Activation of old carbon by erosion of coastal and subsea permafrost in Arctic Siberia

The future trajectory of greenhouse gas concentrations depends on interactions between climate and the biogeosphere. Thawing of Arctic permafrost could release significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere in this century. Ancient Ice Complex deposits outcropping along the ~7,000-kilometre-long coastline of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), and associated shallow subsea permafrost, are two large pools of permafrost carbon, yet their vulnerabilities towards thawing and decomposition are largely unknown. Recent Arctic warming is stronger than has been predicted by several degrees, and is particularly pronounced over the coastal ESAS region. There is thus a pressing need to improve our understanding of the links between permafrost carbon and climate in this relatively inaccessible region. Here we show that extensive release of carbon from these Ice Complex deposits dominates (57?±?2 per cent) the sedimentary carbon budget of the ESAS, the world’s largest continental shelf, overwhelming the marine and topsoil terrestrial components. Inverse modelling of the dual-carbon isotope composition of organic carbon accumulating in ESAS surface sediments, using Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties, suggests that 44?±?10 teragrams of old carbon is activated annually from Ice Complex permafrost, an order of magnitude more than has been suggested by previous studies. We estimate that about two-thirds (66?±?16 per cent) of this old carbon escapes to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, with the remainder being re-buried in shelf sediments. Thermal collapse and erosion of these carbon-rich Pleistocene coastline and seafloor deposits may accelerate with Arctic amplification of climate warming.     

Metagenomic analysis of a permafrost microbial community reveals a rapid response to thaw

Permafrost contains an estimated 1672?Pg carbon (C), an amount roughly equivalent to the total currently contained within land plants and the atmosphere. This reservoir of C is vulnerable to decomposition as rising global temperatures cause the permafrost to thaw. During thaw, trapped organic matter may become more accessible for microbial degradation and result in greenhouse gas emissions. Despite recent advances in the use of molecular tools to study permafrost microbial communities, their response to thaw remains unclear. Here we use deep metagenomic sequencing to determine the impact of thaw on microbial phylogenetic and functional genes, and relate these data to measurements of methane emissions. Metagenomics, the direct sequencing of DNA from the environment, allows the examination of whole biochemical pathways and associated processes, as opposed to individual pieces of the metabolic puzzle. Our metagenome analyses reveal that during transition from a frozen to a thawed state there are rapid shifts in many microbial, phylogenetic and functional gene abundances and pathways. After one week of incubation at 5?°C, permafrost metagenomes converge to be more similar to each other than while they are frozen. We find that multiple genes involved in cycling of C and nitrogen shift rapidly during thaw. We also construct the first draft genome from a complex soil metagenome, which corresponds to a novel methanogen. Methane previously accumulated in permafrost is released during thaw and subsequently consumed by methanotrophic bacteria. Together these data point towards the importance of rapid cycling of methane and nitrogen in thawing permafrost.     

Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane

After methane, ethane is the most abundant hydrocarbon in the remote atmosphere. It is a precursor to tropospheric ozone and it influences the atmosphere's oxidative capacity through its reaction with the hydroxyl radical, ethane's primary atmospheric sink. Here we present the longest continuous record of global atmospheric ethane levels. We show that global ethane emission rates decreased from 14.3 to 11.3 teragrams per year, or by 21 per cent, from 1984 to 2010. We attribute this to decreasing fugitive emissions from ethane's fossil fuel source--most probably decreased venting and flaring of natural gas in oil fields--rather than a decline in its other major sources, biofuel use and biomass burning. Ethane's major emission sources are shared with methane, and recent studies have disagreed on whether reduced fossil fuel or microbial emissions have caused methane's atmospheric growth rate to slow. Our findings suggest that reduced fugitive fossil fuel emissions account for at least 10-21 teragrams per year (30-70 per cent) of the decrease in methane's global emissions, significantly contributing to methane's slowing atmospheric growth rate since the mid-1980s.     

