黄腹角雉人工种群生存力初步分析

黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)为我国特有珍稀雉类。目前,其野生种群仅分布于湖南东南部、浙江南部和西南部、江西、福建、广东北部和广西东北部,估计数量约为4000只。湖南省雉类繁殖基地自1997年通过对执法检查中获得的黄腹角雉个体进行收容、救护以及驯养繁殖工作以来,该人工种群已经成功繁殖4年,至2004年年底种群数量为131只。本文利用8年的驯养繁殖过程中获得的种群生态学参数,借助漩涡模型(Vortex9.51)对该种群100年内的动态进行了模拟。结果显示,按照过去8年的生存情况,该种群在100年灭绝的概率为97%。成年雌性的高死亡率和频繁的灾害是影响种群长期存活的两个关键因素。如果成年雌性的死亡率降低到饲养后3年(2002—2004年)时的水平,种群的灭绝概率降低至5%,如果同时控制灾害的发生,其灭绝概率降至0。增加环境容纳量没有降低种群的灭绝概率和增加其增长速度,但增加环境容纳量对100年后的种群数量和基因杂合度有明显的影响。在降低成年雌性死亡率和杜绝灾害发生的情况下,可以考虑对种群进行收获(用作向野外放养),每次收获的数量应该控制在5只成年雄性和5只成年雌,开始收获时间为种群连续繁殖10年以后。降低成年雌性的死亡率、杜绝食物中毒和火灾等灾害的发生以及增加环境容纳量是该人工饲养种群长期存活和发展壮大的重要管理手段。     

黄腹角雉人工种群生存力初步分析

黄腹角雉（Tragopan caboti）为我国特有珍稀雉类。目前，其野生种群仅分布于湖南东南部、浙江南部和西南部、江西、福建、广东北部和广西东北部，估计数量约为4000只。湖南省雉类繁殖基地自1997年通过对执法检查中获得的黄腹角雉个体进行收容、救护以及驯养繁殖工作以来，该人工种群已经成功繁殖4年，至2004年年底种群数量为131只。本文利用8年的驯养繁殖过程中获得的种群生态学参数，借助漩涡模型（Vortex9.51）对该种群100年内的动态进行了模拟。结果显示，按照过去8年的生存情况，该种群在100年灭绝的概率为97%。成年雌性的高死亡率和频繁的灾害是影响种群长期存活的两个关键因素。如果成年雌性的死亡率降低到饲养后3年（2002—2004年）时的水平，种群的灭绝概率降低至5%，如果同时控制灾害的发生，其灭绝概率降至0。增加环境容纳量没有降低种群的灭绝概率和增加其增长速度，但增加环境容纳量对100年后的种群数量和基因杂合度有明显的影响。在降低成年雌性死亡率和杜绝灾害发生的情况下，可以考虑对种群进行收获（用作向野外放养），每次收获的数量应该控制在5只成年雄性和5只成年雌，开始收获时间为种群连续繁殖10年以后。降低成年雌性的死亡率、杜绝食物中毒和火灾等灾害的发生以及增加环境容纳量是该人工饲养种群长期存活和发展壮大的重要管理手段。     

鄱阳湖区獐种群生存力分析

鄱阳湖区的獐种群是一个孤立的种群,近年来其数量急剧减少。本研究应用种群生存力分析的原理和方法,利用漩涡模型预测了鄱阳湖区獐种群在未来100 a内的种群变动趋势,并分析了不同场景下獐种群的变化趋势。结果表明:鄱阳湖区獐种群在未来100 a灭绝的概率是0.37。如果鄱阳湖区獐的栖息地进一步被破坏,獐种群的灭绝概率将大幅度增加;高概率的幼仔死亡率会使獐种群在未来100 a出现灭绝的概率为100%;灾害对种群的影响也很大,在洪灾和狩猎的双重作用下,洪灾发生频率增加将使獐种群灭绝概率增大。通过本次对鄱阳湖区獐的种群生存力分析,发现幼仔的死亡率和栖息地的破碎化是鄱阳湖区獐种群的重要制约因素,建议在獐栖息地之间设立生态走廊,加大对偷猎的打击力度,将有利于该地区獐种群的长期发展。     

秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群生存力分析

小种群的保护已成为保护生物学中一个重要的问题,鉴于小种群极易灭绝的特性,寻找制约小种群存活的关键因子,形成快速拯救的措施,是目前对于小种群进行保护十分迫切的任务。根据秦岭大坪峪地区2个川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群连续5a的观察数据,参照群体大小、配偶体制、迁移扩散、环境容纳量、死亡率、灾害的发生频率等种群参数,并结合川金丝猴其他种群的研究结果,利用旋涡模型(Vortex 10.0),对猴群未来100a内的数量动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明,在没有个体迁移的情况下,大坪峪种群种群100a间灭绝概率为95.8%和93%;当存在个体迁移和扩散的情况,灭绝概率为2%和0.4%。因此种群间个体迁移是秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴种群数量动态的限制因子。鉴于此,增加川金丝猴大坪峪种群间的个体交流,能够保证本群川金丝猴长期生存所需的遗传多样性。同时,增加秦岭川金丝猴各种群间的个体交流,建立群间的生境走廊对这一世界性濒危物种的长期存活具有重要的现实意义。     

漩涡模型及其在白鱀豚种群管理中的应用

漩涡模型作为一种用于野生动物种群生存力分析的计算机模拟工具,已在濒危物种的保护和管理方面得到了广泛的应用。本文介绍了漩涡模型的产生和特征,同时使用这一模型完成了长江中白鱀豚（Lipotes vexillifer）种群生存力分析。模拟的结果表明,在未来 100年内,白鱀豚在高、中死亡率的条件下,种群灭绝概率分别为1．0和0．5左右。但是,在死亡率低和极低的条件下,白鱀豚的灭绝过程可能持续100年以上,或永远也不会灭绝。开始种群大小对白鱀豚的平均灭绝时间有一定的影响,但对种群生长率（r）却没有影响。在高、中、和低死亡率条件下,白鱀豚种群生长率分别为－0．07、－0．04和－0．02。     

湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析

种群生存力分析是通过对种群统计随机性、环境随机性、自然灾害、生境的空间结构以及各种管理措施等因素分析、估计濒危物种种群大小和灭绝风险的方法。洞庭湖麋鹿是一个完全自然野化的野生种群,受洪灾制约,面临着岛屿化和近交衰退的威胁,因此,通过种群监测和生存力分析制定科学有效的保护行动计划十分必要。本研究结果显示,目前湖南洞庭湖分布有3个麋鹿亚群,种群数量为210头左右。根据种群2006—2020年监测数据,参照种群现状、配偶体制、自然灾害、环境容纳量和死亡率等种群参数,利用VORTEX模型(10.5. 5.0)对麋鹿种群100年内的数量动态进行模拟分析,结果表明：在理想状态和环境容纳量为1 000头的情形下,种群在100年间灭绝概率为0,内禀增长率r为0.0991±0.0800,周限增长率λ为1.1041±1.1900,净增长率R0为2.006 2,雌性平均世代更替时间T为7.03年,雄性平均世代更替时间T为8.65年;随着时间推移,近交系数增加8.08%,种群基因期望杂合度和观察杂合度分别下降6.57%和8.30%;敏感度分析发现,洪水灾害是影响洞庭湖麋鹿种群增长的主要因子,并导致生育率下降和...     

漩涡模型及其在白暨豚种群管理中的应用

漩涡模型作为一种用于野生动物种群生存力分析的计算机模拟工具,已在濒危物种的保护和管理方面得到了广泛的应用。本文介绍了漩涡模型的产生和特征,同时使用这一模型完成了长江中白暨豚（Ｌｉｐｏｔｅｓｖｅｘｉｌｌｉｆｅｒ）种群生存力分析。模拟的结果表明,在未来１００年内,白暨豚在高、中死亡率的条件下,种群灭绝概率分别为１．０和０．５左右。但是,在死亡率低和极低的条件下,白暨豚的灭绝过程可能持续１００年以上,或永远也不会灭绝。开始种群大小对白暨豚的平均灭绝时间有一定的影响,但对种群生长率（ｒ）却没有影响。在高、中、和低死亡率条件下,白暨豚种群生长率分别为－０．０７、－０．０４和－０．０２。     

种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其 具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

唐家河大熊猫种群生存力分析

唐家河大熊猫是一个包括3个亚种群的异质种群,借助于游涡模型（vortex 8.21),对唐家河大熊猫未来100a内的种群动态动物了模拟,并分析了不同因子对该种群命运的影响,结果表明,在不考虑近亲繁殖,灾害等因素的情况下,该种群100a内在总体上保持稳定,并略有增长,但种群基因杂合率下降,累积绝灭率增加,尤以薄衣沟亚种群为最,提高环境容纳量,补充外来个体等措施能在不同程度上有利于该种群的长期存活,而近亲繁殖,灾害等因素则大大加速了种群的灭绝步伐,另外,成功的迁移扩散有利于异质种群的稳定与发展,否则对数量稀少的大熊猫种群有害无益,最后提出了针对性的保护与管理建议。     

