Statistical properties of 49 years of rainfall rate events

Summary The paper presents a detailed investigation of magnitudes and properties pertaining to the large population of rainfall events recorded during 49 years at the Fabra Observatory in Barcelona. The study includes a statistical analysis of event durationT and rainfall quantityQ together with the statistical rainfall rate parameters: , ²(R) and maximum Rm within an event. The decorrelation time is also analysed. It is found thatQ, T, and can be well modelled by a lognormal distribution, but , ² and Rm are only so for a limited range of precipitation ratesR. The regression analysis between pairs of logarithms of the magnitudes investigated is generally good and a regression coefficient is often better than 0.9. Comparison with published work is also carried out. An attempt is made to discriminate between heavy and non-heavy rainfall rates, and the 50 mm/h threshold is used for the study. The twelve-monthly running average indicates that the rainfall amount has a small increasing trend over the fifty year period. However, this trend is reversed when considering heavy rains. Finally, the return period in years to exceeding a thresholdR within an event is also investigated and the distribution of the population of annual extremes is found to be Gumbel II.With 6 Figures     

On the mean monthly equivalent potential temperature and rainfall in West Africa

Summary Rainfall in West Africa is examined in relation to monthly mean equivalent potential temperature ( _e )at the earth's surface. The study revealed that monthly mean equivalent potential temperature ( _e ) and monthly rainfall (R) generally decreased northwards from the equator.A good relationship existed betweenR and _e in the northern zone of West Africa (i.e., north of 7.5° N). No definite relationship existed in the southern zone. In the northern zone, the departure of _e from its annual mean ( ) first became positive about a month before the onset of the rains. Positive departures from ) generally resulted in more than normal (or average) rainfall in this zone. In general, little or no rainfall occurred in West Africa whenever _e was less than 320 K.

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Zusammenfassung Der Niederschlag (MonatssummeR) in Westafrika wird in Zusammenhang mit der mittleren monatlichen Äquivalent-temperatur ( _e ) an der Erdoberfläche untersucht. Es zeigte sich, daß die Monatswerte beider Elemente im allgemeinen vom Äquator nach Norden abnehmen.ZwischenR und _e ergab sich für das nördliche Westafrika (nördlich von 7.5° N) eine gute, für die südliche Zone jedoch keine beweisbare Übereinstimmung. In der nördlichen Zone übertraf _e das Jahresmittel erstmals etwa einen Monat vor Beginn der Regenzeit. Positive Abweichungen vom mittleren _e hatten immer übernormalen Niederschlag in dieser Zone zur Folge. Dagegen gab es wenig oder keinen Niederschlag in Westafrika, wenn _e unter 320 K lag.

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With 7 Figures     

Numerical simulation of flow data over two-dimensional hills

We have studied a neutrally-stratified flow over two-dimensional hills using a two-dimensional, non-hydrostatic version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We have implemented three different turbulence closure models: the standardE- model, an Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (ARSM) and a new model. Model predictions for the mean and turbulence flows using different closure schemes are compared with the data of a wind tunnel experiment containing isolated two-dimensional hills of varying slope. From the comparison, it is concluded that all three models predict the mean flow velocities equally well while only the new closure model accurately predicts the turbulence data statistics.The research reported in this paper was conducted while the first author held a National Research Council (NRC) Associateship.     

Similarity theory of diffusion and the observed vertical spread in the diabatic surface layer

The extension of Lagrangian similarity theory of diffusion to stratified flow is examined, to improve its prediction of the vertical spread of a passive substance. In the basic equation, where is the average height of a cluster of particles,u _* is the friction velocity andL is Monin-Obukhov length. It is shown theoretically, under the assumption of an equivalence between the diffusivities of heat and matter, that the unspecified function is the reciprocal of a more familiar meteorological parameter _n , the dimensionless temperature gradient. The universal constantb is found to be approximately equal to von Karman's constant for various stability conditions. The predicted effect of stability on vertical spread shows excellent agreement with that of the published data from the O'Neill experiments.     

