Short-term impact of green certificates and CO2 emissions trading in the Swedish district heating sector

Swedish district-heating (DH) systems use a wide range of energy sources and technologies for heat-and-power generation. This provides the DH utilities with major flexibility in changing their fuel and technology mix when the economic conditions for generation change. Two recently introduced policy instruments have changed the DH utilities’ costs for generation considerably; the tradable green-certificate (TGC) scheme introduced in 2003 in Sweden, and the tradable greenhouse-gas emission permit (TEP) scheme introduced in the EU on January 1, 2005. The objective of this study is to analyse how these two trading schemes impact on the operation of the Swedish DH sector in terms of changes in CHP generation, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs. The analysis was carried out by comparing the most cost-effective operation for the DH utilities, with and without, the two trading schemes applied, using a model that handles the Swedish DH-sector system-by-system. It was found that the volume of renewable power generated in CHP plants only increased slightly owing to the TGC scheme. The TGC and the TEP schemes in force together, however, nearly doubled the renewable power-generation. CO₂ emissions from the DH sector may either increase or decrease depending on the combination of TGC and TEP prices. The overall CO₂ emissions from the European power-generation sector would, however, be reduced for all price combinations assuming that increased Swedish CHP generation replaces coal-condensing power (coal-fired plants with power generation only) in other European countries. The trading schemes also lower the operational costs of the DH sector since the cost increase owing to the use of more expensive fuels and the purchase of TEPs is outweighed by the increased revenues from sales of electricity and TGCs.     

Cost effects of international trade in meeting EU renewable electricity targets

The European market for renewable electricity received a major stimulus from the adoption of the Directive on the Promotion of Renewable Electricity. The Directive specifies the indicative targets for electricity supply from renewable energy sources (RES-E) to be reached in European Union (EU) Member States in the year 2010. It also requires Member States to certify the origin of their renewable electricity production. This article presents a first EU-wide quantitative evaluation of the effects of meeting the targets, using an EU-wide system for tradable green certificates (TGC). We calculate the equilibrium price of green certificates and identify which countries are likely to export or import certificates. Cost advantages of participating in such an EU-wide trading scheme are determined for each of the Member States. Moreover, we identify which choice of technologies results in meeting targets at least costs. Results are obtained from a model that quantifies the effects of achieving the RES-E targets in the EU with and without trade. The article provides a brief insight in this model as well as the methodology that was used to specify cost potential curves for renewable electricity in each of the 15 EU Member States. Model calculations show that within the EU-wide TGC system, the total production costs of the last option needed to satisfy the overall EU RES-E target equals 9.2 eurocent/kWh. Assuming that the production price of electricity on the European power market would equal 3 eurocent/kWh in the year 2010, the indicative green certificate price equals 6.2 eurocent/kWh. We conclude that implementation of an EU-wide TGC system is a cost-efficient way of stimulating renewable electricity supply.     

基于可再生能源经济调度时序模拟的绿色证书市场交易研究

梳理可再生能源发电商、常规能源发电商与售电公司等交易主体之间的电力、绿色证书供需关系,以各发电商的利益最大化为目标,建立考虑绿色证书的能源经济调度模型,求解消纳保障机制下发电商电力调度及证书交易策略;通过算例分析说明了绿色证书机制提高可再生能源发电商收益的有效性,消纳责任权重对于绿证价格变化、市场力抑制等市场良性运营具有重要作用。     

Assessment of integration of different biomass gasification alternatives in a district-heating system

With increasingly stringent CO₂ emission reduction targets, incentives for efficient use of limited biomass resources increase. Technologies for gasification of biomass may then play a key role given their potential for high electrical efficiency and multiple outputs; not only electricity but also bio transport fuels and district heat. The aim of this study is to assess the economic consequences and the potential for CO₂ reduction of integration of a biomass gasification plant into a district-heating (DH) system. The study focuses on co-location with an existing natural gas combined cycle heat and power plant in the municipal DH system of Göteborg, Sweden. The analysis is carried out using a systems modelling approach. The so-called MARTES model is used. MARTES is a simulating, DH systems supply model with a detailed time slice division. The economic robustness of different solutions is investigated by using different sets of parameters for electricity price, fuel prices and policy tools. In this study, it is assumed that not only tradable green certificates for electricity but also tradable green certificates for transport fuels exist. The economic results show strong dependence on the technical solutions and scenario assumptions but in most cases a stand-alone SNG-polygeneration plant with district-heat delivery is the cost-optimal solution. Its profitability is strongly dependent on policy tools and the price relation between biomass and fossil fuels. Finally, the results show that operation of the biomass gasification plants reduces the (DH) system's net emissions of CO₂.     

