Are global warming and economic growth compatible? Evidence from five OPEC countries?

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions, income, energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971–2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia only. The long run forcing variables for income are determined to be employment and energy for Saudi Arabia. In Indonesia, Algeria, Nigeria, and Venezuela, there is no cointegration between income and energy. Secondly we question the long run Granger causality between carbon emissions, energy use, and income. Our results suggest that none of the countries need to sacrifice economic growth to decrease their emission levels. Indonesia and Nigeria may contribute to emissions reduction via energy conservation without negative long run effects on economic growth.     

广东省主体功能区碳排放特征及驱动因素研究

基于不同类型主体功能区的发展定位与碳排放驱动要素分解,提出有针对性的区域差异化低碳发展路径是推进主体功能区可持续发展的重要内容。基于调研资料,分析了广东省各主体功能区自2010年以来的碳排放演变特征,从人口效应、经济效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应以及碳排放因子效应五个因素对造成不同主体功能区碳排放差异的原因进行了分析。要素分解发现,经济规模和人口数量增长对优化开发区碳排放量增长的贡献率最大;产业结构的优化从2012年开始成为使优化开发区碳排放量降低的影响因素,对重点开发区和生态发展区碳排放量降低的作用仍不明显;产业能源强度变动均使三类功能区碳排放量降低,但是贡献率呈现明显差异。建议：（1）加快发展优化开发区服务业,积极推动实施居民碳排放管理;（2）重点开发区应以提高能效和推进低碳技术为主实施低碳转型;（3）生态发展区要大力推广清洁能源,促使农业低碳化发展。     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

Potential options to reduce GHG emissions in Venezuela

This paper presents a summary of the technologies and practices that could be implemented in Venezuela in order to contribute to both climate change mitigation and national development efforts. The mitigation analysis concentrates on options to reduce CO₂ emissions generated from the energy sector and land-use change.

From the mitigation options analyzed for the energy sector it was determined that the most effective are those in the transportation sector (switching to larger capacity vehicles, reduced private vehicle share, and switching fuels for public transportation from gasoline to natural gas), both in terms of contribution to emissions reduction and costs. Regarding the options for industry, boilers conversion from liquids to natural gas shows negative cost, but to a considerably lower extent that for the transportation sector. Efficiency improvements of natural gas boilers, which presents close to zero cost, is more effective in reducing emissions than boiler conversion. Increase in hydro power generation is the alternative with the highest total cost but it is very effective in reducing emissions.

From the mitigation options analyzed for land-use change, it was established that the forest sector has a considerable potential for reducing CO₂ emissions through the adoption of sustainable forest practices, especially by slowing the rate of forest loss and degradation. Maintenance of already existing biomass in natural forests should be the first priority of forest measures to reduce the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere. Forest protection and management of native forest represent the two options with the highest carbon conservation potential and the lowest carbon unit cost. Expansion of the forest cover through the development of intensive forest plantations also presents a high potential to offset carbon emissions in Venezuela.

An analysis of the barriers to mitigation options implementation shows that in the energy sector, low energy prices represent the main barrier to any mitigation program. Another important limitation to mitigation strategies implementation is the lack of institutional capacity and legal instruments for developing the mitigation measures. In the forest sector the primary causes of forest clearing in the country are not related to forest activities, so the definition of feasible mitigation options will depend upon a good understanding of other economic sectors and how they account for land-use change. Land tenure, rural poverty, political interests, and weak implementation of land-use planning instruments and environmental laws are considered to be the key limitations to any effort dealing with forest conservation. Land tenure, economic factors, and lack of incentives represent some of the most important barriers to the development of forest plantations and agroforestry systems in the country.     

Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach

The study probes cointegration and causality between carbon emissions and economic growth for India using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen–Juselius maximum likelihood procedure in a multivariate framework by incorporating energy supply, investment and employment for time span 1971–2006. The study fails to establish long-run equilibrium relationship and long term causality between carbon emissions and economic growth; however, there exists a bi-directional short-run causality between the two. Hence, in the short-run, any effort to reduce carbon emissions could lead to a fall in the national income. This study also establishes unidirectional short-run causality running from economic growth to energy supply and energy supply to carbon emissions. The absence of causality running from energy supply to economic growth implies that in India, energy conservation and energy efficiency measures can be implemented to minimize the wastage of energy across value chain. Such measures would narrow energy demand–supply gap. Absence of long-run causality between carbon emissions and economic growth implies that in the long-run, focus should be given on harnessing energy from clean sources to curb carbon emissions, which would not affect the country’s economic growth.     

Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea,East Africa

We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EE/RE are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study, we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in EE/RE. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

Modelling for insight: Does financial development improve environmental quality?

The need to formulate policies to mitigate global warming has necessitated the need to understand the drivers of carbon emissions. The current study utilises the system-generalised method of moments to investigate the direct and indirect effect of financial development on carbon emissions for 46 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 2000–2015. Using several indicators of financial development, the empirical results reveal that financial development measured using broad money, domestic credit to the private sector and domestic credit to private sector by banks increase carbon emissions while FDI, liquid liabilities and domestic credit to private sector by financial sector do not affect carbon emissions. The results show that none of the financial development indicators exerts a significant nonlinear effect on carbon emissions. The results further indicate that FDI moderates economic growth to reduce carbon emissions but does not moderate energy consumption to affect carbon emissions. Contrarily, financial development measured using broad money, domestic credit to private sector by banks, domestic credit to private sector by financial sector and domestic credit to private sector moderate energy consumption to increase carbon emissions while the first three indicators of financial development moderate economic growth to increase carbon emissions. The results do not confirm the existence of the EKC hypothesis but confirm that population size, energy consumption, trade openness, urbanisation and economic growth increase carbon emissions. There are some variations in these results across regional and income groupings. These findings do advance not only knowledge but also have several implications for sustainable development policy.     

Driving factors behind carbon dioxide emissions in China: A modified production-theoretical decomposition analysis

Research on the driving factors behind carbon dioxide emission changes in China can inform better carbon emission reduction policies and help develop a low-carbon economy. As one of important methods, production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) has been widely used to understand these driving factors. To avoid the infeasibility issue in solving the linear programming, this study proposed a modified PDA approach to decompose carbon dioxide emission changes into seven drivers. Using 2005–2010 data, the study found that economic development was the largest factor of increasing carbon dioxide emissions. The second factor was energy structure (reflecting potential carbon), and the third factor was low energy efficiency. Technological advances, energy intensity reductions, and carbon dioxide emission efficiency improvements were the negative driving factors reducing carbon dioxide emission growth rates. Carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors varied significantly across east, central and west China.     

Energy efficiency,sustainability and economic growth

This paper explores two linked theses related to the role energy in economic development, and potential sources of increased energy efficiency for continued growth with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first thesis is that, while reduced GHG emissions are essential for long-term global sustainability, the usual policy recommendation of increasing energy costs by introducing a carbon tax may be relatively ineffective under current market structures and have an unnecessarily adverse impact on economic growth. Our second thesis is that there exists a practical near-term strategy for reducing GHG emissions while simultaneously encouraging continued technology-driven economic growth. Moreover, this strategy does not require radical new technologies, but rather improved regulation or—more precisely—better deregulation of the electric power sector.     

Energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in five Latin American countries: Changes from 1990 to 2006 and perspectives

This study examines the primary energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela during the period 1990-2006. It also reviews important reforms in the energy sector of these countries as well as the promotion of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES). Using a decomposition analysis, results indicate that even though significant reductions in energy intensity have been achieved in Colombia, Mexico and in a lesser extent in Brazil and Argentina, the reduction of CO₂ emissions in these countries has not been significant due to an increased dependence on fossil fuels in their energy mix. Although the Latin American region has an important experience in the promotion of EE programs and renewable sources, the energy agenda of the examined countries focused mostly on the energy reforms during the analyzed period. The policy review suggests that further governmental support and strong public policies towards a more sustainable energy path are required to encourage a low carbon future in the region.     

Opportunities to change development pathways toward lower greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency

There is a multiplicity of development pathways in which low energy sector emissions are not necessarily associated with low economic growth. However, changes in development pathways can rarely be imposed from the top. On this basis, examples of energy efficiency opportunities to change development pathways toward lower emissions are presented in this paper. We review opportunities at the sectoral and macro level. The potential for action on nonclimate policies that influence energy use and emissions are presented. Examples are drawn from policies already adopted and implemented in the energy sector. The paper discusses relationships between energy efficiency policies and their synergies and tradeoffs with sustainable development and greenhouse gas emissions. It points to ways that energy efficiency could be mainstreamed into development choices.     

