Man and his transport behaviour Part 4a. User response to price changes: application of the ‘threshold’ concept

Summary

(1) The response of an individual consumer to change in such characteristics as price will be to change behaviour at a critical point, a ‘threshold’ at which a change of behaviour is perceived to be beneficial.

(2) Most choices can be viewed as binary, for example, between pairs of transport modes. A cumulative normal distribution of responses will give an S‐shaped curve, the mid‐point being at the average threshold value.

(3) An aggregate demand curve should show the response of a given group of people to a range of price changes at one point in time. Most curves derived from revealed behaviour do not permit this. To some extent, a demand curve must be derived from interviews and other tests, giving hypothetical behaviour. Such methods are used in non‐transport consumer tests, and work by Brög et al. gives a similar picture for transport users, supporting the concept of the S‐shaped curve.

(4) Allowance for frequency of trip‐making modifies this picture, suggesting that a smoother curve may be appropriate for some conditions, such as non‐work trips. These approaches may be combined by use of catastrophe theory, with two control factors. The hysteresis effect is found around the threshold where repeated changes in the basic stimulus produce successively smaller responses.

(5) There is some evidence of symmetrical response by public transport users to real increases and reductions in cash‐paid graduated fares, but this is not the case where different forms of pricing are involved.

(6) An example of threshold effects in private transport may be found in the monitoring of tolls on the Itchen Bridge by Atkins. Demand became particularly sensitive to price in a certain range.

(7) In the public transport field, there is similar evidence from the experience of introducing flat or zonal fares where graduated fares previously applied. Where travelcards are sold, the effect is much greater, and cases such as the West Midlands show little if any effect on sales despite real price increases. Here, trips are about 7% higher than would have been expected for the same revenue target, had graduated fares been retained. However, it may well be possible to exceed the threshold, especially where fares simplification and increases are combined, as the Trondheim experience suggests.     

Competition and ownership in land passenger transport: the fourth international conference — Part 2

In the rail industry worldwide, there has been a search for new solutions, including restructuring, corporatization, and outright privatization, but the complexity of the rail industry offers special problems. In the Workshop we looked in detail at the British, Swedish, German, Australian (New South Wales) and New Zealand experiences, as well as considering more general issues such as cost structures, vertical separation and competitive tendering. Whilst it was agreed that some developments, such as greater contracting out, were clearly beneficial, other developments such as the separation of infrastructure from operations remained of uncertain value until the issues of efficient pricing and slot allocation were resolved.     

Towards a microeconomic framework for modelling the joint choice of activity–travel behaviour and ICT use

The rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been argued to affect time use patterns in a variety of ways, with consequent impacts on travel behaviour. While there exists a significant body of empirical studies documenting these effects, theoretical developments have lagged this empirical work and in particular, microeconomic time allocation models have not to date been fully extended to accommodate the implications of an increasingly digitised society. To address this gap, we present a modelling framework, grounded in time allocation theories and the goods–leisure framework, for joint modelling of the choice of mode of activity (physical versus tele-activity), travel mode and route, and ICT bundle. By providing the expression for a conditional indirect utility function, we use hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate how our framework can conceptualise various activity–travel decision situations. In our scenarios we assume a variety of situations such as the implications of severe weather, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and the interaction between multiple decision makers. Moreover, our approach lays the microeconomic foundations for deriving subjective values of ICT qualities such as broadband speed or connection reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate the means by which our framework could be linked to various data collection protocols (stated preference exercises, diaries of social interactions, laboratory experiments) and modelling approaches (discrete choice modelling, hazard-based duration models).     

