Intercomparison of the performance of MM5/WRF with and without satellite data assimilation in short-range forecast applications over the Indian region

The present study is conducted to verify the short-range forecasts from mesoscale model version5 (MM5)/weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Indian region and to examine the impact of assimilation of quick scatterometer (QSCAT) near surface winds, spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) wind speed and total precipitable water (TPW) on the forecasts by these models using their three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a 1-month period during July 2006. The control (without satellite data assimilation) as well as 3D-Var sensitivity experiments (with assimilating satellite data) using MM5/WRF were made for 48 h starting daily at 0000 UTC July 2006. The control run is analyzed for the intercomparison of MM5/WRF short-range forecasts and is also used as a baseline for assessing the MM5/WRF 3D-Var satellite data sensitivity experiments. As compared to the observation, the MM5 (WRF) control simulations strengthened (weakened) the cross equatorial flow over southern Arabian sea near peninsular India. The forecasts from MM5 and WRF showed a warm and moist bias at lower and upper levels with a cold bias at the middle level, which shows that the convective schemes of these models may be too active during the simulation. The forecast errors in predicted wind, temperature and humidity at different levels are lesser in WRF as compared to MM5, except the temperature prediction at lower level. The rainfall pattern and prediction skill from day 1 and day 2 forecasts by WRF is superior to MM5. The spatial distribution of forecast impact for wind, temperature, and humidity from 1-month assimilation experiments during July 2006 demonstrated that on average, for 24 and 48-h forecasts, the satellite data improved the MM5/WRF initial condition, so that model errors in predicted meteorological fields got reduced. Among the experiments, MM5/WRF wind speed prediction is most benefited from QSCAT surface wind and SSM/I TPW assimilation while temperature and humidity prediction is mostly improved due to latter. The largest improvement in MM5/WRF rainfall prediction is due to the assimilation of SSM/I TPW. The assimilation of SSM/I wind speed alone in MM5/WRF degraded the humidity and rainfall prediction. In summary the assimilation of satellite data showed similar impact on MM5/WRF prediction; largest improvement due to SSM/I TPW and degradation due to SSM/I wind speed.     

EXPERIMENT ON THE FORECAST OF CHARACTERISTIC QUANTITIES OF ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE BY MESOSCALE MODEL MM5

In nested nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5,the characteristic quantities of atmosphericturbulence,i.e.,the standard deviations of the turbulent fluctuated speeds for three directions inPBL are computed by Mellor-Yamada's level 2.5 closure scheme.The magnitudes and the verticalprofiles of these quantities computed from the model are closely connected with temperature andwind speed profiles as well as the type of the ground with a significant diurnal variation,and are inagreement with known magnitudes and regularities in different stratification conditions.Hence themethod in this paper is reasonable and convincible.Their horizontal distribution depends on thehorizontal distribution of the stratification.The method of predicted characteristic quantities ofturbulence from mesoscale model in this paper can be used in the problem of atmospheric diffusionand atmospheric environment.     

EXPERIMENT ON THE FORECAST OF CHARACTERISTIC QUANTITIES OF ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE BY MESOSCALE MODEL MM5*

In nested nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5,the characteristic quantities of atmospheric turbulence,i.e.,the standard deviations of the turbulent fluctuated speeds for three directions in PBL are computed by Mellor-Yamada's level 2.5 closure scheme.The magnitudes and the vertical profiles of these quantities computed from the model are closely connected with temperature and wind speed profiles as well as the type of the ground with a significant diurnal variation,and are in agreement with known magnitudes and regularities in different stratification conditions.Hence the method in this paper is reasonable and convincible.Their horizontal distribution depends on the horizontal distribution of the stratification.The method of predicted characteristic quantities of turbulence from mesoscale model in this paper can be used in the problem of atmospheric diffusion and atmospheric environment.     

Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model

This study investigated the performance of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind for a complex underlying surface in Northwest China in June and December 2015. The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地沙尘暴过境时近地层风速、温度和湿度廓线特征

利用塔中80m梯度观测塔探测系统采集的资料,详细的分析了2006年4月10日沙尘暴过境时,塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地近地层风速、温度和湿度廓线的演变特征。结果表明:风速廓线满足风速值随高度增高而增大,风速梯度随高度增高而减小的对数律关系;沙尘暴由爆发前到过境时,温度廓线的温度值由随高度增高而增大转变为温度值随高度增高而减小,同时在贴地层2m处存在一微弱拐点;沙尘暴过境时,近地层大气出现微弱逆湿现象,并在不同高度上存在多处拐点,比湿增减在时间上与风速的增减呈负相关性,且整个沙尘暴天气是一个降温增湿的过程。     

Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model when Forecasting Daily Surface Conditions in Southern Alberta

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.

Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of three microphysics schemes showed relatively minor differences between simulated precipitation as well as 2?m surface temperatures.     

Characteristics of the lower 1000-m atmospheric layer in the area of the Leningrad NPP-2

The calculated aeroclimatic characteristics of the lower 1000-m atmospheric layer needed to study the conditions for the atmospheric diffusion of pollutants are considered. The measurements of temperature profiles with the MTP-5 microwave temperature profiler and the data of weather balloon observations on wind speed and wind direction from the special meteorological station located at the Leningrad NPP-2 (LNPP-2) construction site are used as initial data. The characteristics of the vertical distribution of temperature and wind obtained from the observations in the LNPP-2 construction area and at the Voeikovo upper-air network station are compared.     

EVALUATION OF SURFACE-LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH HEIFE OBSERVATIONS

In this paper the mean wind speed profiles in the atmospheric surfacelayer over oasis, sand, and Gobi desert surfaces in the HEIhe river FieldExperiment (HEIFE) area are discussed for various stability conditions. Themathematical representation of mean wind speed profiles obtained fromdifferent sources are used to estimate the mean wind speeds, and the resultsare compared with observed wind speed data obtained at 20 m meteorologicaltowers over different ground surfaces. It is found that for unstable and neutral conditions, a compositeexponential profile and flux-profile relationship can be used to describe thewind speed profile in the atmospheric surface layer over homogeneoussurfaces, the composite exponential profile giving a relatively high accuracyin the estimation of wind speed profiles. For stable conditions, thecomposite exponential profile also can be used to estimate the wind speedprofile, but for very stable conditions, the accuracy is not good. For thoseconditions, flux-profile equations can give estimates of the wind speedprofile with relatively high accuracy.     

Composite wind and temperature profiles obtained from a complex of in-situ and remote sensing measurement systems for the forcing of a boundary layer model

Summary ?This paper describes the configuration of measurement systems operated continuously at the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg with the aim of constructing combined profiles of wind and temperature – so-called composite profiles – covering the boundary layer with high temporal and vertical resolution. This is required for the forcing of a micro-α-scale model in order to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer structure over a heterogeneous landscape during the LITFASS-98 experiment. The problems of combining measurements of different remote sensing and in-situ systems are briefly discussed. Although the measuring range of individual remote sensing systems is variable, the height coverage of wind and temperature profile measurements by sodar/RASS and two wind profiler radar/RASS complement each other very well. Using a simple merging procedure composite wind and temperature profiles have been synthesized based on radiosonde, windprofiler/RASS, sodar/RASS and tower measurements. Time-height cross sections of hourly composite profiles show considerably more details of the boundary layer structure than simple radiosonde interpolation due to the higher sampling frequency, higher vertical resolution and increased accuracy at the lower levels. Finally some qualifications of the formulated algorithm are suggested for future application. Received June 18, 2001; revised May 30, 2002; accepted June 6, 2002     

Charnock’s Roughness Length Model and Non-dimensional Wind Profiles Over the Sea

An analysis tool for the study of wind speed profiles over the water has been developed. The profiles are analysed using a modified dimensionless wind speed and dimensionless height, assuming that the sea surface roughness can be predicted by Charnock’s roughness length model. In this form, the roughness dependency on wind speed is extracted and the variations on the wind profile are due solely to atmospheric stability. The use of the Charnock’s non-dimensional wind profile is illustrated using data collected from a meteorological mast installed in the Danish North Sea. The best fit with the observed mean non-dimensional wind profile under neutral atmospheric conditions is found using a value of 1.2 × 10⁻² for Charnock’s parameter. The stability correction on the neutral wind profile suggested by the Businger-Dyer relations was found to perform well over the sea.     

