试论预警原则与中国海洋渔业资源的可持续利用

预警原则作为一种新颖的环境资源管理手段,其对海洋渔业资源养护的有效性已为一些国际协定和国外立法所确认。适用预警原则应满足以下条件:存在不确定危险;遵循成本收益分析原则、比例原则和非歧视原则;并定期检查、适时调整。目前我国海洋渔业资源管理工作也面临着内外双重压力,有必要在未来制定一部《海洋生物资源养护和管理法》。而当务之急是尽快修订现行《渔业法》,将预警原则确定为我国海洋渔业资源管理的基本原则;同时,还应通过建立综合性海洋管理部门、大量搜集科学信息、拓展群众参与途径、以及根据各海域的具体情况,有针对性地实施预警原则,促进我国海洋渔业资源的可持续利用。     

How can we know a self-driving car is safe?

Self-driving cars promise solutions to some of the hazards of human driving but there are important questions about the safety of these new technologies. This paper takes a qualitative social science approach to the question ‘how safe is safe enough?’ Drawing on 50 interviews with people developing and researching self-driving cars, I describe two dominant narratives of safety. The first, safety-in-numbers, sees safety as a self-evident property of the technology and offers metrics in an attempt to reassure the public. The second approach, safety-by-design, starts with the challenge of safety assurance and sees the technology as intrinsically problematic. The first approach is concerned only with performance—what a self-driving system does. The second is also concerned with why systems do what they do and how they should be tested. Using insights from workshops with members of the public, I introduce a further concern that will define trustworthy self-driving cars: the intended and perceived purposes of a system. Engineers’ safety assurances will have their credibility tested in public. ‘How safe is safe enough?’ prompts further questions: ‘safe enough for what?’ and ‘safe enough for whom?’

     

Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change

Rising expectations about future demand for new technologies increase the incentives for investments in innovation by enlarging payoffs to successful innovations. How well does this notion of “demand-pull” apply to non-incremental technological change when demand is largely attributable to actions by governments? In this case, inventors of the most important inventions did not respond positively to strong demand-pull policies; filing of highly cited patents declined precipitously just as demand for wind power created a multi-billion dollar market. Three explanations for this apparent inconsistency with the demand-pull hypothesis played a role: (1) the rapid convergence on a single dominant design limited the market opportunity for non-incremental technical improvements; (2) even though the policies implemented were stringent enough to stimulate demand, uncertainty in their longevity dampened the incentives for inventions that were likely to take several years to pay off; and (3) alternative explanations, such as declining R&D funding and weakening presidential engagement on energy, appear to have been important.     

On the impact of quantum computing technology on future developments in high-performance scientific computing

Quantum computing technologies have become a hot topic in academia and industry receiving much attention and financial support from all sides. Building a quantum computer that can be used practically is in itself an outstanding challenge that has become the ‘new race to the moon’. Next to researchers and vendors of future computing technologies, national authorities are showing strong interest in maturing this technology due to its known potential to break many of today’s encryption techniques, which would have significant and potentially disruptive impact on our society. It is, however, quite likely that quantum computing has beneficial impact on many computational disciplines. In this article we describe our vision of future developments in scientific computing that would be enabled by the advent of software-programmable quantum computers. We thereby assume that quantum computers will form part of a hybrid accelerated computing platform like GPUs and co-processor cards do today. In particular, we address the potential of quantum algorithms to bring major breakthroughs in applied mathematics and its applications. Finally, we give several examples that demonstrate the possible impact of quantum-accelerated scientific computing on society.     

