A Framework to Predict the Impacts of Shale Gas Infrastructures on the Forest Fragmentation of an Agroforest Region

We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13–21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.     

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge.     

Impacts of Off-Road Vehicles (ORVs) on Macrobenthic Assemblages on Sandy Beaches

Sandy beaches are the prime sites for human recreation and underpin many coastal economies and developments. In many coastal areas worldwide, beach recreation relies on the use of off-road vehicles (ORVs) driven on the shore. Yet, the use of ORVs is not universally embraced due to social conflicts with other beach user groups and putative environmental consequences of vehicle traffic on sandy shores. Such ecological impacts of ORVs are, however, poorly understood for endobenthic invertebrates of the intertidal zone seawards of the dunes. Consequently, this study quantified the degree to which assemblages of intertidal beach invertebrates are affected by traffic. The study design comprised a series of temporally replicated spatial contrasts between two reference sites (no ORVs) and two beaches with heavy ORV traffic (in excess of 250,000 vehicles per year) located in South-East Queensland, Australia. Macrobenthic assemblages on ORV-impacted beaches had significantly fewer species at substantially reduced densities, resulting in marked shifts in community composition and structure. These shifts were particularly strong on the middle and upper shore where vehicle traffic was concentrated. Strong effects of ORVs were detectable in all seasons, but increased towards the summer months as a result of heavier traffic volumes. This study provides clear evidence that ORVs can have substantial impacts on sandy beach invertebrates that are manifested throughout the whole community. Demonstrating such an ecological impact caused by a single type of human use poses a formidable challenge to management, which needs to develop multi-faceted approaches to balance environmental, social, cultural, and economic arguments in the use of sandy shores, including management of “beach traffic.”     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

Agricultural area impacts within a natural area: Cades cove,a case history

Agricultural management in Cades Cove, an historic district in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, has affected natural resources both within the district and in the adjoining natural areas. Aquatic impacts of haying and cattle grazing included increases in water temperatures, turbidity, nutrient loading, and bacterial counts and decreases in benthic macroinvertebrate density and fish biomass. Wildlife populations, including groundhogs, wild turkeys, and white-tailed deer, have increased in the open fields and around the periphery of the historic district. Intensive deer foraging has removed deciduous seedlings and saplings from woodlots, lowering species diversity and favoring coniferous reproduction. Cades Cove has limestone habitats unique in the park, and both deer browse and cattle grazing may have disturbed populations of rare plant species. Effects on water quality are detectable at a campground 15 stream km from the agricultural area, and the effects of deer foraging extend about 1 km beyond the open fields.Since historic landscape preservation is presently a goal of the park, managing for open vistas in Cades Cove will require some sort of continuing disturbance. Conversion of cattle pastures to hayfields would reduce aquatic impacts but the deer herd might increase as a result of reduced competition for forage. Retarding old field succession would increase populations of native plant species dependent on sunlight, but would require government-funded mowing. Other options are discussed. Completely eliminating the effects of the historic district on adjoining areas may be impossible, at least under present economic constraints.     

NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RUNOFF IMPACT ON RECEIVING WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban stormwater runoff has been recognized as a potential major contributor of pollution to receiving waters. However the projected high costs of control have prompted an examination of the extent to which these impacts have been documented. A nationwide search was conducted for case studies demonstrating a cause-effect linkage between urban runoff and impairment of beneficial uses in receiving waters. The results indicate that numerous definitions of “impacts” are being used and that few substantive data exist to support many of these allegations. Results of a preliminary impact assessment are presented for the 248 urbanized areas of the United States. Then, the results of more recent efforts to assess these impacts in several case studies are described. This assessment demonstrates the critical need for additional short-term and long-term sampling programs.     

Forests and societal values: comparing scientific and public perception of forest health

This study examines the common ground between lay people and scientists regarding forest values and definitions of forest health. With the forest at Pinery Provincial Park, Ontario, as a case study, the authors compared six ecological indicators to determine which were sensitive to the multiple impacts of visitor use, deer browsing and fire suppression. Plant cover and proportion native species were sensitive to these impacts. Sapling height was greater in low deer density areas. The authors also conducted focused discussions with local interest groups, followed by qualitative data analysis. Overall, there was good convergence between scientific and public views of forests and forest health, although this may partly be due to the groups' interest in nature and the Pinery. Subjects saw a connection between their health and the state of the global and local environment, including forests. There is a need for increased awareness in the public to the necessity of managing high deer populations in parks to protect other forest components such as biodiversity. Forest managers must consider that people greatly value forests near them for mental well being. Group responses suggested that messages explicitly linking forest benefits to human health and well being may motivate people to protect forests.     

