基于议题偏好修改的Agent劝说机制及应用研究

基于议题偏好修改的Agent劝说能更好提高Agent在动态环境下的谈判效率,保证谈判效果。针对该模式,结合形式逻辑理论,提出了相应的劝说机制,包括相应的表述模型和支持该模型的算法,并提出了劝说影响因子的概念,最后基于Jade平台和Java语言,通过系统实现验证了该机制。结果表明,该机制能更进一步发挥Agent在劝说中的人工智能特性。     

基于SOAR模型的网民群体负面情感建模研究

面向网络舆情演变过程中政府应急响应需求，本文基于SOAR （State，Operator and Result）模型，将网民作为智能体Agent，将网络舆情中网民群体行为转变过程看作相应舆情问题空间中状态随时间的连续转换过程，设计突发事件中网民群体负面情感SOAR Agent模型，包括网民Agent的工作记忆、长期记忆、决策过程、学习机制，构建网民群体行为转换规则库和相应算法。在此基础上，设计仿真实验，结合典型网络舆情事件案例，对政府不同应急措施下微博用户群体行为演变过程进行建模。实证结果表明，基于网民群体负面情感的建模，可以分析和预测在不同网络舆情阶段、不同政府应急响应措施下网民群体的行为决策规律。     

基于后悔理论和DEMATEL的语言型多属性决策方法

针对目前语言型多属性决策方法大多基于期望效用理论且不考虑指标间影响关系的不足，提出了一种将后悔理论和决策试验与评价试验法相结合的语言型多属性决策方法。首先，依据后悔理论的思想，定义了语言后悔-欣喜函数，给出了方案感知效用值的计算公式；然后，利用决策试验与评价试验法分析指标间的影响关系，给出了基于语言DEMATEL的指标权重确定方法，再通过指标总容量最大优化模型给出了基于注水原理的指标权重确定方法，并在此基础上求解方案的综合感知效用值，据此对方案进行排序择优；最后，通过两个应用实例来验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。实例结果表明，由于该方法同时考虑了决策者的心理行为和指标间的影响关系，因此可使决策结果更加贴近现实且更为可靠。     

基于创新扩散与创新抵制理论的共享经济信任机制

融合创新扩散和创新抵制理论,将创新扩散过程分为认知和说服、决策和实践、确认三大阶段,创新抵制分为四种类型,并基于制度型信任、过程型信任和特质型信任,搭建了共享经济信任机制的理论模型。     

基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策方法

研究一种基于动态参考点的多阶段随机多准则决策方法。考虑多阶段决策过程中决策者的风险偏好,建立了基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策分析框架,提出了一种基于阶段发展特征的动态参考点设置方法;构建准则权重的目标规划模型,结合阶段参考点动态变化的特征测算各阶段备选方案的综合前景值;设计方案综合前景值的范围估算模型,以反映决策风险对评价结果的影响;案例研究验证了上述方法的可行性和实际效果。     

考虑后悔规避的灰色群体偏离靶心度决策方法

针对指标值、指标权重以及状态概率均为区间灰数的风险型多指标群决策问题，考虑决策者的后悔规避的心理行为，提出基于后悔理论和区间灰数信息的群体偏离靶心度决策方法。该方法将后悔理论融入到群决策过程中，建立了各决策者的综合灰色感知效用矩阵，由此定义了群体灰色正负靶心以及灰色群体偏离靶心度；以灰色群体偏离靶心度综合值最大化为目标、同时结合极大熵原理构建优化模型并解出最优专家权重向量，利用灰色群体偏离靶心度大小对方案进行排序；最后，通过具体算例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

基于Agent的辩论谈判过程建模与系统实现

将基于Agent的辩论谈判划分为三个主要阶段,针对其中最为重要的辩论谈判中期进行研究.将其划分为辩论和反辩论这两个子过程.结合人际辩论谈判策略和形式逻辑理论,将这两个子过程进一步分类,并建立相关模型.根据人际辩论谈判的交互,对辩论谈判流程进行详细分析,设计并实现了相关的系统--基于Agent间辩论的汽配(汽车零配件)交易自动谈判系统原型,从计算机实现的角度对模型进行了验证.     

网络购物中消费者决策行为模型的构建

本文基于技术接受模型、期望确认理论、感知风险和信誉信任建立了网络购物中消费者决策行为的动态模型,对消费者决策过程中各个阶段的影响因素进行分析,提出购物后的满意度对再次购买决策具有反馈作用.     