融湖下冻土底部热状况分析

利用热平衡积分法求出了一类伴有相变的一维热传导方程在具有稳定地中热源条件下的融化深度X_(pb)与所用的时间t的关系,并根据Alaska北极Barrow地区的冻土与融湖资料,摄动深度δ与X_(pb)的比,ξ为25,进而用所得解求得了融湖下底部冻土融化深度随时间变化的曲线。     

Snowball Earth termination by destabilization of equatorial permafrost methane clathrate

The start of the Ediacaran period is defined by one of the most severe climate change events recorded in Earth history--the recovery from the Marinoan 'snowball' ice age, approximately 635 Myr ago (ref. 1). Marinoan glacial-marine deposits occur at equatorial palaeolatitudes, and are sharply overlain by a thin interval of carbonate that preserves marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions of about -5 and +15 parts per thousand, respectively; these deposits are thought to record widespread oceanic carbonate precipitation during postglacial sea level rise. This abrupt transition records a climate system in profound disequilibrium and contrasts sharply with the cyclical stratigraphic signal imparted by the balanced feedbacks modulating Phanerozoic deglaciation. Hypotheses accounting for the abruptness of deglaciation include ice albedo feedback, deep-ocean out-gassing during post-glacial oceanic overturn or methane hydrate destabilization. Here we report the broadest range of oxygen isotope values yet measured in marine sediments (-25 per thousand to +12 per thousand) in methane seeps in Marinoan deglacial sediments underlying the cap carbonate. This range of values is likely to be the result of mixing between ice-sheet-derived meteoric waters and clathrate-derived fluids during the flushing and destabilization of a clathrate field by glacial meltwater. The equatorial palaeolatitude implies a highly volatile shelf permafrost pool that is an order of magnitude larger than that of the present day. A pool of this size could have provided a massive biogeochemical feedback capable of triggering deglaciation and accounting for the global postglacial marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions, abrupt unidirectional warming, cap carbonate deposition, and a marine oxygen crisis. Our findings suggest that methane released from low-latitude permafrost clathrates therefore acted as a trigger and/or strong positive feedback for deglaciation and warming. Methane hydrate destabilization is increasingly suspected as an important positive feedback to climate change that coincides with critical boundaries in the geological record and may represent one particularly important mechanism active during conditions of strong climate forcing.     

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.     

Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire

Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon (C) in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old that insulate, and in some cases maintain, permafrost soils. Fire has been largely absent from most of this biome since the early Holocene epoch, but its frequency and extent are increasing, probably in response to climate warming. The effect of fires on the C balance of tundra landscapes, however, remains largely unknown. The Anaktuvuk River fire in 2007 burned 1,039 square kilometres of Alaska's Arctic slope, making it the largest fire on record for the tundra biome and doubling the cumulative area burned since 1950 (ref. 5). Here we report that tundra ecosystems lost 2,016?±?435?g?C?m(-2) in the fire, an amount two orders of magnitude larger than annual net C exchange in undisturbed tundra. Sixty per cent of this C loss was from soil organic matter, and radiocarbon dating of residual soil layers revealed that the maximum age of soil C lost was 50 years. Scaled to the entire burned area, the fire released approximately 2.1?teragrams of C to the atmosphere, an amount similar in magnitude to the annual net C sink for the entire Arctic tundra biome averaged over the last quarter of the twentieth century. The magnitude of ecosystem C lost by fire, relative to both ecosystem and biome-scale fluxes, demonstrates that a climate-driven increase in tundra fire disturbance may represent a positive feedback, potentially offsetting Arctic greening and influencing the net C balance of the tundra biome.     

