中国基础研究国际合作的科学计量测度与评价

基于《科学引文索引》(SCI)数据系统创建了中国与 33个国家 (地区 )国际合作论文数据库及计算机检索统计系统 ,采用规范的国际合作计量测度指标 ,从六个方面 ,即国际合作论文的增长及学科分布、各学科领域科学产出的国际合作依存度比较、基础研究国际合作重要伙伴的国别分布、各学科领域国际合作重要伙伴的国别分布、中国与若干代表性国家 (地区 )合作研究的重点学科分布、参与国际合作研究的中国重要科研机构排序 ,首次对中国基础研究国际合作的现状进行了系统的科学计量测度与评价 ,并提出了若干政策建议 .研究成果已在国家基础研究国际合作“十五”计划和长远规划的制定工作中得到应用     

A bibliometric analysis of operations research and management science

Bibliometric analysis is the quantitative study of bibliographic material. It provides a general picture of a research field that can be classified by papers, authors and journals. This paper presents a bibliometric overview of research published in operations research and management science in recent decades. The main objective of this study is to identify some of the most relevant research in this field and some of the newest trends according to the information found in the Web of Science database. Several classifications are made, including an analysis of the most influential journals, the two hundred most cited papers of all time and the most productive and influential authors. The results obtained are in accordance with the common wisdom, although some variations are found.     

Journal of International Management: A 25-year review using bibliometric analysis

The Journal of International Management (JIM) is a leading international academic journal in the field of international business. This study presents a retrospect of the publications in JIM for the last 25 years (as JIM was founded in 1995) through a bibliometric methodology using the Scopus database and Web of Science. The study graphically maps the bibliographic material using VOS viewer software and applies co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and co-occurrence of author keywords. We identify that the journal has expanded consistently and steadily in terms of both number of publications and citations. The collaboration network has expanded over the years, and the geographical focus is more global, encompassing Asia and Oceania. Bibliographic coupling of JIM publications reveals several distinct, major themes in the international management/business domain. Conventional international management themes that have emerged include market entry modes, globalization, international human resource management, cross-cultural management/leadership, and expatriate management. New emerging themes include emerging markets, global sourcing, innovation performance, digital firms, diversity of global teams, internationalization in uncertain environments, and virtual teams. A summary of the shifting research trends and themes in the discipline and their development is presented in this review, culminating in future directions for prospective publishers of JIM.     

基于管理类国际权威期刊的中国管理科学与工程学科研究现状分析

基于管理科学与工程学科2010~2019年发表在46份国际权威期刊上的13391篇论文数据,利用文献计量学分析方法,从文献发表记录和基金资助文献两个维度对管理科学与工程学科19个领域的研究现状进行分析。研究结果表明:近10年来,管理科学与工程学科的研究热点主要集中在“博弈论”“创新”“定价”“项目管理”“动态规划”和“供应链管理”等方向。美国、中国、英国、加拿大、德国的发文量排名前5位。在发文量最多的5个国家中,中国国家自然科学基金委员会资助的论文数量排名第一位,且信息系统与管理、管理系统工程是获得资助最多的领域。此外,在国家自然科学基金资助项目中,“供应链”是最热门的主题,“交通管理”和“优化”等主题受到较大关注。在中国大陆机构中,香港城市大学、香港科技大学、香港理工大学、香港中文大学和清华大学的发文量位居前5位。     

Managing Risk: A Joint U.S.-German Perspective

Ideas from a USA-FRG conference on risk management are presented. In general, the difficulties confronted by risk management authorities in the two countries are similar, from discovering important risks at an early stage to setting acceptable goals. Government regulation is overburdened and somewhat inefficient in both countries, leading to greater search for alternatives. The many differences in approach between the two countries can inform both. German risk management is done largely through negotiations among the affected parties; when this does not resolve a dispute, a specialized administrative court takes charge. In both countries nonregulatory methods of managing risk should be enhanced and given a larger role. A matrix of risk management method versus criteria proved stimulating in comparing and ranking approaches. The conceptual differences between managing discrete events (auto crashes, boiler explosions, etc.) and chronic exposures have not been appreciated. Although uncertainty and probability are involved in both, there are qualitative differences in both analysis and management. Public perceptions of risk and the role these should play have been characterized by "objectivist" and "subjectivist" positions. In the former view, risks are subject to analysis, are calculable, and the public must be educated to accept the conclusions of experts. In the latter view what people perceive is what is most important, both psychologically and politically, and the risk experts must understand public fears and desires. These are important opportunities for cross cultural studies.     

