Does economic growth promote electric power consumption? Implications for electricity conservation,expansive, and security policies

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between electric power consumption per capita (kWh) and real GDP per capita (PEN, constant 2007 prices), in Peru, during the period 1971–2014. The four theoretical hypotheses behind this relationship are the growth hypothesis –electricity consumption explains economic growth–, the conservation hypothesis –economic growth explains electricity consumption–, the feedback hypothesis –mutually affecting explanation between electricity consumption and economic growth–, and neutrality hypothesis –electricity consumption does not explain economic growth and vice versa–. Empirically, we initially conclude that the conservation hypothesis can be confirmed using the Granger Causality test, after estimating the dynamic impacts of the long-run equilibrium and short-run models. We highlight the inelastic behavior of electric power consumption per capita with regard to real GDP per capita. These results have implications for electricity conservation, expansive and security policies. We also discussed investments in electricity generation, transmission and distribution from renewable energy sources such as hydro, wind and solar. These eco-sustainable energies also called green and clean energies, are necessary for the sustainability of the electric power demand and the level of national electrification.     

“十三五”中国电力需求水平预测

电力需求预测水平是“十三五”电力发展规划的重要基础。经济新常态下,以高端制造业为代表的第二产业、以现代服务业为代表的第三产业以及新型城镇化驱动下的居民生活用电将成为拉动中国用电需求增长的新动能。中国正处于向工业化后期过渡的关键阶段,未来将大力推进经济结构调整和转型升级,拉动经济增长的传统动力正在消退,用电需求难以出现以往的两位数高速增长。但是,与发达国家相比,中国人均用电水平仍然偏低,未来用电需求仍有较大发展潜力,过低的用电增速判断不符合相关国家及地区的历史用电发展经验。应用多种方法对中国未来电力需求水平进行了预测,预计“十三五”期间中国用电需求将维持中速刚性增长。     

基于社会经济饱和发展特征的安徽省电力需求研究

饱和电力需求研究有助于把握电力发展特征,指导近中期预测工作。分析了不同国家(地区)在饱和发展阶段经济社会发展及电力需求的特征,建立了适用于判定大区域发展饱和阶段的内生特征和电力需求外征的指标体系;研究工业化过程中经济发展、产业结构、人口规模、人均GDP水平、产值电耗等内生因素,采用协整方法构建了电量需求外征模型并预测了饱和需求,并通过与其它先进地区发展路径进行横向对比印证饱和需求特征的合理性。     

Productivity of Energy: Engineering and Economic Factors

A simple and practical graphical method for making international or interregional comparisons of energy productivity has been developed and applied to some specific significant cases. The method is based on definitions of national energy productivity as gross domestic product (GDP) per unit of energy consumed, annual per capita energy consumption, and the product of these two numbers which is GDP per capita. In order to facilitate realistic assessment of comparisons of unlike economics, two indexes are defined for individual products and energy forms. The product value index is defined as the value of product (e.g., steel or cotton) per unit of energy consumed in production. The cost of fuel index is defined as the cost to the user per unit of energy content in fuels. Application of the method, using United Nations statistical data, shows that variations of about 2 to 1 in energy productivity are essentially uncorrelated to much larger variations of over 50 to 1 in annual per capita energy consumption.     

上海市全社会月用电量预测模型

较为准确的中短期用电量预测是制定科学合理电网运行计划的前提。利用2004-2014年上海市各月全社会用电量、气温、历年GDP、人口和单位GDP能耗等数据,采用年际同比变率分析方法,分析了影响月用电量的主要因子,建立了上海市逐月用电量预测模型。结果表明:采用年际同比变率分析方法能有效剔除气温、用电量等年际变化趋势对相关关系分析结果的影响,所得结论物理意义更为清晰;上海市月用电量呈现冬季和夏季双峰型特征,受经济总量增加等因素的影响,各月用电量都呈现出增加趋势;冬季和夏季的月用电量同比变化率与气温变化相关最为密切,春季和秋季的用电量同比变化率主要与经济总量增长和产业结构调整相关;综合考虑各影响因子建立的预测模型能够实现对各月用电量较精确的预测,也可用来研判经济走势。     