Public transit and alternative fuels – The costs associated with using biodiesel and CNG in comparison to diesel for U.S. public transit systems

This study addresses the dearth of research that examines the impacts of alternative fuel use on operational costs of public transit in the U.S. Specifically, the study examines the impact on operational costs of shifting diesel gallons to biodiesel or to compressed natural gas (CNG) for an unbalanced panel of 269 public transit systems in the U.S. from 2008 through 2012, using an econometric cost function approach. We find that shifting all diesel gallons to biodiesel results in operational cost increases ranging from 1 to 12 percent, with smaller cost increases being realized with increases in system size. Shifting all diesel gallons to CNG results in operational cost increases between 5 and 10 percent – again with smaller impacts for larger systems. These findings suggest that there are some economies of using biodiesel and CNG with large scale production. That is, the cost increases associated with increased fuel prices, decreased fuel economy, increased maintenance costs, and increased fueling costs associated with biodiesel and CNG are mitigated somewhat by large scale production. The findings of this study suggest that increased operational costs are an important consideration in policies aimed at encouraging the use of alternative fuels by U.S. public transit systems.     

Lead emission rates from gasoline engines—a legislative and in‐use emission rate study of U.K. and U.S. to 1990

Concern for reduction in air‐borne lead emission from passenger cars is focussed on both the legislative and practical steps in reducing lead in gasoline. The historical trends and projections to 1990 of present U.S. and U.K. policies are examined in terms of a baseline passenger car lead emission rate, g.km^‐1. It is likely that should the U.K. adopt a lead‐free petrol the decrease in lead emissions will only partially parallel the present U.S. experience from a start‐up date typically post 1990. The U.S. gasoline pool philosophy has permitted lead levels in gasoline to remain high; a pitfall which the U.K./EEC should avoid.     

Can agents measure up? A comparative study of an agent-based and on-line optimization approach for a drayage problem with uncertainty

Experiments studying the behavior of agent-based methods over varying levels of uncertainty in comparison to traditional optimization methods are generally absent from the literature. In this paper we apply two structurally distinct solution approaches, an on-line optimization and an agent-based approach, to a drayage problem with time windows under two types of uncertainty. Both solution approaches are able to respond to dynamic events. The on-line optimization approach utilizes a mixed integer program to obtain a feasible route at 30-s intervals. The second solution approach deploys agents that engage in auctions to satisfy their own objectives based on the information they perceive and maintain locally. Our results reveal that the agent-based system can outperform the on-line optimization when service time duration is highly uncertain. The on-line optimization approach, on the other hand, performs competitively with the agent-based system under conditions of job-arrival uncertainty. When both moderate service time and job-arrival uncertainties are combined, the agent system outperforms the on-line optimization; however, in the case of extremely high combined uncertainty, the on-line optimization outperforms the agent-based approach.     

Area-wide travel plans—targeting strategies for greater participation in green travel initiatives: a case study of Rouse Hill Town Centre,NSW Australia

Travel planning by employers promoting more sustainable travel has delivered less car dependent behaviour for the commute in many places. Area-wide or precinct travel plans are less common but, where they exist, attempt to provide a more holistic approach through capturing synergies between employers and employees throughout a precinct. Area-based travel planning aimed at influencing employers, employees and residents are new, especially in relation to creating synergies for a single precinct that has more of an origin focus with participants travelling to diverse destinations. This paper examines various strategies that have been employed in order to achieve greener travel and to provide a self-sustaining travel planning environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the community awareness, interest and involvement with a number of green initiatives and to understand how sustainable travel planning has been absorbed by residents within a new regional centre in New South Wales, Australia. The analysis of a resident survey undertaken in 2011 distinguishes between the community awareness and their propensity to take part in each of the greener travel initiatives. The results show that a generic approach is likely to be less effective than segmenting the market so as to more directly target likely participants. Attitudes to greener travel are also highly significant and working to change them should also affect potential take up of sustainable travel initiatives. The conclusions inform the development of successful precinct based travel demand strategies both in Australia and beyond.     

Comments on “Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector” [Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 66 (2014) 144–161]

This paper points out an important factor that was neglected by “Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector,” when analysing the operating economy of Arctic routes. Further, this paper explains the idea that cargo has a time value. Arctic routes are likely to bring greater commercial value than the Suez, if cargo time value were to be considered.