基于等维动态马尔科夫SCGM(1,1)C模型的黄金价格预测

为了提高黄金价格预测精度,提出等维动态马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)C预测模型,引入取新去旧的数据处理方法,使用等维动态实现数据优化。等维动态马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)C预测模型是将等维动态SCGM(1,1)C模型与马尔可夫链结合起来,在等维动态SCGM(1,1)C模型的预测结果上再进行状态划分与转移,重新得到预测值。选取2018年1月～2019年4月共16组黄金价格数据,将动态等维的维数定为13,数据处理时选用2018年1月～2019年1月的13个黄金价格数据,预测2019年2月的黄金价格,再依次预测2019年3月和4月的黄金价格。以2019年2～4月的3个黄金价格预测数据作为拟合,预测2019年5月的黄金价格。通过比较灰色SCGM(1,1)C预测模型、等维动态SCGM(1,1)C模型与等维动态马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)C预测模型的精度,可知等维动态SCGM(1,1)C预测模型的精度较SCGM(1,1)C模型有所提高,等维动态马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)C模型的拟合精度最高,达到一级,相对误差平均值为0.85%,符合预测要求,应用该模型预测的2019年5月的黄金价格为1 314.78美元/盎司,实际黄金价格为1 295.55美元/盎司,价格较为接近。     

济钢智能自动化维检系统的建立与应用

针对大型钢铁企业在自动化维检方面降低维检成本、保障设备稳定运行、减少维检人员的需求,通过分析自动化维检工作内容,提出并实施了济南钢铁股份有限公司智能自动化维检系统.系统在控制层数据安全无扰采集的基础上,实现了基于Web的智能化维检,在满足企业需求的同时,搭建了一个良好的管理平台,提升了企业的维检管理水平,并为扁平化管理提供了条件.该系统已在济钢部分生产线投入运行,效果良好.     

试论大型工程项目的管理战略(续)

三、必须从战略上采用当代的先进技术 为发展社会生产力、提高国家经济实力,采用高起点、高水平的当代先进科学技术,是大型工程项目的另一重要管理战略。 当前世界正处在高、新技术大发展的时代。各国的竞争,很重要的一点是表现在综合国力和经济实力的竞争上,其核心则是科学技术实力的竞争。我国的大型工程项目,都是现代化建设中的骨干和主力,必须体现当代技术革命的时代面貌,而不能采用中间技术或落后技术。     

中小企业建立技术联盟的博弈分析

通过构建完全信息动态博弈模型,利用讨价还价解的方法对模型进行求解,分析中小企业组建技术联盟的决策选择问题.认为技术联盟是自主创新的严格占优策略;而在技术联盟具体模式选择上,则要综合考虑合作方的创新能力、合作创新成功概率以及自身的发展战略等因素.     

大型工程项目中的活系统

大型工程项目是个规模庞大、结构繁杂、技术先进、投资巨大、因素众多、时空深广、目标多元、地位重要的大系统。准确认识我国新时期大型工程项目的特点,加强对大型工程项目管理理论与方法的研究,不断提高大型工程项目管理水平,对于搞好大型工程项目的建设,推动我国社会主义现代化的进程,具有十分重要的意义。本文仅就大型工程项目的基本结构,重点对其中的活系统谈一点看法。     

二维层次协调规划模型在钢铁企业铁焦烧系统中的应用

对大系统理论及层次规划进行了论述,构造了二维层次规划模型并提出了求解此模型的算法。在此基础上,以国内一家大型钢铁公司为模型厂建立了铁焦烧系统二维层次协调优化用能模型,并对实际生产进行了计算机求解。结果证明,模型和算法有较好的计算性和实用性,对钢铁企业综合节能具有很大的实际意义。     

四大钢铁战略联盟列入国家试点名单

正在科技部近日发布的《2013年度产业技术创新战略联盟拟试点和重点培育公示名单》中,攀钢集团的钒钛资源综合利用产业技术创新战略联盟、宝钢集团的装配式钢结构民用建筑产业技术创新战略联盟、永兴特种不锈钢股份的不锈钢长材产业技术创新战略联盟、钢铁研究总院的粉末冶金产业技术创新战略联盟均榜上有名。据介绍,钒钛战略联盟旨在更快地突破钒钛资源综合利用的关键核心技术,为未来钒钛产业科学发展提     