基于前景理论的多阶段混合信息决策方法

针对属性值为混合信息的多阶段决策问题,考虑决策者风险偏好态度,提出一种新的基于动态参考点的前景理论决策方法。通过定义直觉模糊熵,将混合信息一致化为信息效用值,并在传统单阶段参考点设置方法的基础上引入目标参考点,综合发展状态和发展趋势计算得到具有决策者风险偏好波动特点的动态参考点;进一步通过熵权法确定属性的权重范围,并构建考虑偏差度的目标优化模型,在引入前景理论的基础上测算各备选方案的动态前景值。将该决策方法应用到商业银行对小微企业贷款融资的选择案例中,对比分析说明方法的合理性和可行性。     

创业型领导的概念、维度与影响机制综述

创业型领导作为创新创业和领导力领域的交叉点,能适应新型商业环境,是初创企业应对不确定性环境的有效领导方式。在既有成果中,主要有四个视角的创业型领导模型:基于不同文化背景、特质论的创业型领导五维度模型,基于综合评价的创业型领导四维度模型,基于核心目标的创业型领导单维度模型。创业型领导的影响机制主要体现在组织层面和员工个体层面上。未来应加强基于企业生命周期理论、员工个体行为视角、中国本土化视角的创业型领导研究。     

“I feel and think,therefore I am”: An Affect-Cognitive Theory of management decisions

I propose an Affect-Cognitive Theory to comprehensively understand how decisions occur in organizations. To this aim, I first review the assumptions of sensemaking and decision-making streams of research, especially the influence of bounded rationality, affective states and their relationships with cognition; then, I integrate them on the common basis of socially situated cognition. This new theory emphasizes the role of affective states in determining/being determined by cognition and its errors, pointing out decision makers’ affect as the result of multi-level adaptations to the physical and social environment. Management decisions are path dependent but not immutable; they, indeed, bank on the predominant feeling resulting from the modifying interactions and regulations of decision makers with their physical and social environment. Here, decision makers are proposed as “emotional cognizers” overcoming the thinking-feeling dichotomy that has often featured in the study of management decisions. This theory is beneficial for behavioral strategy, offering the needed assumptions to intertwine human cognition, emotions, and social behavior.     

Approaching management and organization paradoxes paradoxically: The case for the tetralemma as an expansive encasement strategy

The field of paradox studies keeps struggling to put the notion of paradox into the very centre of organizational life and managerial decision-making, with mixed success. We argue that this research ambition can be realized much more effectively by anchoring the field in three interrelated conceptual approaches which build on paradox as the paradigmatic point of departure. These approaches include Spencer Brown’s form calculus, Niklas Luhmann’s systems and organization theory, and the traditional Indian logical construct of tetralemma. In the proposed argument, paradox constitutes the very identity of organizations as (re-entries of) distinctions drawn in the environment; it is actualized in every act of organizational decision communication, as well as in the process of the continual vanishing and renewal of such acts. In this conception of organizational life, the key challenge is to debunk false distinctions by using tetralemmatization strategies that entail a radical questioning of the problematic observational perspectives.     

Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems

We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two methods for treating the uncertainty and dependency information within the SMAA-2 multi-criteria decision aid method. The first method applies directly the discrete sample generated by the simulation model. The second method is based on using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We demonstrate the methods using a decision support model for a retailer operating in the deregulated European electricity market.     

The Greater Ability of Graphical Versus Numerical Displays to Increase Risk Avoidance Involves a Common Mechanism

By displaying a risk reduction of 50% graphically rather than numerically, Stone, Yates, and Parker significantly increased professed risk-avoidant behavior. The current experiments replicated this effect at various risk ratios. Specifically, participants were willing to spend more money to reduce a risk when the risk information was displayed by asterisks rather than by numbers for risk-reduction ratios ranging from 3% to 97%. Transforming the amount participants were willing to spend to logarithms significantly improved a linear fit to the data, suggesting that participants convert this variable within the decision-making process. Moreover, a log-linear model affords an exceptional fit to both the graphical and numerical data, suggesting that a graphical presentation elicits the same decision-making mechanism as does the numerical display. In addition, the data also suggest that each person removed from harm is weighted more by some additional factor in the graphical compared to the numerical presentations.     

