城市地震次生火灾蔓延模型研究

地震次生火灾是震后发生最为频繁和造成灾害损失最为严重的次生灾害。随着城市化进程的加快,原本城乡结合处的老旧建筑成片区大量存在,一旦地震发生,建筑破坏尤为严重,区域建筑密集等因素为次生火灾的发生和蔓延提供了基础条件,因此对城市地震次生火灾研究显得尤为重要。从工程应用出发,通过确定火灾蔓延的经验参数,建立了基于建筑的城市地震次生火灾蔓延模型,模型主要包括建筑内火灾蔓延和相邻建筑之间的火灾蔓延两个过程,模型中考虑了建筑结构类型、地震对建筑破坏、风速和风向和相邻建筑蔓延的极限距离等影响因素对蔓延的影响。利用1995年日本阪神大地震中水笠公园周边建筑火灾蔓延实际数据,与本文建立的模型模拟结果进行对比分析,说明该模型具有较好的可信度。     

地震次生火灾预测模型研究

本文研究了地震次生火灾预测的理论建模问题,文中建议用泊松过程模拟次生火灾的发生概率,并在此基础上推导了单幢建筑物和城市小区的地震次生火灾发生模型。     

基于G1S确定城市地震次生火灾高危区方法的研究

本文采用建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型,给出建筑结构在地震破坏状态下的次生火灾发生的概率。通过综合分析其它影响因素,给出判定城市地震次生火灾发生的高危险区的方法。并在GIS(Geograpllic Information System)下实现对城市地震次生火灾高危险区的划分。     

村镇地震次生火灾危险性评价的探讨

地震次生火灾是村镇最易发生、最危险的地震次生灾害。结合我国村镇现状,分析了村镇地震次生火灾呈现起火点多、火灾蔓延迅速等特征,提出起火、蔓延的灾害链式演化模型。分析了单栋房屋起火、蔓延和房屋间火灾蔓延的指标及其计算方法,尝试给出了村镇地震次生火灾危险性评价模型。以某县城镇为例,评价了地震次生火灾危险性并进行了可视化展示。     

强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的模糊数学评估模型研究

在强烈地震发生后,会引发建筑火灾等次生灾害,涉及因素较多,传统火灾危险性数学模型忽略了强震后既有建筑发生火灾时不同因素的随机性与模糊性特性,难于建立健全的评估数学模型,导致评估精度低。为解决该问题,通过分析强震后既有建筑火灾影响,用因素模糊数学方法建立强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估数学模型及评估体系。具体方法是对评估指标体系中各层因素针对上层因素影响进行评分,建立判断矩阵,获取权重。确定隶属度矩阵,获取强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估的因素集与评语集,构造单因素评判,给评估集中的因素赋予权重,进行一级模糊评估。把一级评估结果当成二级评估的单因素评估,通过模糊数学理论完成对强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的评估,得到综合评估结果。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,得到结果符合实际情况,与其他模型相比,所提模型评估精度高。     

基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾蔓延初步研究——以福州市区为例

以W Arcview/GIS为工具 ,结合传统的火焰蔓延数学模型 ,发展了复杂系统条件下城市地震次生火灾蔓延的计算机仿真模型 ,并结合福州市主要建筑物结构类型的具体情况 ,提出了根据建筑物类型来区分不同可燃物类型的划分方案。结合火源、风向风力、可燃物分布等因素 ,该模型在地震时可用以判定某一时段内可能的延烧区域 ,估计地震次生火灾的灾害程度及其直接经济损失     

建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型

本文探讨了建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出分析的基本思路,提出了与建筑结构地震破坏状态相关的次生火灾发生和蔓延的危险性概率模型。通过对相关参数的初步量化分析,结合城市防灾工作中广泛使用的地理信息系统,给出了用于城市建筑物震后可能发生火灾或使火灾蔓延的危险性分析和次生火灾高危险区域的确定方法。     

