Should a coal-fired power plant be replaced or retrofitted?

In a cap-and-trade system, a power plant operator can choose to operate while paying for the necessary emissions allowances, retrofit emissions controls to the plant, or replace the unit with a new plant. Allowance prices are uncertain, as are the timing and stringency of requirements for control of mercury and carbon emissions. We model the evolution of allowance prices for SO2, NOx, Hg, and CO2 using geometric Brownian motion with drift, volatility, and jumps, and use an options-based analysis to find the value of the alternatives. In the absence of a carbon price, only if the owners have a planning horizon longer than 30 years would they replace a conventional coal-fired plant with a high-performance unit such as a supercritical plant; otherwise, they would install SO2 and NOx, controls on the existing unit. An expectation that the CO2 price will reach $50/t in 2020 makes the installation of an IGCC with carbon capture and sequestration attractive today, even for planning horizons as short as 20 years. A carbon price below $40/t is unlikely to produce investments in carbon capture for electric power.     

Are renewables portfolio standards cost-effective emission abatement policy?

Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) could be an important policy instrument for 3P and 4P control. We examine the costs of renewable power, accounting for the federal production tax credit, the market value of a renewable credit, and the value of producing electricity without emissions of SO2, NOx, mercury, and CO2. We focus on Texas, which has a large RPS and is the largest U.S. electricity producer and one of the largest emitters of pollutants and CO2. We estimate the private and social costs of wind generation in an RPS compared with the current cost of fossil generation, accounting for the pollution and CO2 emissions. We find that society paid about 5.7 cent/kWh more for wind power, counting the additional generation, transmission, intermittency, and other costs. The higher cost includes credits amounting to 1.1 cent/kWh in reduced SO2, NOx, and Hg emissions. These pollution reductions and lower CO2 emissions could be attained at about the same cost using pulverized coal (PC) or natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS); the reductions could be obtained more cheaply with an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with CCS.     

Water use at pulverized coal power plants with postcombustion carbon capture and storage

Coal-fired power plants account for nearly 50% of U.S. electricity supply and about a third of U.S. emissions of CO(2), the major greenhouse gas (GHG) associated with global climate change. Thermal power plants also account for 39% of all freshwater withdrawals in the U.S. To reduce GHG emissions from coal-fired plants, postcombustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems are receiving considerable attention. Current commercial amine-based capture systems require water for cooling and other operations that add to power plant water requirements. This paper characterizes and quantifies water use at coal-burning power plants with and without CCS and investigates key parameters that influence water consumption. Analytical models are presented to quantify water use for major unit operations. Case study results show that, for power plants with conventional wet cooling towers, approximately 80% of total plant water withdrawals and 86% of plant water consumption is for cooling. The addition of an amine-based CCS system would approximately double the consumptive water use of the plant. Replacing wet towers with air-cooled condensers for dry cooling would reduce plant water use by about 80% (without CCS) to about 40% (with CCS). However, the cooling system capital cost would approximately triple, although costs are highly dependent on site-specific characteristics. The potential for water use reductions with CCS is explored via sensitivity analyses of plant efficiency and other key design parameters that affect water resource management for the electric power industry.     

Carbon dioxide capture from atmospheric air using sodium hydroxide spray

In contrast to conventional carbon capture systems for power plants and other large point sources, the system described in this paper captures CO2 directly from ambient air. This has the advantages that emissions from diffuse sources and past emissions may be captured. The objective of this research is to determine the feasibility of a NaOH spray-based contactor for use in an air capture system by estimating the cost and energy requirements per unit CO2 captured. A prototype system is constructed and tested to measure CO2 absorption, energy use, and evaporative water loss and compared with theoretical predictions. A numerical model of drop collision and coalescence is used to estimate operating parameters for a full-scale system, and the cost of operating the system per unit CO2 captured is estimated. The analysis indicates that CO2 capture from air for climate change mitigation is technically feasible using off-the-shelf technology. Drop coalescence significantly decreases the CO2 absorption efficiency; however, fan and pump energy requirements are manageable. Water loss is significant (20 mol H2O/mol CO2 at 15 degrees C and 65% RH) but can be lowered by appropriately designing and operating the system. The cost of CO2 capture using NaOH spray (excluding solution recovery and CO2 sequestration, which may be comparable) in the full-scale system is 96 $/ton-CO2 in the base case, and ranges from 53 to 127 $/ton-CO2 under alternate operating parameters and assumptions regarding capital costs and mass transfer rate. The low end of the cost range is reached by a spray with 50 microm mean drop diameter, which is achievable with commercially available spray nozzles.     