钒钛战略联盟获“活跃度高”评价

<正>钒钛资源综合利用产业技术创新战略联盟为2013年国家科技部批准的第三批国家试点联盟之一。近日中国产业技术创新战略联盟联络组发布"2014年度产业技术创新战略联盟活跃度评价报告",钒钛战略联盟获得活跃度高评价,全国进入该评价等级的联盟36家。     

一种二维转台的中框架有限元分析

中框架是转台的核心部件,其设计的合理性将直接影响转台的回转精度和动态指标.本文针对二维转台的中框架的结构设计,在结构分析的数学理论基础上,通过运用有限元软件ANSYS对该中框架在实际工控下进行了静动态特性分析,最终结果表明中框架设计合理、能够满足要求.     

跨国战略联盟与我国钢铁业的发展

本文首先介绍了跨国战略联盟的定义及其特征,分析了跨国战略联盟发展的新态势,并在此基础上提出了我国钢铁企业发展跨国战略联盟的可能性和必要性,最后给出了我国钢铁企业发展战略联盟的几点建议.     

Relation of patient pretreatment characteristics to the therapeutic alliance in diverse psychotherapies.

The prediction of the therapeutic alliance from patient pretreatment characteristics was investigated with a sample of elderly depressed outpatients treated in behavioral, cognitive, and brief dynamic psychotherapy (N?=?60). For the sample as a whole, a higher degree of patient defensiveness was related to a lower patient contribution to the alliance as reflected in patient commitment and working capacity. Also, the availability of environmental support was positively associated with greater patient commitment across treatment conditions. The association of patient pretreatment characteristics with alliance was similar across behavioral and cognitive therapy and less similar across brief dynamic and behavioral or cognitive therapy. The nature of the therapeutic alliance in diverse treatment modalities is discussed, and implications for selection criteria and technical strategies for engaging the difficult patient are explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Patient's and therapist's views of early alliance building in dynamic psychotherapy: Patterns and relation to outcome.

Patients and therapists have somewhat divergent perspectives of alliance. Usually in psychotherapy research, the focus is on the patient's view of alliance, predicting parts of outcome. This study questions this hypothesis by applying the shape-of-change procedure to patient's and therapist's view of alliance-building processes in dynamic psychotherapy. The results of this naturalistic study indicate that none of the 3 patient patterns is related to outcome at the end of psychotherapy, but a specific therapist's pattern--out of 2--is linked to positive symptom change. These results are discussed in the context of present research on therapeutic alliance, especially in terms of level and process, its measurement, and potential in predicting outcome in dynamic psychotherapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Alliance predicts patients' outcome beyond in-treatment change in symptoms.

The authors examined the relations among therapeutic alliance, outcome, and early-in-treatment symptomatic improvement in a group of 86 patients with generalized anxiety disorders, chronic depression, or avoidant or obsessive–compulsive personality disorder who received supportive–expressive dynamic psychotherapy. Although alliance at Sessions 5 and 10, but not at Session 2, was associated with prior change in depression, alliance at all sessions significantly predicted subsequent change in depression when prior change in depression was partialed out. The results are discussed in terms of the causal role of the alliance in therapeutic outcome. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

全球控轧控冷技术专利分析

对2013年前申请的控轧控冷技术领域全球专利文献进行分析研究,揭示了自该技术开发以来的技术进步、专利布局、发展演化、国内外发展状况、竞争对手之间的优势及差距等,以期为企业和科研机构建立研究发展方向、发掘竞争对手、建立战略联盟决策提供信息支持。     

Effects of transference work in the context of therapeutic alliance and quality of object relations.