The influence of stratification on heat and momentum turbulent transfer in antarctica

Data from the Antarctic winter at Halley Base have been used in order to evaluate qualitatively and quantitatively how the stratification in the low atmosphere (evaluated with the gradient Richardson number, Ri) influences the eddy transfers of heat and momentum. Vertical profiles of wind and temperature up to 32 m, and turbulent fluxes ( , and ) measured from three ultrasonic thermo-anemometers installed at 5, 17 and 32 m are employed to calculate Ri, the friction velocity (u _*) and the eddy diffusivities for heat (K _h ) and momentum (K _m ). The results show a big dependence of stability onK _m ,K _h andu _*, with a sharp decrease of these turbulent parameters with increasing stability. The ratio of eddy diffusivities (K _h /K _m ) is also analyzed and presents a decreasing tendency as Ri increases, reaching values even less than 1, i.e., there were situations where the turbulent transfer of momentum was greater than that of heat. Possible mechanisms of turbulent mixing are discussed.     

A comparison of several diffuse solar radiation models for Greece

Summary This paper attempts to test the applicability of existing correlation models to the estimation of diffuse radiation with respect to measured values at a station. There are two types of model: The first type depends on the fraction of monthly average daily diffuse radiation to total solar radiation, , as a function of the clearness index, . The second type expresses the fraction or as a function of the sunshine fraction Therefore, it presents statistically based correlations between global radiation and its diffuse component on a horizontal surface and suggests two equations to determine the ratio of diffuse radiation to total radiation received on a horizontal surface. The results of these correlation equations are compared with other accepted equations.With 3 Figures     

Theorie der räumlichen und zeitlichen Mittelbildung einer beliebigen Feldfunktion und ihre Anwendung in der Meteorologie

Zusammenfassung Durch Untersuchung des Zusammenhanges zwischen dem Zeit- und dem Raummittelfeld einer beliebigen Feldfunktion wurde folgende Beziehung gefunden: Existiert zwischen dem Zeit- und Raummittel einer Feldfunktion ein Äquivalenzprinzip, so genügt diese Funktion einer homogenen Wellengleichung mit der Geschwindigkeit der Welle (im zweidimensionalen Fall). s und t sind hiebei die Raumbzw. Zeitinkremente der räumlichen bzw. zeitlichen Mittelung der Feldfunktion. Diese Feststellung gilt auch umgekehrt: falls eine Raum-Zeitfunktion einer Wellengleichung mit genügt, so gilt für das Raum- und Zeitmittel der Funktion mit s und t als die dazugehörigen Inkremente ein Äquivalenzprinzip. Ist die Geschwindigkeit der Welle , so besteht zwischen dem Raum- und Zeitmittel einer Feldfunktion eine allgemeinere lineare Beziehung, die genau bestimmbar ist. DaH. Reuter für das Geopotential einer Druckfläche ein Äquivalenzprinzip von Raum- und Zeitmittel statistisch nachweisen konnte, muß auf Grund der oben erwähnten Ergebnisse geschlossen werden, daß in der Atmosphäre Wellen- bzw. Schwingungsvorgänge (lineare Vorgänge) sehr häufig vorkommen. Es kann nachgewiesen werden, daß gewisse partikuläre Integrale der divergenzfreien Vorticitygleichung (z. B. Rossby-Lösung) gleichzeitig auch Lösungen der homogenen Wellengleichung sind. Für diese Lösungen werden die Bedingungen für ein Äquivalenzprinzip von Raum- und Zeitmittel ausführlich diskutiert.Weiters kann gezeigt werden, daß man mittels des Äquivalenzprinzipes die homogene Wellengleichung sehr einfach numerisch oder graphisch integrieren kann. Diese Tatsache wird zur Konstruktion von Vorhersagekarten im 500 mb-Niveau verwendet. Allerdings muß bei einer solchen Integration die Geschwindigkeit des Feldes bekannt sein. Diese Geschwindigkeit wird daher entweder durch Extrapolation oder mittels derRossby-Formel unter Zuhilfenahme der zonalen Windkomponenten ermittelt. Naturgemaß können aber durch eine solche Methode der Vorhersage barokline Entwicklungen nicht erfaßt werden. Ferner werden noch Vorschläge zur Verbesserung der Methode zur Vorhersage von Mittelkarten nachH. Reuter ausgearbeitet.