Low-Level Wind Forecast over the La Plata River Region with a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model Forced by Regional Operational Forecasts

A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local observations, as well as a combination of both. The BLM wind forecasts are compared to the surface wind observations of five weather stations during the period November 2003–April 2004. Two accuracy measures are used: the hit rate or percentage of cases with agreement in the wind direction sector, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the horizontal wind components. The BLM surface wind forecasts are always more accurate, since its averaged hit rate is three times greater and its averaged RMSE is one half smaller than the Eta forecasts. Despite the large errors in the surface winds displayed by the Eta forecasts, its 850 hPa winds and surface temperature forecasts are able to drive the BLM model to obtain surface winds forecasts with smaller errors than the Eta model. An additional experiment demonstrates that the advantage of using the BLM model for forecasting low-level winds over the La Plata River region is the result of a more appropriate definition of the land–river surface temperature contrast. The particular formulation that the BLM model has for the geometry of the river coasts is fundamental for resolving the smaller scale details of the low-level local circulation. The main conclusion of the study is that operational low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region can be improved by running the BLM model forced by the Eta operational forecasts. L. Sraibman and G. J. Berri—Members of Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) of Argentina. An erratum to this article can be found at     

阵风因子与大气边界层要素的关系及预报试验

利用2008—2016年舟山4个海岛气象站大风资料和欧洲中心的ERA-interim再分析资料,分析了阵风因子随平均风速、风向、小时、月份等分布的气候特征,统计阵风因子与边界层的大气稳定度、250～1000m风速与10m风速的比值、6h变温等要素的相关后,选取最佳预报因子,利用BP人工神经网络方法,根据不同因子组合对阵风进行循环试报。结果表明:①平均风速较小时阵风因子波动范围大;靠近大陆站点的阵风因子及来自陆地方向气流的阵风因子偏大。②白天11:00—16:00受太阳辐射影响大气湍流相对较强,阵风因子偏大。7—9月沿海受台风影响频繁,其阵风因子要大些,而11—12月阵风因子偏大则与来流方向的地表粗糙度较大有关。③阵风因子和边界层不同高度的风速与10m风速比值,及气温具有明显正相关,与边界层大气稳定度参数具有负相关,相关结果印证了阵风主要物理成因与动量的垂直湍流输送有关。④阵风循环试报表明最佳组模型试报的绝对误差及方差均比对比组模型减少约11%～25%,具有较好的预报效果。     

基于数值模式的月尺度近地层气象要素预报技术研究

利用WRF模式对美国NCEP发布的CFS气候预测业务产品在中国区域内进行动力降尺度预报,可得到预报时效为45天的逐6小时、30 km分辨率基础气象要素预测产品。再利用全国气象站观测资料和3个风电场70 m高度风速、温度观测资料对2015年冬季预测结果进行检验评估和分析,最后通过线性方法对地面要素预测结果和70 m高度风速、温度预测结果进行统计订正。结果表明:（1）2 m温度和相对湿度的全国预报平均绝对误差分别为4.71 ℃和18.81%,在华东、华中和华南地区误差较小;（2）10 m风速预报平均绝对误差为2.42 m/s,在东北、华北和西北地区误差较小;（3）线性订正后,2 m气温、相对湿度和10 m风速的预报绝对误差分别减小1.05 ℃、5.29%和1.47 m/s,并且订正后误差随时间变化更平稳;（4）订正后70 m高度风速和温度的预报绝对误差均减小,风速平均误差减小最大可达1.29 m/s（B塔）,气温平均绝对误差减小最大可达3 ℃（C塔）。研究结果表明,基于CFS产品和WRF模式的、与月尺度风电预报关系密切的气象要素预报性能较好,未来可将该方法尝试于风电场的月尺度功率预测产品研发。      

Added-value of GEO-hyperspectral Infrared Radiances for LocalSevere Storm Forecasts Using the Hybrid OSSE Method

正021-0443-1.Article Highlights:·The added-value from a GEO-hyperspectral IR sounder is studied by using a hybrid OSSE method.·The hybrid OSSE system can be used to evaluate the simulated GEO CrIS-FSR data by verifying the simulated LEO CrIS-FSR compared to the real CrIS-FSR.·The assimilation of GEO-hyperspectral IR data improves atmospheric temperature, moisture, wind, and precipitation forecasts.·An overall 5%RMSE reduction was found from using a GEO hyperspectral IR sounder on the atmospheric variables.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Diabatic wind and temperature profiles obtained from a 100 m tower: A statistical comparison of model performances

