Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale

Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given.     

达索普冰川海拔7100m处粒雪中空气的封闭

The air-bubble formation has been studied experimentally in the Dasuopu ice core from the northern slope of Mount Xixabangma. It was found that air-channel volume decreases gradually, but the firn remains permeable down to the depth above the transition of firn to ice, i. e., about the depth of the air-channels closing off to be isolated bubbles. Apparently, there exists an age difference between air trapped in bubbles and surrounding ice. Only when the air channels close off completely, the age of the air increases in the same rate as the surrounding ice. Air-bubbles formed in different depths at different sites depending on accumulation rate and mean annual temperature, but approximately at a mean density of 0.79～0.83 Mg·m -3 . The air-channels in the Dasuopu firn core closed rapidly in the depth between 40 and 47 m, and 50% of air-bubbles were formed in the depth of 45 m. It is calculated that the age difference between air and its surrounding ice is 59 a, and the bulk age distribution width of air trapped in ice bubbles is 11 a.     

Comparative study of scintillations at the magnetic equator and at the crest region of the equatorial anomaly in Indian zone

Using simultaneous long-term observations of ionospheric scintillation at equator and anomaly crest region in the same longitude (Indian) zone comparative features of scintillation occurrence are brought out. The salient features are: (a) predominantly pre-midnight occurrence of scintillation at equator during winter and equinox seasons, (b) increase of pre-midnight scintillation occurrence with solar activity (c) shifting of occurrence peak during summer from post-midnight in low to pre-midnight in high solar activity periods (d) similarity of scintillation behaviour at these locations during winter and equinoxes but dissimilarity during summer. The solar activity response and magnetic effects indicate that the scintillations at the anomaly crest region in winter and equinox, particularly during high solar activity periods, are of equatorial origin while the summer events may be of local or mid-latitude origin.     

Electromagnetometry at the sea floor

Electromagnetometry at the sea floor has been developed over the last two decades taking advantage of the progress of positioning and acoustic technology in marine region. In spite of its risks and costs, electromagnetometry at the sea floor has significantly contributed to the study of conductivity anomalies through direct observations of electromagnetic variations at the sea floor. Some of the fruitful results of the ocean bottom observations around Japan as well as data processing of sea floor electromagnetic measurements are reviewed. Future problems in electromagnetometry at the sea floor are also discussed. In conclusion, the importance of establishing semipermanent electromagnetic observatories at the sea floor is emphasized.     

在全国工程咨询设计行业发展高峰论坛闭幕式上的讲话

各位代表:全国工程咨询设计行业发展高峰论坛,在与会各方的通力合作和密切配合下,围绕着"咨询发展,设计未来"的主题,完成了两天的议程,通过了《北京宣言》,达到了预期效果,论坛与时     

Nature of breccia rocks at the top of a salt body in the Verkhnekamskoe salt deposit at the Ural foredeep

The formation of sulfate-carbonate-clayey breccia rocks at the top of a salt body on the flank of the Durinsk trough of the Verkhnekamskoe salt deposit is related to tectonic displacement of the suprasalt sequence along a synsedimentary dip-slip of the Durinsk fault during the Early Permian Sheshmin Stage. The presence of relict minerals suggests that the rocks were formed from the insoluble residue of both salt and suprasalt sequences. Zonations revealed in the distribution of newly formed minerals and the breccia composition variation, which is manifested as the removal of calcite sulfate and manganese carbonate, match the weathering profile composition. However, the development of a system of diagonal sliding planes and selective leaching along them indicate that supergene alterations took place during tectonic dislocations.     

Identification of the projectile at the Brent crater,and further considerations of projectile types at terrestrial craters

