关于决策气象服务工作的经验和认识

气象事业的公益性特性决定了气象服务的“首位”方针。各级气象部门一贯坚持“在气象工作中,以气象服务为首位;在气象服务中,以公益性服务为首位;在公益性服务中,以决策服务为首位”的方针,确立了决策气象服务在气象工作中的重要地位。新疆气象部门经过近20年的决策气象服务工作的实践和不断创新,使决策服务成为了气象部门为新疆国民经济服务的品牌。根据作者在新疆长期从事气象决策服务工作的经验,总结出以下六条经验,与大家共同商榷。1抓大放小,突出重点决策气象服务是气象部门为各级党委、政府指挥生产,组织防灾减灾、资源开发利用和环境…     

公共气象服务的认识和思考

公共气象服务是指气象部门使用各种公共资源或公共权力,向政府决策部门、社会公众、生产部门提供气象信息和技术的过程。发展公共气象服务是中国气象局党组贯彻落实科学发展观、推进气象事业科学发展的战略性决策,是防御气象灾害、应对气候变化的迫切需要,是建设服务型政府的必然要求。做好公共气象服务是党和政府对气象部门的第一要求,     

抓住机遇 开拓进取 开创我省气象工作新局面

１９９８年全省气象部门认真贯彻落实党的十五大精神,深化改革,加大创收力度,加强气象现代化建设,努力提高精神文明建设水平,全力做好气象服务工作,各项工作都取得了较好的成绩,圆满地完成了全年的工作任务,为推动我省的经济发展作出了积极贡献。在１９９８年全国气象部门工作目标考核中我省被评为优秀达标单位。一（一）气象服务及时到位,效果显著１９９８年,我省西部地区遭受了历史罕见的特大洪水灾害。全省气象部门把为各级政府的决策气象服务放在首位,春季预报准确,服务到位;汛期气象决策服务重点突出,效果显著;人工增雨…     

农业气象示范园区在公共气象服务中的作用浅析

近年来,气象灾害频发,在社会主义新农村建设和农业发展的要求下,提高气象部门公共服务能力尤其是为农服务能力已成为气象部门工作的重点之一.该文分析了农业气象示范园区建设的必要性、系统组成及优势,以及其在公共气象服务中的作用,结果表明:农业气象示范园区作为现代集约型的农业示范窗口,是科技与服务的紧密结合,在新科技形式下,积极推进现代化气象农业科技示范园建设工作,对于推动气象为农服务进程,探索为农服务新模式,提高公共气象服务能力作用巨大.加强农业气象示范园区在气象为农服务中的应用,已成为新科技时代气象部门提高防灾减灾能力、更好更快地为地方经济社会发展服务的重要途径.     

2020年最强“龙舟水”天气的决策气象服务回顾

2020年广东省最强“龙舟水”具有暴雨持续时间长、范围广,面上累积雨量大,短历时降水强烈的特征,广东省气象部门通过决策气象服务为各级政府部署防灾减灾救灾提供了有力支持,有效降低了暴雨灾害损失。该次过程预报“报得早、报得准”,服务“够精细、够迅速”,通过精准把握决策气象服务节奏、提供针对需求的决策气象产品、充分利用气象预报服务现代化建设成果,切实发挥气象部门的“防灾减灾第一道防线”作用,是一次成功的决策气象服务案例,能够为今后类似过程提供参考。同时发现决策气象服务工作者思路需要进行转变、决策气象服务产品制作自动化水平有待提升、智能网格预报在决策服务中的应用有待加强、预报核心科技需进一步发展等不足之处,为进一步提升决策气象服务质量提供参考。     

提升广西气象部门公共气象服务能力的几点思考

通过对气象部门公共气象服务工作现状的分析,找出广西气象部门在公共气象服务中的不足,提出了六点应对的建议:一要强化气象灾害防御和应急管理能力,提升防灾减灾能力;二要强化决策气象服务能力,落实好重大信息报告党政主要负责人制度;三要强化"创新驱动",打好"智慧气象精准服务"牌;四要强化政府购买公共气象服务力度,保障气象事业稳定运行;五要强化人才体系建设,构建合理的公共气象服务人才队伍;六要统筹全省力量,发展具有市场竞争力的省级创新企业。     