More than 8000 10-min profiles of wind and temperature obtained during an extensive field experiment have been analyzed. The study was carried out in the environs of Valladolid (Spain) where a 100-m and a 6-m meteorological tower are located. Less than 20% of data were discarded due to equipment failure. Because of its exceptional flatness, the site is almost ideal for model performance comparisons.Predicted profiles of wind speed and potential temperature at 12, 26, 51, and 100 m heights were obtained using the methods proposed by Berkowicz and Prahm (1982) and San José (1983) based on values observed on a 6 m tower. Statistical t, F, and R tests were used to determine bias, scatter and correlation. The data were classified according to atmospheric stratification and height above ground. Finally, a determination was made of the predicted wind speeds and potential temperatures that fell within the 1 and 20% confidence ranges centered at the measured value. San José's method performed better than did that of Berkowicz and Prahm for the temperature profiles in both unstable and stable conditions. However, no significant differences were found for the wind speed profiles.     

Measurements and Modelling of the Wind Speed Profile in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

We present measurements from 2006 of the marine wind speed profile at a site located 18 km from the west coast of Denmark in the North Sea. Measurements from mast-mounted cup anemometers up to a height of 45 m are extended to 161 m using LiDAR observations. Atmospheric turbulent flux measurements performed in 2004 with a sonic anemometer are compared to a bulk Richardson number formulation of the atmospheric stability. This is used to classify the LiDAR/cup wind speed profiles into atmospheric stability classes. The observations are compared to a simplified model for the wind speed profile that accounts for the effect of the boundary-layer height. For unstable and neutral atmospheric conditions the boundary-layer height could be neglected, whereas for stable conditions it is comparable to the measuring heights and therefore essential to include. It is interesting to note that, although it is derived from a different physical approach, the simplified wind speed profile conforms to the traditional expressions of the surface layer when the effect of the boundary-layer height is neglected.     

雷达资料对0414号台风“云娜”数值预报的改进

运用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了2004年12月初登陆我国台湾的冬季台风"南玛都"的性质结构特征,结果表明:冬季台风"南玛都"具有与夏季台风相同的暖湿中心和低层辐合、高层辐散的环流特征,不同的是低层辐合气流中西南气流不明显,台风涡旋气流对大气的扰动偏弱.台风过程海平面气压距平场的EOF分析表明,台风生命史中的扰动主要由EOF1和EOF2构成(占90%的方差),EOF1反映台风结构和强度变化,EOF2反映了台风移动过程中的环境状态变化.     

GRAPES全球集合预报初始条件及模式物理过程不确定性方法研究

为描述GRAPES全球模式初始条件的不确定性,基于适合集合预报应用的GRAPES全球奇异向量技术,依据大气初始误差符合正态分布的特征,采用高斯取样奇异向量来构造全球集合预报初始扰动,在此基础上建立了GRAPES全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS)。利用GRAPES全球同化分析场,对采用初始扰动的GRAPES-GEPS连续试验预报结果进行检验和分析。结果表明:GRAPES-GEPS中高度场、风场及温度场预报的集合离散度能有效快速增加,集合平均均方根误差与集合离散度的关系合理;相对控制预报的均方根误差,集合平均的预报优势在预报中期非常显著。为进一步体现GRAPES-GEPS中模式物理过程的不确定性,发展了模式物理过程倾向随机扰动技术(SPPT)。试验结果表明:SPPT方案的应用有效提高了GRAPES-GEPS在南、北半球和热带地区等压面要素预报的集合离散度,同时一定程度减小了集合平均误差,进而改进了集合平均误差与集合离散度的关系,其中SPPT方案在热带地区的改进最为显著。本文发展的基于奇异向量的初始扰动方法和模式扰动SPPT方案在中国气象局2018年12月业务化运行的GRAPES-GEPS中得到了应用。     

The Morning Transition of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer

Six years of observations from a surface instrument site have been analysed to determine timings and factors influencing developmental changes in the near-surface wind and turbulent heat fluxes during the morning heating of the atmospheric boundary layer. A simple relationship has been found between near-surface wind speed and screen temperature, together with a predictive equation for the morning transition air temperature. Profile measurements from a probe mounted on a tethered balloon have beenused to supplement the surface data and study the processes underlying these surface relationships. The results have confirmed earlier work and have shown that both before and immediately after morning transition, almost all heating in the surface layer is due to turbulent diffusion from above. In order to explain the mechanisms involved in the relationships, a simple finite difference model has been run and validated against the profile data. The model predictions are compared with observations during both the morning and evening and the differences related to the different temperature profiles. Numerical forecasting rules for the surface wind speed and transition temperature are derived from the results.