基于小波BP神经网络的风电机组变桨系统故障预测

变桨故障是风电机组重要的停机故障之一,对变桨系统进行故障预测并提高预测精度,是风电开发的关键技术,不但保证电网安全运行而且减少运维成本。分析处理SCADA系统数据,提取相关联参数,即输出功率、风速、桨距角和转子转速。采用BP神经网络对系统进行模型训练,考虑到风电机组参数具有波动性、不确定性等,同时采用小波BP神经网络进行模型训练。建立变桨故障预测模型,预测未来15 d的变桨系统运行情况,用于制定合理的运维方案。通过MATLAB系统仿真研究,对比分析了预测模型性能指标、误差指标和输出数据图形,小波BP神经网络训练预测模型诊断精度比BP神经网络提高了17%,可信率提高了18%,诊断能力提高了15.4%,诊断误报率降低了17%。     

基于新陈代谢无偏灰色神经网络的水质预测模型

针对水质参数样本数据少且非线性的特点,建立了新陈代谢无偏GM(1,1)与BP神经网络的组合预测模型,将通过新陈代谢无偏GM(1, 1)模型得到的数据集作为BP神经网络的输入,原始序列作为神经网络的期望输出,训练得到最佳BP神经网络。将该组合模型应用于乐山岷江大桥断面溶解氧浓度的预测,结果表明,相对误差均在3%以下,与传统灰色神经网络水质预测模型相比,该模型具有实时性及预测精度更高的优点。     

基于改进GM(1,1)模型的电力市场期货价格的预测

建立和实现了基于灰色理论的电力市场期货价格的改进GM(1,1)预测模型。从改进θ参数、修正初始条件、等维新息处理等三个方面对原始GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,并利用真实期货价格检验改进GM(1,1)模型的拟合效果。结果表明,改进GM(1,1)模型的预测效果明显好于原始模型,具有较高的预测精度。     

基于GM和BP网络的我国能源消费量组合预测模型

利用我国能源消费的历史数据,采用灰色预测的GM(1,1)、无偏GM(1,1)和pGM(1,1)三种模型与BP神经网络进行优化组合,建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明,组合预测模型获得了更为精确的预测效果,可以作为能源消费预测的有效工具。     

基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的柴油机热工参数预测研究

柴油机热工参数预测是柴油机故障诊断研究的重要方向,对于实现柴油机的视情维修具有重要意义。提出基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的柴油机热工参数预测方法,在柴油机小样本热工数据基础上建立预测模型,并利用新陈代谢法实时更新建模数据,以提高样本数据的利用效率和预测精度。基于上柴SC5D122D型柴油机实验台模拟气缸排气阀间隙的劣化过程,同步检测相关热工参数获得数据样本,对预测模型进行效果验证。结果表明,该预测方法具有建模数据量小,预测接近度高,计算简单等优点。     

土石坝竖向位移的灰色非线性拟合与预测

应用灰色系统理论,在一阶单变量灰色线性模型GM(1,1)基础上,引入使平均相对误差为最小的灰元 a作为模型参数,建立了灰色非线性模型GM(1,1; a),该模型弱化了模型精度对累加生成序列须呈指数规律的要求。将之用于冯家山土石坝竖向位移拟合与预测,精度高于灰色线性模型,并更具普遍适用性。     

基于改进灰色模型的江苏省发电量预测研究

针对传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在实际应用中存在预测精度不高或精度通不过检验的问题,基于2000～2009年江苏省发电量数据,采用改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了江苏省2000～2009年发电量,并与传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行比较。结果表明,改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型显著提高了原始数据序列的光滑度,预测误差远低于传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,进而预测了江苏省2015、2020年的发电量,对江苏省制定电力发展规划具有重要的参考意义。     

基于神经网络的零维预测燃烧模型及建模方法

提出了基于神经网络的零维预测燃烧模型,适用于发动机稳态和动态过程的燃烧计算.以建立高原增压柴油机燃烧模型为例,介绍了基于神经网络的零维预测燃烧模型的建模步骤,主要包括放热率计算、放热率参数化、构建和训练神经网络.介绍了缸压处理和放热率计算方法;以三韦伯函数形式拟合放热率曲线,增加一系列约束解决拟合参数的多解问题;构建并训练了神经网络,完成建模.通过训练误差分析、预测结果与试验数据的对比,对模型的预测精度进行了验证.     

