Distortions at the Border; Integration Inland: Assessing the Effect of WTO Accession on China's Agriculture

The main goal of the paper is to address the impact of the WTO on China's agricultural sector. To accomplish this goal we address two sets of issues. First, we seek to provide measures of the distortions in China's agricultural sector at a time prior to the nation's accession to WTO. This is accomplished by estimating the nominal rates of protection (NPRs) of the agricultural sector's major commodities using a new methodology to account for grain quality differences within China and between China and the world market. Second, we seek to assess how well integrated China's markets are in order to understand which areas of the country and which segments of the farming population will likely be isolated from, or affected by, the changes that WTO will bring. We find that NPRs differ among commodities. Some of China's agricultural commodities are well above and others are well below world market prices. We also find that if increased imports or exports affect China's domestic price at the border, its own domestic markets are mostly integrated so that price shifts in one area will affect prices in most of the rest of China. Our analysis finds, however, that a number of policy and structural factors limit the overall size of the shock.     

Dynamic price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets

Research has not fully explored how Chinese agricultural futures markets perform their price discovery function over time. Our paper examines the role of Chinese agricultural futures markets in the price discovery process based on three well-established measurements of average price discovery contribution, and more importantly, the dynamic price discovery measurement. Using daily futures and spot prices from fourteen agricultural commodities, we find eleven contracts are efficient in price discovery. Besides, market-oriented changes in policies strengthen the price discovery performance of most futures markets, except for commodities that rely heavily on imports from other countries. Our results also suggest that trading activity is particularly important in determining whether thinly traded contracts are efficient in price discovery. Our paper provides a comprehensive judgment involving both average and dynamic price discovery contribution measurements on assessing the efficiency of Chinese agricultural futures markets. Our results might also serve as a reminder that market-oriented reforms in the spot markets of commodities might be useful to intensify the pricing power of the futures markets.     

Similarities in the Consumption Patterns of the Five Asian Tigers

The five countries of Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are considered to be the major Asian economic 'Tigers' behind Asia's growth in the late 1900s. In this paper, we analyze the consumption patterns of these five countries, using the most recent consumption data and employing the system-wide approach. We find that the consumption data from these five countries support a number of empirical regularities, including the 'law of demand' and 'Engel's law'. Based on the estimation results, we find that in all five countries, food, housing and medical care (except in Taiwan) are necessities, while clothing, durables (except in Singapore) and transport are luxuries. Demand for all the commodities is price inelastic. Furthermore, we find that the demand hypothesis, homogeneity, is acceptable for all five countries while Slutsky symmetry is acceptable only for Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. We also find that the preference-independence hypothesis is acceptable for all countries except Japan. Overall, consumption patterns of consumers appear to be similar across the five countries, while some differences exist between Japan and the other four countries.     

War,food rationing,and socioeconomic inequality in Germany during the First World War

Germany experienced a devastating period during the First World War due to severely restricted import possibilities and a general shortage of foodstuffs. This study uses the heights of some 4,000 individuals who served during the Second World War to quantify biological living standards from the 1900s to the 1920s, and focuses primarily on socioeconomic inequality during this period. The results suggest that generally the upper social strata, measured by fathers' occupation, exhibited the tallest average height, followed by the middle and lower classes. These socioeconomic differences became more pronounced during the First World War when the rationing system provided a limited food supply. Wealthier individuals were able to purchase additional foodstuffs on black markets. Therefore, children from upper‐class families experienced only a small decline in average height compared to their counterparts from the middle and lower social strata.     

Agricultural development in industrialising Japan, 1880–1940

This study reviews research examining agricultural development in industrialising Japan. We focus on the (dys)functioning of markets for land, finance, labour and agricultural commodities. We cover topics including land (mis)allocation, size-productivity relationships, tenancy contract choice and Marshallian inefficiency, property rights, microfinance, shock-coping strategies, rural–urban migration and agricultural market integration. The literature reveals that market failures often observed in developing economies were not prominent, except for possibly labour markets. The literature also highlights the roles and administrative capacities of central and local governments. Tight local communities served to reduce transaction costs.     