The [R]Evolving Relationship Between Risk Assessment and Risk Management

In Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment, the National Research Council recommends improvements in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's approach to risk assessment. The recommendations aim to increase the utility of these assessments, embedding them within a new risk‐based decision‐making framework. The framework involves first identifying the problem and possible options for addressing it, conducting related analyses, then reviewing the results and making the risk management decision. Experience with longstanding requirements for regulatory impact analysis provides insights into the implementation of this framework. First, neither the Science and Decisions framework nor the framework for regulatory impact analysis should be viewed as a static or linear process, where each step is completed before moving on to the next. Risk management options are best evaluated through an iterative and integrative procedure. The extent to which a hazard has been previously studied will strongly influence analysts’ ability to identify options prior to conducting formal analyses, and these options will be altered and refined as the analysis progresses. Second, experience with regulatory impact analysis suggests that legal and political constraints may limit the range of options assessed, contrary to both existing guidance for regulatory impact analysis and the Science and Decisions recommendations. Analysts will need to work creatively to broaden the range of options considered. Finally, the usefulness of regulatory impact analysis has been significantly hampered by the inability to quantify many health impacts of concern, suggesting that the scientific improvements offered within Science and Decisions will fill an crucial research gap.     

Visualizing the landscape and evolution of leadership research

Complementing prior quantitative and qualitative reviews of the leadership literature, we conduct a bibliometric analysis of leadership articles. Our bibliometric review provides a different perspective by portraying the landscape and developmental trajectory of leadership research over time via co-citation and co-occurrence analyses. Using a scientific visualization tool CiteSpace and 6528 leadership works collected from the Web of Science database from 1990 to 2017, we detect and visualize the landscape of leadership research and track how this landscape has evolved. After mapping the landscape, we discuss the insights gleaned from our bibliometric review, with a focus on open questions, future research directions, and implications. In doing so, our review provides readers with a systematic understanding of the development of the leadership field and a roadmap to spark leadership research and move this literature forward.     

Improving fire risk communication between authorities and micro-entrepreneurs: A mental models study of Ghanaian central market fires

This study conceptualizes how fire management authorities can empower nonexpert public to participate in fire risk communication processes and increase their own responsibilities for managing fire preventive, protective and recovery processes effectively. Drawing narratives from 10 disaster management experts working at government institutions and nine micro-entrepreneurs operating self-sustaining businesses in different merchandized lines in Ghana, we analyzed the data thematically and explored new insights on mental models to generate a two-way fire risk communication model. The findings suggest that fire management authorities planned fire disasters at the strategic level, collaborated with multiple stakeholders, disseminated information through many risk communication methods, and utilized their capabilities to manage fire at the various stages of fire risk communication, but the outcomes were poor. The micro-entrepreneurs sought to improve fire management outcomes through attitude change, law enforcement actions, strengthened security and better public trust building. The study has implications for policymakers, governments, and risk communication authorities of developing countries to strengthen their fire disaster policies to minimize commercial fire incidents and address the damaging effects of fire on people's livelihoods, businesses, properties, and environments. Our proposed two-way fire risk communication model is a new theoretical lens for experts and the nonexpert public to assess each other's beliefs about risk information and manage fire risk communication effectively at all stages.     

Reflections on Risk Perception and Policy1,2

This paper looks critically at the emergence and present status of risk analysis with the aim of assessing its usefulness for policy decisions on risk regulation and the acceptability of risk-bearing innovations. The authors adopt a personal narrative to illustrate their own involvement in risk research and to comment on empirical trends that have resulted in the current fashion for risk workshops. The second part of the paper confronts specific issues in risk research. These are not new problems-indeed several of the questions asked have been taken directly from a list used to structure a recent risk seminar; but the stand taken here is rather less conciliatory than is usual when these issues are discussed. The pessimistic message of this paper is that risk research, especially in the area of risk perception, is being used as a panacea with which to attempt to remedy what are essentially societal and political matters. Risk research is being used as a tool in a discourse which is not concerned with risks per se, nor with the cognitive processes by which people misperceive the risks of new technologies, but whose hidden agenda is the legitimacy of decision-making institutions and the equitable distribution of hazards and benefits. The authors take a subjectivist view, not just of risk but in general, and query the natural science approach to risk perception, with its assumption that universal dimensions of risk perception can be discovered and used in policy-making and setting regulatory standards. Although it is possible to collect subjective data on the wider meanings that risks and benefits associated with technological innovations have for lay publics, the interpretation and recombination of these data into useful policy guidelines is seen as fraught with technical and, above all, political problems.     