On the potential trade-offs between energy supply and end-use technologies for residential heating

In Sweden, where district heating accounts for a significant share of residential heating, it has been argued that improvements in end-use energy efficiency may be counter-productive since such measures reduce the potential of energy efficient combined heat and power production. In this paper we model how the potential trade-offs between energy supply and end-use technologies depend on climate policy and energy prices. The model optimizes a combination of energy efficiency measures, technologies and fuels for heat supply and district heating extensions over a 50 year period. We ask under what circumstances improved end-use efficiency may be cost-effective in buildings connected to district heating? The answer hinges on the available technologies for electricity production. In a scenario with no alternatives to basic condensing electricity production, high CO₂ prices result in very high electricity prices, high profitability of combined heat and power production, and little incentive to reduce heat demand in buildings with district heating. In contrast, in a scenario where electricity production alternatives with low CO₂ emissions are available, the electricity price will level out at high CO₂ prices. This gives heat prices that increase with the CO₂ price and make end-use efficiency cost-effective also in buildings with district heating.     

Tradable certificates for renewable electricity and energy savings

Tradable green certificates (TGCs) schemes have been developed and tested in several European countries to foster market-driven penetration of renewables. These certificates guarantee that a specific volume of electricity is generated from renewable-energy source (RES). More recently certificates (tradable white certificates (TWCs)) for the electricity saved by demand-side energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) have been introduced in some European countries. Recent advances in information and communication technology have opened up new possibilities for improving energy efficiency and increasing utilization of RESs. Use of technological resources such as the Internet and smart metering can permit real-time issuing and trading of TGCs. These technologies could also permit issuing of TWC. This paper reviews current renewable TGC and TWCs schemes in Europe and describes the possibilities for combining them in an Internet-based system. In the proposed combined tradable certificate scheme, both RESs and demand-side EEMs could bid in real time through the Internet to meet a specific obligation. The energy savings from the demand-side measures would be equivalent to the same amount of green electricity production. The paper describes the needed common targets and obligations, the certificate trading rules and the possible monitoring protocol. In particular, the paper focuses on the TWCs verification issues, including the assessment of the baseline, as these poses additional problems for TWCs compared to TGCs.     

Integration of multiple national markets for electricity: The case of Norway and Sweden

During the second part of the 1990s the Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) countries have created a unique multinational market for electricity. This paper aims to analyse the degree of integration of the different national markets that constitute the Nordic electricity market. In particular the Norwegian and Swedish wholesale and retail electricity markets are analysed. The results suggest that the wholesale markets are well integrated. Thus prices differ significantly only during periods with unusually high or low supply of hydropower. However, the retail markets are not integrated to the same degree. Thus retail prices and trade margins differ significantly. Differences in the national electricity market legislation seem to be a key factor behind these differences.     

Power trade,welfare, and air quality

We use detailed microdata from all generators in the Ontario wholesale electricity market to investigate cross-border electricity trade and its impact on air emissions and welfare (consumer and producer surpluses) in Ontario. Using the technical characteristics of the generators and financial data we run a competition model every hour. We examine how trade expansion across different parts of the interconnected power grid affects the efficiency in the Ontario market. We show that there is a significant welfare gain from power trade. The air emissions savings are also considerable. For instance, when hourly imports double from current levels CO₂ emissions decrease around 13%, and market prices reduce 5.4%. In autarky, CO₂, SO₂, NOx emissions increase 12%, 22%, 16%, resp., the prices go up 5.8%, and the price volatility rises 12%. However, the impact of negative wholesale prices on market outcomes is small.     

White certificate schemes: Economic analysis and interactions with the EU ETS

This paper examines the economic, environmental and distributional impacts of an idealised tradable white certificate (TWC) scheme and shows how the impacts are modified when the scheme operates in parallel with the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). It uses simple graphical techniques to assess whether a TWC scheme will increase, decrease or have an ambiguous effect on electricity demand, wholesale and retail electricity prices, carbon emissions and investment in energy efficiency, paying particular attention to the interpretation of ‘additionality’.     

The future developments of the electricity prices in view of the implementation of the Paris Agreements: Will the current trends prevail,or a reversal is ahead?

We assess the impact on the European electricity market of the European Union “Clean energy for all Europeans” package, which implements the EU Nationally Determined Contribution in Paris COP 21. We focus on the year 2030, which is the year with defined climate targets. For the assessment, we employ a game-theoretic framework of the wholesale electricity market, with high technical detail. The model is applied to two core scenarios, a Base scenario and a Low Carbon scenario to provide insights regarding the future electricity capacity, generation mix, cross-border trade and electricity prices. We also assess three additional variants of the core scenarios concerning different levels of: a) fossil and CO₂ prices; b) additional flexibility provided by batteries; c) market integration. We find that the electricity prices in 2030 substantially increase from today's level, driven by the increase in fuel and CO₂ prices. The flexibility from batteries helps in mitigating the price peaks and the price volatility. The increased low marginal cost electricity generation, the expansion of non-dispatchable and distributed capacities, and the higher market integration further reduce the market power from producers in the electricity markets from today's level.     