监测预警平台的设计与实现

为提高集约化开发水平和应用维护水平,充分发挥省级气象部门的技术优势和设备优势,研究开发“市县局监测预警业务平台”。该平台包括实况监测、要素时序图、本站气候概况、预警信号和预警监控、常规站降水气候序列等主要功能。该平台可提高预报服务一体化的效率,提高各类探测资料和数值预报的应用能力,提高气象部门特别是市县气象局探索建立多灾种的监测预警机制,健全多气象资料应用途径,进一步完善决策服务支撑系统,提高气象要素重新分析、气象要素极端值监测分析等气象灾害分析能力。     

气象灾情直报系统应用技巧

气象灾情收集上报是确保气象部门及时了解天气过程的灾害情况、部署气象服务工作的重要措施。中国气象局于2004年起先后向全国气象部门下发和升级了灾情直报系统1.0、2.0、2.1、2.2和2.3软件,该软件利用计算机的NOTES、FTP和Email进行灾情直报、快报、月报、年报、预警信号、决策材料、应急事件等相关文件的上传,加大了各级气象部门灾情收集上报力度,使气象灾情收集上报和统计工作有了很大进展。但有不少基层台站应用直报软件时灾情上报速度较慢或出现错误,致使气象灾情"快"报不快,甚至预警信号发布延误。根据陕西省近年来应用灾情直报系统V2.3软件中的存在问题和使用经验,介绍其使用技巧,为各级台站做好气象灾情直报工作     

对美国灾害应急管理体系的考察与思考

在介绍美国自然灾害应急管理体系的基础上，结合江西实际，对美国灾害应急服务和应急管理工作进行了分析和研究，并借鉴其成功经验，提出了进一步建立和完善江西气象灾害应急体系的一些措施。研究结果认为，要建立完整高效的自然灾害应急体系，积极发挥气象部门在灾害应急工作中的作用；要大力加强突发性气象灾害监测预警服务，充分发挥气象灾害监测预警在自然灾害应急管理中的作用：要大力加强气象信息分发服务系统建设，加强与相关部门的合作，不断提高气象灾害预警信息分发服务能力；要大力强化气象灾害防御管理职能．积极推进气象灾害防御工作社会化。     

通辽市一次大暴雨过程决策气象服务分析与思考

文章分析了2017年8月2—4日通辽市罕见大暴雨过程决策气象服务特点及存在的不足,并提出思考建议:一是提高预报准确率和精细化水平;二是加强灾害评估工作,开展灾害预评估工作;三是建立完善的决策服务系统,从而提升决策气象服务水平,为政府防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

Kinetics of the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with aliphatic ethers studied under simulated atmospheric conditions: Temperature dependences of the rate coefficients

Rate coefficients have been measured for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with five aliphatic ethers over the temperature range 242–328 K. Competitive studies were carried out in an atmospheric flow reactor in which the hydroxyl radicals were generated by the photolysis of methyl nitrite in the presence of air containing nitric oxide. The reaction of OH with 2,3-dimethyl-butane was used as the reference reaction and the following Arrhenius parameters have been obtained for the reactions: OH+RORproducts:

Chemical characteristics of wet precipitation at an urban site of Guangzhou, South China

The pH variation and chemical characteristics of rainwater were investigated from January 2006 to December 2006 at an urban site of Guangzhou, South China. The rainwater was typically acidic with a volume-weighted mean pH value of 4.49, which ranged from 3.52 to 6.28. The volume-weighted mean equivalent concentration of components followed the order: SO₄²⁻ > Ca²⁺ > Cl⁻ > NH₄⁺ > Na⁺ > NO₃⁻ > K⁺ > Mg²⁺ > F⁻, indicating that SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻ and NO₃⁻ were the main anions, while Ca²⁺ and NH₄⁺, were the main cations. Ca²⁺ and NH₄⁺ were major neutralization constituents of the precipitation. Furthermore, correlation analysis and principal component analysis method were performed to identify possible common sources of major ions. Sources of the major ions were assessed based on enrichment factor method.     