Perception and Communication of Flood Risks: A Systematic Review of Empirical Research

Flood hazards are the most common and destructive of all natural disasters. For decades, experts have been examining how flood losses can be mitigated. Just as in other risk domains, the study of risk perception and risk communication has gained increasing interest in flood risk management. Because of this research growth, a review of the state of the art in this domain is believed necessary. The review comprises 57 empirically based peer‐reviewed articles on flood risk perception and communication from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The characteristics of these articles are listed in a comprehensive table, presenting research design, research variables, and key findings. From this review, it follows that the majority of studies are of exploratory nature and have not applied any of the theoretical frameworks that are available in social science research. Consequently, a methodological standardization in measuring and analyzing people's flood risk perceptions and their adaptive behaviors is hardly present. This heterogeneity leads to difficulties in comparing results among studies. It is also shown that theoretical and empirical studies on flood risk communication are nearly nonexistent. The article concludes with a summary on methodological issues in the fields of flood‐risk perception and flood‐risk communication and proposes an agenda for future research.     

Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk management quality using structural equation modeling techniques (SEM), and to examine the extent to which the influence of these factors is country-specific (comparing respondents from Denmark, Germany, Greece, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom). A survey was developed to model the factors that drive consumer evaluations of food risk management practices and their relative importance (n= 2,533 total respondents). The measurement scales included in the structural model were configurally and metrically invariant across countries. Results show that some factors appear to drive perceptions of effective food risk management in all the countries studied, such as proactive consumer protection, which was positively related to consumers' evaluation of food risk management quality, while opaque and reactive risk management was negatively related to perceived food risk management quality. Other factors appeared to apply only in certain countries. For example, skepticism in risk assessment and communication practices was negatively related to food risk management quality, particularly so in the UK. Expertise of food risk managers appeared to be a key factor in consumers' evaluation of food risk management quality in some countries. However, trust in the honesty of food risk managers did not have a significant effect on food risk management quality. From the results, policy implications for food risk management are discussed and important directions for future research are identified.     

Erfassung betriebswirtschaftlich relevanter Zeitschriften in den ISI-Datenbanken sowie der Scopus-Datenbank

Zusammenfassung  Publikations- und Zitationsindizes k?nnen insbesondere zur Quellenerschlie?ung und Forschungsevaluation genutzt werden. Die Eignung entsprechender Indizes zur ad?quaten Erfüllung dieser Funktionen h?ngt ma?geblich von der Auswahl der indexierten Publikationen ab. In diesem Beitrag wird die Publikationsauswahl des Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), des Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-X) und der Datenbank Scopus aus Sicht der deutschsprachigen Betriebswirtschaftslehre analysiert. Als Basis für die Untersuchung dienen die Ergebnisse des VHB-JOURQUAL. Neben einem Gesamtüberblick zur Erfassung betriebswirtschaftlich relevanter Zeitschriften in den Datenbanken wird auch die Abdeckung einzelner betriebswirtschaftlicher Forschungsfelder untersucht. Da die Nutzung der Indizes mit einigen Kosten für den Erwerb entsprechender Lizenzen verbunden ist, erfolgt darüber hinaus eine vergleichende Analyse von SSCI, SCI-X und Scopus hinsichtlich der Zeitschriftenabdeckung. Aufgrund der internationalen Ausrichtung der betrachteten Zitationsindizes wird die Untersuchung zus?tzlich auf ein internationales Zeitschriftenranking ausgedehnt.

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Acquisition of economic journals in the ISI-databases and in Scopus

Summary  Publication- and citation-indices are especially used for searching literature and evaluating research performance. Their suitability strongly depends on the publications taken into account. In this paper we analyse the selection of publications in Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-X) and Scopus for G erman speaking researchers of business economics. Therewith, the VHB-JOURQUAL provides a basis for our analysis. In addition to an overview of economic relevant journals in the indices we analyse the coverage of special fields of business economics. Due to the fact that using such indices is very expensive, we compare SSCI, SCI-X and Scopus concerning their coverage of journals. As the indices are of international orientation, we enlarge the analysis onto an international ranking of publications.

     

Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of avian influenza in Spain

Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries.     

International Political Risk Management: Perspectives,Approaches and Emerging Agendas

This paper reviews the extant and emerging perspectives on, and approaches to, political risk management, particularly in the context of foreign direct investment. The authors identify and classify the various theoretical lenses in the domain of political risk management, and suggest a future research agenda. The paper contributes by conceptually categorizing and mapping the extant research onto three approaches to the management of political risk. Through conducting a narrative literature review, the authors suggest three theoretical perspectives on political risk management: institutions; resources and capabilities; and resource dependence. They argue that the institutions approach to political risk management is reactive, responding to external stimuli, whereas the resources‐ and capabilities‐based approach is proactive, preparing and acting in anticipation. The resource dependence domain offers an intermediate approach – the active management of political risk. The authors also suggest that the effectiveness of the domains’ approaches may vary across different national contexts.     

