基于Flex与AnyMap技术的气象灾害应急响应系统

运用Flex技术、AMF协议和FluorineFx框架,以AnyChart Flash图表家族的AnyMap地图控件的二次开发接口为平台,Action Script 3作为开发语言,提出基于Flex与AnyMap的气象灾害应急响应系统构建框架。利用该框架完成了广东省气象灾害应急响应实时发布系统的开发。与传统开发技术相比,该系统不仅界面绚丽简洁、操控方便、性能优越,还大大缩短了气象灾害应急响应发布和更新的时间,减轻了业务人员的工作强度,提高了气象灾害应急响应信息的发布水平。     

L波段雷达单独测风应急观测与记录处理

L波段雷达经过多年业务运行,故障频发,极易造成记录缺测或中断。如何在故障出现时完成观测任务,保证气象数据准确和完整,值班员的应急处置方法及时得当显得尤为重要。在总结经验的基础上,以西安泾河站2017年11月23日02时的一次L波段雷达系统突发性故障为例,从故障研判、仪器准备、数据观测、记录处理、编发报文等方面详细记录了单独测风应急观测业务流程和操作技巧,供同行参考。     

基于卫星通信的气象应急系统建设及应用

气象灾害和公共突发事件对气象应急服务迫切需求,气象应急系统建设非常有必要性。本文从系统设计、结构、主要功能和特点、应用和存在问题等方面阐述了辽源市气象应急系统建设及应用情况。辽源市气象应急系统的建成可以提升辽源气象防灾减灾的应急响应能力。     

气象灾害应急管理能力评价

建立气象灾害应急能力评价指标体系对增强应对气象灾害管理能力和提高灾害的应急响应能力有重要的意义。从系统理论的角度出发,基于气象灾害应急管理的特征和结构的分析,运用层次分析法原理,构建了由气象灾害预警防御能力、政府组织能力、支撑保障能力3个1级指标和15个2级指标组成的气象灾害应急管理能力的评价指标体系,可为提高气象灾害应急管理能力和防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

移动式自动气象站设计及其在应急气象环境监测服务中的应用

随着国民经济和社会的迅速发展,突发气象灾害对社会造成的危害越来越大,建设气象灾害监测预警与应急系统工程是全面提升气象防灾减灾应急响应能力的需要。设计满足应急气象环境监测服务需求的移动式自动气象站,采集地面实时气象要素,可以为突发气象灾害以及其它环境灾害提供气象决策服务。该文介绍国外移动综合探测系统的发展概况和国内移动应急气象观测的现状,并提出满足应急气象环境观测服务需要的自动气象站技术性能要求和设计原则。移动式自动气象站在应急气象环境监测中扮演着重要角色,在气象、林业、水利、交通、环保等领域均具有广阔的应用前景。     

对美国灾害应急管理体系的考察与思考

在介绍美国自然灾害应急管理体系的基础上,结合江西实际,对美国灾害应急服务和应急管理工作进行了分析和研究,并借鉴其成功经验,提出了进一步建立和完善江西气象灾害应急体系的一些措施。研究结果认为,要建立完整高效的自然灾害应急体系,积极发挥气象部门在灾害应急工作中的作用;要大力加强突发性气象灾害监测预警服务,充分发挥气象灾害监测预警在自然灾害应急管理中的作用：要大力加强气象信息分发服务系统建设,加强与相关部门的合作,不断提高气象灾害预警信息分发服务能力;要大力强化气象灾害防御管理职能．积极推进气象灾害防御工作社会化。     

肇庆市突发事件预警信息发布决策辅助系统的设计与应用

介绍了基于Google Earth三维地理信息系统(3D GIS)的肇庆市突发事件预警发布决策辅助系统的设计与应用。系统实现了:1)接入各应急单位行业的数据与视频信息,统观全局、快速合理地进行资源调配。2)接入各种灾害预警及逃生模型,可科学决策、合理划定撤离区域,规划逃生路线。3)靶向圈选或区域选择预警灾害区域,多渠道一键式发布预警。     

气象灾害监测预警信息系统开发与应用

根据气象防灾减灾、气象预警信息发布的需要,结合计算机数据库系统、自动气象站(山洪灾害)布点加密观测数据、移动通信技术研制开发成智能交互式的气象灾害监测预警信息系统,做到自动报警预警并能随时随地通过手机即时交互反馈信息。从而提高气象、国土、水务、应急等部门预警及防灾减灾的应用水平及服务地方政府和专业气象服务用户的能力,系统使用C/S构架,以SQL server及ACCESS为后台数据库,以Delphi为前台开发平台,结合SQL结构化查询语言,以API数据库接口方式进行数据信息的推送。     

空基遥感观测系统仿真技术与应用

正空基遥感观测系统仿真技术通过模拟无人机、浮空器或卫星平台的遥感探测过程,生成遥感观测的科学数据,该技术既能够为观测平台与载荷研制方提供卫星设计指标的分析与验证手段,也能够为遥感数据应用提供模拟数据生产源。观测系统仿真中该技术应用于对地观测卫星遥感系统正向设计与地面系统联调联试,极大提高了设计与联调的效率与有效性。随着遥感观测载荷光学与电子学技术的发展,近年来遥感观测在空间分辨率和光谱分辨率上有了突飞     

新形势下郁南县气象应急管理工作刍议

在分析郁南县气象应急管理工作现状的基础上,指出了郁南县气象应急管理存在的问题,提出进一步加强气象应急工作的建议。结果表明,郁南县在气象应急管理组织体系、气象应急预案体系、气象应急服务体系和服务流程等方面取得了一定的成效,但也存在着气象应急体制不完善、群众气象灾害防御意识比较薄弱、气象应急保障能力较低等方面的问题,应采取加强应急体系建设、完善气象应急联动机制、做好风险隐患普查排查、加快综合灾害预警信息发布系统建设、提高早期预警能力和应急响应能力等措施。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.