A new criterion of relative homogeneity of climatological series

Summary When investigating, as a random sample, a series of differences between rather relatively homogeneous series of annual temperatures at two places, about 70 miles distant from one another it can be shown that the frequency distribution of the differences can be approximated by a normal distribution.Conversely, a normal distribution of the elements of the series of differences can be taken as a new criterion for the relative homogeneity of two series of average temperatures. This conclusion is verified by the agreement between other criteria for relative homogeneity and the new one.

---

Zusammenfassung Die Häufigkeitsverteilung der Differenzen zweier synchroner Reihen von Jahrestemperaturen wurde untersucht. Sie stammten von zwei zirka 110 km voneinander entfernten Orten in einem einheitlichen (kohärenten) Klimagebiet der Atlantischen Küste der Vereinigten Staaten. Die Häufigkeitsverteilung zeigt eine ausgesprochen negative Schiefe (Abb. 1). Kritische Durchsicht der Differenzenreihe, wie sieJ. v. Hann empfiehlt, zeigte außer einigen mehr oder minder vielleicht unbedeutenden Inhomogenitäten zwei Perioden, die durch scharfe (entgegengesetzte) Diskontinuitäten von der übrigen Reihe abgetrennt erschienen. Die aufgezeigten Sprünge ließen sich im nachhinein durch in der Stationsgeschichte angeführte Aufstellungsänderungen der Instrumente erklären. Die Ausschaltung dieser gestörten Perioden reduzierte die 100jährige auf eine 85jährige Differenzreihe. Die von der letzteren abgeleitete Häufigkeitsverteilung ließ sich in zureichender Weise (Abb. 2) durch eine Gaußsche Kurve approximieren.Die vom Autor zur Prüfung relativer Homogenität verwendeten Kriterien (Abbe, Helmert, Met. Z. S. 1925, p. 482) ergaben das Resultat: nichthomogen im Falle der 100jährigen, und annähernd homogen für die 85jährige Reihe. Dieses Resultat führte zu der Annahme, daß das Problem umkehrbar wäre: wenn die Differenzenreihe sich durch eine Gaußsche Kurve annähernd darstellen läßt, können die ursprünglichen Temperaturreihen als relativ homogen angesehen werden. Weitere mathematisch-statistische Untersuchungen in dieser Richtung wären zu begrüßen, besonders wenn auch Quotientenreihen (Niederschlag) einbezogen würden.

---

Résumé En étudiant une série de différences dérivées des séries plus ou moins relativement homogènes de températures annuelles à deux endroits l'un de l'autre à peu près 110 kms comme exemple de hasard, on peut démontrer que la distribution de la fréquence des différences peut être approximée par une distribution normale.Au contraire, une distribution normale des éléments des séries de différences pourrait être considérée comme un nouveau critérium de la homogénéité relative de deux séries de la température moyenne. Cette conclusion est vérifiée par l'accordance avec d'autres critériums.De plus, une continuation des études de ces problèmes au moyen de méthodes statistiques est désirable, en particulier, si l'on peut faire usage aussi de séries de quotients (précipitation).