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Summary An investigation of the correlation between time means and space means of an arbitrary field function renders the following relationship: If the time and space means of a field function follow a principle of equivalence, this field function satisfies a homogeneous wave equation, with a wave velocity (in the two-dimensional case). s and t are the grid distance and time interval used in calculating the space and time averages of the field. The above statement may also be reversed: if a function of space and time satisfies a wave equation with , the space and time means (increments s and t) follow a principle of equivalence. If the wave velocity , the space and time means of the field function can be represented accurately by a linear general equation.The existence of a principle of equivalence between space and time means of the geopotential field of a constant pressure level has been proved statistically byH. Reuter. In view of the present results, this equivalence suggests that wave processes must be rather common in the atmosphere. It can be shown that certain particular integrals of the non-divergence vorticity equation (e. g. theRossby-solution) are also solutions of the homogeneous wave equation. For these solutions, the conditions of a principle of equivalence of space and time means are discussed in detail.Further, it can be shown that, by means of the principle of equivalence, the homogeneous wave equation may easily be integrated, either numerically or graphically. These findings were utilized in constructing prognostic charts of the 500 mb level. Integration of the wave equation is only possible if the velocity of the field is known. It can be found either by extrapolation in time, or by means of theRossby formula and the zonal wind component. Of course, the prognostic method described here does not cover baroclinic developments. Finally, several suggestions are made to improveH. Reuter's method of extended forecasting.

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Résumé En recherchant la connexion entre les champs des moyennes temporelles et spatiales d'une fonction de champ quelconque on atrouvé le rapport suivant: Si la moyenne temporelle et la moyenne spatiale d'une fonction de champ obéissent à un principe d'équivalence, cette fonction satisfait une équation des ondes, la vitesse de l'onde (dans le cas à deux dimensions) étant . Ici, s indique la dimension du carrelage et t la différence du temps au calcul des moyennes spatiales et temporelles dans le champ. Cette règle est aussi reversible: si une fonction spatiale et temporelle satisfait une équation des ondes avec . un principe d'équivalence est applicable pour les moyennes spatiales et temporelles en employant les différences s et t. Si la vitesse de l'onde , une relation linéaire et plus générale existe entre la moyenne spatiale et temporelle, laquelle peut être déterminée précisément.CommeH. Reuter pouvait prouver par la statistique un principe d'équivalence entre des moyennes spatiales et temporelles dans un champ du géopotentiel d'un niveau isobarique, il faut conclure en raison des résultats mentionnés ci-dessus que dans l'atmosphre les événements ondulatoires ou de l'oscillation (évéments linéaires) sont très fréquents. On peut prouver que certaines intégrales particulières de l'équation de vorticity sans divergence (par exemple: solution deRossby) sont simultanément aussi des solutions de l'équation homogéne des ondes. Pour ces solutions-là les conditions pour un principe de l'équivalence entre les moyennes spatiales et temporelles sont discutées en détail.En outre on peut montrer qu'on peut intégrer l'équation homogène des ondes bien facilement numériquement ou d'une manière graphique au moyen du principe de l'équivalence. Ce fait est appliqué pour la construction des cartes de prévision au niveau de 500 mb. Cependant il faut connaître la vitesse du champ pour une telle intégration. On trouve cette vitesse par extrapolation ou au moyen de la formule deRossby en s'appuyant sur les composantes zonales du vent. Mais il faut dire que les évolutions baroclines ne peuvent pas être saisies par une telle méthode de prévision. De plus l'auteur propose des amendements de la méthode de prévision des cartes moyennes selonReuter.