Understanding the Participation of Critical Task Specialists in Strategic Decision Making*

This paper explores the role of critical task specialists in strategic decision making and presents a theoretical model relating critical task specialist participation in decision making to the organization's overall strategy and the nature of the decision. This exploratory study examines scope and intensity of physician participation in hospital decision making. Intensity of critical task specialist participation is explained by content of the decision and by the organization's strategy, while scope of participation is explained by decision content. The findings suggest the need for more complex models of participation than are normally used in decision-making research. The findings also suggest that executives, in managing strategic decision-making processes, should pay attention to questions of both scope and intensity of participation. The results suggest that critical task specialists play a different role in the decision process, depending on specific decision content and organization strategy.     

Doing something about the weather

Recent developments in weather forecasting have created the potential for the operations research and management science (OR/MS) community to have a tremendous impact in distilling weather information into valuable decision tools. Weather-sensitive applications include transport, electric utilities, agriculture, and public emergency management. This article surveys existing research and practice using OR/MS tools to integrate weather forecasts in decision-making. Because the conditions that created the potential for OR/MS contributions—in particular an explosion in the amount of relevant forecast data—are quite recent, the amount of existing OR/MS work is modest. This article also describes promising but unexplored research opportunities for the OR/MS community.     

Structuring Conflict in Individual,Face-to-Face,and Computer-Mediated Group Decision Making: Carping Versus Objective Devil's Advocacy*

Researchers and practitioners have long been interested in the effects of cognitive conflict techniques on individual and group decision making. One widely used and studied technique, devil's advocacy (DA), has been found to enhance decision-making performance for both individuals and groups. Devil's advocacy begins with a recommended decision, followed by a critique of the decision that questions its assumptions. Researchers have not yet examined the effects of the objectivity of the devil's advocacy comments in computer-mediated environments. This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment that focused on this question by comparing the effects of an objective, nonemotional DA to an emotional, “carping” DA within individuals and groups using either computer-mediated or face-to-face communication. In a manner consistent with prior research, both DA treatments were operationalized through the use of paper-based consulting reports. The results suggest that individuals and computer-mediated groups develop and consider more solution alternatives than face-to-face groups, and that subjects given the objective DA treatment produce higher quality decisions than those given the carping DA treatment. Face-to-face groups in the carping DA treatment considered the fewest alternative solutions in their decision-making process, reached the lowest solution quality, yet reached decision consensus in the fewest voting rounds. The practical implications of the results suggest that questioning statements made by a devil's advocate should be objective, regardless of group communication condition. Carping devil's advocacy appears to stifle group decision outcomes when groups are using face-to-face communication.     

The constructive aspect of political behavior in strategic decision-making: The role of diversity

While there have been extensive empirical and theoretical investigations on political behavior, most previous empirical studies have focused on political behavior as a negative force. In order to extend prior research, this study reconciles the upper echelons theory with the broaden-and-build theory and the work of the positive organizational behavior movement to investigate the antecedents and effects of constructive politics. It explores how different aspects of diversity influence constructive politics and the extent to which the latter contribute to decision performance, namely, decision success and decision pace. Data were drawn from 200 survey respondents in Dubai. The results supported not only the role of constructive politics in decision performance but also the role of demographic and competency diversity in constructive politics. The current research contributes to the exploration of constructive politics in decision-making and raises additional questions in an attempt to supply, with related research, significant missing portions of the political behavior story.     

基于多主体仿真的大群体应急决策风险致因分析

大群体应急决策风险来源众多，且对决策的影响不容忽视。本文从个体因素和群体因素两方面对大群体应急决策风险进行系统识别，并将各风险因素与两类群体效应（认知冲突和关系冲突）进行关联，建立大群体应急决策风险致因体系。在此基础上，设置由个体认可度、群体结构、沟通方式、决策策略和外部影响组成的仿真变量，然后基于观点动力学利用Netlogo工具建立大群体应急决策风险致因多主体仿真模型，最后通过案例模拟得出各风险因素致因机理的一般规律。仿真结果表明：控制高认可度决策主体的比例，增加聚集间交互，采取必要的预见性措施，对降低决策风险，提高决策共识速度，应对决策环境的高动态性具有积极作用。研究有助于掌握大群体应急决策风险因素的组成及其影响规律，为应急决策的策略引导提供参考和借鉴。