Recent decreases in fossil-fuel emissions of ethane and methane derived from firn air

Methane and ethane are the most abundant hydrocarbons in the atmosphere and they affect both atmospheric chemistry and climate. Both gases are emitted from fossil fuels and biomass burning, whereas methane (CH(4)) alone has large sources from wetlands, agriculture, landfills and waste water. Here we use measurements in firn (perennial snowpack) air from Greenland and Antarctica to reconstruct the atmospheric variability of ethane (C(2)H(6)) during the twentieth century. Ethane levels rose from early in the century until the 1980s, when the trend reversed, with a period of decline over the next 20?years. We find that this variability was primarily driven by changes in ethane emissions from fossil fuels; these emissions peaked in the 1960s and 1970s at 14-16 teragrams per year (1?Tg = 10(12)?g) and dropped to 8-10?Tg yr(-1) by the turn of the century. The reduction in fossil-fuel sources is probably related to changes in light hydrocarbon emissions associated with petroleum production and use. The ethane-based fossil-fuel emission history is strikingly different from bottom-up estimates of methane emissions from fossil-fuel use, and implies that the fossil-fuel source of methane started to decline in the 1980s and probably caused the late twentieth century slow-down in the growth rate of atmospheric methane.     

Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO2

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) can affect biotic and abiotic conditions in soil, such as microbial activity and water content. In turn, these changes might be expected to alter the production and consumption of the important greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) (refs 2, 3). However, studies on fluxes of N(2)O and CH(4) from soil under increased atmospheric CO(2) have not been quantitatively synthesized. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased CO(2) (ranging from 463 to 780 parts per million by volume) stimulates both N(2)O emissions from upland soils and CH(4) emissions from rice paddies and natural wetlands. Because enhanced greenhouse-gas emissions add to the radiative forcing of terrestrial ecosystems, these emissions are expected to negate at least 16.6 per cent of the climate change mitigation potential previously predicted from an increase in the terrestrial carbon sink under increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. Our results therefore suggest that the capacity of land ecosystems to slow climate warming has been overestimated.     

The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect, although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate. Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds. Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive. Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.     

Stimulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold event.     

Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change

Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.     

Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last termination

Past atmospheric methane concentrations show strong fluctuations in parallel to rapid glacial climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere superimposed on a glacial-interglacial doubling of methane concentrations. The processes driving the observed fluctuations remain uncertain but can be constrained using methane isotopic information from ice cores. Here we present an ice core record of carbon isotopic ratios in methane over the entire last glacial-interglacial transition. Our data show that the carbon in atmospheric methane was isotopically much heavier in cold climate periods. With the help of a box model constrained by the present data and previously published results, we are able to estimate the magnitude of past individual methane emission sources and the atmospheric lifetime of methane. We find that methane emissions due to biomass burning were about 45 Tg methane per year, and that these remained roughly constant throughout the glacial termination. The atmospheric lifetime of methane is reduced during cold climate periods. We also show that boreal wetlands are an important source of methane during warm events, but their methane emissions are essentially shut down during cold climate conditions.     

Increased terrestrial methane cycling at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), a period of intense, global warming about 55 million years ago, has been attributed to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas levels, with dissociation of methane hydrates being the most commonly invoked explanation. It has been suggested previously that high-latitude methane emissions from terrestrial environments could have enhanced the warming effect, but direct evidence for an increased methane flux from wetlands is lacking. The Cobham Lignite, a recently characterized expanded lacustrine/mire deposit in England, spans the onset of the PETM and therefore provides an opportunity to examine the biogeochemical response of wetland-type ecosystems at that time. Here we report the occurrence of hopanoids, biomarkers derived from bacteria, in the mire sediments from Cobham. We measure a decrease in the carbon isotope values of the hopanoids at the onset of the PETM interval, which suggests an increase in the methanotroph population. We propose that this reflects an increase in methane production potentially driven by changes to a warmer and wetter climate. Our data suggest that the release of methane from the terrestrial biosphere increased and possibly acted as a positive feedback mechanism to global warming.     

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.     