Impact melt samples from drill hole B1-59 at the 3.8 km diameter Brent crater (Ontario) have been analysed for siderophile trace elements indicative of meteoritic contamination. Samples from the basal melt zone at 823–857 m depth are enriched in Ir, Os, Pd, Ni, Co, Cr and Se over basement, with the abundance pattern suggesting a chondritic projectile for Brent. From a Ni-Cr correlation of 10 melt samples an L or LL chondrite is inferred. The contribution of an ultramafic country rock (alnoite) in the melt is too small to significantly influence its $\text{Ni}\text{Cr}$ ratio. Glass-rich breccias from the allochthonous breccias filling the crater also contain a meteoritic component. Interelement ratios (e.g. $\text{Ni}\text{Cr}$) are, however, fractionated relative to the melt zone samples. This, as well as the low Au content of all Brent samples, is probably a product of alteration.Additional data on impact melts from the 65 km diameter crater Manicouagan still did not reveal a meteoritic component, as also for the Mistastin crater (28 km diameter) where Cr analyses set an upper limit of 1% of an achondritic projectile component in the melt. Irghizites (tektite like glasses) from the Zhamanshin impact structure have been found to contain high Ni and Co concentrations, and our data show that Ir is also enriched. It is however not possible to define the projectile-type. Enrichment of an Ivory Coast tektite in Ir is confirmed. There are large differences in siderophile element concentrations among tektites, with otherwise similar chemical composition.There are now four known craters formed by chondrites (Clearwater East, Lapparjärvi, Wanapitei, and Brent), with Brent being the smallest of these. For smaller craters the projectiles appear to be limited to iron or stony-iron meteorites, because of atmospheric destruction of relatively small stony meteorites. It appears, however, that all major classes of meteorites are represented among the projectiles at terrestrial impact craters.     

Place-making at the frontier of Brazilian agribusiness

The intricacies of one of the most relevant agribusiness frontiers in the world today—the north of the State of Mato Grosso, in the southern section of the Amazon, Brazil—are considered through a critical examination of place-making. Vast areas of Amazon rainforest and savannah vegetation were converted there, since the 1970s, into places of intensive soybean farming, basically to fulfil exogenous demands for land and agriculture production. The present assessment goes beyond the configuration of new places at the agricultural frontier, and starts with a qualitative intellectual jump: from place-making on the frontier to place-making as an ontological frontier in itself. It means that, instead of merely studying the frontier as a constellation of interconnected places, we examine the politicised genesis of the emerging places and their trajectory under fierce socio-ecological disputes. The consideration of almost five decades of intense historic-geographical change reveals an intriguing dialectics of displacement (of previous socio-ecological systems, particularly affecting squatters and indigenous groups, in order to create opportunities for migrants and companies), replacement (of the majority of disadvantaged farmers and poor migrants, leading to land concentration, widespread financialisation and the decisive influence of transnational corporations) and misplacement (which is the synthesis of displacement and replacement, demonstrated by mounting risks and a pervasive sentiment of maelstrom). Overall, there was nothing inevitable in the process of rural and regional development, but the problems, conflicts and injustices that characterise its turbulent geographical trajectory were all more or less visible from the outset.     

Terrane processes at the margins of Gondwana

Geologists （especially in North America） now use ＂terrane＂ for a tectonic block while use ＂terrain＂ for a topographic area. This is different from the world of literature where ＂terrain＂ is a British English word and ＂terrane＂ is an American English word and both mean the same thing--an area of ground with a particular geographic or geologic character. Terranes, as defined by the late Peter Coney and his colleagues in a seminal paper in 1980 （Coney et al., Nature, vol. 288, pp. 329-333）, are fault-bounded areas, each area having its own internal homogeneity and continuity of stratigraphy, tectonic style and history. The concept of terranes was first developed by W.P. Irwin in 1972 in view of the complex mosaic geology of California; the concept was then extended to the entire Cordilleran- Alaskan belt by other geologists, especially P. Coney.     