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Mit 16 Textabbildungen     

Zur Struktur der Wolken

Zusammenfassung Auf dem Feldberg (1493 m NN) im südlichen Schwarzwald wurden von Januar 1953 bis Mai 1953 und von September 1954 bis Februar 1955 Messungen von Tropfengröße, Wassergehalt und Sichtweite in Wolken durchgeführt. Die Tropfen der einzelnen Spektren haben einen mittleren Durchmesser zwischen 6 und 30 ; die Durchmesser der größten gemessenen Tropfen liegen zwischen 50 und 60 . Der Wassergehalt hat Werte zwischen 0,003 und 1,54 g/m³, wobei über 90% aller Messungen einen Wassergehalt unter 0,50 g/m³ zeigen. Ein einfacher Zusammenhang zwischen Sichtweite, Tropfengröße und Wassergehalt nach derTrabertschen Formel besteht nicht.Eine enge beziehung wurde zwischen der Form der Spektren und dem Niederschlag gefunden. In Zeiten ohne Niederschlag und bei geringfügigem Niederschlag überwiegen schmale ( < 12,0 ), in Zeiten mit länger andauerndem Niederschlag breite Spektren ( > 12,0 ). Eine Ausnahme machen alle Messungen in Hochnebel, die breite Spektren mit zwischen 13 und 17 zeigen, ohne daß Niederschlag fällt.Das gleichzeitige Vorhandensein der drei Phasen Wasserdampf, flüssiges Wasser und Eisteilchen über längere Zeiträume hinweg wurde festgestellt; somit kann die Eiskristall-Niederschlagstheorie vonBergeron und vonFindeisen für den Mechanismus der Niederschlagsbildung nicht im allgemein angenommenen Ausmaß zutreffen. Es erscheint notwendig, die Frage der Wolkenphysik nicht nur thermodynamisch, sondern auch in vermehrtem maß kolloidphysikalisch im Sinne vonSchmauss zu untersuchen.

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Summary Measurements of drop size, water content and visibility in clouds have been carried out from January till May 1953 and from September 1954 to February 1955 on the Feldberg (1493 m. a. s. 1.) in the southern Black Forest. The drops of the different spectra have a mean diameter between 6 and 30 ; the diameters of the largest measured drops lie between 50 and 60 . The water content shows values between 0.003 and 1.54g/m³ whereby more than 90 per cent of all measurements lead to a water content below 0.50 g/m³. A simple relation between visibility, drop size and water content according to the formula ofTrabert does not exist.A closed connection between the form of the spectra and the precipitations has been found. In periods without or with only slight precipitation narrow spectra ( < 12.0 ) prevail, in periods with persistent precipitation broad ones ( > 12.0 ). All measurements in elevanted fog make an exception, showing broad spectra with between 13 and 17 without any precipitation.The simultaneous existance of the 3 phases: water vapour, liquid water and ice particles over alonger periods has been stated; the ice crystall precipitation theory ofBergeron andFindeisen for the mechanism of precipitation can therefore not hold in the generally accepted extent. The examination of the problems of cloud physics appears to be necessary, not only in thermodynamical respect, but also in the sense of coloid physics according toSchmauss.

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Résumé On a effectué de janvier à mai 1953 et de septembre 1954 à février 1955 au Feldberg (1493 m.) en Forêt-Noire des mesures de grosseur de gouttelettes, de teneur en eau et de visibilité dans les nuages. Les gouttelettes ont und diamètre moyen compris entre 6 et 30 ; les plus grosses mesurent 50 à 60 . La teneur en eau varie de 0,003 à 1,54 g/m³; dans plus de 90% des mesures, elle reste inférieure a 0,5g/m³. Il n'y a pas de relation simple, qui suivrait la formula deTrabert, entre visibilité, grosseur des gouttelettes et teneur en eau.Il existe par contre une relation étroite entre la forme du spectre de fréquence et les précipitations. Lorsque celles-ci sont nulles ou très faibles ce sont les spectres étroit ( < 12,0 ) qui dominent; par précipitations durables, ce sont les spectres larges ( > ). Dans le stratus, sans pluie, les spectres larges ( entre 13 et 17 ) prédominent.On a constaté l'existence simultanée des trois phases solide, liquide et gazeuse pendant d'assez longs intervalles de temps, de sorte que le théorie deBergeron et deFindeisen concernant la genène des précipitations n'a pas la généralité qu'on lui prête. Il apparaît nécessaire d'aborder les problèmes de la physique des nuages non seulement du point de vue thermodynamique, mais aussi de celui de l'état colloïdal au sens deSchmauss.