Permafrost changes and engineering stability in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Climate change and engineering activities are the leading causes of permafrost temperature increase,active layer thickening,and ground-ice thaw,which trigger changes in the engineering stability of embankments.Based on the important research advances on permafrost changes and frozen soil engineering in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,the changes in permafrost temperature and active layer thickness,their relationships with climate factors,the response process of engineering activities on permafrost,dynamic change of engineering stability of Qinghai-Xizang Railway,and the cooling mechanism and process of crushed-rock layers are discussed using the monitoring data of permafrost and embankment deformation.Finally,solutions to the key scientific problems of frozen soil engineering under climate change are proposed.     

Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika,Africa

Although the effects of climate warming on the chemical and physical properties of lakes have been documented, biotic and ecosystem-scale responses to climate change have been only estimated or predicted by manipulations and models. Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. This lake has historically supported a highly productive pelagic fishery that currently provides 25-40% of the animal protein supply for the populations of the surrounding countries. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century, a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column. A regional decrease in wind velocity has contributed to reduced mixing, decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters. Carbon isotope records in sediment cores suggest that primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields. Our study provides evidence that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions and services can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or overfishing.     

永冻区埋地热油管道热力计算

埋地热油管道通过永冻地带时,会导致土壤解冻,进而导致管道沉陷和土壤物性参数变化。分析管道周围土壤融化圈变化对管道系统的设计、施工和管理是必需的。考虑热油管道对其周围土壤的影响和半无穷大土壤的传热,提出了描述永冻地区土壤融化圈变化的数学模型。通过一定的数学处理得到了计算融化圈的特征线方程,并采用差分法进行求解特征线方程,获得了满意的结果。计算分析表明,这一方法是可行的。     

Thawing and freezing processes of active layer in Wudaoliang region of Tibetan Plateau

The interaction between permafrost and atmosphere is accomplished through transfer of heat and moisture in the overlay active layer. Thus, the research on the thermal and hydrodynamics of active layer during the thawing and freezing processes was considered a key to revealing the heat and moisture exchanges between permafrost and atmosphere. The monitoring and research on active layer were conducted because permafrost occupies about two thirds of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the analysis of the ground temperature data and soil moisture data of monitoring near the Wudaoliang region of the Tibetan Plateau, the thawing and freezing processes of active layer were divided into four stages, i.e. summer thawing stage (ST), autumn freezing stage (AF), winter cooling stage (WC) and spring warming stage (SW). Coupled heat and water flow is much more complicated in ST and AF, and more amount of water is migrating in these two stages. Heat is transferred mainly via conductive heat flow in the other two stages, and less water migrated. Four water migration and coupled heat flow processes were addressed for the thawing and freezing stages, which are water infiltration driven by gravity, moisture advection and distillation driven by temperature and osmotic gradients, water migration driven by capillarity and unfrozen water migration driven by temperature gradient. The water content near the permafrost table tends to increase after one thawing and freezing cycle, which is the main reason for the development of thick ground ice layer near permafrost table.     

Classification of Tibetan lakes based on variations in seasonal lake water temperature

Widespread lakes on the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are valuable archives for investigating climate and environment changes, which could provide essential information on the mechanisms of past climate changes on the TP and their interaction with the global climate systems. However, there is a lack of in-depth investigation of modern limnological processes in the Tibetan lakes, which hampers the understanding of paleolimnological records and lake ecosystem succession. In this study, we performed continuous temperature monitoring at two lakes, Bangong Co, a freshwater lake in the western TP, and Dagze Co, a brackish lake in the central TP, in order to characterize the patterns of seasonal temperature variability, stratification, and mixing. Temperature data for an entire hydrological year demonstrate that Bangong Co is a dimictic lake and that Dagze Co is a meromictic lake. The higher salinity in the deep water at Dagze Co prevents the lake from overturning completely, and this finding is supported by simulations using a physical limnological model Lake Analyzer. Continuous lake water temperature monitoring provides fundamental data for classifying Tibetan lakes, as well as the hydrological basis for understanding their pa- leolimnological records and ecosystem succession.