国外残障儿童受虐问题及其福利政策研究

残障儿童受虐待和忽视的情况比一般儿童受虐待的现象更突出,但目前我国尚未形成健全的残障儿童保护政策和福利政策。在现阶段供给策的改革下,残障儿童的福利政策研究理应得到相应的重视,提高到与社会发展同步发展的新阶段。本文通过梳理国外残障儿童福利体系研究,学习借鉴国外残障儿童福利政策和相关社会工作实践,结合我国实际,提出建立建全我国残障儿童福利政策：充分发挥社会力量参与,将儿童福利政策的设计与家庭支持、专业的社会工作介入、医疗康复、教育等有效结合起来,走向积极的儿童福利。     

创新创业：政策分析框架与案例研究

“创新创业”作为推动未来技术和产业变革的重要方式,引发了关于政策理论构建和实践探索的新思考。本文回顾了当前创新创业政策的研究现状,从技术和市场两个视角定义了“创新创业”,从“政策资源-利益相关者-发展阶段”三个维度构建了创新创业政策分析框架,并以此框架分析了《关于推动创新创业高质量发展打造“双创”升级版的意见》。研究发现：(1)“创新创业”是“基于创新的创业”,既强调新兴技术迭代创新、商业模式创新和政府管理创新,也强调满足当前市场需求或创造未来市场需求。创新创业兼具技术和市场的双重不确定性,前者对创业者把握技术发展趋势的能力提出更高的要求,后者对创业者承担双重不确定性引发的创业风险的能力提出更高的要求。(2)创新创业的政策资源主要包括人才、财税、金融、孵化服务、公共服务,利益相关者主要包括创新创业者和创新创业企业、政府部门、高校和科研机构、金融机构、创新创业服务机构以及大中型企业,发展阶段分为孵化初创期、成长发展期。(3)“双创升级版”政策充分考虑了创新创业的阶段性特征和特定利益相关者需求,其中政府采购等财税政策对创新创业的支持力度较大。本文提出以下政策启示：一是创新创业是高水平创新人...     

英国碳中和战略政策体系研究与启示

英国是碳中和战略行动的倡议者和先行者，深入解析其政策体系特征，对我国推进碳达峰、碳中和（以下简称“双碳”）行动部署具有参考价值。文章在内容分析和扎根理论方法的基础上，设计提出宏观战略（macro-strategy）、中观架构（medium-skeleton）和微观结构（micro-structure）的“3 MS”分析框架，深度挖掘其政策的文本和逻辑特征。研究显示，英国基本形成碳中和战略“1+1+N+X”政策体系，构建了“咨询—决策—执行—评估”战略推进体系，具有中央统筹、机构推进、智库支撑、私营协同的组织架构，以及立法约束、整体部署、任务明确、细化响应、相互支撑、科技引领等政策网络。相比之下，我国在立法保障、推进体系、智库支撑等方面仍存在不足，建议从法律保障、体制机制、实施路径、科技创新、智库支撑等5个维度，针对不同减排部门、不同产业技术，以及政府、行业、企业、社会等多个层面，不断完善我国“1+N”政策体系。     

科学与治理的兴起及其意义

“科学与治理”(scienceandgovernance)议题在近年来日益引起国际政策界和学术界的广泛关注和深入研究,正在成为一个蓬勃发展的前沿课题。本文以发达国家经验为基础,分析了“科学与治理”兴起和发展的动因,把其核心内容归纳为:制度化的咨询、信息公开和预防原则、公众参与以及对研究的规范。科学与治理的兴起表明,要使科学技术对人民生活和社会发展长期有益,一个国家科学技术的发展战略与政策就不再只是包括科学和创新两方面的内容,还要加入第三个因素———“社会”或“公众”,实现科学技术、经济和社会三者的协调发展。     

后常态科学下的公共政策决策——以转基因水稻审批过程为例

以中国转基因水稻审批过程为例,探讨了后常态科学下的中国公共政策决策机制,指出专家委员会的内部咨询模式和技术官僚为主体的内部决策模式存在一定的局限性。之后,对比分析了美国和欧盟的转基因生物管理制度,探索在科学不确定性下公共决策机制的改进方向,即充分的信息公开和广泛的公众参与、政策实施中的审慎预防原则,以及有效的政策纠偏和损害救济机制。     

技术预见对政府科技治理的影响机制研究

从技术预见的形成机制入手,深入分析技术预见的参与主体和理论基础,并从技术预见价值理念转变的视角分析技术预见的形成机制,从事先预防机制、政策制定工具、边际溢出效应等三个方面探讨技术预见对科技治理的影响机制,展现技术预见作为政策工具的价值性、创新性和指导性作用.最后从科技实际需求出发开展技术预见、重视科技人才的培养和引进、...     