昆明市能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及对策研究

随着昆明市社会经济的快速发展,能源消耗及环境问题日益严重,减少二氧化碳排放、建设低碳城市已成为昆明市可持续发展的关键.基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立了因素分解模型,并应用对数平均Divisia指数方法(LMDI)对昆明市2005—2010年能源消费碳排放变化情况进行了分解分析.研究表明:现阶段昆明市能源消费碳排放最大的影响因素是经济产出规模,其贡献率达到155.76%;而能源效率仅次于经济产出呈现负效应,其贡献率为-87.68%;其它表现为正效应的影响因素分别为产业结构、人口规模、产业能源消费碳排放,其贡献率分别为14.36%、13.42%、4.13%.“十二五”及未来一段时期,调整产业结构、优化能源结构、提高能源效率及发展碳汇项目是昆明市二氧化碳减排的重点任务,为昆明市低碳城市建设提供保障.     

基于灰色关联分析法的东莞市工业结构与碳排放的关系

为推行节能减排、发展低碳经济并优化城市产业结构,分析影响碳排放量的因素是关键环节。以东莞市为例,采用IPCC碳排放估算方法测算了2005～2010年工业各部门的碳排放量,并采用灰色关联分析法分析了31个工业部门经济发展对碳排放总量的影响程度。结果表明,城市的碳排放量与工业结构密切相关,必须优化结构并提高清洁能源比重。     

低碳背景下我国电力系统发展模式及实施路径

针对低碳发展已成为时代的需求和提高生活质量的渴求,提出了我国低碳电力系统发展模式,从优化能源结构、加强电煤运输管理、发展节能输配电技术、加强电力需求侧管理及完善节能减排机制等5方面探讨了我国低碳电力系统发展具体实施路径,并给出了我国低碳电力系统的发展保障措施。     

Carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy

This study investigates the long and short run relationships among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in India at the aggregated and disaggregated levels during 1971–2014. The autoregressive distributed lag model is employed for the cointegration analyses and the vector error correction model is applied to determine the direction of causality between variables. Results show that a long run cointegration relationship exists and that the environmental Kuznets curve is validated at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. Furthermore, energy (total energy, gas, oil, electricity and coal) consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions and a feedback effect exists between economic growth and carbon emissions. Thus, energy-efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The present study provides policy makers with new directions in drafting comprehensive policies with lasting impacts on the economy, energy consumption and environment towards sustainable development.     

Policies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions in the UK

The UK differs from may other industrialized nations in that its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use have declined in recent years despite relatively rapid economic growth. In all sectors but transport, substantial reductions have already occurred in the level of carbon emissions per unit of GDP output. At the same time, a number of official and unofficial studies have pointed out that the UK has one of the largest remaining potentials amongst comparable industrialized countries for achieving further CO₂ reductions through the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency and fuel switching measures. This paper discusses past and present patterns of energy use and carbons emissions in the UK. The analysis then examines historical trends in UK energy policy and presents policy options for further reducing the UK's energy-use and carbon emissions in the future.     

Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission

In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies, an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO₂ emission. To this end, we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity, which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO₂ emissions. Further, the global energy interconnection (GEI) scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis, the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO₂ emission has been analyzed. Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO₂ emissions, whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction. A numerical analysis, performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions, suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO₂ emissions, thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future. Moreover, the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.     

广东省低碳发展的能源消耗与CO2排放分析

作为中国经济大省、人口大省和能源消费大省,广东省先行启动国家低碳省试点工作,率先开展碳交易市场建设试点。能源消费特征和CO2排放情况是低碳发展的基础,从广东省经济发展入手,分析了广东省终端能源消费及构成、单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值能耗等能源消费特征,估算了广东省2005年至2010年的CO2排放量,并预测了广东省“十二五”期间的能源消费和CO2排放量,为节能减碳和国家低碳试点工作提供基础数据和决策依据。     

The effects of environmental regulation and technical progress on CO2 Kuznets curve: An evidence from China

Based on environmental Kuznets curve theory, a panel data model which takes environmental regulation and technical progress as its moderating factors was developed to analyse the institutional and technical factors that affect the path of low-carbon economic development. The results indicated that there was a CO₂ emission Kuznets curve seen in China. Environmental regulation had a significant moderating effect on the curve, and the inflection of CO₂ emissions could come substantially earlier under stricter environmental regulation. Meanwhile, the impact of technical progress on the low-carbon economic development path had a longer hysteresis effect but restrained CO₂ emission during its increasing stage and accelerated its downward trend during the decreasing stage which was conducive to emission reduction. Strict environmental regulation could force the high-carbon emitting industries to transfer from the eastern regions to the central or the western regions of China, which would make the CO₂ Kuznets curve higher in its increasing stage and lower in its decreasing stage than that under looser regulation. Furthermore, energy efficiency, energy structure, and industrial structure exerted a significant direct impact on CO₂ emissions; we should consider the above factors as essential in the quest for low-carbon economic development.