CO₂ capture from cement plants using oxyfired precalcination and/or calcium looping

This paper compares two alternatives to capture CO(2) from cement plants: the first is designed to exploit the material and energy synergies with calcium looping technologies, CaL, and the second implements an oxyfired circulating fluidized bed precalcination step. The necessary mass and heat integration balances for these two options are solved and compared with a common reference cement plant and a cost analysis exercise is carried out. The CaL process applied to the flue gases of a clinker kiln oven is substantially identical to those proposed for similar applications to power plants flue gases. It translates into avoided cost of of 23 $/tCO(2) capturing up to 99% of the total CO(2) emitted in the plant. The avoided cost of an equivalent system with an oxyfired CFBC precalcination only, goes down to 16 $/tCO(2) but only captures 89% of the CO(2) emitted in the plant. Both cases reveal that the application of CaL or oxyfired CFBC for precalcination of CaCO(3) in a cement plant, at scales in the order of 50 MWth (referred to the oxyfired CFB calciner) is an important early opportunity for the development of CaL processes in large scale industrial applications as well as for the development of zero emissions cement plants.     

Cost structure of a postcombustion CO2 capture system using CaO

This paper presents the basic economics of an emerging concept for CO2 capture from flue gases in power plants. The complete system includes three key cost components: a full combustion power plant, a second power plant working as an oxy-fired fluidized bed calciner, and a fluidized bed carbonator interconnected with the calciner and capturing CO2 from the combustion power plant. The simplicity in the economic analysis is possible because the key cost data for the two major first components are well established in the open literature. It is shown that there is clear scope for a breakthrough in capture cost to around 15 $/t of CO2 avoided with this system. This is mainly because the capture system is generating additional power (from the additional coal fed to the calciner) and because the avoided CO2 comes from the capture of the CO2 generated by the coal fed to the calciner and the CO2 captured (as CaCO3) from the flue gases of the existing power plant, that is also released in the calciner.     

Reducing CO2 emissions and energy consumption of heat-integrated distillation systems

Distillation systems are energy and power intensive processes and contribute significantly to the greenhouse gases emissions (e.g. carbon dioxide). Reducing CO2 emissions is an absolute necessity and expensive challenge to the chemical process industries in orderto meetthe environmental targets as agreed in the Kyoto Protocol. A simple model for the calculation of CO2 emissions from heat-integrated distillation systems is introduced, considering typical process industry utility devices such as boilers, furnaces, and turbines. Furnaces and turbines consume large quantities of fuels to provide electricity and process heats. As a result, they produce considerable amounts of CO2 gas to the atmosphere. Boilers are necessary to supply steam for heating purposes; besides, they are also significant emissions contributors. The model is used in an optimization-based approach to optimize the process conditions of an existing crude oil atmospheric tower in order to reduce its CO2 emissions and energy demands. It is also applied to generate design options to reduce the emissions from a novel internally heat-integrated distillation column (HIDiC). A gas turbine can be integrated with these distillation systems for larger emissions reduction and further energy savings. Results show that existing crude oil installations can save up to 21% in energy and 22% in emissions, when the process conditions are optimized. Additionally, by integrating a gas turbine, the total emissions can be reduced further by 48%. Internal heat-integrated columns can be a good alternative to conventional heat pump and other energy intensive close boiling mixtures separations. Energy savings can reach up to 100% with respect to reboiler heat requirements. Emissions of these configurations are cut down by up to 83%, compared to conventional units, and by 36%, with respect to heat pump alternatives. Importantly, cost savings and more profit are gained in parallel to emissions minimization.     

Long-Term Energy and Climate Implications of Carbon Capture and Storage Deployment Strategies in the US Coal-Fired Electricity Fleet

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.     

Comparative life-cycle air emissions of coal, domestic natural gas, LNG, and SNG for electricity generation

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that in the coming decades the United States' natural gas (NG) demand for electricity generation will increase. Estimates also suggest that NG supply will increasingly come from imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Additional supplies of NG could come domestically from the production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) via coal gasification-methanation. The objective of this study is to compare greenhouse gas (GHG), SOx, and NOx life-cycle emissions of electricity generated with NG/LNG/SNG and coal. This life-cycle comparison of air emissions from different fuels can help us better understand the advantages and disadvantages of using coal versus globally sourced NG for electricity generation. Our estimates suggest that with the current fleet of power plants, a mix of domestic NG, LNG, and SNG would have lower GHG emissions than coal. If advanced technologies with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) are used, however, coal and a mix of domestic NG, LNG, and SNG would have very similar life-cycle GHG emissions. For SOx and NOx we find there are significant emissions in the upstream stages of the NG/ LNG life-cycles, which contribute to a larger range in SOx and NOx emissions for NG/LNG than for coal and SNG.     