Authentication,Privacy, and the Federal E-Government

As federal agencies move toward more sophisticated e-govern- ment offerings, they must consider both policy and operational requirements for electronic authentication (e-authentication). One important consideration in designing and deploying e-authentica- tion solutions is the balance between access, security, authentication, and privacy. Public law and government-wide policy encourage e-government and e-authentication simultaneously with privacy protection, creating policy and operational tensions for e-government efforts. A review of the relevant laws and policies and analyses of the privacy implications of authentication technologies indicates that federal agencies have at least two analytic frameworks for balancing privacy concerns with e-authentication. A framework offered in the 2003 National Research Council report Who Goes There? and the privacy impact analysis requirements of the E-Government Act of 2002 provide e-government projects with the tools for navigating the path between privacy and openness, required by both e-government law and policy.     

创意产业发展过程中政府角色定位研究

市场在创意产业发展初期很难真正发挥对创意资源的有效配置功能,使得政府在创意产业发展中的"市场替代"行为具有一定的合理性。我国创意产业发展特色不突出,政策支持不到位,产业链上游断裂,产业战略联盟不完善。政府必须成为创意产业发展的火车头,规划师,服务者,加强对创意产业发展的扶持与协调。     

山东半岛蓝色经济区经济-环境复合系统仿真与发展对策研究

构建了以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例的经济-环境复合系统发展系统动力学模型,运用VENSIM软件对区域未来发展情景进行定量化动态研究与模拟.通过调节复合系统的决策变量,设定了4种不同的发展情景方案,预测在不同情景方案下山东半岛蓝色经济区的发展状况,得出山东半岛蓝色经济区经济-环境复合系统协调发展的最优方案,为山东半岛蓝色经济区的规划、治理和发展提供决策支持.     

Identity,profiling algorithms and a world of ambient intelligence

The tendency towards an increasing integration of the informational web into our daily physical world (in particular in so-called Ambient Intelligent technologies which combine ideas derived from the field of Ubiquitous Computing, Intelligent User Interfaces and Ubiquitous Communication) is likely to make the development of successful profiling and personalization algorithms, like the ones currently used by internet companies such as Amazon, even more important than it is today. I argue that the way in which we experience ourselves necessarily goes through a moment of technical mediation. Because of this algorithmic profiling that thrives on continuous reconfiguration of identification should not be understood as a supplementary process which maps a pre-established identity that exists independently from the profiling practice. In order to clarify how the experience of one’s identity can become affected by such machine-profiling a theoretical exploration of identity is made (including Agamben’s understanding of an apparatus, Ricoeur’s distinction between idem- and ipse-identity, and Stiegler’s notion of a conjunctive–disjunctive relationship towards retentional apparatuses). Although it is clear that no specific predictions about the impact of Ambient Intelligent technologies can be made without taking more particulars into account, the theoretical concepts are used to describe three general scenarios about the way wherein the experience of identity might become affected. To conclude, I argue that the experience of one’s identity may affect whether the cases of unwarranted discrimination resulting from ubiquitous differentiations and identifications within an Ambient Intelligent environment, will become a matter of societal concern.     

Missions-oriented RD&D institutions in energy between 2000 and 2010: A comparative analysis of China,the United Kingdom,and the United States

In the first decade of the 21st century, governments in many countries around the world expanded or redesigned their support for the development and deployment of advanced energy-supply and energy-demand technologies. By analyzing the institutions that have been created to stimulate energy technology innovation in the United States, the United Kingdom, and China-three countries with very different sizes, political systems and cultures, natural resources, and histories of involvement in the energy sector-this paper highlights how variations in national objectives and industrial and political environments have translated into variations in policy. The analysis shows that the countries’ activities differ in terms of three general elements: whether the government's various activities are coordinated or autonomous, whether the business community is significantly involved in the design and running of the initiatives, and whether the implementing institutions focus on single or multiple missions and innovation types. These differences constitute different types of governments’ attempts to activate the state-industry innovation complex. The paper concludes with a discussion of the trade-offs involved in the design of systems for public support of energy RD&D, points to possible gaps in the government approaches to support energy RD&D, and highlights areas of future research.     