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Mit 9 Textabbildungen.

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Hinsichtlich der Wiedergabe von Tabellen und Tropfenspektren stark verkürzte Fassung einer bei der Technischen Hochschule in Karlsruhe eingereichten und genehmigten Dissertation; die hier weggelssene Dokumentation kann zur Einsichtnahme bezogen werden bei den Bibliotheken der Technischen Hochschule Karlsruhe und des Deutschen Wetterdienstes, Offenbach (Main).     

Transformation of Irradiance Measurements into Spectral Actinic Flux for Photolysis Rates Determination

The actinic flux is the only radiometric quantity suitable for photolysisfrequency determination. It is derived from solar spectral irradiancemeasurements performed by a portable spectroradiometer in the 300–850nm wavelength range. The spectral irradiance is first divided into a directpart and a diffuse part, according to the atmospheric conditions, and thenconverted into the corresponding actinic flux quantity. As an intermediary,the ratio of diffuse actinic flux to diffuseirradiance is calculated by the spherical harmonics radiative code withrespect to wavelength, solar zenith angle, surface albedo, and aerosolproperties.The results of extensive sensitivity studies of asa function of the main atmospheric parameters are discussed and lead to theconclusion that aerosol optical depth is the major critical value for aprecise determination. The global algorithm totransform spectral irradiance into actinic flux is finally applied forphotodissociation rate calculations by convolution of the obtained actinicflux spectra with the absorption cross-sections and quantum yields of themolecule studied. Photolysis rates of different atmospheric photooxidants havebeen measured with this spectroradiometric method during the summers of 1993and 1994 in Brittany and in Portugal. The ozone and nitrogen dioxidephotodissociation rates obtained present a good agreement with thej(O₃) and j(NO₂) actinometerresults, for the same experimental conditions in Brittany.     

A multifractal analysis of lidar measured water vapour

Accurate and fast-response measurements of space-time observations of specific humidity were made above a drying land surface at the University of California at Davis, using the Los Alamos water Raman-lidar. In an attempt to quantify the space-time intermittency features of turbulent flows in the lower atmosphere, a multifractal analysis of these water vapour measurements was performed. The structure of the specific humidity, (x, t), was analyzed quantifying a scalar gradient measure both in time and space, for all possible one-dimensional cuts, i.e. and . The results confirm the multifractal nature of this scalar gradient measure (a type of scalar dissipation rate) and show that humidity measurements at fixed times (x) are more intermittent (e.g. have less entropy dimension) than those at fixed locations in space (t). Similar multifractal behaviour of the spatial data, with and without a transformation from the observed wind velocities, supports the validity of Taylor's hypothesis for the studied fields.     

Effects of water vapour on the structure parameter of the refractive index for near-infrared radiation

The refractive index of air (n) mainly depends on temperature andwater vapour content. For near-infrared radiation, temperature isthe main determining factor. To determinethe structure parameter of temperature ( ) fromthe structure parameter of the refractive index( ), the influence ofwater vapour content on n needs to be taken into account as acorrection. Three levels of approximation are presented. The firstinvolves the standard deviations of T and q (_T and_q) as well as the correlation coefficient betweenT and q (R_Tq). The second approximation involvesR_Tq and the Bowen ratio (), and the last uses only the Bowen ratio.The latter is the classical Bowen ratio correction.Evaluation of the validity of the assumptions used in the derivationreveals that a large error may be introduced (for situations withR_Tq < 0.8) by replacing _T/_qwith the Bowen ratio.Consequently, estimating from using the Bowen ratiocan contain errors of 5–40% for || < 1. Adding R_Tqas extra information reduces the errors only marginally. For || > 1,the correction is small, and all three approximations give errors of lessthan 1% in . When is used to compute the sensible heat flux,the influence of the quality of the correction forwater vapour fluctuations on the measured energy balance is small: forsmall ||, the correction is large, but the absolute value ofthe heat flux is small, whereas for large ||, the correctionis insignificant.     