债务抵押债券（CDO）定价模型研究综述

作为近10年来发展最为迅速的信用衍生产品之一,CDO已在国外银行等金融机构的风险管理过程中得到了广泛的应用,美国近期次级贷款市场的不良表现致使CDO等金融衍生品的设计与定价受到更强烈的关注。系统介绍和比较分析了业界普遍采用的BET、Copula、因子Copula等CDO基本定价模型;简要回顾了当前理论界的研究热点——因子Copula模型和动态模型的研究进展;对未来可能的研究趋势作了展望。     

Forty years of European Management Journal: A bibliometric overview

The European Management Journal (EMJ) is a renowned peer-reviewed journal of international reputation in the fields of business and management research since 1982. EMJ publishes original and high-quality conceptual, empirical, and review research papers that contribute to the advancement of the body of knowledge and its application in the field. Until the time of this overview, 2164 papers (including 2004 articles, 96 editorials, 28 conference papers, 27 notes, and 3 short surveys) have been published in the journal between 1982 and 2020. We analyzed all these articles using bibliometric techniques to examine the impact of the journal’s publications, most productive and influential authors, and their contributions in the field of business and management research. Co-authorship among the top authors, co-occurrences of the topics, co-citations of the journals, bibliographic coupling of the authors, affiliating institutes, and countries were analyzed by applying network analysis techniques using VOSviewer software. The advancement of research in the field of management during the last decade is also critically discussed in order to understand recent developments in the field of business and management research.     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.     

The Dynamics of Risk Perception: How Does Perceived Risk Respond to Risk Events?

This paper examines the relationship between perceived risk and experience. This research addresses the processes by which people learn about risk and choose among real life prospects with associated uncertainties, risks and benefits. By comparing the impact of acute risk events with that of chronic risk events on public perception of risk during and after the events, this research focuses on the learning processes that characterize what kinds of risk events alter the perception of risk. Comparing materialized hazards at existing facilities with the risks associated with potential facilities, this research addresses risk choices among real life prospects. This study uses a classic pre-post quasi-experimental design. Surveys conducted in the Spring of 1992 on perceived and acceptable risk in Odessa and La Porte, Texas were conducted prior to risk events. Respondents from that survey were re-interviewed in the Spring of 1993 after the risk events to form a panel design. This paper analyzes the affect of risk events on perceived risk and the implications of these experiences for public policy concerning technological risk. The empirical results suggest that the social processes that construct and maintain risk in the public eye are at least as important as, if not more important than, the physical and psychological dimensions of risk.     

金融机构系统性风险溢出和系统性风险贡献——基于滚动窗口动态Copula模型双时变相依视角

本文以33家上市金融机构为研究样本，利用滚动窗口动态Copula模型对金融机构与金融系统之间相依关系的时变结构与时变系数进行双时变拟合，测度了金融机构的系统性风险溢出和贡献，从宏观、行业和机构层面分析了系统性风险贡献的影响因素。研究发现：证券类机构贡献了最多的系统性风险，而银行类机构对整个金融系统最具有潜在威胁性；金融机构与金融系统的相依结构决定了机构风险的外溢程度，而金融机构与金融系统之间相依程度以及系统自身波动性会显著影响整个系统的系统性风险；中国金融风险与财政风险之间存在相互转换的现象，化解系统性风险的根本办法是不断改善金融生态环境。本文可能的贡献有两点：第一，建立具有双时变特征的滚动窗口动态Copula模型，使模型设定和估计结果更接近真实情形；第二，从宏观、行业、机构三个层面分析机构系统性风险贡献的影响因素，这有助于从系统性风险产生的源头进行风险防控，供监管部门决策参考。     

Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy

Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and overt conflict have become pervasive. Risk-perception research has recently begun to provide a new perspective on this problem. Distrust in risk analysis and risk management plays a central role in this perspective. According to this view, the conflicts and controversies surrounding risk management are not due to public ignorance or irrationality but, instead, are seen as a side effect of our remarkable form of participatory democracy, amplified by powerful technological and social changes that systematically destroy trust. Recognizing the importance of trust and understanding the "dynamics of the system" that destroys trust has vast implications for how we approach risk management in the future.