Implications of Near-Term Coal Power Plant Retirement for SO(2) and NO(X) and Life Cycle GHG Emissions

Regulations monitoring SO(2), NO(X), mercury, and other metal emissions in the U.S. will likely result in coal plant retirement in the near-term. Life cycle assessment studies have previously estimated the environmental benefits of displacing coal with natural gas for electricity generation, by comparing systems that consist of individual natural gas and coal power plants. However, such system comparisons may not be appropriate to analyze impacts of coal plant retirement in existing power fleets. To meet this limitation, simplified economic dispatch models for PJM, MISO, and ERCOT regions are developed in this study to examine changes in regional power plant dispatch that occur when coal power plants are retired. These models estimate the order in which existing power plants are dispatched to meet electricity demand based on short-run marginal costs, with cheaper plants being dispatched first. Five scenarios of coal plant retirement are considered: retiring top CO(2) emitters, top NO(X) emitters, top SO(2) emitters, small and inefficient plants, and old and inefficient plants. Changes in fuel use, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (including uncertainty), and SO(2) and NO(X) emissions are estimated. Life cycle GHG emissions were found to decrease by less than 4% in almost all scenarios modeled. In addition, changes in marginal damage costs due to SO(2), and NO(X) emissions are estimated using the county level marginal damage costs reported in the Air Pollution Emissions Experiments and Policy (APEEP) model, which are a proxy for measuring regional impacts of SO(2) and NO(X) emissions. Results suggest that location specific parameters should be considered within environmental policy frameworks targeting coal plant retirement, to account for regional variability in the benefits of reducing the impact of SO(2) and NO(X) emissions.     

Assessment of potential carbon dioxide reductions due to biomass-coal cofiring in the United States

Cofiring biomass with coal in existing power plants offers a relatively inexpensive and efficient option for increasing near-term biomass energy utilization. Potential benefits include reduced emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur, and nitrogen oxides and development of biomass energy markets. To understand the economics of this strategy, we develop a model to calculate electricity and pollutant mitigation costs with explicit characterization of uncertainty in fuel and technology costs and variability in fuel properties. The model is first used to evaluate the plant-level economics of cofiring as a function of biomass cost. It is then integrated with state-specific coal consumption and biomass supply estimates to develop national supply curves for cofire electricity and carbon mitigation. A delivered cost of biomass below 15 dollars per ton is required for cofire to be competitive with existing coal-based generation. Except at low biomass prices (less than 15 dollars per ton), cofiring is unlikely to be competitive for NOx or SOx control, but it can provide comparatively inexpensive control of CO2 emissions: we estimate that emissions reductions of 100 Mt-CO2/year (a 5% reduction in electric-sector emissions) can be achieved at 25 +/- 20 dollars/tC. The 2-3 year time horizon for deployment--compared with 10-20 years for other CO2 mitigation options--makes cofiring particularly attractive.     

CO2 mitigation via capture and chemical conversion in seawater

A lab-scale seawater/mineral carbonate gas scrubber was found to remove up to 97% of CO(2) in a simulated flue gas stream at ambient temperature and pressure, with a large fraction of this carbon ultimately converted to dissolved calcium bicarbonate. After full equilibration with air, up to 85% of the captured carbon was retained in solution, that is, it did not degas or precipitate. Thus, above-ground CO(2) hydration and mineral carbonate scrubbing may provide a relatively simple point-source CO(2) capture and storage scheme at coastal locations. Such low-tech CO(2) mitigation could be especially relevant for retrofitting to existing power plants and for deployment in the developing world, the primary source of future CO(2) emissions. Addition of the resulting alkaline solution to the ocean may benefit marine ecosystems that are currently threatened by acidification, while also allowing the utilization of the vast potential of the sea to safely sequester anthropogenic carbon. This approach in essence hastens Nature's own very effective but slow CO(2) mitigation process; carbonate mineral weathering is a major consumer of excess atmospheric CO(2) and ocean acidity on geologic times scales.     