Nations,clusters and culture: Nycomed and world leadership in the field of x-ray contrast media

Abstract

The topic of the article is to offer a new interpretation of the history of Norway's agricultural protectionism in a West-European context. Agricultural protectionism was not deeply rooted economically, politically or institutionally prior to the Second World War. Before the First World War the most commercially oriented part of Norwegian agriculture – milk production and the dairy industry – was export-oriented. Norway was the last country to join the protectionist wave in the late nineteenth century and in practice it followed the most liberal trade policies in agricultural products next to Britain, Denmark and the Netherlands. It is argued that the 1920s were generally relatively more important and the 1930s relatively less important for later developments than assumed in the most of the literature on agricultural protectionism.     

Alternative evaluation of the cost of the capital stock and financial position of the Russian railroad industry

Even a quick analysis of official information about the activities in the Russian railroad industry in the past decade shows that the industry has undoubtedly achieved successful results, the significance of which goes far beyond the transport sector. It was as long ago as the late 1920s when S.G. Strumilin wrote that the transportation industry must develop faster than the entire economy. If the transportation resources are not increased, the industry will not be a powerful factor able to encourage industrial development, but will rather restrain it greatly [1]. This study answers the question regarding to what extent the positive results of recent years have allowed to overcome the previous negative inertia and, what is more important, whether the industry has managed to increase its transportation resources and create infrastructural facilities to develop the national economy. In order to find answers, the material and technical base and financial position of the country??s railroad industry are assessed and its prospects for development are evaluated. The main calculations are based on data for 2006 and 2007, i.e., the years that in many respects appeared to be the most successful period in the post-Soviet history of the national railroad industry.     

Government decisions before and during the First World War and the living standards in Germany during a drastic natural experiment

The First World War hit Germany severely, particularly the agricultural sector, because the outbreak came unexpected and its duration exceeded all expectations. Many resources necessary for agricultural production were required by the war economy and led to shortages and shrinking supplies. Many agricultural laborers were drafted and the blockade imposed by the allies prevented Germany from a great deal of imports. As a consequence, the nutritional situation was devastating, particularly after 1916, and hit all groups of the German society.The period under observation provides one of most drastic natural experiments in the 20th century. This study uses anthropometric data from German soldiers who served in the Second World War to trace living standards between the 1900s and the 1920s. In contrast to other approaches, this paper is able to distinguish between social groups by occupation, religious denominatio\n, regional origin, and city size. The results suggest that although all social strata were hit by famine conditions, the height of farmers, urban citizens, Catholics, and especially individuals born in the highly integrated food-import regions along the coast and the banks of the Rhine declined most.     

Commanding the Middle: The American Agenda at the Kennedy Round

The Kennedy Round of GATT was an opportunity for Australia and New Zealand to achieve their commercial interests of expanding agricultural exports and adjusting trade flows to the power of the United States, the loss of preferential markets in Britain and the new presence of the European Common Market. Both found commonalities with America, both managed to assert some of their concerns, but both also were decidedly junior and weaker partners to the free-trading United States in the GATT regime. The issues explored in this article range from trade in commodities to the protests of the Third World.     

农产品价格影响因素的文献综述

理清近年来农产品价格大幅度上涨的原因对于建立农产品目标价格制度显得尤为重要。从国别视角出发来对现有关于农产品价格影响因素的研究进行了综述,其中国内因素视角分为农产品生产成本、城乡居民收入、货币供给量、国内通货膨胀四个小专题,国际因素视角分为国际农产品价格、国际石油价格、汇率、其他外部因素四个小专题。最后指出,影响农产品价格的因素主要还是供求状况,其他因素要么是通过影响农产品的供求来影响价格,要么对农产品价格的影响程度不大,或者是不同学者得出了不同的结论。     