社会发展对电能消费的定量分析

20世纪80年代以来社会用电量快速增长，为了研究其对电力需求的特点，分别分析了构成社会系统用电量的城镇公共设施用电量和居民生活用电量与主要影响因素的关系，建立了两者用电量与主要影响因素的回归分析模型。研究结果表明：1987年以来城镇公共设施用电量与城市化率紧密相关，根据此模型结合我国全面建设小康社会的目标，对2010年和2020年城镇公共设施需电量进行了预测。1985年以来影响居民人均生活用电量的2个主要因素是电价和居民人均可支配收入。与国外对比，定量分析了我国居民人均生活用电的电价弹性和收入弹性。分析结果表明，我国居民人均生活用电量对电价和收入弹性的绝对值都大于1，即皆富有弹性。     

山西省电力与经济增长关系研究

基于Granger因果关系及误差修正模型,对山西省电力与总量经济增长的关系及三产业用电量与三产业增加值增长的因果互动关系进行了初步的分析,结果显示,山西省电力与经济增长存在总用电量到总经济增长的Granger因果关系;第一产业与第二产业用电量增长到增加值增长的单向Granger因果关系;第三产业用电量到增加值增长的双向Granger因果关系。从长期均衡来看,山西省总用电量每增加1%,GDP增加1.36%;第一产业用电量增长1%,其增加值增长0.74%;第二产业用电量增长1%,其增加值增长1.57%;其用电量每增加1%,增加值增长1.05%,第三产业增加值每增加1%,其用电量增加0.95%。山西省经济增长尤其是第二产业增加值的增长主要以高耗能工业发展作支撑,山西省在加快电力工业建设与发展的同时,在资源有限的条件下,应进行产业结构调整,做好节能与技术改造工作,促进山西省电力与经济增长的可持续发展。     

A method for evaluating effects of energy efficiency improvement on carbon dioxide emission reduction

Global warming due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a matter of serious concern. Energy efficiency improvement has been considered to be the most effective strategy for reducing CO₂ emissions. The acceleration of R&D for energy technologies which have large effects on CO₂ emission reduction should be effective in abating global warming. In this study, the author proposes a method for evaluating the effects of energy efficiency improvement on CO₂ emission reduction. This method utilizes a compact energy system model combined with analytical calculations. Using this method, effects of energy efficiency improvement in Japan in the year 2030 are analyzed. Energy efficiency improvement in thermal power generation, nuclear power generation, and heat utilization are especially effective for reducing CO₂ emissions. The author estimates that CO₂ emissions per capita can be stabilized at the present level by energy efficiency improvement.     

城镇居民生活用电需求预测模型

随着我国经济的发展和经济结构的调整,居民用电占全社会用电量的比重逐渐增大并有继续增加的趋势。为了定量分析我国城镇居民生活用电的未来发展,从统计数据出发,选择城镇居民人均收入、城镇民用电价、前一年的城镇居民人均生活用电量作为解释变量,建立了城镇居民生活用电需求预测计量方程,确定了用电量和影响用电量的因素之间的理论和数量关系,同时为了提高模型的预测精度,揭示短期波动,建立了关于城镇居民生活用电的误差修正模型。并以此预测了2004年和2005年的用电量。结果表明,未来几年内,我国城镇居民人均生活用电量将以5.0%左右的年增长率变化。     

基于投入产出法的中长期电力需求模拟

投入产出法能很好地研究经济系统中各行业之间投入与产出的关系,利用投入产出法模拟中长期电力需求,可以反映电力需求与经济增长的内在联系,模拟结果具有很好的解释性。提出了模拟中长期电力需求的思路及模型并详细介绍了具体步骤;根据我国政府在党的"十七"大所提的人均GDP翻两番的目标,设置了GDP增长的高、中、低方案,综合考虑三大需求的变化情况,以2005年投入产出表为基准,模拟了2020年全国电力需求,包括全社会用电量、各行业用电量、居民生活用电量。到2020年,全国电力需求在6.7万亿～7.7万亿kW·h;如果到2020年刚好实现人均GDP翻两番的目标,则全国电力需求约为7.2万亿kW·h。     