北阿尔金地区米兰红柳沟蛇绿岩的岩石学特征和SHRIMP定年

米兰红柳沟蛇绿岩是北阿尔金蛇绿岩带中发育和保留最好的蛇绿岩,主要由地幔橄榄岩、镁铁-超镁铁质堆晶杂岩、岩墙群和基性熔岩等组成.它们以规模不等的构造岩块产出,大者长十余km,宽近1km,组成一条近100km长的蛇绿混杂岩带.地幔橄榄岩以方辉橄榄岩为主,有少量纯橄岩,主要由橄榄石(Fo=91.2～92.7),斜方辉石(En=93-98)和少量单斜辉石(En=46)组成;副矿物尖晶石Cr#为43～69(平均55),Mg#为43～64(平均58),表现出深海橄榄岩(Abyssal peridotite)和俯冲带环境(SSZ)橄榄岩成分特点.深成堆晶岩主要由异剥橄榄岩-橄榄二辉石岩-(橄榄)辉石岩-辉长岩-斜长岩,该组合的堆晶岩通常被认为是SSZ构造背景的产物.席状岩墙群的岩石成分与熔岩一致,其TiO2(1%～1.5%)和低含量的K2O<0.3%和P2O5表明具有MORB型的岩石特征,并得到了不相容元素和LREE平坦型和亏损型的球粒陨石标准化模型等证据的支持.该地区另存在一套高Tj的洋岛型拉斑玄武岩.两类熔岩的存在,以及地幔橄榄岩和堆晶岩的不同特征,表明米兰红柳沟蛇绿岩组合可能来自不同构造背景.带中与洋壳俯冲有关的蓝片岩和榴辉岩组成的高压变质带的存在,以及与俯冲碰撞有关的不同类型花岗岩类的产出,表明米兰红柳沟蛇绿混杂岩带代表了一个复杂的板块缝合带.蛇绿岩中辉长岩的锆石SHRIMP年代为479±8Ma,这是获得的第一个北阿尔金蛇绿岩的锆石SHRIMP U-Pb同位素年龄,认为代表蛇绿岩的形成时代.因此,北阿尔金缝合带无论在年龄和特征等方面,均可以与阿尔金断裂带东部的北祁连缝合带对比,证实两个带曾经是一个带,被阿尔金断裂左旋错断了约400km.     

Paleoecological studies at Lake Patzcuaro on the west-central Mexican Plateau and at Chalco in the basin of Mexico

A 1520-cm sediment core from Lake Patzcuaro, Michoacan, Mexico, is 44,000 yr old at the base. All parts of the core have abundant pollen of Pinus (pine), Alnus (alder), and Quercus (oak) with frequent Abies (fir). The interval dated from 44,000 to 11,000 yr ago has a homogeneous flora characterized by abundant Juniperus (juniper) pollen and frequent Artemisia (sagebrush). It is believed to represent an appreciably drier and colder climate than at present. The Holocene at Lake Patzcuaro is characterized by a moderate increase in Pinus pollen and the loss of Juniperus pollen, as the modern type of climate succeeded. Alnus was abundant until about 5000 yr ago; its abrupt decrease with the first appearance of herbaceous weed pollen may reflect the cutting of lake-shore and stream-course alder communities for agricultural purposes, or it may simply reflect a drying tendency in the climate. Pollen of Zea (corn) appears at Lake Patzcuaro along with low peaks of chenopod and grass pollen at 3500 yr B.P. apparently recording a human population large enough to modify the natural environment, as well as the beginning of agriculture. A rich aquatic flora in this phase suggests eutrophication of the lake by slope erosion. In the most recent period corn is absent from the sediments, perhaps reflecting a change in agricultural practices. The environment changes at Lake Patzcuaro are similar to and correlate with those in the Cuenca de Mexico, where diatom stratigraphy from the Chalco basin indicates fluctuations in lake levels and lake chemistry in response to variations in available moisture. Before 10,000 yr ago climates there were cool and dry, and the Chalco basin was occupied by a shallow freshwater marsh that drained north to Lake Texcoco, where saline water accumulated by evaporation. Increases in effective moisture and possible melting of glaciers during the Holocene caused lake levels to rise throughout the Cuenca de Mexico, and Lake Texcoco flooded the Chalco basin with brackish water. After 5000 yr ago such flooding decreased, and shallow freshwater ponds and marshes were restored in the Chalco basin. This environmental change coincides with the appearance of Zea pollen and suggests cultural control of lake levels and salinity.     

Soil composition at the aquifer level,groundwater quality and the presence of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes at Dover AFB

Chlorinated solvents are among the most common groundwater pollutants globally. A common method to remediate this groundwater pollutant is through bioremediation. One of the most important bacteria that remediation workers use in this remediation is Dehalococcoides ethenogenes, which are the only dehalogenating bacteria with the capacity to break down these contaminants to the non-chlorinated compound, ethylene. While much is known about these bacteria in the laboratory, little is known about their natural habitat. In this experiment, eight sites on Dover Air Force Base were selected based on the larger CERCLA Closeout project; 2.54 cm wells were installed and groundwater samples were collected. These sites monitored groundwater quality parameters: temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and oxidative reduction potential. Additionally, samples were also analyzed for the contaminants: tetrachlorethylene, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride. The presence of vinyl chloride is an indicator of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes. Soil samples from the aquifer level were taken from each site as well and soil particle texture was assessed using the Bouyoucos hydrometer method. The objective of this experiment was to determine if there was a relationship between clay particles at the aquifer level, groundwater quality, and the presence of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes.     