地震次生火灾可扑救性的网络分析

以忻州市为例,选取其中３个次生灾害源,结合城市供水、建筑、交通等系统,提出用网络分析法研究地震次生火灾的可扑救性．     

珠江三角洲地震次生灾害初步研究

介绍了地震后可能引发的地震火灾、爆炸等次生灾害；讨论了地震火灾及损失的影响因素；根据次生灾害源的分布，初步定性预测它们可能带来的损失及影响。     

能源供应系统地震次生火灾危险性与火灾荷载评估

能源供应系统的地震安全是防震减灾的重要课题。研究了能源供应系统可能遭遇的地震次生火灾危险性评估和火灾荷载的评价分析方法,包括危险性评估、火灾荷载、温度计算、火灾减灾等。这些方法为能源供应系统防御地震次生火灾提供了有效途径,具有很好的应用前景。     

考虑双向水平地震作用的结构设计问题研究

分析了抗震设计中考虑双向水平地震作用的必要性,指出了研究双向地震作用的必要性,通过国内外规范相关条文的对比指出目前研究有待完善的关键问题和方向,结合近期研究成果对其中几个值得注意的问题提出建议。     

基于地震危险性分析的场地地震动持时特性研究

通过地震危险性分析计算,认为场地震动力持时主要决定于近场地震影响,潜在震源区震级上限越大,场地地震动持时越大,潜在震源区其它地震活动性参数（年发生率、起算震级、ｂ值）减小或设防水准降低,场地地震动持时增加,且地震动持时增加幅度较小。     

Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999~2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seismic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accuracy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tectonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

Studies on seismic waves

The development of seismic wave study in China in the past four years is reviewed. The discussion is divided into several aspects, including seismic wave propagation in laterally homogeneous media, laterally heterogeneous media, anisotropic and porous media, surface wave and seismic wave inversion, and seismic wave study in prospecting and logging problems. Important projects in the current studies on seismic wave is suggested as the development of high efficient numerical methods, and applying them to the studies of excitation and propagation of seismic waves in complex media and strong ground motion, which will form a foundation for refined earthquake hazard analysis and prediction.     

Studies on seismic waves

The development of seismic wave study in China in the past four years is reviewed. The discussion is divided into several aspects, including seismic wave propagation in laterally homogeneous media, laterally heterogeneous me-dia, anisotropie and porous media, surface wave and seismic wave inversion, and seismic wave study in prospect-ing and logging problems. Important projects in the current studies on seismic wave is suggested as the develop-ment of high efficient numerical methods, and applying them to the studies of excitation and propagation of seis-mic waves in complex media and strong ground motion, which will form a foundation for refined earthquake haz-ard analysis and prediction.     

Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999-2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seis-mic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accu-racy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tec-tonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

基于地震监测能力的地方测震台网布局优化

为解决带约束条件的台站选址问题,本文借鉴公共服务设施选址最优化理论,深入分析测震台网监测能力的构成要素,并考虑地形坡度、环境噪声水平、台站布局等约束条件,建立了基于地震检测能力、记录能力和定位精度的台网布局最优化模型。之后以成都市测震台网为例,经模拟退火算法求解,获得了分别满足重点监测区和非重点监测区地震监测能力需求的台网布局优化方案,明确给出了新增或新建监测台站的地理位置。      

地震数据采集器自噪声检测研究

本文采用多通道相关分析方法测量并分析研究了国内地震观测常用的6种进口地震数据采集器的自噪声.结果表明:6种进口地震数据采集器无论在普通增益还是高增益模式下,当频带范围处于1 Hz以下时,自噪声均低于NLNM低噪声模型(灵敏度按750 V·s/m换算);在低增益模式下,当频带范围处于1 Hz以上时,各数据采集器的自噪声与NLNM低噪声模型高低交错,须根据观测目的谨慎使用;Q330HRS和Reftek-130/130S型数据采集器的高增益模式较适合测量宽频带地震计的自噪声.      

Research on seismic stress triggering

Introduction What is called seismic stress triggering refers to that stress change tensor produced by previous earthquake projected on the fault plane and slip direction of subsequent earthquakes, taking into account normal stress, pore pressure and friction coefficient, and Coulomb failure stress change DCFS can be obtained. If the direction of Coulomb failure stress changes are consistent with slip direction of subsequent seismic mechanism, e.g., Coulomb failure stress changes are positive…