A competitive evaluation of urban energy systems from viewpoints of energy conservation and mitigating environmental impact

Although various energy system alternatives for business, commercial, and residential customers have recently been developed in order to reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emission, it is important to evaluate competitive characteristics among such new energy system alternatives quantitatively, in consideration of tradeoff relations among economic cost, energy consumption, and CO₂ emission. In this paper, using multiobjective optimization model for urban energy system planning, two competitive evaluations are performed. One is the break‐even cost analysis for introducing more efficient, but more expensive energy equipment, such as photovoltaic system and fuel cell system. The other is that we evaluate the competitiveness of a certain energy system from the viewpoint of a whole urban area because there are multiple alternatives for attaining the same target of reducing CO₂ emission of energy consumption. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 164(2): 71–79, 2008; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20421     

Evaluation of a plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle considering power generation best mix

In the transport section, it is necessary to reduce the amount of CO₂ emissions and oil dependence. Bio fuels and fuel cell vehicle (FCV), electric vehicle (EV) and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) are expected to reduce CO₂ emissions and oil dependence. We focus on PHEV. PHEV can reduce total energy consumption because of its high efficiency and can run with both oil and electricity. Introduction of PHEV reduces oil consumption, but it also increases electricity demands. Therefore, we must evaluate PHEV's CO₂ reduction potential, not only in the transport section but also in the power grid section. To take into account the distribution of the daily travel distance is also very important. All energy charged in the PHEV's battery cannot always be used. That influences the evaluation. We formulate the total model that combines passenger car model and power utility grid model, and we also consider the distribution of the daily travel distance. With this model, we show the battery cost per kWh at which PHEV begins to be introduced and oil dependence in the passenger car section is to be reduced to 80%. We also show PHEV's CO₂ reduction potentials and effects on the power supply system. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 171(2): 12–22, 2010; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20920     

华北电网地区饱和电力需求研究

分析了国内外不同发展阶段的国家电力需求发展历程,证实了一个国家在经济发展过程中存在电力需求增速由高到低的过程,存在饱和电力需求的事实;建立了适用于大区域饱和电力需求预测的指标评价体系;结合华北实际情况,研究分析了华北电网6省市区工业化过程中经济发展、产业结构、劳动力结构、城市化率、消费模式、人均收入水平等因素,运用系统动力学模型计算了华北电网六省市饱和电力需求达到时间及数量范围.     

中国能源碳排放因素分解与情景预测

我国能源活动碳排放占总碳排放85%以上,研究能源活动碳排放的变化规律对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。首先,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)对1995—2017年我国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素进行分解,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构、能源价格、人均可支配收入、人口规模这7个方面,模型给出了相关因素对一、二、三产业和居民部门碳排放变化的贡献。结果表明,对于3个产业部门,经济增长是碳排放增长的首要驱动力,而技术进步带来的能源强度下降、产业结构优化和能源消费结构改善呈现负效应,且产业结构优化和能源结构清洁化的作用越来越显著。对于居民部门,人均可支配收入是居民部门碳排放增长的推动力,而能源价格呈现明显的负效应。其次,设计了3种情景,运用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression population,affluence and technology,STIRPAT)对2030年我国能源碳排放进行预测,在以实现碳达峰为目标的低碳情景中,我国能源碳排放有望于2025—2029年实现达峰,峰值水平为101亿~110亿t。最后,为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,建议以构建中国能源互联网为基础平台,实施“清洁替代”和“电能替代”,推进能源转型。     

基于节电潜力分析的需求侧管理研究

采用横向对比法,按照不同的分组条件对各地区分组逐步细化,计算出各地区在当前技术经济水平下通过采取措施可实现的节电潜力.运用关联度方法进行了电能效率影响因素分析,通过计算表明电能效率同产业结构、人均GDP、能源效率、科技水平具有正相关性.依据研究结果提出了需求侧管理建议.     