无量山大寨子黑长臂猿（Nomascus concolor fingdongensis）种群生存力

据2003年9月至2005年9月,对云南中部无量山大寨子黑长臂猿种群（5个群体）进行了观察,获得了群体大小、配偶体制、繁殖间隔、环境容纳量、死亡率、灾害的发生频率等种群参数,并结合近缘种的一些相关数据,利用旋涡模型（Vortex 914）,对无量山大寨子地区黑长臂猿亚种群的动态进行了模拟分析。结果显示：大寨子亚种群是一个具有很强的潜在繁殖力的种群,如果没有偷猎,亚种群在100a之内不会灭绝,并且能迅速达到环境容纳量。但是每年如果有1只成年雄性和1只成年雌性被猎杀,该种群将会在第78年灭绝,且灭绝概率为100％。不同程度的死亡率对种群影响不大,但高死亡率显著延缓了种群到达环境容纳量的时间。环境容纳量对种群遗传多样性损失具有重要的影响,在没有猎杀的情况下,种群的长期存活需要一个较大的环境容纳量。因此,在黑长臂猿受到严格保护、且栖息地主要在保护区内的今天,严密监控火灾的发生,限制牲畜进入林区等人为干扰的影响,保护好黑长臂猿栖息地是首要工作之一。但如果能使其栖息地周围的森林植被得到恢复,增加其栖息范围,将有利于该地区黑长臂猿的发展。     

Reintroducing capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) into southern Scotland: identification of minimum viable populations at potential release sites

Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) populations are declining in western parts of their range, including Scotland. It has been proposed that their numbers, and the extent of their range in Scotland be increased to reduce the risk of a second extinction in the UK. The feasibility of a reintroduction of capercaillie to coniferous plantations in southern Scotland was assessed by undertaking a population viability analysis. Following a review of capercaillie ecology and habitat requirements, VORTEX population simulation software was used to identify a minimum viable population (MVP). From this the minimum dynamic area of suitable habitat required in order to support such a MVP was then calculated. It was estimated that a minimum of 60 individuals would be required in approximately 5000ha of habitat in order for the population to have a >0.95 probability of surviving for 50 years. Supplementation of populations with two unrelated individuals every five years reduced the MVP to ten individuals. Further simulations were run in order to establish the sensitivity of the model to changes in three key parameters. Assessment of areas of suitable habitat identified two potential release sites, Wauchope and Newcastleton forests, in southern Scotland. Some practical considerations relating to management of a release population are outlined. It was concluded that an appropriately planned and resourced reintroduction was feasible.     

Evaluation of Minimum Viable Population Size and Conservation Status of the Long-furred Woolly Mouse Opossum Micoureus paraguayanus: An Endemic Marsupial of the Atlantic Forest

A population viability analysis (PVA) using the computer package VORTEX was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest endemic marsupial Micoureus paraguayanus. The objectives were: to estimate demographic and genetic MVPs that could be used as quasi-extinction thresholds for future modeling, to estimate the minimum area of suitable habitat (MASH), and to use these results to apply IUCN red list criteria so as to suggest its proper status classification. The model predicted that populations of 100 and 2000 individuals were necessary to achieve demographic and genetic stability, respectively, within a time frame of 100 years. The model was sensitive to changes in inbreeding depression, mortality and reproduction. MASH estimated to contain genetically viable populations reached 1300 ha. Fortunately, there still are quite a number of forest remnants equal to or larger than this. Isolation is suggested as the principal threat facing M. paraguayanus. Therefore, promoting conditions for dispersal together with efforts dealing with translocation, should prove to be the most appropriate management strategies for M. paraguayanus at this stage. A landscape pattern composed of large patches holding MVPs and sets of smaller patches harboring viable metapopulations that maximize probability of dispersal can provide a viable scenario for the conservation of M. paraguayanus.     