Domestic railroad infrastructure and exports: Evidence from the Silk Route

By exploiting a quasi-experiment affecting only non-monetary transport cost, this study tests the impact of an exogenous railroad speed enhancement and capacity expansion project (RSCP) on China's exports to Central Asia. The Longhai and Lanxin lines in China, linking the East and the West, were upgraded on October 21, 2000, improving freight efficiency between Eastern China and Xinjiang, the gateway from China to Central Asia. By employing a transaction-level export database, empirical results find that exports freighted on the upgraded rail lines increased in value by approximately 30%, compared with other freight modes. The results are robust by excluding specific observations with respect to the demand fluctuations and macroeconomic shocks, and including additional controls. The intensive margin, but not the extensive margin, played a major role in explaining the impact of railroad upgrades on exports. In addition, the project caused spatial reorganization in exporting activities. The share of Xinjiang exporters in the Central Asia market shrank, while Xinjiang's exports to other international markets expanded through better accessibility to the coast.     

A leader in an emerging new international market: the determinants of French wine exports, 1848–1938

The objective of this article is to provide an in-depth study of France's performance in the new international wine market that began to take shape from the middle of the nineteenth century. We analyse the main determinants of its success in exporting ordinary and high-quality wine using a gravity model for both types of wine. The article shows how France lost foreign markets in the ordinary wine sector, due to difficulties in maintaining its exports, which resulted from the decrease in production caused by the phylloxera plague and increasing competition from growing numbers of producers who were more efficient at producing these types of wines. However, in the high-quality wine market, French exporters enjoyed considerable success, increasing their exports thanks to their efforts to offer a product that was highly valued abroad and the use of modern marketing and sales techniques. The exports benefited from the fall in transport costs and French colonial expansion. However, exports of both products were severely affected by a series of major events, including the First World War, the Russian Revolution, Prohibition in the US, and the Great Depression. This case study of the wine market shows that the collapse of the first globalization was not the same for all products.     

Empirical information on beef production in regions of Namibia as an aid to restructuring the livestock farming industry along equitable lines

The paper considers the regional influence of prices and access to markets on beef numbers in Namibia, given the present inequalities, by using econometric analysis of time‐series data. This is relevant because Namibia is in a process of structural adjustment following independence in 1990. and in view of the livestock industry's importance in the Namibian economy. The results accentuate the role of access to markets in beef production in Namibia. Where access is severely restricted due to lack of infrastructure, such as processing facilities and adequate transport for example in the communal regions, beef producers do not act on price incentives, or cltmatological and ecological variables. However, beef producers with limited access to markets, mainly due to high transport costs, do react to environmental changes, but not to price incentives. Only producers with easy access to markets react to both environmental changes and price incentives. The major conclusion is that the present production and marketing structure in Namibia with respect to beef is probably not optimal. The results highlight the need for an overall policy which accounts for all related industries, producers, consumers and other relevant factors simultaneously.     

The emergence of agricultural commodity markets in China

By conscious design, reformers in China only gradually focused their efforts on expanding the role of markets for the allocation of goods and services in the economy. As a result, markets—especially in the agricultural sector—developed slowly. Throughout the 1990s there was a heated debate about the degree to which markets had emerged. The main goal in this paper is to bring together a number of simple and revealing facts on the emergence of China's markets. To do so we examine several sets of price data and analyze spatial patterns of market prices contours over time and text the extent to which market prices are integrated among China's regions. According to our analysis, we find that to a remarkable degree, agricultural commodity markets have emerged; price patterns look much like those in market economies in the rest of the world and prices are highly integrated across space.     

