Responses of runoff to climate change and human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment,western China

Based on hydrological and climatic data covering the period from 1961 to 2008, this paper studies the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment. The results show that the annual runoff of three rivers in Ebinur Lake Catchment exhibited different change trends. Specifically, in Jinghe River and Kuytun River exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but an adverse trend in Bortala River, and the variation trend has been the most dramatic since the mid-1990s. The observed variation in the runoff was resulted from the elevated alpine precipitation, rather than rising temperature, and that precipitation is a major factor for runoff generation. The runoff CAR model proposed by this paper can be used to predict the annual runoff in three rivers, and demonstrated annual runoff in Bortala River and Jinghe River will display an increased trend, while a less decreasing trend in Kuytun River under the climate change scenarios of warm-humid variation. In addition, the exploitation of the area of cultivated land led to more water resources consumption, primarily for agriculture irrigation, is the cause of the persistently ecoenvironment degradation, which have reached in a critical state thus, a more pressing concern is the development a scientifically reasonable and administratively practical water resource management scheme.     

气候变化对长江流域汉江和赣江径流的影响

近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性.     

Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff of forest catchment in northeast China

Hydrological processes change from the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Runoff in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin, which is mainly covered by forests in northeast China, decreased from 1960 to 2006. The data used in this study were based on runoff records from six hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistic was used to identify change trends and abrupt change points and consequently analyze the change characteristics in hydrological processes. The abrupt change in the annual runoff in most subcatchments appeared after 1975. Finally, the effects of climate change and land cover change on water resources were identified using regression analysis and a hydrology model. Results of the regression analysis suggest that the correlation coefficients between precipitation and runoff prior to the abrupt change were higher compared with those after the abrupt change. Moreover, using hydrology model analysis, the water yield was found to increase because of the decrease in forest land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High resolution climate change scenarios: implications for British runoff

Nationwide changes in spatially well‐resolved patterns of British runoff were investigated under two climate change scenarios derived from general circulation model (GCM) output. A physical process‐based hydrological model (HYSIM) was used to simulate effective runoff across a 10 km×10 km British grid under baseline and future climate conditions. A gridded baseline climatology for precipitation and the Penman variables was used to validate HYSIM across Britain using grid cell‐specific parameters derived from land use and soil type. The climate change scenarios were constructed from the Hadley Centre's high resolution equilibrium GCM (UKHI) for 2050 and transient GCM (UKTR) for 2065. Future effective runoff was simulated under both scenarios by applying changes in precipitation and the Penman variables to the baseline climatology. Annual effective runoff is shown to increase throughout most of Britain under the UKHI scenario for 2050, whilst it decreases over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario for 2065. Both scenarios show an increasing gradient in runoff between a wetter northern Britain and a drier south‐eastern Britain. This gradient is more pronounced under the UKTR scenario. Changes in effective runoff for winter and summer show an increase in seasonality under both scenarios. Winter runoff is shown to increase most in northern Britain under both scenarios, whilst summer runoff is shown to experience major reductions over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario. If these simulations are realized, Britain may expect an accentuated north to south‐east imbalance in available water resources. If this is combined with a temporal imbalance suggested by the increased seasonality, there could be problems for the future management of British water resources. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga–Bhadra river basin,India with HEC‐HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China

Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present‐day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi‐arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Gharesou River Basin Using SWAT Hydrological Model

The evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from ?90 to 120% during different months.     

Impact of human activities on stream flow in the Biliu River basin,China

The obvious decline in stream flow to the Biliu River reservoir over the period 1990–2005 has raised increasing concerns. Climate change and human activities, which mainly include land use changes, hydraulic constructions and artificial water consumption, are considered to be the most likely reasons for the decline in stream flow. This study centres on a detailed analysis of the runoff response to changes in human activities. Using a distributed hydrological model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), we simulated runoffs under different human activity and climate scenarios to understand how each scenario impacts stream flow. The results show that artificial water consumption correlates with the precipitation (wet, normal and dry) of the year in question and is responsible for most of the decrease in runoff during each period and for each different wetness year. A Fuzzy Inference Model is also used to find the relationship between the precipitation and artificial water consumption for different years, as well as to make inferences regarding the future average impact on runoff. Land use changes in the past have increased the runoff by only a small amount, while another middle reservoir (Yunshi) has been responsible for a decrease in runoff since operation began in 2001. We generalized the characteristics of the human activities to predict future runoff using climate change scenarios. The future annual flow will increase by approximately 10% from 2011 to 2030 under normal human activities and future climate change scenarios, as indicated by climate scenarios with a particularly wet year in the next 20 years. This study could serve as a framework to analyse and predict the potential impacts of changes both in the climate and human activities on runoff, which can be used to inform the decision making on the river basin planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological sciences—society's needs

Abstract

The hydrological regime of a mountainous catchment, in this instance the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece, was simulated for altered climates resulting when using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model for carbon dioxide doubling. The catchment snow water equivalent was predicted on the basis of the snow accumulation and ablation model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS), while the catchment runoff, as well as actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture storages, were simulated through application of the soil moisture accounting model of NWSRFS. Two scenarios of monthly climate change were drawn from the GISS model, one associated with temperature and precipitation changes, while the other referred to temperature changes alone. A third hypothetical scenario with temperature and precipitation changes similar to those corresponding to the mean monthly GISS scenarios was used to test the sensitivity of the monthly climate change of the hypothetical case on catchment hydrology. All three scenarios projected decreases in average snow accumulations and in spring and summer runoff and soil moisture, as well as increases in winter runoff and soil moisture storage and spring evapotranspiration.     