基于灰色BP神经网络的道路交通事故死亡率预测

建立基于灰色BP神经网络的道路交通事故死亡率预测模型,并为其编制Matlab程序。将该模型与GM(1,1)模型进行比较分析,结果表明灰色BP神经网络能更好地预测道路交通事故死亡率。     

基于GM(1,1)模型预测柴油机润滑油金属元素含量的变化趋势

利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对柴油机润滑油中的金属元素进行趋势预测,首先利用元素历史数据建立动态微分方程,然后基于该微分方程预测元素的变化趋势,为润滑油性能分析和故障定位提供参考。通过对某型柴油机润滑油的监测实例,结果表明该预测方法具有数据量小、计算简单、预测准确的特点。     

具有智能化特征的安全稳定分析与控制决策技术

安全稳定预警与控制辅助决策是智能电网调度技术支持系统不可缺少的应用类功能。在分析安全稳定分析与控制决策计算工作特点的基础上,提出安全稳定分析与控制决策支持智能化的主要特征：自动化和自适应性。介绍了自动化的安全稳定分析计算技术,包括输入数据准备、任务执行和输出结果的自动化处理;阐述了自适应电网运行工况、外部环境和硬件运行状态的安全稳定分析技术,包括调整应用功能的输入数据和妥善处理安全稳定性交互影响,以及根据分析计算任务要求动态优化调度计算资源。这些技术已用于安全稳定综合防御系统,提高了分析结果的适应性和分析计算的效率,在电网运行规划、计划安全校核、超短期安全态势预测、调度操作安全校核和在线分析与控制等电网调度运行管理中发挥作用。     

过热器再热器爆漏事故的原因分析及对策

过热器、再热器爆漏事故严重影响了锅炉机组的安全性和经济性,而造成过热器、再热器爆漏事故的主要因素有超温爆管、磨损、高温腐蚀、热疲劳、质量失控等。通过对这些因素的主要原因和爆口特征的分析,提出了一些过热器、再热器爆漏事故的防治措施。     

铁道机车车辆轮轨的摩擦磨损与节能降耗

阐述了铁道机车车辆轮轨摩擦磨损的现状;研究了内燃机车车轮、闸瓦和钢轨的消耗数量及相应的维修费用;指出了采用适当的新技术之后,在节能降耗方面会产生显著的经济效益。     

能源的开发利用与节能

在节能与环保问题成为当今全球性重要研究课题的情况下,笔者对中国能源的现状、新能源开发问题和在用车辆的环保节能问题进行了研究探讨。认为我国应加大开发可再生能源、核能源的力度,开发城市生活垃圾的新能源,找出在用柴油车实现环保节能的一些新措施。     

国内外能耗监测控制管理理论与实践

能耗监测是能源管理中的重要环节,国外不少国家在这方面都进行了积极的努力,制定了一些相关政策,并取得了一部分研究成果.我国于上世纪90年代初就出台了关于能耗监测的有关规定,2007年颁布的《单位GDP能耗监测体系实施方案》规定了能耗监测的主体、主要内容和指标.工业、交通运输和建筑是我国三大“耗能大户”,因此能耗监测研究和管理实践也主要集中在这三个领域.信息技术的发展为工业企业的能耗监测提供了基础平台,运用计算机信息技术对能耗实行现代化管理,成为企业实现信息化管理、降低成本的一种重要手段.道路交通约占我国交通运输业能耗的75％,因而对道路交通能耗的监测是交通运输业能耗监测的主要任务,而对机车能耗的监测是铁路运输能耗监测的主要内容之一.建筑能耗监测主要针对大型公共建筑,通过信息化手段进行信息采集及能耗监测.目前有关能耗监测的研究还处于起步阶段,尚未全面展开,能耗监测技术还不成熟,监测设备也不齐全.今后除了要继续探索能耗监测技术以外,还应重点加强对主要行业能耗监测控制管理体系的研究.     

