唐朝末年以来广西柳州干湿变化及人类活动演变

中世纪暖期和小冰期是近2 000年气候变化中重要的气候事件,厘清其在低纬度地区干湿变化特征及其对古代农业发展及人口增长的影响,具有重要的意义。通过对广西柳州岩溶洞穴中一60 cm岩芯进行孢粉、炭屑分析发现,研究区的气候、稻作农业从唐末以来先后经历了6个阶段演化：1）875―940 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：研究区气候整体偏干,水稻种植减少;2）940―1 050 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风增强,水稻种植稍增长,人口增加;3）1 050―1 140 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风减弱,稻作农业及人口较前期有所增长;4）1 140―1370 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：研究区当时气候处于“中世纪暖期”温暖湿润期,稻作农业面积扩大,人口增加;5）1 370―1 900 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：“小冰期”气候变干,水稻种植及人口逐渐减少;6）1 900―2 009 a A.D.气候变暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口迅速增长。进一步对研究区气候事件与稻作农业及人口关系研究发现：历史时期气候事件与水稻种植、人口具有耦合关系,即中世纪暖期,气候暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口增殖;小冰期,气候冷干,水稻种植萎缩,人口锐减。在非原地沉积时,莎草科和C/P 对水分反映敏感,可以用来指示气候干湿变化。     

长江下游地区崧泽文化时期农业形成及其影响因素研究

全新世的气候、环境变化与人类文明发展之间的关系一直是学术界研究的热点问题。长江下游地区崧泽文化时期（6 000—5 300 a B. P.）是文明起源的关键阶段,该时期稻作农业经济社会是否已建立及其影响机制依然不清楚。通过对常州地区青城墩遗址的植物大遗存研究,在24份浮选样品中共发现了131粒炭化水稻（Oryza sativa）种子和2 262粒炭化水稻基盘,该结果表明青城墩遗址先民在崧泽文化时期的农业是以种植水稻为主的稻作农业。结合前人研究工作发现,长江下游地区崧泽文化时期人类主要的生业经济是以种植水稻为主的稻作农业经济,辅之以采集葫芦（Lagenaria siceraria）、芡实（Euryale ferox）、桃（Prunus persica）、甜瓜（Cucumis melo）等野生植物资源为主的采集经济。7 000 a B. P.后海平面上升速率减缓和海岸线的东撤为开展水稻农业生产的古人类提供了大量的栖居环境,该时期相对温暖湿润的气候条件为水稻农业生产提供了良好的生境条件。6 000 a B. P.后的人口压力是长江下游地区古人类选择以稳定和高产的稻作农业为主体生业经济的原因。     

湖南凤凰茶田汞矿区土壤-水稻系统中汞的传输及其健康风险

通过野外系统采样和室内分析,研究了湖南凤凰县茶田汞矿区耕层土壤及水稻中Hg的含量分布以及土壤-水稻系统中Hg的传输和分配。结果表明:由于地质成因和人为采选矿活动导致矿区土壤及作物中Hg大量富集,与对照区相比,矿区耕作土壤、稻根、稻秆、稻米中Hg平均含量分别增加了267.6倍、8.6倍、5.8倍和2.3倍。土壤中的有机-硫化态Hg同稻根、稻秆、稻米中Hg含量间均呈现显著正相关性,但整体而言,Hg由土壤→稻根以及稻根→稻米的富集/迁移系数较低,移动性弱。矿区稻米Hg平均含量为0.09±0.04μg/g,与国家粮食卫生标准(GB2762–2005)的限值(0.02μg/g)相比,超标达4.5倍。当地居民终生平均每天摄入的Hg量为0.75μg/(kg.d),超过WHO推荐的可耐受剂量[0.71μg/(kg.d)],面临较大的健康风险。对矿区中多种元素研究发现,稻米中Hg、Pb、Se共同富集,其复合污染机制的研究亟待开展。     

盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统微生物特征

为揭示盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统微生物群落结构特征,1994-1995年,对松嫩平原苏打盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统水体与土壤中的微生物数量及种群组成进行了初步研究。结果表明,稻-鱼湿地水体中异养细菌数量显著高于稻田湿地(P<0.05),季节变化特点为秋季>夏季>春季。异养细菌的数量分布与鱼产量有显著相关关系(r=0.879)。稻-鱼湿地系统的土壤微生物数量明显高于稻田湿地(P<0.01)。稻-鱼湿地和稻田湿地分别检测出10个和11个属的异养细菌。稻-鱼湿地系统1个生长期细菌的平均生物量为0.973g/m3,生产量为307.5 kg/hm2,所提供的鱼产力为7.0 kg/hm2。     

长春地区稻田甲烷排放量的估算研究

1995～ 1997年 3年的实验研究中 ,用静态箱法和气相色谱仪对长春地区不同水管理方式稻田的甲烷排放进行了采样和测量工作 ,1996年和 1997年逢晴天还同步进行了地面实验基地的卫星遥感数据 (TM和NOAA—AVHRR数据 )的接收工作。根据测算的稻田甲烷排放通量和用遥感数据提取的水稻种植面积 ,估算出区域尺度的稻田甲烷排放总量。 3年来的研究结果显示 ,长春地区水稻种植面积为 17.72 12× 10 4 hm2 ,稻田甲烷平均排放通量为 2 .984mg/(m2 ·h) ,长春地区稻田甲烷总排放量为 0 .0 2 0 3Tg/a。用灰关联方法分析了稻田甲烷排放的影响因子 ,建立了以水稻植被指数为参数的淹灌稻田的甲烷排放通量估算模型     

Factors Influencing Indigenous Rice Protection in the Yuanyang Terraced Rice Fields of China

Indigenous rice has maintained the survival of local people for more than a thousand years in the Yuanyang terraced rice fields of southern Yunnan, China. It is the foundation for long-term stable development of local agriculture and food security and its unique and irreplaceable characteristics give the terraces value. The status of indigenous rice resources is threatened by serious loss, so a better understanding of rice diversity and the factors that influence rice variety protection is conducive to policy. Here, we investigate the planting and conservation situation of indigenous rice, analyze factors impacting the protection and loss of traditional rice varieties, and construct an indigenous rice protection influence index system. Controllable factors which have special meaning to the maintenance and management of local rice are identified and corresponding strategies for the protection and maintenance of indigenous rice are discussed.     

广东省水稻旱灾的评价及防旱抗旱对策

根据广东省水稻旱灾实况，提出了水稻旱情和干旱灾情没的评价指标，分析了广东省解放后历年旱，晚稻旱情和灾情及分布和变化规律，并针对本省的自然条件和灌溉现状提出了防旱抗旱措施。     

中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区的生产潜力模拟（英文）

In this study, information is collected on the weather, soils, field management and agricultural statistics in the Bangladesh, India and Myanmar(BIM) region. Crop growth parameters within the EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model are calibrated using cultivar data and regional experimental records of indica hybrid rice Fyou498 and Fengliangyou4 in China. Potential yields of rice are then simulated in the BIM region from 1996 to 2005. The effects of local irrigation and fertilization levels on super hybrid rice yield are examined. The potential yields of Chinese hybrid rice at local irrigation and fertilization levels in 2000 and at full irrigation and rational fertilization levels are found to be 10.22 t/ha and 11.33 t/ha, respectively. The potential for increasing monsoon rice production in the study region is 227.71 million tons. The eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain in India, the southeast coast of India Peninsula and the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar have the largest potentials for monsoon rice production. The northeastern and southwestern areas of the Deccan Plateau and the northwestern region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain need to improve irrigation equipment to meet the water-use requirements of high-yield rice. The central and southern plains in Myanmar and northeastern India need greater access to nitrogen fertilization for high-yield rice.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

Simulating potential yields of Chinese super hybrid rice in Bangladesh,India and Myanmar with EPIC model

In this study, information is collected on the weather, soils, field management and agricultural statistics in the Bangladesh, India and Myanmar (BIM) region. Crop growth parameters within the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model are calibrated using cultivar data and regional experimental records of indica hybrid rice Fyou498 and Fengliangyou4 in China. Potential yields of rice are then simulated in the BIM region from 1996 to 2005. The effects of local irrigation and fertilization levels on super hybrid rice yield are examined. The potential yields of Chinese hybrid rice at local irrigation and fertilization levels in 2000 and at full irrigation and rational fertilization levels are found to be 10.22 t/ha and 11.33 t/ha, respectively. The potential for increasing monsoon rice production in the study region is 227.71 million tons. The eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain in India, the southeast coast of India Peninsula and the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar have the largest potentials for monsoon rice production. The northeastern and southwestern areas of the Deccan Plateau and the northwestern region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain need to improve irrigation equipment to meet the water-use requirements of high-yield rice. The central and southern plains in Myanmar and northeastern India need greater access to nitrogen fertilization for high-yield rice.     