A Scandinavian chemical wood pulp mill. Part 1. Energy audit aiming at efficiency measures

A Swedish wood-pulp mill is surveyed in terms of energy supply and use in order to determine the energy-saving potential. Conservation measures are of increasing interest to Swedish industry, as energy prices have continued to rise in recent years. The electricity price particularly increased after the deregulation of the Scandinavian electricity market in 1996. The deregulation expanded to all of the EU in July 2004, which may increase the Swedish electricity price further until it reaches the generally higher European price level. Furthermore, oil prices have increased and the emissions trading scheme for CO₂ adds to the incentive to reduce oil consumption. The energy system at the surveyed pulp mill is described in terms of electricity and process heat production and use. The total energy-saving potential is estimated and some saving points are identified. The heat that today is wasted at the mill has been surveyed in order to find potential for heat integration or heat export. The result shows that the mill probably could become self-sufficient in electricity. Particularly important in that endeavour is updating old pumps.     

Energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills given uncertain climate policy

Energy efficiency measures in pulp mills can potentially reduce the consumption of biofuel, which can instead be exported and used elsewhere. In this paper a methodology is proposed for analysing the robustness of energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills or other industrial process plants equipped with biofuelled combined heat and power units, given uncertain future climate policy. The outlook for biofuel and electricity prices is a key factor for deciding if energy efficiency measures are cost competitive. CO ₂ emission charges resulting from climate policy are internalized and thus included in electricity and biofuel prices. The proposed methodology includes a price-setting model for biofuel that assumes a constant price ratio between biofuel and electricity in the Nordic countries. Thirteen energy efficiency retrofit measures are analysed for an existing Swedish Kraft pulp mill. Special attention is paid to heat-integrated evaporation using excess process heat. Four possible energy market development paths are considered that reflect different climate policies. Pulp mill energy efficiency investments considered are shown to be robust with respect to uncertain climate policy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient power generating portfolio in Brazil: Conciliating cost,emissions and risk

The main purpose of this paper is to assess efficiency of the Brazilian electricity generation mix proposed in the 2020 Decennial Plan for Energy Expansion (DPEE 2020). It evaluates estimated costs, risks and CO₂ emissions following the mean–variance portfolio theory. The efficiency frontier is estimated for three CO₂ prices scenarios: no CO₂ prices, low CO₂ price and high CO₂ price. The planned portfolio in Brazil presented in the DPEE 2020 is relatively close to the efficient frontier, however there is still room for risk mitigation by diversifying the energy portfolio. As there is currently no CO₂ price in Brazil, the tendency is that diversification increases fossil fuel share in the energy mix, but the introduction of a CO₂ price can be an option to promote renewables. This type of large general market framework can contribute to reduce market uncertainties by reducing the level of government′s discretionary activism.     

An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios

The present work concerns a systematic investigation of power sector portfolios through discrete scenarios of electricity and CO₂ allowance prices. The analysis is performed for different prices, from regulated to completely deregulated markets, thus representing different electricity market policies. The modelling approach is based on a stochastic programming algorithm without recourse, used for the optimisation of power sector economics under multiple uncertainties. A sequential quadratic programming routine is applied for the entire investigation period whilst the time-dependent objective function is subject to various social and production constraints, usually confronted in power sectors. The analysis indicated the optimal capacity additions that should be annually ordered from each competitive technology in order to substantially improve both the economy and the sustainability of the system. It is confirmed that higher electricity prices lead to higher financial yields of power production, irrespective of the CO₂ allowance price level. Moreover, by following the proposed licensing planning, a medium-term reduction of CO₂ emissions per MW h by 30% might be possible. Interestingly, the combination of electricity prices subsidisation with high CO₂ allowance prices may provide favourable conditions for investors willing to engage on renewable energy markets.     

Modeling a clean energy standard for electricity: Policy design implications for emissions,supply, prices,and regions

The electricity sector is responsible for roughly 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and a reduction in CO₂ emissions from electricity generation is an important component of the U.S. strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Toward that goal, several proposals for a clean energy standard (CES) have been put forth, including one espoused by the Obama administration that calls for 80% clean electricity by 2035 phased in from current levels of roughly 40%. This paper looks at the effects of such a policy on CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector, the mix of technologies used to supply electricity, electricity prices, and regional flows of clean energy credits. The CES leads to a 30% reduction in cumulative CO₂ emissions between 2013 and 2035 and results in dramatic reductions in generation from conventional coal. The policy also results in fairly modest increases on national electricity prices, but this masks a wide variety of effects across regions.     