Application of amine-tethered solid sorbents for direct CO2 capture from the ambient air

While current carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies for large point sources can help address the impact of CO(2) buildup on global climate change, these technologies can at best slow the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO(2) concentration. In contrast, the direct CO(2) capture from ambient air offers the potential to be a truly carbon negative technology. We propose here that amine-based solid adsorbents have significant promise as key components of a hypothetical air capture process. Specifically, the CO(2) capture characteristics of hyperbranched aminosilica (HAS) materials are evaluated here using CO(2) mixtures that simulate ambient atmospheric concentrations (400 ppm CO(2) = "air capture") as well as more traditional conditions simulating flue gas (10% CO(2)). The air capture experiments demonstrate that the adsorption capacity of HAS adsorbents are only marginally influenced even with a significant dilution of the CO(2) concentration by a factor of 250, while capturing CO(2) reversibly without significant degradation of performance in multicyclic operation. These results suggest that solid amine-based air capture processes have the potential to be an effective approach to extracting CO(2) from the ambient air.     

An investigation of synthetic fuel production via chemical looping

Producing liquid hydrocarbon fuels with a reduced greenhouse gas emissions profile would ease the transition to a carbon-neutral energy sector with the transportation industry being the immediate beneficiary followed by the power industry. Revolutionary solutions in transportation, such as electricity and hydrogen, depend on the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies and/or renewable energy systems. Additionally, high oil prices may increase the development of unconventional sources, such as tar sands, that have a higher emissions profile. One process that is gaining interest is a system for producing reduced carbon fuels though chemical looping technologies. An investigation of the implications of such a process using methane and carbon dioxide that is reformed to yield methanol has been done. An important aspect of the investigation is the use of off-the-shelf technologies to achieve the results. The ability of the process to yield reduced emissions fuels depends on the source for the feed and process heat. For the range of conditions considered, the emissions profile of methanol produced in this method varies from 0.475 to 1.645 moles carbon dioxide per mole methanol. The upper bound can be lowered to 0.750 by applying CCS and/ or using nonfossil heat sources for the reforming. The process provides an initial pathway to incorporate CO2 into fuels independent of electrolytic hydrogen or developments in other sectors of the economy.     

Potential restrictions for CO2 sequestration sites due to shale and tight gas production

Carbon capture and geological sequestration is the only available technology that both allows continued use of fossil fuels in the power sector and reduces significantly the associated CO(2) emissions. Geological sequestration requires a deep permeable geological formation into which captured CO(2)can be injected, and an overlying impermeable formation, called a caprock, that keeps the buoyant CO(2) within the injection formation. Shale formations typically have very low permeability and are considered to be good caprock formations. Production of natural gas from shale and other tight formations involves fracturing the shale with the explicit objective to greatly increase the permeability of the shale. As such, shale gas production is in direct conflict with the use of shale formations as a caprock barrier to CO(2) migration. We have examined the locations in the United States where deep saline aquifers, suitable for CO(2) sequestration, exist, as well as the locations of gas production from shale and other tight formations. While estimated sequestration capacity for CO(2) sequestration in deep saline aquifers is large, up to 80% of that capacity has areal overlap with potential shale-gas production regions and, therefore, could be adversely affected by shale and tight gas production. Analysis of stationary sources of CO(2) shows a similar effect: about two-thirds of the total emissions from these sources are located within 20 miles of a deep saline aquifer, but shale and tight gas production could affect up to 85% of these sources. These analyses indicate that colocation of deep saline aquifers with shale and tight gas production could significantly affect the sequestration capacity for CCS operations. This suggests that a more comprehensive management strategy for subsurface resource utilization should be developed.     

Development of a hybrid process and system model for the assessment of wellbore leakage at a geologic CO2 sequestration site

Sequestration of CO2 in geologic reservoirs is one of the promising technologies currently being explored to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Large-scale deployment of geologic sequestration will require seals with a cumulative area amounting to hundreds of square kilometers per year and will require a large number of sequestration sites. We are developing a system-level model, CO2-PENS, that will predict the overall performance of sequestration systems while taking into account various processes associated with different parts of a sequestration operation, from the power plant to sequestration reservoirs to the accessible environment. The adaptability of CO2-PENS promotes application to a wide variety of sites, and its level of complexity can be increased as detailed site information becomes available. The model CO2-PENS utilizes a science-based-prediction approach by integrating information from process-level laboratory experiments, field experiments/observations, and process-level numerical modeling. The use of coupled process models in the system model of CO2-PENS provides insights into the emergent behavior of aggregate processes that could not be obtained by using individual process models. We illustrate the utility of the concept by incorporating geologic and wellbore data into a synthetic, depleted oil reservoir. In this sequestration scenario, we assess the fate of CO2 via wellbore release and resulting impacts of CO2 to a shallow aquifer and release to the atmosphere.     