网络安全分析

介绍了网络安全定义及2002年恶意代码和黑客攻击互联网的手段特点；阐述了网络安全防护工作的长期性、动态性；详细说明了网络安全面临的八种攻击方式及防范手段；预测了今后网络可能遭到攻击的方式及相关的应对措施；最后介绍了构架安全网络总的设计原则。     

西部开发必须增加高校学科建设经费投入

论述西部可持续快速发展,必须通过加强西部高校重点学科建设,形成区域高素质人才和科技创新等方面的核心竞争力。认为加快西部高校学科建设,除自身增加经费投入外,迫切需要各级财政给予强有力的经费支持。要从根本上改变目前西部高校学科建设经费投入不足的“瓶颈”,必须树立“科教兴国”的理念,形成科学的资金投入机制,建立有效的资金管理制度,进一步优化财政政策环境,为西部经济发展和社会进步提供智力支持。     

Anticipating ethical issues in emerging IT

In this essay, a new approach to the ethics of emerging information technology will be presented, called anticipatory technology ethics (ATE). The ethics of emerging technology is the study of ethical issues at the R&D and introduction stage of technology development through anticipation of possible future devices, applications, and social consequences. In the essay, I will first locate emerging technology in the technology development cycle, after which I will consider ethical approaches to emerging technologies, as well as obstacles in developing such approaches. I will argue that any sound approach must centrally include futures studies of technology. I then present ATE and some applications of it to emerging information technologies. In ATE, ethical analysis is performed at three levels, the technology, artifact and application levels, and at each levels distinct types of ethical questions are asked. ATE analyses result in the identification and evaluation of a broad range of ethical issues that can be anticipated in relation to an emerging information technology. This ethical analysis can then be used for ethical recommendations for design or governance.     

Can Taiwan's second movers upgrade via branding?

Taiwan, one of the best performers among latecomers, has successfully entered mature high-tech from the 1980s, but has yet to close the technological gap with the West. The paper examines why most of the successful second movers in Taiwan do not pursue R&D-intensive and own-brand strategies to catch up, and whether they may do so in the future. It is argued here that the second mover expands by relying upon accumulated organizational capabilities based on subcontracting manufacturing, hence implying likely path dependence in development. Thus, the strategy of choice for most will be upgrading subcontracting, cross-industry subcontracting, and then own-brand manufacturing, in that order. Among the structural factors affecting the firm's strategic choice, the industrial policy has been a crucial one. South Korea has produced some successful global brands, supported by the state's national champion policy and long-term commitment to the chaebol. The emerging China has also adopted a highly ambitious national champion strategy. The fact that the government in Taiwan has never adopted a national champion strategy helps to partly explain the evolutionary path of Taiwan's second movers, and attests to the importance of industrial policy. Unless Taiwan's policy environment changes significantly, the current trend may continue in the foreseeable future.     

We are not alone: A sample of international policy challenges and issues

Abstract

International trade in information technology involves political, economic, and military factors that are highly interrelated, making U.S. policy formulation a complex process which requires extensive data on foreign and domestic policies and technological capabilities. An analysis of U.S. policy for controlling the reexport of high‐technology goods provides an example of this interdependence. Four primary points are emphasized throughout the paper: (1) there seems to be only limited appreciation of how different issues get entangled in the international arena; (2) the data on which to base policy decisions regarding information technology do not exist in a readily available and usable form; (3) there is little understanding of the technological status and policy support for information technology in other countries; and (4) the people needed to analyze international developments and policies in the information technologies are not being trained.