中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区的生产潜力模拟

水稻是孟加拉国、印度和缅甸最重要的粮食作物,研究中国超级杂交稻对孟印缅地区的水稻增产潜力,对于保障孟中印缅经济走廊的粮食安全与区域可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。在全面收集孟印缅地区气候、土壤、田间管理信息和农业统计数据的基础上,结合中国籼型杂交稻F优498和丰两优4号的品种信息和区试数据,通过EPIC模型模拟了1996-2005年雨季孟印缅3国在不同情景下的超级稻生产潜力,并分析了孟印缅地区主要胁迫因子对超级稻单产潜力的影响。研究表明：① 中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区2000年的灌溉和施肥水平下单产潜力为10.22 t/ha,在充分灌溉且合理施肥的水平下单产潜力为11.33 t/ha。② 孟印缅地区雨季稻的增产空间达22771万t,水稻增产潜力最大的地区是印度的恒河平原东部、印度半岛东南沿海与缅甸的伊洛瓦底三角洲。③ 印度德干高原东北部、西南部和印度大平原西北部需要进一步完善灌溉设备以满足高产水稻用水,缅甸的中南部平原地区和印度的东北地区则需要增施氮肥以满足高产水稻用肥。     

基于NDII及NDVI提取水稻信息的对比研究

基于水稻和银杏混合区的TM影像,分别引入NDII及NDVI提取研究区水稻信息,通过总量精度和位置精度的对比,发现NDII提取结果均优于NDVI。对研究区水稻和银杏样点的NDVI值和NDII值进行对比,发现其NDVI值相近,而NDII值相差较大。这从另一方面解释了利用NDII提取水稻结果优于NDVI。     

未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

研究我国水稻主产区季节性干旱受未来气候变化的影响, 对调整水稻种植布局、提高水稻生产适应气候变化能力具有重要意义。本文通过对比时间跨度为1981-2030 年水稻生产可用水量和季节性干旱的时空分布和干旱程度, 得出气候变化对未来我国水稻主产区季节性干旱有显著影响。主要结论有:2001-2030 年(对照期) 与1980-2000 年(基准期) 对比, (1) 早稻和晚稻生长季可用水量均值增加了10%以上, 中稻生长季可用水量保持不变。同时, 中稻和晚稻的生长季可用水量的空间分布更加均匀, 表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻生长季可用水量从整体上会更加充沛、空间分布会更加均匀, 有利于缓解季节性干旱的发生。(2)水稻的季节性干旱均呈下降趋势, 早稻季节性干旱减少1.25 万km², 中稻季节性干旱减少8.00万km², 特别是晚稻季节性干旱减少25 万km², 几乎占晚稻种植面积的20%。表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻季节性干旱总体趋于缓解, 特别是晚稻季节性干旱问题有明显改善。(3) 通过建立水文循环过程中可用水量与作物生长季需水量之间的关系, 构建的基于分布式水文模型的水分供需指数(WSDI) 适用于评估未来气候对水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响。     

东北地区水稻延迟型冷害时空特征及其与气候变暖的关系

利用水稻延迟型冷害分级指标和1951-2010 年东北地区101 个气象台站的逐日气温资料,采用累计距平、相关系数、气候倾向率、趋势系数等方法分析东北地区水稻延迟型冷害时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：蒙东地区西部、吉林东部和黑龙江交界延迟型冷害出现的频率较大,辽宁中南部延迟型冷害出现的频率较小。东北地区严重冷害出现频率高于轻度冷害和中度冷害。轻度、中度、严重延迟型冷害都呈下降的趋势,特别在1994 年后延迟型冷害呈快速下降的趋势,东北地区水稻延迟型冷害与气候变暖有着较好的对应关系,5-9 月平均气温和延迟型冷害呈明显反相关,5-9 月平均气温升高1℃,水稻延迟型冷害减少约45次。     