Assessment of future water resources and water scarcity considering the factors of climate change and social–environmental change in Han River basin,Korea

Water resources are influenced by various factors such as weather, topography, geology, and environment. Therefore, there are many difficulties in evaluating and analyzing water resources for the future under climate change. In this paper, we consider climate, land cover and water demand as the most critical factors affecting change in future water resources. We subsequently introduce the procedures and methods employed to quantitatively evaluate the influence of each factor on the change in future water resources. In order to consider the change in land cover, we apply the Multi-Regression approach from the cellular automata-Markov Chain technique using two independent variables, temperature and rainfall. In order to estimate the variation of the future runoff due to climate change, the data of the SRES A2 climate change scenario were entered in the SLURP model to simulate a total of 70 years, 2021–2090, of future runoff in the Han River basin in Korea. However, since a significant amount of uncertainties are involved in predicting the future runoff due to climate change, 50 sets of daily precipitation data from the climate change scenario were generated and used for the SLURP model to forecast 50 sets of future daily runoff. This process was used to minimize the uncertainty that may occur when the prediction process is performed. For future water balance analysis, the future water demand was divided into low demand, medium demand and high demand categories. The three water demand scenarios and the 50 daily runoff scenarios were combined to form 150 sets of input data. The monthly water balance within the Han River basin was then calculated using this data and the Korean version of Water Evaluation and Planning System model. As a result, the future volume of water scarcity of the Han River basin was predicted to increase in the long term. It is mostly due to the monthly shift in the runoff characteristic, rather than the change in runoff volume resulting from climate change.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change predicted for an inland lake catchment in Ontario by using monthly water balance analyses

Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China

Qingjiang River, the second largest tributary of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, has taken on the important tasks for power generation and flood control in Hubei Province. The Qingjiang River watershed has a subtropical monsoon climate and, as a result, has dramatic diversity in its water resources. Recently, global warming and climate change have seriously affected the Qingjiang watershed’s integrated water resources management. In this article, general circulation model (GCM) and watershed hydrological models were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed. To couple the scale difference between GCM and watershed hydrological models, a statistical downscaling method based on the smooth support vector machine was used to downscale the GCM’s large-scale output. With the downscaled precipitation and evaporation, the Xin-anjiang hydrological model and HBV model were applied to predict the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under A2 and B2 scenarios. The preformance of the one-way coupling approach in simulating the hydrological impact of climate change in the Qingjiang watershed is evaluated, and the change trend of the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under the impacts of climate change is presented and discussed.     

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff sensitivity to climate change for hydro-climatically different catchments in China

Communities are facing severe water stress due to the rapid development of agriculture and industry, climate change, as well as population growth. Climate variability has a big impact on runoff variation and it is important to understand these hydrological responses. Using a water balance model, monthly discharges of 21 climatically different catchments in China were simulated. Sensitivities of runoff to climate change were investigated by adopting hypothetical climate scenarios. Results indicate that the water balance model performs well for monthly discharge simulations of climatically different catchments with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >65 % and relative errors falling in the range of ±5 %. In general, runoff in arid north China are more sensitive to climate change than those in humid south China. A 1 °C rise in temperature would probably lead to 1.2–4.4 % decreases in runoff. A decrease in precipitation of 10 % would result in 9.4–17.4 % of decreases in runoff. It is essential to consider the implications of climate change in future water resources management.     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological responses of small-scale catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

The hydrological response of catchments with different rainfall patterns was assessed to understand the availability of blue and green water and the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands. Monthly discharge of three small-scale catchments was simulated, calibrated, and validated with a dataset of more than 30 years. Different temperature and precipitation scenarios were used to compare the hydrological responses in all three catchments. Results indicate that runoff reacts disproportionately strongly to precipitation and temperature changes: a 24% increase in precipitation led to a 50% increase in average annual runoff, and an average annual rainfall–runoff ratio that was 20% higher. An increase in temperature led to an increase of evapotranspiration and resulted in a decrease in the rainfall–runoff ratio. But a comparison of combined results with different climate change scenarios shows that downstream stakeholders can expect a higher share of available blue water in the future.     

The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area,Oregon, USA

Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi‐distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low‐density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher‐density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes

Abstract

The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.     

Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.