Market information: Selling intensity and the dynamics of international economic integration

Summary We may assume the more a firm has traded previously with a particular party, or a particular country, the lower the costs of market information will be. When a firm starts to trade with a new country, we may further assume that the greater the cultural distance is between this country and its own country, the larger the information costs will be.A statistical study of the Swedish imports of selected consumers goods after the establishment of EFTA indicates that these assumptions hold true for non-selling intensive commodities, but not for selling intensive commodities.The research on which this paper is based is a part of a more general study of how various knowledge factors influence international business decisions, which will be published in a forthcoming bookHow Foreign is Foreign Trade? A first draft of the paper was written during a stay at the International Institute of Management in Berlin, and I am grateful for the aid which I recieved from the Institute's staff during its preparation. I am also most grateful Michal Groniewitz at the Institute of Business Studies in Uppsala whose time-consuming and tedious task it has been to prepare the tables on Swedish imports, on which the statistical part of the study has been based.     

Going multilateral? Financial markets' access and the League of Nations loans, 1923–8

Why are international financial institutions important? This article reassesses the role of the loans issued with the support of the League of Nations. These long‐term loans constituted the financial basis of the League's strategy to restore the productive basis of countries in central and eastern Europe in the aftermath of the First World War. In this article, it is argued that the League's loans accomplished the task for which they were conceived because they allowed countries in financial distress to access capital markets. The League adopted an innovative system of funds management and monitoring that ensured the compliance of borrowing countries with its programmes. Empirical evidence is provided to show that financial markets had a positive view of the League's role as an external, multilateral agent, solving the credibility problem of borrowing countries and allowing them to engage in economic and institutional reforms. This success was achieved despite the League's own lack of lending resources. It is also demonstrated that this multilateral solution performed better than the bilateral arrangements adopted by other governments in eastern Europe because of its lower borrowing and transaction costs.     

Financial Integration in the 1920s: A Cointegration Approach

Financial Integration in the 1920s: A Cointegration Approach. - This paper applies the concept of cointegration to analyze the foreign exchange market during the 1920s. The data set consists of daily spot and forward exchange rates for the U. S. dollar, French franc, Belgian franc, Italian lira and German mark, each quoted with respect to the British pound. The authors find that the future spot and forward exchange rates for the U.S., France, Belgium, and Italy are cointegrated. Using a multivariate test for cointegration, they find no evidence of cointegration across markets. There is weak evidence of cointegration among the two neighboring economies of France and Belgium.     

Woolgrowers, brokers and the debate over the sale of the Australian wool clip, 1920-1925

Prior to the First World War, the selling of the Australian wool clip rested firmly in the hands of the large woolbroking firms. An agreement between the British and Australian governments during the war saw many of the wool-selling functions of broking firms taken over by the Central Wool Committee. At the conclusion of hostilities, brokers moved to regain their role in the market. However, market conditions had changed. On an international level, traditional trading relationships had broken down, leaving commodity markets unstable and prices unpredictable. On a local level, woolgrowers had benefited from the wartime orderly marketing scheme and the high price guaranteed by the British government for their wool clip. As a result, they had begun to demand a greater role in the selling arrangements of their clip. This paper investigates the debates over the sale of the wool clip in the 1920s and how woolbrokers and growers eventually arrived at an understanding as to the manner in which the market should operate.     

Innovation and upheaval: early growth in Greek capital market listings and IPOs from 1880 to the Second World War in the Athens Stock Exchange†

The establishment and growth of the Greek stock market were coincident with development episodes, financial upheavals, and geographic expansions of the country's economy over the period 1880–1940. This article explores the growth of the Athens Stock Exchange through new listings and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We examine changes in exchange governance and listing requirements. On a theme not addressed before , we find that simple listings were far more numerous than actual IPOs. IPOs in Greece remained unregulated throughout the period. Their under‐pricing became pronounced in the later parts of the period, especially the 1920s. The study presents data on ‘quasi‐IPOs’ (that is, capital increases shortly after listing) and shows that they offer a more accurate assessment of the demand for the financing of listing firms in an emerging market. Robust evidence is presented to show that as the Exchange developed it also underwent a change in character, becoming more oriented to the domestic market and catering to smaller firms in domestic manufacturing in the post‐First World War era that marked the end of early globalization.