秋种马铃薯晚疫病气候试验研究

利用贵州六盘水市农业科学研究院综合科研基地(平均海拔1 100 m),于2016—2017年开展秋种马铃薯气候试验。基于马铃薯晚疫病监测资料,结合2016—2017年的8月15日至12月31日逐日平均温度、最低温度、相对湿度、降水量等资料,对秋种马铃薯晚疫病发生、流行的气象因子和动态特征进行分析、研究。结果表明:马铃薯晚疫病发生、流行的主要时期为现蕾—开花期。在马铃薯现蕾—开花期,当连续3 d及以上日平均温度≤18℃,且相对湿度75%时,3 d之后,当日平均温度18℃、相对湿度75%时,有利于晚疫病发生。建议以此气象条件作为秋种马铃薯晚疫病防御的预警指标,以便在预警指标出现后积极组织预防,以提高防治效果。     

2022年春季冰雹灾害对贵州西部红心猕猴桃的影响分析

2022年4月下旬至5月上旬,贵州西部共发生了6次冰雹天气过程,有4次冰雹灾害天气严重影响贵州西部红心猕猴桃生产,其主要是发生在4月22日、5月6日、5月8日、5月9日的冰雹天气过程。为了探明2022年4月下旬至5月上旬4次冰雹天气过程对红心猕猴桃果实的影响,通过6次冰雹天气过程影响区的调查,获取冰雹特征数据和红心猕猴桃在4次冰雹灾害过程中的受灾情况,分析诱发冰雹天气发生的大气环流特征,并采用相关统计方法对4次冰雹灾害对红心猕猴桃造成的损失进行评估。结果表明：6次冰雹天气过程中,冰雹最大直径达20mm,但最大直径大多在10mm以下,其中水城区的冰雹最大直径较其他地区大,遭遇冰雹天气次数也最多。影响红心猕猴桃生产的4次冰雹天气过程的天气背景具有贵阳站的CAPE均远远大于威宁站、中低层相对湿度均在90%以上、中高层相对湿度均在80%左右的共同特点。4月22日、5月6日和5月9日冰雹天气发生前,500hPa均有浅槽、700hPa均有低涡切变线入侵贵州西部;5月8日冰雹天气发生前,500hPa和700hPa贵州西部均处于西太副高外围。4次冰雹灾害造成红心猕猴桃885.4hm²绝收,占其基地种植面积的9.04%;因冰雹灾害造成产量损失约1.33万t,直接经济损失19921.5万元。     

眉县猕猴桃溃疡病气象条件分析与预报模式研究

利用2008—2015年眉县猕猴桃溃疡病监测资料和相应年份眉县地面气象观测站常规气象观测资料,分析了眉县猕猴桃溃疡病发生特点及规律,以及气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数、积温等气象要素对猕猴桃溃疡病发生程度的影响,并采用多元线性回归方法,建立眉县猕猴桃溃疡病发生程度的气象预报模型。结果表明:果树休眠期(11—1月),11—12月气温、积温偏低,降水(11中旬、12月中旬)偏多、日照(1月上旬)偏多利于猕猴桃溃疡病侵染传播;芽膨大期(3月),降水(3月上旬)偏多利于果树发芽染病。猕猴桃溃疡病气象预报模型预报效果较好,可以推广应用于当地猕猴桃溃疡病气象应用服务工作。     

柴达木地区枸杞主要虫害与气象条件关系分析

利用柴达木地区16a的气象资料和1a枸杞虫害观测资料,得到虫害不同时期的气象指标,并对2015年枸杞虫害成因进行了分析。结果表明:旬平均温度达到4～6℃之间时,虫卵开始孵化,6—9月的旬平均温度≥15℃、平均相对湿度≥33%时,虫害繁殖生长速度明显加快,密度增大;10月下旬至11月上旬平均气温≤5.0℃,虫害进入越冬期。2015年虫害发生程度较重主要是4—5月份平均气温偏高,6月份相对湿度偏大所致。     

倒春寒长期预报方法

一、倒春寒标准及气候概率:我们确定倒春寒标准如下:1).4月份连续≥3天日平均温度<11.0℃。2).4月份连续3天日平均温度滑动平均≤10.0℃,其中有连续2天≤9.0℃。凡符合以上二条之一者,为有倒春寒年份。根据以上标准,本站60—77年共18年中出现倒春寒的8年,占%。     