Interactions between measures for the support of electricity from renewable energy sources and CO2 mitigation

As Europe wants to move towards a secure, sustainable and competitive energy market, it has taken action, amongst other, to support electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) and to mitigate CO₂ emissions. This paper first qualitatively discusses price- and quantity-based measures for RES-E deployment as well as CO₂ mitigation. Next, a simulation model is developed to quantitatively discuss the effects of a tradable green certificate system, a premium mechanism, a tradable CO₂ allowance system and a CO₂ tax on both RES-E deployment and CO₂ mitigation. A three-regional model implementation representing the Benelux, France and Germany is used. In a first step of simulations, all measures are implemented separately. In a second step, combinations of both RES-E supporting and CO₂ mitigating measures are simulated and discussed. Significant indirect effects are demonstrated, especially for RES-E supporting measures on the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Interactions between different measures show that the price level of quantity-based measures can be strongly influenced.     

Tradable white certificate schemes: what can we learn from tradable green certificate schemes?

In this paper, we analyze the experiences gained from tradable green certificate (TGC) schemes and extract some policy lessons that can lead to a successful design of a market-based approach for energy efficiency improvement, alias tradable white certificate schemes. We use tradable green certificate schemes existing in the Netherlands and Sweden as case studies. Departing from an assessment of both TGC schemes, we identify several institutional and market aspects that have affected their performance. We conduct the analysis by addressing key evaluation criteria (i.e., cost and energy effectiveness, administrative burden, technological innovation, political feasibility, and transaction costs). It is not our intention to demonstrate to the reader a normative aspect of designing tradable white certificate schemes. Rather, we identify some key policy lessons which can be summarized as: a binding long-term target must be clearly expressed in terms of policy time frame and certainty, a proper liquid market must be ensured for tradability of certificates, the scheme should be technology neutral, transaction costs should be kept low, and the energy efficiency target should not only address ‘low hanging fruits’ but also promote innovation.

Biomass gasification in district heating systems – The effect of economic energy policies

Biomass gasification is considered a key technology in reaching targets for renewable energy and CO₂ emissions reduction. This study evaluates policy instruments affecting the profitability of biomass gasification applications integrated in a Swedish district heating (DH) system for the medium-term future (around year 2025). Two polygeneration applications based on gasification technology are considered in this paper: (1) a biorefinery plant co-producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) and district heat; (2) a combined heat and power (CHP) plant using integrated gasification combined cycle technology. Using an optimisation model we identify the levels of policy support, here assumed to be in the form of tradable certificates, required to make biofuel production competitive to biomass based electricity generation under various energy market conditions. Similarly, the tradable green electricity certificate levels necessary to make gasification based electricity generation competitive to conventional steam cycle technology, are identified. The results show that in order for investment in the SNG biorefinery to be competitive to investment in electricity production in the DH system, biofuel certificates in the range of 24–42 EUR/MWh are needed. Electricity certificates are not a prerequisite for investment in gasification based CHP to be competitive to investment in conventional steam cycle CHP, given sufficiently high electricity prices. While the required biofuel policy support is relatively insensitive to variations in capital cost, the required electricity certificates show high sensitivity to variations in investment costs. It is concluded that the large capital commitment and strong dependency on policy instruments makes it necessary that DH suppliers believe in the long-sightedness of future support policies, in order for investments in large-scale biomass gasification in DH systems to be realised.     

Nucs down in Germany—Prices up in Europe?

Current legislation on power production from nuclear energy in Germany defines certain remaining quantities of permitted electricity production for nuclear power plants. These quantities are defined for each nuclear power plant and are measured in TWh. In the discussion about climate protection and market trend of electricity prices, it is regularly stated by policy makers that the nuclear phase-out will result in an increase in electricity prices and CO₂ emissions. As a consequence a revision is proposed, especially from the Liberals (FDP) and Conservatives (CDU). The following article discusses this issue analysing the different options investors and operators under different scenarios have. It shows firstly that both emissions and power prices can indeed increase, and secondly that the mere discussion about potentially reversing the phasing-out decision can lead to an increase in electricity prices as investment behaviour may change based on expectations regarding future regulation. I conclude that – ceteris paribus – the nuclear phase-out is likely to result in an increase in CO₂ emissions and prices.     

Market-specific news and its impact on forward premia on electricity markets

This paper studies the impact of market-specific news on the short-term forward premia on the Nordic electricity market. I show that the short-term premia between the day-ahead and intra-day electricity prices on the Nordic market can be partly explained by the arrival of news specific to the power market. By exploring the types of news, I show that production failures are most important in shaping premia. Production disruptions in coal-powered units are most frequent and have the greatest effect on the differences between the day-ahead and intra-day prices.