佛坪大熊猫种群生存力分析的初步报告

应用种群生存力分析的一些原理和方法,借助旋涡模型,对佛坪大熊猫在未来１００年的种动态进行了预测,并对其长期存活状况以及它在环境波动、迁移扩散状太民的变化、杠息地变化和不同灾变条件下的种群动态进行了模拟。结果显示：佛坪大熊猫的种群数量在１００年内大体稳定,略有下降的趋势。     

马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群生存力模拟分析

采用漩涡模型Vortex mondel 713 , 模拟了马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群在未来100年内的变动趋势。结果显示: 在无交配限制、无密度制约、无近亲交配衰退等条件下, 马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群数量呈下降趋势; 在考虑近交衰退的影响后, 遗传多样性水平降低, 灭绝率提高; 竹子开花虽能加速大熊猫种群的绝灭, 但由于保护区分布有多个竹种,因此并不会对大熊猫种群产生灾难性影响; 但是人为捕杀可迅速减少大熊猫种群数量, 加速其灭绝过程。因此, 对该保护区大熊猫进行保护的最重要措施就是严格控制人为捕杀, 并保护栖息地及走廊带。     

Population viability analysis of New Zealand sea lions, Auckland Islands, New Zealand’s sub-Antarctics: assessing relative impacts and uncertainty

A common issue faced in wildlife management is how to assess the uncertainty of potential impacts on the viability of a species or population. The pup production of New Zealand (NZ) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) has declined 50% in the last 12?years at their main breeding area, the Auckland Islands. The two major known atypical impacts on NZ sea lions are as follows: (1) the direct mortality as bycatch of trawling and (2) bacterial epizootics, which can affect reproduction and mortality. Both of these impacts include high levels of uncertainty, with fisheries data being variable due to percentage observer coverage and the effect of sea lion exclusion devises, while the timing and severity of bacterial epizootics are not predictable. In this paper, an age-structured model of the NZ sea lion population at the Auckland Islands was built to examine the predicted effects of fisheries mortality and catastrophes (bacterial epizootics), both separately and then combined, on population viability over a 100-year period using the VORTEX population viability analysis programme. These models are then compared against 15?years of empirical field data to determine the actual level of impacts being observed. Model results indicate that although naturally occurring epizootics reduce the growth rate of the population, it does not cause a decline in the Auckland Island population. However, sustained fisheries bycatch at current estimated levels, particularly considering its potential impact on adult female survival, could result in a population decline and possible functional extinction over the modelled time period.     

Estimating Minimum Area of Suitable Habitat and Viable Population Size for the Northern Muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus)

A population viability analysis (PVA) using the computer package VORTEX was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest endemic primate Brachyteles hypoxanthus. The objectives were: (1) to estimate demographic and genetic MVPs that could be used as quasi-extinction thresholds for future modeling, and (2) to estimate the minimum area of suitable habitat (MASH). The model predicted that populations of 40 and 700 individuals were necessary to achieve demographic and genetic stability, respectively. The model was more sensitive to changes in inbreeding depression, sex ratio and reproduction (percentage of breeding females). MASH estimated to contain genetically viable populations reached 11,570 ha. Muriquis have managed to persist despite severe habitat disturbance, but the results suggest that although most of the extant populations are not threatened by extinction, they are too small to be genetically viable in the long-run, and will loose most of their heterozygosity.     

Estimating the rate of increase for the finless porpoise with special attention to predictions for the Inland Sea population in Japan

The finless porpoise Neophocaena asiaeorientalis inhabits coastal waters and rivers in East Asia and is exposed to various human activities. This species is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to a reduction in abundance. Although human-induced mortality can be a threat to porpoise populations, future anthropogenic impacts have not been quantitatively evaluated due to lack of demographic information. Adequate future population projections are needed to form the basis for conservation measures before the population declines to critical levels. We conducted a population viability analysis for the population of finless porpoise in the Inland Sea, Japan using a Leslie matrix model composed of age-specific survival and fertility rates. We described the uncertainty in the annual rate of increase (λ) for the finless porpoise using randomly sampled estimates of survival rate for other cetaceans with similar life histories. Plausible median estimates of λ ranged from 1.041 (age at first reproduction [AFR] = 7) to 1.056 (AFR = 5). Future population changes and extinction probabilities were predicted after combining these estimates with a predicted human-induced mortality rate (M) and available abundance estimates. The extinction probability after 100 years was 0 %. However, the probability of the quasi-extinction (<100 individuals) was as high as 79.0 % after 100 years. The results also suggest that the persistence of the finless porpoise population could be achieved with a small effort to reduce anthropogenic mortality.     

朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析

到目前为止,只有一个野生朱鹮群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自1981年重新发现以来,一直在20只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱鹮14年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱鹮的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去10余年的生存状况,朱鹮在50年内绝灭的可能性是98.5%,平均绝灭时间为15.72 年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱鹮种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱鹮的生活质量。     

朱■（Nipponianippon）种群生存力分析

到目前为止,只有一个野生朱群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自１９８１年重新发现以来,一直在２０只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱１４年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去１０余年的生存状况,朱在５０年内绝灭的可能性是９８．５％,平均绝灭时间为１５．７２年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱的生活质量