uncertainties due to errors in the energy statistics, we consider them as strong indication that Dutch industry needs to reinforce its efforts in energy efficiency. Based on historical achievements between 1989 and 2008, Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios project annual improvement potentials of 0.6–1.8 % p.a. until 2040. Based on literature review, this study estimates that implementing energy saving technologies can accelerate energy efficiency improvements to 2 % p.a. and beyond. Efficient combined heat and power technologies could increase these potentials further. These are beyond the historical achievements and BaU scenario projections. New policies will be required for technology development which ensures continuous energy efficiency improvements. The findings of this paper need to be extended by continuous monitoring and more scenario analyses with improved data.     

Energy efficiency trends and policy in Slovenia

The energy dependency of Slovenia is high (52.1%), but it is a little lower than the average energy dependency in the EU 27 (53.8%). Slovenia imports all its petroleum products and natural gas and partly coal and electricity. The energy intensity of Slovenia is higher by about 50% than the average in the EU 27. The target of the EU Directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services adopted in 2006 is to achieve a 9% improvement of EE (energy efficiency) within the period 2008-2016. The new target of the EU climate and energy package “20-20-20 plan” is a 20% increase in EE by 2020. Since 1991 the Slovenian government has been supporting energy efficiency activities. The improvement of EE was one of the targets of strategic energy documents ReSROE (Resolution on the Strategy of Use and Supply of Energy in Slovenia from 1996 and ReNEP (Resolution on the National Energy Programme) from 2004 adopted by the Slovenian National Assembly (Parliament) in previous years. The Energy Act adopted in 1999 defines the objective of energy policy as giving priority to EE and utilization of renewable energy sources. The goals of the “National Energy Action Plan 2008-2016 (NEEAP)” adopted by the Slovenian government in 2008 include a set of energy efficiency improvement instruments in the residential, industrial, transport and tertiary sectors. The target of the NEEAP is to save final energy in the 2008-2016 period, amounting to at least 4261 GWh or 9% of baseline consumption. The indicators of energy efficiency trends show considerable improvement in the period from 1998 to 2007. The improvement of EE was reached in all sectors: manufacturing, transport and households. The paper analyses the structure, trends of energy consumption and energy efficiency indicators by sectors of economic activity. A review of energy efficiency policy and measures is described in the paper.     

“十一五”后三年山西省节能降耗面临的问题与对策分析

山西省是我国几个能耗较高省份之一,同时也是"十一五"时期规定节能任务较重省份之一。对于以高耗能产业占比重较大的山西,能否在规定期限完成规定节能任务,是一个严峻的课题。本文分析了山西产业结构与高耗能的相互关系,提出了完成节能任务的几点对策。     

“十一五”我国节能降耗的重点和对策

国家"十一五"规划纲要明确提出到"十一五"期末要实现单位GDP能耗下降20%的目标,我国政府对节能工作高度重视,目前已经出台了一系列的相关法律和政策,必将进一步推动我国的节能工作。我国能源消费和供应结构都是以煤为主,单位GDP能耗较高,而且能源资源价格还有待于进一步完善。"十一五"期间,要坚持节能与开源并举,节能优先的基本方针,大力提高能源利用效率,积极优化产业结构,大力发展清洁新能源,加大节能先进适用技术的研发。为此,要进一步修改完善相关法律法规、完善能源价格形成机制、加大节能研发和国际合作、建立能耗统计、监测和评估体系,以保障"十一五"节能目标的实现。