The roles of science and technology in energy and environment research and development

Countries are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of science and technology in relation to national development and the necessity of formulating a concise science and technology policy. The need to strengthen and orient the scientific and technological infrastructure in line with national development goals, through more effective use of an available qualified work force and the higher education system, is becoming widely recognized. Consequently, appropriate methods of assessing the impact of science and technology on national development are needed so that efforts are concentrated on areas potentially having substantial impacts. Numerous planning studies have been undertaken to this end, particularly by international organizations such as UNESCO, UNIDO, OECD and IEA. This study examines the inter‐relationships of the disciplines of science and technology with energy and environment research and development (R&D) activities, particularly for developing countries. The connections between these topics are discussed along with some basic methods that can be used to exploit the relations. Some illustrative examples are presented. It is anticipated that the present study will serve as a preliminary step for more comprehensive work by providing an example of the utilization of formal methods in formulating science and technology policy for energy and environment R&D. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

火电厂TSI安装调试及常见故障诊断和处理

火电机组TSI探头的安装与调试是一个较为复杂和精细的工作.是火电厂热控安装不可或缺的最重要的组成部分.文章对各种测量探头的原理进行了分析,理论结合实际,将原理图和现场安装图进行对照,通俗易懂.对这些TSI探头在实际安装时应注意的细节问题做了详尽的阐述,同时对试车过程中出现的问题进行了分析并提出了处理措施.对火电机组汽轮机本体热工仪表安装工作有一定的指导意义.     

Hydrophilic and hydrophobic materials and their applications

Wettability of a material’s surface plays a significant role in how fluids interact with such surfaces. Wetting behavior is universal but can vary depending on the chemical nature of the solid and liquid phases. Plants and animals adapt to their environment by having evolved special properties. These properties are such as hydrophilic and hydrophobic. Hydrophilic surface has a strong affinity to water and spreading of water on such surface is preferred. The degree of hydrophilicity of the substance can be measured by measuring the contact angle between the liquid and solid phases. Hydrophobic materials are known as non-polar materials with a low affinity to water, which makes them water repelling. A contact angle of less than 90° indicates hydrophilic interaction where as an angle greater than 90° indicates a hydrophobic interaction. More recently, superwetting such as superhydrophilicity has been receiving an increased focus in the literature due to its potential significance. Superhydrophilic surface has a contact angle of less than 5°.

The fabrication of hydrophilic materials can be carried out in two main ways: depositing molecules on surfaces or modification of surface chemistry. Both methods have been successful historically in achieving their intended purposes. Hydrophobic and superhydrophobic materials can be produced with many fabrication methods such as layer-by-layer assembly, laser process, the solution-immersion method, sol-gen techniques, chemical etching, and Hummer’s method.

The applications of such an important property are significant. For example, hydrophilic surfaces can be used in anti-fogging applications, biomedical, filtration, heat pipes, and many others. Hydrophobic and superhydrophobic materials have been successfully applied in many sectors, such as: (I) the removal of petroleum from aqueous solutions, (II) applied to plastic, ceramics, and mesh to contribute to the oil removal from aqueous solutions, (III) hydrophobic layers have a strong self-cleaning effect on plastics, heat pipes, metals, textiles, glass, paints, and electronics, (IV) hydrophobic layers improve the anti-freezing behavior of heat pipes which prevents unwanted build-up and (V) they function as a water and dust protecting coat on electronics.

The presence of this property is historic but there is still a huge potential for development for its applications in many sectors such as water treatment, heat transfer applications, biomedical devices, and many more.     

Defect and impurity diagnostics and process monitoring

The review focuses on four areas of defect and impurity diagnostics: (i) the determination of parasitic resistances, (ii) quantum efficiency analysis including light-beam-induced current measurement systems which use spectrally resolved currents to determine local recombination in solar cells, (iii) methods to determine the recombination properties in solar cell precursors and (iv) techniques suitable for the recognition of the type of impurity or defect, which is responsible for increased recombination. In general, emphasis is on those methods, which are capable of delivering spatially resolved information. The use of the specific metastability features of a defect for its identification is exemplified. In addition, carrier lifetime spectroscopy methods utilising the temperature or the injection dependence of defect recombination are outlined.     

Hydrogen and electricity from water and light

Four self-driven photoelectrochemical hydrogen producers: n-TiO₂/p-CdTe, n-TiO₂/p-GaP, n-SrTiO₃/p-CdTe and n-SrTiO₃/p-GaP were constructed and examined in 1 M NaOH. the current-potential curves of the individual electrodes and the current-cell voltage relationships were measured. Cell current-density measurements versus time demonstrated that the output of each cell is stable for at least 12 h. the n-SrTiO₃/p-GaP cell under xenon light irradiation was the most efficient at 0·7 per cent. the n-TiO₂/p-GaP cell was estimated as the most efficient under solar light at 0·1 per cent. the stability of p-CdTe and its energy gap of 1·5 eV make it a prospect for use as a photocathode in future photoelectrochemical hydrogen producers.