思南2001年气候影响评价

1　全年温度变化趋势全年平均温度 1 7 7℃ ,比历年偏高0 4℃ ,极端最高温度是 7月 7日的 37 9℃ ,极端最低温度是 1 2月 2 3日的 - 0 3℃ ,3月1日气温稳定通过 1 0℃以上 ,比历年提前1 7ｄ ,结束时间为 1 2月 3日 ,比历年推迟 8ｄ ,总积温 582 0 2℃ ,比历年偏多 335 1℃ ,持续2 78,比历年偏多 2 5ｄ ,有利于农业生产。春季倒春寒不明显 ,有利于夏粮作物的生长 ,是大季作物育苗好时机。夏季日平均气温≥ 30℃的有 5ｄ ,日最高值是 8月 7日的 31 5℃ ,极端最高温度≥35℃ ,出现 1 7ｄ ,连续极端最高温度达≥ 35℃以上时段 ,7月出现 4ｄ …     

春播期稳定通过10℃初日的分析预报

我们从气候统计入手,分析前期连阴雨与稳定通过10℃初日的关系。进而,以农谚为线索,天气形势为背景,寻找前期相关因子,建立预报方程,为适宜播种期作出较为客观的定量预报。 一、气候统计的启示 我县早稻播种期一般在3月中旬至4月上旬。一般认为日平均气温稳定通过10℃的始期即是早稻大量播种育秧的适宜期。又据农业部门试验得知,当日≤12℃,日照≤3小时,并出现≥5天的连阴雨时,如对秧田管理不善,亦会发生烂秧或死苗现象。因此,我们以此条件作为低温连阴雨的统计标准,对历年3月中旬至4月上旬出现≥5天的连阴雨天气过程逐一进行统计,并与稳定通过10℃初日对照综合分析,发现以下规律     

民国二十五年八月份各地气象通讯

广州:月内阴雨频仍,上下旬气候温和,平均温度无超过30℃者。中旬温度较高,平均温度高于30℃者四日;最高温度高于35℃者三日,低于30℃者一日。月平均温度28.38℃,较去年低0.5℃。全月雨量241.3公厘(较去年八月158.4公厘多82.9公厘),上旬估133.2公厘,四日雨量最多42.4公厘。阴雨日数估全月三分     

贵州红心猕猴桃膨大期对气温与降水变化的响应

为了探明贵州红心猕猴桃果实膨大期气温和降水对其生长的影响,利用贵州省六盘水市水城县猴场乡猴场村2009—2014年5—7月逐日气温、降水资料及其同期红心猕猴桃果实膨大期的膨大直径资料,分析红心猕猴桃果实膨大对气温、降水的响应。结果表明:近6a来,红心猕猴桃果实膨大期最关键时间为6月,其次是5月。果实膨大最适宜日平均气温为18~24℃,其果实横向膨大平均速度为0.48mm/d、纵向膨大平均速度为0.61mm/d;果实膨大最适宜日降水量为1.1~20.0mm,其果实横向膨大平均速度为0.54mm/d、纵向膨大平均速度为0.60mm/d,相关性达显著水平(P0.05)。红心猕猴桃果实膨大期积温与其产量呈反相关关系,其相关性达到极显著水平(P=0.000);降水量与其产量呈正相关关系,其相关性达到极显著水平(P=0.001);果实膨大期积温小于2100℃、降水量大于670mm,其单产量在2.3kg/m~2以上;果实膨大期积温大于等于2100℃、降水量小于等于410mm,其单产量在2.0kg/m~2以下。建立了与红心猕猴桃果实膨大相关的气温和降水的上、下限指标,为其趋利避害、提高产量提供研究依据。     

江西省2000年10～12月天气气候影响评述

2000年 10～ 12月天气气候条件对农业生产的影响利弊兼有。 10月上旬全省气温偏高，降水充足，对油菜播种出苗有利，基本上达到了一播全苗。受高空低槽影响， 10月中旬～下旬前期我省出现了自 1991年以来最严重的秋季连阴雨天气（烂秋天气）。根据连阴雨天气对农业生产的影响程度，烂秋天气分为轻重 2级。即在 9月中旬～ 11月上旬，持续雨日≥ 5 d、每天日照≤ 1 h为轻度烂秋；持续雨日≥ 7 d、每天日照≤ 1 h为重度烂秋。 10月 17～ 23日，宜春、南昌、抚州等地有 44个县出现了烂秋天气，其中有 25个县达到重度烂秋天气标准。持续阴雨造成…     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on