Impacts of recreation and tourism on plant biodiversity and vegetation in protected areas in Australia

This paper reviews recent research into the impact of recreation and tourism in protected areas on plant biodiversity and vegetation communities in Australia. Despite the international significance of the Australian flora and increasing visitation to protected areas there has been limited research on recreational and tourism impacts in Australia. As overseas, there are obvious direct impacts of recreation and tourism such as clearing of vegetation for infrastructure or damage from trampling, horse riding, mountain biking and off road vehicles. As well, there are less obvious but potentially more severe indirect impacts. This includes self-propagating impacts associated with the spread of some weeds from trails and roads. It also includes the severe impact on native vegetation, including many rare and threatened plants, from spread of the root rot fungus Phytopthora cinnamomi. This review highlights the need for more recreational ecology research in Australia.     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD UNDER GRAZING IN FOOTHILLS FESCUE GRASSLANDS OF ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn² runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.     

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS pollution management.     

Road effects on abundance and fitness of Galápagos lava lizards (Microlophus albemarlensis)

Vehicle collisions with wildlife have the potential to negatively impact species everywhere roads divide natural habitats; this is especially true in areas where roads are a recent addition to the landscape (e.g., in the last decade) and/or where expansion of a road network is underway. This study addresses the impact of traffic fatalities on lava lizards, Microlophus albemarlensis, on the island of Santa Cruz, Galápagos. The main road bisecting the island north to south was added to the island beginning in 1974 but not fully paved until 2000. We assessed impacts occurring due to traffic and vehicle speeds on the island. This study adds impacts to lizard populations to those conducted on birds on Santa Cruz, providing a means to create multi-species recommendations. To quantify impacts to lizard populations, we assessed lizards on randomly chosen transects perpendicular to the road. We used Poisson regression to analyze those data and found a 30% increase in lizard abundance per 100 m distance from the road across vegetation zones. We compared incidence of prior tail loss of road-killed lizards and live animals to comment on additional energetic costs of occupying near-road territories. Tail condition could not be assessed in some road-killed lizards; among those that we could assess, 29% showed evidence of prior tail loss. That rate declined to apparent baseline conditions of only 1% beyond 200 m from the road. By traveling the length of the 40-km road, we identified hot spots for fatalities of both lizards and birds to provide necessary information for developing management and remediation strategies. We offer guidance on Best Management Practices, such as testing overpasses, fencing and underpasses, which might reduce vehicle impacts to lizards from drivers on the current road. This information is essential because of a planned increase in the Santa Cruz road network in areas where lava lizards are most abundant.     

How to facilitate (or discourage) community-based research: recommendations based on a Canadian survey

The impact of the extreme heat wave that affected Melbourne, Australia, in two distinct phases in January and February 2009 was severe, with 374 (heat) and 173 (bushfire) excess deaths. Whilst the human health issues have been covered in detail in policy and academic arenas, much less attention has been paid to the adverse impacts on urban infrastructure. Analysis of this event, underpinned by participatory actor-based research, has shown that the impacts were experienced disproportionately across different infrastructure types. For water, telecommunications and airports, the impacts were relatively minor and the impact on rail transport and roads (and to a lesser extent, seaports) was of moderate significance, whereas research findings indicate that the electricity sector was found to be the most vulnerable. This paper focuses on the sectors that were worst impacted: electricity, rail and road transport. Commentary identifies the direct and indirect impacts of the heat event, including associated cascading effects, as well as considering actual and potential adaptation responses both before and after the event. Concluding, the authors reflect on the implications of the heat wave for urban resilience, emphasising the crucial importance of understanding the urban environment as a complex and interconnected system.     

Predicting the Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise on an Endangered Lagomorph

Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.     