     

Radiometrically determined skin temperature and scalar roughness to estimate surface heat flux. Part I: Parameterization of radiometric scalar roughness

A series of experiments carried out in a pasture field during a growing season, allowed a radiometric determination of the scalar roughness for sensible heatz _oh,r . The values ofz _oh,r are shown to vary over the range of 10^–1–10^–7m both diurnally and seasonally, and an existing theoretical model for the estimation of scalar roughness for sensible heat is found to be inappropriate for the precise estimation ofz _oh,r . To parameterizez _oh,r better, a multiple regression analysis was performed, with predictor candidates such as solar elevation, solar radiationR _s , leaf area index LAI, canopy height, the ratio of the solar radiation and the extraterrestrial radiationR _s /R _e , the ratio of the direct and the total solar radiationR _d /R _s , and the roughness Reynolds number among others. The best regression equation which usesR _s , LAI,R _s /R _e , andR _d /R _s is derived withr=0.75; with smaller numbers of predictors, values ofr tend to deteriorate gradually down tor=0.52 when only one predictor, LAI, was incorporated into the equation.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow and Pollutant Transports in and Above Two-Dimensional Idealized Street Canyons

A large-eddy simulation (LES) model, using the one-equation subgrid-scale (SGS) parametrization, was developed to study the flow and pollutant transport in and above urban street canyons. Three identical two-dimensional (2D) street canyons of unity aspect ratio, each consisting of a ground-level area source of constant pollutant concentration, are evenly aligned in a cross-flow in the streamwise direction x. The flow falls into the skimming flow regime. A larger computational domain is adopted to accurately resolve the turbulence above roof level and its influence on the flow characteristics in the street canyons. The LES calculated statistics of wind and pollutant transports agree well with other field, laboratory and modelling results available in the literature. The maximum wind velocity standard deviations σ _i in the streamwise (σ _u ), spanwise (σ _v ) and vertical (σ _w ) directions are located near the roof-level windward corners. Moreover, a second σ _w peak is found at z ≈ 1.5h (h is the building height) over the street canyons. Normalizing σ _i by the local friction velocity u _*, it is found that σ _u /u _* ≈ 1.8, σ _v /u _* ≈ 1.3 and σ _w /u _* ≈ 1.25 exhibiting rather uniform values in the urban roughness sublayer. Quadrant analysis of the vertical momentum flux u′′w′′ shows that, while the inward and outward interactions are small, the sweeps and ejections dominate the momentum transport over the street canyons. In the x direction, the two-point correlations of velocity R _v,x and R _w,x drop to zero at a separation larger than h but R _u,x (= 0.2) persists even at a separation of half the domain size. Partitioning the convective transfer coefficient Ω _T of pollutant into its removal and re-entry components, an increasing pollutant re-entrainment from 26.3 to 43.3% in the x direction is revealed, suggesting the impact of background pollutant on the air quality in street canyons.     

基于风廓线雷达的对流边界层高度的确定

大气边界层高度对于天气、气候和大气污染研究是一个至关重要的参量。对流边界层(Convective Boundary Layer,CBL)顶部的夹卷过程造成温度和湿度垂直梯度增强,导致这一层的折射率结构常数C■变高。C■的这种垂直分布特征经常被用来定位出CBL高度Z_i。本文利用2010年7—8月天津大港的风廓线雷达数据推断出CBL高度Z_i,对于多重C■峰值或不明确的C■峰值,本文改进了对Z_i的测定,分别讨论了C■最大后向散射法与C■和垂直速度方差(σ■)相结合的新方法的适用性。研究显示:(1)C■廓线具有单峰时,最大后向散射强度法能正确估计CBL高度,这种情况往往对应的是晴天。CBL上存在的残留层或云层引起的温湿起伏变化导致C■廓线具有双峰甚至多峰时,最大后向散射强度法可能会错误估计CBL高度;(2)C■和σ■结合的方法不仅与晴天时C■最大后向散射法有较好的一致性,而且可以将CBL造成的C■峰值从云层造成的C■峰值中区分出来,从而正确估计CBL高度;(3)一般而言,对流边界层中存在有明显的、破碎或者分散不明显的云时,C■和σ■结合的方法都能较好地识别出CBL对应的C■峰值。但由于边界层中的情况极为复杂,C■和σ■结合法也会因不同的原因而错误估计CBL高度。     