Impacts of ubiquitous technology advances on energy consumption in Japan

We created a mathematical model of the Japanese economy using a macro‐economic modeling framework called a computable general equilibrium model. We used the model to estimate the impacts of the ubiquitous network technology advances on CO₂ emissions in Japan. Four scenarios of the ubiquitous network society in Japan in 2010 were selected. The four scenarios correspond to four different levels of ubiquitous society advancement. In each scenario, we estimated electricity consumption by electronics products, the effects of ubiquitous network application systems on improving energy efficiency, and the industrial structural changes induced by the expansion of the ubiquitous network application services market. Our results indicate that advanced ubiquitous technologies would potentially reduce the CO₂ emissions of the Japanese economy by 2.8%. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 161(3): 22–30, 2007; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20419     

Cross-border Power Trading Model for South Asian Regional Power Pool

Power sector reform is currently underway in several countries of South Asia. This is noticed mainly in the form of change in the investment and ownership pattern, and increasing role for the private investment, both domestic and foreign. These countries continue to be characterized by low per capita consumption of energy, poor quality of energy infrastructure, skewed distribution and inaccessible and costly energy availability. Interconnection of power systems of contiguously located countries and their coordinated operation provide immense technical and economic benefits. The main issue is to run the system in free and fair manner ensuring quality power to the consumer’s at most economical price through safe, secure and reliable operation of the power system resulting in transparent price discovery. Although a number of market models are prevalent in the international arena, the same could not be directly adopted for South Asian Regional power market. This paper is focused on integrating the power market in South Asia, examining the opportunities, benefits, and challenges. Complexity of electricity market in cross border international model scenario has been analyzed in this paper and a model for South Asian Regional Power Pool has been proposed. Demand and supply side bidding scenarios with case studies are presented in the paper.     

湖北省电力消费与经济增长的关系研究

文章定量分析了湖北省电力消费与经济增长的关系,得出了全社会用电量和地区生产总值的增长关系模型,对分产业用电量和经济增加值增长的因果关系进行了分析。     

基于饱和负荷密度指标约束下的大连市中心区电网负荷预测

随着城市电网发展与城市发展之间的协调问题越来越突出,电力饱和负荷预测对电网的规划与发展具有重要的作用。以大连市经济社会发展现状为基础,结合城市发展定位和发展规划,参照国外发达国家或城市的主要经济指标,分别采用基于人均用电量的特征参数类比法、饱和负荷密度特征参数类比法以及空间负荷预测法,对大连市中心区饱和负荷进行了预测,并进一步研究得出城市中心区饱和负荷在空间上的大致分布,为城市电网规划中确定变电站站址和线路走廊提供借鉴。     

A hybrid algorithm of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Iterated Local Search (ILS) for estimating electricity domestic consumption: Case of Turkey

This paper presents the forecasting of Turkey’s electricity domestic consumption using hybrid algorithm, which bases on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Iterated Local Search (ILS) algorithms. The approximation forecasting of an important energy source like electric for countries such as Turkey, which greatly imported energy sources, is so vital. In this paper, electricity domestic consumption model is first proposed by hybrid approach of ACO and ILS. Both techniques are quite simple and powerful stochastic local search method. ACO uses pheromone update mechanism to escape the local optimum. ILS applies iteratively local search to an initial solution until finding a local optimum; then it perturbs the solution and restarts a local search. This paper aims combining the advantages of these two algorithms to perform successful estimations. We use some economic indicators such as population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export when Hybrid Electricity Domestic Consumption Estimation (HEDCE) model is developed. HEDCE equations proposed here are linear and quadratic. Results show that Quadratic_HEDCE find better solution because it can reflect better the variations of used indicators. The HEDCE models forecast Turkey’s electricity domestic consumption until 2030 under dissimilar scenarios.