National-level infrastructure and economic effects of switchgrass cofiring with coal in existing power plants for carbon mitigation

We update a previously presented Linear Programming (LP) methodology for estimating state level costs for reducing CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants by cofiring switchgrass, a biomass energy crop, and coal. This paper presents national level results of applying the methodology to the entire portion of the United States in which switchgrass could be grown without irrigation. We present incremental switchgrass and coal cofiring carbon cost of mitigation curves along with a presentation of regionally specific cofiring economics and policy issues. The results show that cofiring 189 million dry short tons of switchgrass with coal in the existing U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet can mitigate approximately 256 million short tons of carbon-dioxide (CO2) per year, representing a 9% reduction of 2005 electricity sector CO2 emissions. Total marginal costs, including capital, labor, feedstock, and transportation, range from $20 to $86/ton CO2 mitigated,with average costs ranging from $20 to $45/ton. If some existing power plants upgrade to boilers designed for combusting switchgrass, an additional 54 million tons of switchgrass can be cofired. In this case, total marginal costs range from $26 to $100/ton CO2 mitigated, with average costs ranging from $20 to $60/ton. Costs for states east of the Mississippi River are largely unaffected by boiler replacement; Atlantic seaboard states represent the lowest cofiring cost of carbon mitigation. The central plains states west of the Mississippi River are most affected by the boiler replacement option and, in general, go from one of the lowest cofiring cost of carbon mitigation regions to the highest. We explain the variation in transportation expenses and highlight regional cost of mitigation variations as transportation overwhelms other cofiring costs.     

Energy and material balance of CO2 capture from ambient air

Current Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies focus on large, stationary sources that produce approximately 50% of global CO2 emissions. We propose an industrial technology that captures CO2 directly from ambient air to target the remaining emissions. First, a wet scrubbing technique absorbs CO2 into a sodium hydroxide solution. The resultant carbonate is transferred from sodium ions to calcium ions via causticization. The captured CO2 is released from the calcium carbonate through thermal calcination in a modified kiln. The energy consumption is calculated as 350 kJ/mol of CO2 captured. It is dominated by the thermal energy demand of the kiln and the mechanical power required for air movement. The low concentration of CO2 in air requires a throughput of 3 million cubic meters of air per ton of CO2 removed, which could result in significant water losses. Electricity consumption in the process results in CO2 emissions and the use of coal power would significantly reduce to net amount captured. The thermodynamic efficiency of this process is low but comparable to other "end of pipe" capture technologies. As another carbon mitigation technology, air capture could allow for the continued use of liquid hydrocarbon fuels in the transportation sector.     

Advanced exergoenvironmental analysis of a near-zero emission power plant with chemical looping combustion

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) from power plants can be used to mitigate CO(2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. However, CCS technologies are energy intensive, decreasing the operating efficiency of a plant and increasing its costs. Recently developed advanced exergy-based analyses can uncover the potential for improvement of complex energy conversion systems, as well as qualify and quantify plant component interactions. In this paper, an advanced exergoenvironmental analysis is used for the first time as means to evaluate an oxy-fuel power plant with CO(2) capture. The environmental impacts of each component are split into avoidable/unavoidable and endogenous/exogenous parts. In an effort to minimize the environmental impact of the plant operation, we focus on the avoidable part of the impact (which is also split into endogenous and exogenous parts) and we seek ways to decrease it. The results of the advanced exergoenvironmental analysis show that the majority of the environmental impact related to the exergy destruction of individual components is unavoidable and endogenous. Thus, the improvement potential is rather limited, and the interactions of the components are of lower importance. The environmental impact of construction of the components is found to be significantly lower than that associated with their operation; therefore, our suggestions for improvement focus on measures concerning the reduction of exergy destruction and pollutant formation.     

Ex situ aqueous mineral carbonation

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) located in Albany, OR (formerly the Albany Research Center) has studied ex situ mineral carbonation as a potential option for carbon dioxide sequestration. Studies focused on the reaction of Ca-, Fe-, and Mg-silicate minerals with gaseous CO2 to form geologically stable, naturally occurring solid carbonate minerals. The research included resource evaluation, kinetic studies, process development, and economic evaluation. An initial cost estimate of approximately $69/ton of CO2 sequestered was improved with process improvements to $54/ton. The scale of ex situ mineral carbonation operations, requiring 55 000 tons of mineral to carbonate, the daily CO2 emissions from a 1-GW, coal-fired power plant, may make such operations impractical.