Objective: Transference interpretation is considered as a core active ingredient in dynamic psychotherapy. In common clinical theory, it is maintained that more mature relationships, as well as a strong therapeutic alliance, may be prerequisites for successful transference work. In this study, the interaction between quality of object relations, transference interpretation, and alliance is estimated. Method: One hundred outpatients seeking psychotherapy for depression, anxiety, and personality disorders were randomly assigned to 1 year of weekly sessions of dynamic psychotherapy with transference interpretation or to the same type and duration of treatment, but without the use of transference interpretation. Quality of Object Relations (QOR)–lifelong pattern was evaluated before treatment (P. H?glend, 1994). The Working Alliance Inventory (A. O. Horvath & L. S. Greenberg, 1989; T. J. Tracey & A. M. Kokotovic, 1989) was rated in Session 7. The primary outcome variable was the Psychodynamic Functioning Scales (P. H?glend et al., 2000), measured at pretreatment, posttreatment, and 1 year after treatment termination. Results: A significant Treatment Group × Quality of Object Relations × Alliance interaction was present, indicating that alliance had a significantly different impact on effects of transference interpretation, depending on the level of QOR. The impact of transference interpretation on psychodynamic functioning was more positive within the context of a weak therapeutic alliance for patients with low quality of object relations. For patients with more mature object relations and high alliance, the authors observed a negative effect of transference work. Conclusion: The specific effects of transference work was influenced by the interaction of object relations and alliance, but in the direct opposite direction of what is generally maintained in mainstream clinical theory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

The accuracy of therapists' interpretations and the outcome of dynamic psychotherapy.

This study developed a measure of the accuracy of therapists' interpretations based on the core conflictual relationship theme method and examined the relation of accuracy to the outcome of dynamic psychotherapy. Accuracy was assessed on therapists' interpretations from two early-in-treatment sessions of 43 patients receiving moderate-length dynamic therapy. The results indicated that accuracy about the main wishes and responses from others that were expressed in the relationship themes was significantly related to outcome, even after the effects of general errors in treatment techniques and the quality of the helping alliance had been controlled for. Our hypothesis that accurate interpretations would have their greatest impact in the context of a positive helping alliance was not confirmed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

邯钢200 万t氧化球团的试生产

介绍了邯钢第1条200 万t/a链箅机—回转窑氧化球团生产线在试生产期间的原料条件和生产情况；分析了生产中遇到的难题；提出了调整设备和工艺的方法。经调整后，球团矿的绝大部分指标均达到国家标准，高炉在使用自产球团矿期间炉况顺行、焦比降低、产量增加。该生产线实现了投产后40天快速达产的目标。     

Training in cognitive, supportive-expressive, and drug counseling therapies for cocaine dependence.

This study assessed the effects of training on the performance of 65 therapists in delivering manual-guided therapies to 202 cocaine-dependent patients. Changes in ratings of therapists' adherence and competence was assessed in 3 treatment modalities: supportive-expressive dynamic therapy (SE), cognitive therapy (CT), and individual drug counseling. Effects of manual-guided training on the therapeutic alliance were also assessed. Training effects were examined through a hierarchical linear modeling approach that examined changes both within cases and across training cases. A large effect across cases was detected for training in CT. Supportive-expressive therapists and individual drug counselors demonstrated statistically significant learning trends over sessions but not over training cases. Training in SE and CT did not have a negative impact on the therapeutic alliance, although alliance scores for trainees in drug counseling initially decreased but then rebounded to initial levels. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An application of the concept of the therapeutic alliance to sadomasochistic pathology

This paper traces the history of the therapeutic alliance concept, examining how it has been used and misused, at times elevated to a central position and at others rejected altogether. The loss of this concept created a vacuum in classical psychoanalysis that has been filled by rival theories. The continuing usefulness of looking at the treatment process through the lens of the therapeutic alliance, particularly in relation to the manifold difficulties of working with sadomasochistic pathology, is suggested. To this end, revisions of the theory of the therapeutic alliance are suggested to address some of the difficulties that have arisen in conceptualizing this aspect of the therapeutic relationship, and to provide an integrated dynamic model for working with patients at each phase of treatment. This revised model acknowledges the complexity of the domain and encompasses the multiple tasks, functions, partners, and treatment phases involved. The utility of the revised theory is illustrated in application to understanding the sadomasochistic, omnipotent resistances of a female patient through the phases of her analysis.     

An initial look at the outcomes for dynamic play therapy.

Recent reviews of play therapy have identified that inclusion of parents in the intervention improves outcomes. This article presents an initial study of the changes in problem behavior when children and their families are provided dynamic play therapy. Dynamic play therapy is a family intervention developed by the author in which families are helped to develop collaborative play together using art, drama, movement, storytelling, and video making. Results suggest that child behavior does improve, that parents report the development of a positive therapeutic alliance with the therapist, and that this alliance is associated with outcome. This study used an action research approach and was conducted in an ongoing child guidance clinic. Discussion of the limits and merits of this approach is presented. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)