Über den Einfluß der Witterung auf den Schwefelstoffwechsel von Kaninchen

Zusammenfassung Während vier Monaten wurde der Harn einer Anzahl von Kaninchen, die radioaktiv markiertes Natriumsulfat (Na ₂ S ³⁵ O ₄) erhalten hatten, täglich auf seine Aktivität geprüft. Es ergab sich, daß an gewissen Tagen deutlich mehr Schwefel ausgeschieden wurde als normalerweise. Die Analyse führte zu der Feststellung, daß es sich durchwegs um Kaltfronttage handelte, die sowohl vor wie nach dem Durchzug polare Luftkörper aufwiesen; die fünf Kaltfronten mit tropischer Ausgangslage dagegen hatten keine biotrope Wirkung auf den Schwefelstoffwechsel.

---

Summary During four months the urine of a certain number of rabbits, which had received radioactively marked sodium-sulphate (Na ₂ S ³⁵ O ₄), has been examined daily as to its activity. It resulted that on certain days the secretion of sulphur was distinctly above the normal value. This was the case on all cold front days, which had a polar air mass before as well as after their passage. The five cold fronts following a tropical air mass on the other hand produced no biotropic effect on the sulphur metabolism.

---

Résumé L'urine d'un certain nombre de lapins, qui avaient reçu du sodium sulfaté (Na ₂ S ³⁵ O ₄) à marquage radio-actif a été examiné chaque jour quant à son activité. Il s'est avéré qu' à certains jours la sécrétion de soufre était remarquablement au-dessus de la valeur ordinaire. L'analyse a montré qu' à ces jours passaient des fronts froids qui été précédés et suivis de masses d'air polaire; en revanche, les cinq fronts froids qui, suivaient des masses d'air tropical n'avaient aucune influence biotropique sur le métabolisme sulfureux.

---

---

Mit 4 Textabbildungen     

On Transpiration and Soil Moisture Content Sensitivity to Soil Hydrophysical Data

Sensitivity of evapotranspiration E and root zone soil moisture content θ to the parameterization of soil water retention Ψ(θ) and soil water conductivity K(Ψ), as well as to the definition of field capacity soil moisture content, is investigated by comparing Psi1-PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF models. The core of PMSURF (Penman–Monteith Surface Fluxes) consists of a 3-layer soil moisture prediction module based on Richard’s equation in combination with the Penman–Monteith concept for estimating turbulent heat fluxes. Psi1- PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF differ only in the parameterization of the moisture availability function F_ma. In Psi1,F_ma is parameterized by using Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) hydrophysical functions; in Theta, F_ma is parameterized by using hydrophysical parameters: the field capacity θ_f and wilting point θ_w soil moisture contents. Both Psi1 and Theta are based on using soil hydrophysical data, that is, there is no conceptual difference between them in the parameterization of E even if in Psi1F_ma depends on 12 parameters, while in Theta only on two soil/vegetation parameters. Sensitivity tests are performed using the Cabauw dataset. Three soil datasets are used: the vG (van Genuchten), CH/vG (Clapp and Hornberger/van Genuchten) and CH/PILPS (Clapp and Hornberger/Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes) datasets. The vG dataset is used in van Genuchten’s parameterization, while in Clapp and Hornberger’s the CH/vG and CH/PILPS datasets are used. It is found that the consistency of soil hydrophysical data in the simulation of transpiration is quite important. The annual sum of E obtained by Psi1E^Psi1, differs from the annual sum of E obtained by Theta, E^Theta, because of the inconsistency between the fitting parameters of Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) and the θ_f, and not because of the differencies in the parameterization of F_ma. Further, θ_f can be estimated not only on the basis of using soil hydrophysical functions (the θ_f so obtained is θ^Soil_f) but also on the basis of analysing the transpiration process (the θ_fso obtained is θ^tr_f). θ^tr_f values estimated from the condition E^Theta ≈ E^Psi1 are in acceptable accordance with the θ^Soil_f values proposed by Wösten and co-workers. The results are useful in optimizing the parameterization of transpiration in land-surface schemes.