中国土地利用变化及其影响的空间建模分析

通过 GIS建模 ,本文分析了我国土地利用的变化与其影响因子之间的相互作用关系 ,并着重对耕地的变化及其空间分布进行了模拟。研究发现 ,土地利用的变化主要是自然与经济因素综合作用的结果 ,并且区分不同的规模尺度与不同的区域类型 ,将对提高土地利用空间变化模型的精度有着重要的影响。     

近17年城镇用地扩展对粮食生产影响的定量评估研究--以江苏省常熟市为例

运用多源遥感数据,获得常熟市1984、1992、1999和2001年四个时期城镇建设用地状况矢量数据。利用土壤普查资料建立土壤空间和属性数据库。统计分析并借助水稻土生产力评价模型对17年来城镇建设用地扩展占用的水田生产力状况评价研究表明：1984～2001年的17年间,常熟市城镇建设用地扩展占用水田面积2438公顷,根据现有的生产管理水平估算,粮食年产量损失总量约2万t,城镇扩展损失水田以生产力水平中、高等级为主,损失水田平均产量达8160kg／hm^2。水稻土生产力指数模型(SPI)可以对常熟市水田土壤生产力进行合理地评价,可以用来估算在城镇建设用地扩展对水田土壤生产力和水稻产量造成的损失量。     

A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR RICE ACREAGE ESTIMATIONWTTH REMOTE SENSING

1.IntroductionTomonitorgrowthofcropsandprwhCtgrainyteldwasoneofthemajorapplicationsofremotedensingfromtheverybopnning[2].WththelaunchinoftheLandsatIprograminl972,theNationalAghculturalStalisticsSetwceofUSStuftedtheremotesensingapplicationsinaghcutUralStaistics[l].TheLACmprograminthel97OsandAGmSTARSfromthebopnninofthe198OshavegreatlyadvancedthedevelopmentofremoteseneingtechnologyinprediCtingcropproduction,andexPandedtherangefromsinglewinerwheatyteldpredctiontomulticropsvie1dprediCtio…     

湖南省地形因素对水稻生产的影响

作为一种人工生态系统,水稻的生产受自然条件和人为管理的共同影响。其中,地形因素不仅决定了水稻生长必须的光热等资源的再分配,而且还影响人类的农业管理活动。以中国水稻主产区中地形较为复杂的湖南省为研究对象,基于多种数据,从生态学的“格局—过程”思想出发,讨论了地形因素对水田分布、水稻生长过程及水稻产量的影响。研究发现,地形因素对水田分布的空间格局影响最为明显,对水稻生长过程影响次之,而对水稻产量影响较弱。在各地形因素中,高程对于水稻生产的影响最为突出。研究结果还反映出地形因素造成了湖南省水田分布和热量分配在北部平原地区的不匹配,政府部门应根据区域特征,因地制宜采取措施,提高该地区水稻生产效益。     

Leimavo Revisited: Agrarian Land-Use Change in the Highlands of Madagascar

Describing and explaining land-use change is of critical concern in Madagascar, where land transformations such as deforestation and resulting environmental degradation currently capture widespread attention. While the eastern rain forest recedes in the face of swidden cultivators, the highlands demonstrate more constructive transformations. In this paper I present a case study of land-use change in Leimavo, a small village near Ambositra studied in the 1960s by Jean-Pierre Raison. Here, the twentieth century has seen a gradual reduction in irrigated rice cultivation and cattle husbandry, and a boom in market-oriented orange, vegetable, and grain production. In the long term, a historical landscape of grassy hills has been transformed into a productive cultural landscape with woodlots, anti-erosion benching, rice terraces, fruit groves, and diverse crops. Critical factors determining the trajectory of land-use change include regional population pressure, state policies, market incentives, climate variations, and access to land and water resources. These critical factors, or explanations, are linked in the discussion by the use of a simple heuristic device—the range of choice—as a theoretical framework.