Satellite Monitoring of Urban Sprawl and Assessment of its Potential Environmental Impact in the Greater Toronto Area Between 1985 and 2005

This research investigates urban sprawl in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) between 1985 and 2005 and the nature of the resulting landscape fragmentation, particularly with regard to the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM), an ecologically important area for the region. Six scenes of Landsat TM imagery were acquired in summer of 1985, 1995, and 2005. These images and their texture measures were classified into eight land cover classes with very satisfactory final overall accuracies (93–95?%). Analysis of the classifications indicated that urban areas grew by 20?% between 1985 and 1995 and by 15?% between 1995 and 2005. Landscape fragmentation due to spatio-temporal land cover changes was evaluated using urban compactness indicators and landscape metrics, and results from the latter were used to draw conclusions about probable environmental impact. The indicator results showed that urban proportions increased in nearly all areas outside of the metropolitan center, including on portions of the ORM. The landscape metrics reveal that low density urban areas increased significantly in the GTA between 1985 and 2005, mainly at the expense of agricultural land. The metric results indicate increased vulnerability and exposure to adverse effects for natural and semi-natural land cover through greater contrast and lowered connectivity. The degree of urban perimeter increased around most environmentally significant areas in the region. Changes like these negatively impact species and the regional water supply in the GTA. Further investigation into specific environmental impacts of urban expansion in the region and which areas on the ORM are most at risk is recommended.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

Effects of Impervious Cover at Multiple Spatial Scales on Coastal Watershed Streams1

Abstract: The spatial scale and location of land whose development has the strongest influence on aquatic ecosystems must be known to support land use decisions that protect water resources in urbanizing watersheds. We explored impacts of urbanization on streams in the West River watershed, New Haven, Connecticut, to identify the spatial scale of watershed imperviousness that was most strongly related to water chemistry, macroinvertebrates, and physical habitat. A multiparameter water quality index was used to characterize regional urban nonpoint source pollution levels. We identified a critical level of 5% impervious cover, above which stream health declined. Conditions declined with increasing imperviousness and leveled off in a constant state of impairment at 10%. Instream variables were most correlated (0.77 ≤ |r| ≤ 0.92, p < 0.0125) to total impervious area (TIA) in the 100‐m buffer of local contributing areas (～5‐km² drainage area immediately upstream of each study site). Water and habitat quality had a relatively consistent strong relationship with TIA across each of the spatial scales of investigation, whereas macroinvertebrate metrics produced noticeably weaker relationships at the larger scales. Our findings illustrate the need for multiscale watershed management of aquatic ecosystems in small streams flowing through the spatial hierarchies that comprise watersheds with forest‐urban land use gradients.     

Scale Effects on Spatially Varying Relationships Between Urban Landscape Patterns and Water Quality

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.     

iTree‐Hydro: Snow Hydrology Update For The Urban Forest Hydrology Model1

Yang, Yang, Theodore A. Endreny, and David J. Nowak, 2011. iTree‐Hydro: Snow Hydrology Update for the Urban Forest Hydrology Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1211–1218. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00564.x Abstract: This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree‐Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree‐Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process‐based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate hydrology routines presented in this update to iTree‐Hydro include: (1) snow interception to simulate the capture of snow by the vegetation canopy, (2) snow unloading to simulate the release of snow triggered by wind, (3) snowmelt to simulate the solid to liquid phase change using a heat budget, and (4) snow sublimation to simulate the solid to gas phase via evaporation. Cold climate hydrology routines were tested with research‐grade snow accumulation and weather data for the winter of 1996‐1997 at Umpqua National Forest, Oregon. The Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency for open area snow accumulation was 0.77 and the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency for under canopy was 0.91. The USDA Forest Service offers iTree‐Hydro for urban forest hydrology simulation through http://www.iTreetools.org .     

Seasonal food use by white-tailed deer at Valley Forge National Historical Park,Pennsylvania, USA

Food habits of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were examined from January to November 1984 via fecal-pellet analysis at Valley Forge National Historical Park (VFNHP), which represents an island habitat for deer surrounded by extensive urbanization, in southeastern Pennsylvania. In addition, use of fields by deer was compared to food habits. Herbaceous vegetation (forbs, leaves of woody plants, and conifer needles) was the predominant food type in all seasons except fall. Acorns and graminoids (grasses and sedges) were important food resources in fall and spring, respectively. Use of woody browse (twigs) was similar among seasons. Field use was relatively high during fall, winter without snow cover (<20 cm), and spring when food resources in fields were readily available. In contrast, use of fields was lowest in summer when preferred woodland foods were available and in winter with snow cover when food in fields was not readily accessible. Patterns of food-type use by deer at VFNHP indicate the year-round importance of nonwoody foods and field habitats to deer populations on public lands such as national parks in the northeastern United States.