黄河下游花园口河段洪水涨落过程中河床横断面形态的调整

利用黄河下游1950-1985年间218场洪水资料,讨论了黄河下游花园口河段洪水起涨和回落过程中河床形态调整的不同过程.在洪水起涨阶段,花园口河段河床宽深比以增大为主,且洪水最大含沙量越大,宽深比增大的幅度越大,洪峰增幅比在3以下时,宽深比随最大含沙量的增大而增大,洪峰增幅比在3以上时,呈随含沙量的增大而减小的趋势.在洪水回落阶段,宽深比的变化方向则相反.在含沙量较小时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水起涨阶段,在含沙量很大时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水回落阶段.     

Testing the fidelity of thermometers at ultrahigh temperatures

A highly residual granulite facies rock (sample RG07‐21) from Lunnyj Island in the Rauer Group, East Antarctica, presents an opportunity to compare different approaches to constraining peak temperature in high‐grade metamorphic rocks. Sample RG07‐21 is a coarse‐grained pelitic migmatite composed of abundant garnet and orthopyroxene along with quartz, biotite, cordierite, and plagioclase with accessory rutile, ilmenite, zircon, and monazite. The inferred sequence of mineral growth is consistent with a clockwise pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution when compared with a forward model (P–T pseudosection) for the whole‐rock chemical composition. Peak metamorphic conditions are estimated at 9 ± 0.5 kbar and 910 ± 50°C based on conventional Al‐in‐orthopyroxene thermobarometry, Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry, and calculated compositional isopleths. U–Pb ages from zircon rims and neocrystallized monazite grains yield ages of c. 514 Ma, suggesting that crystallization of both minerals occurred towards the end of the youngest pervasive metamorphic episode in the region known as the Prydz Tectonic Event. The rare earth element compositions of zircon and garnet are consistent with equilibrium growth of these minerals in the presence of melt. When comparing the thermometry methods used in this study, it is apparent that the Al‐in‐orthopyroxene thermobarometer provides the most reliable estimate of peak conditions. There is a strong textural correlation between the temperatures obtained using the Zr‐in‐rutile thermometer––maximum temperatures are recorded by a single rutile grain included within orthopyroxene, whereas other grains included in garnet, orthopyroxene, quartz, and biotite yield a range of temperatures down to 820°C. Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry returns significantly lower temperature estimates of 678–841°C. Estimates at the upper end of this range are consistent with growth of zircon from crystallizing melt at temperatures close to the elevated (H₂O undersaturated) solidus. Those estimates, significantly lower than the calculated temperature of this residual solidus, may reflect isolation of rutile from the effective equilibration volume leading to an activity of TiO₂ that is lower than the assumed value of unity.     

Improvement of the quartz sand processing at Hohenbocka

The raw sands from Hohenbocka (Germany) containing iron essentially in pyrite form is used for glass grade sands processing by dump leaching for several weeks followed by attrition and two-stage classification. The analysis of the sands by means of X-Ray Fluorescence Analysis (RFA) showed an average of about 420 ppm Fe. The objective of this investigation was to reduce the processing time and the total iron content below 105 ppm in the sand product for special glass applications. Due to the presence of sulfide and oxide iron at different ratios in raw sands, a combination of chemical and physical methods was investigated. Leaching was carried out at different acid concentrations, followed by surface cleaning by neutral and alkaline attrition, and gravity separation. Additionally, the effect of continuous addition of H₂O₂ during leaching to remove iron from sands was investigated. Only two days of leaching was required at the initial acid concentration to 25 g/L. After attrition and tabling of leached sands, a product with 84 ppm of iron was achieved. The continuous removal of dissolved metals by adsorption with active carbon could make it possible to reuse the regenerated sulphuric acid for leaching. With recirculation, the quantity of fresh sulphuric acid required was 0.4 kg/t of quartz sand.     

Marine geology at the World Court

Huge areas of the world's seafloor are being carved up among the nations, ignoring scientific knowledge of the geology, geophysics and geomorphology of the seabed.