Eddy transport of sensible heat and the life history of synoptic systems: A statistical analysis for the Southern Hemisphere winter

Summary The efficiency of successive satellite-observed stages in the development of extratropical frontal cyclones for transporting eddy sensible heat at 850 mb on the Southern Hemisphere, is determined for the five winters (June through September) of 1973–1977. An inventory of cloud vortex data is allied with independent estimates of the zonally-averaged transient eddy heat flux, , using a statistical technique known aspath analysis. Path analysis is an improvement over single equation linear regression models since it controls for the temporally continuous nature of cyclone evolution. The results indicate that different cloud vortex types are associated with characteristic regimes of . The quite strong poleward flux of heat effected in the cyclogenetic stages weakens substantially by the onset of dissipation. These results are in general agreement with those for the summer and transition seasons derived using linear regression by Tucker (1979). However, a significant netequatorward flux of is found to be connected with the short-lived mature (spiral) cloud vortex type. In association with a southward displacement of the maximum latitude of cyclogenesis and a reduced crosslatitude motion of systems in winter, this apparently results in the strong lower-level heat flux convergence characteristic of the circumpolar trough at that time. A systematic error, by year, in the statistical model specification of heat transport related to cloud vortex type is found to be associated with phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO). Incorporating this effect into the model greatly improves the goodness-of-fit of the heat flux estimates and indicates that the efficiency of the mcridional eddy heat transport by cyclones is greatest (least) when the SOI is low (high). The implications of these results in the context of other, related studies are discussed.With 7 Figures     

Climatic changes or cycles?

Summary The sums of negative daily means of temperature (centigrade degrees) for the winter season appear to be suitable criteria of the severity or the mildness of winters.K. Knoch published such temperature totals for the homogenized 180 year's temperature series for Berlin, Germany. By means of the standard deviation ()objective numerical limits are established between normal and abnormal winters. Wedefine: winters with a temperature total smaller than the arithmetic mean of the entire series, diminished by aremild; those with a temperature total aresevere. With these definitions a series of severe winters and one of mild winters are determined and investigated.The main result showed that frequencies, average numerical severity (or mildness), average time interval between abnormal winters, and therefore also contingent cyclic intervals depend, to a great extent, upon the magnitude of the usually arbitrarily fixed limits (between normal and abnormal). Theobjective limits, here used, do not offer a reason to surmise a cyclical recurrence of extreme winters — mild or severe — in the case of the Berlin temperature series.Avoiding any deformation of the actual series — as can be caused by intense smoothing procedures — a simple method revealed clearly the existence of asecular climatic change. During the first portion of the 180 years' period, severe winters were prevalent, while during the second portion mild ones prevailed.

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Zusammenfassung Summen negativer Mittel der Tagestemperatur (°C) für die Wintersaison sind wohl geeignet zur Charakteristik der Strenge des Winters.K. Knoch publizierte solche Temperatursummen für die homogen gemachte 180 jährige Berliner Reihe. Mit Hilfe des mittleren, Fehlers werdenobjektive numerische Grenzen zwischen normalen und abnormalen Wintern festgelegt. Winter mit einer negativen Temperatursumme kleiner als das arithmetische Mittel, vermindert um den mittleren Fehler , werden alsmild, solche, bei denen die Temperatursumme den Betrag überstieg, alsstreng definiert. Die zwei so festgelegten Reihen,strenge Winter undmilde Winter wurden in verschiedener Weise untersucht. Als Hauptresultat ergab sich, daß Häufigkeiten, mittlere Strenge, (Milde) und mittleres Zeitintervall zwischen abnormalen Wintern in hohem Grade von der Höhe der üblicherweisewillkürlich angenommenen fixen Grenzen (zwischen normal und abnormal) abhängen. Die hier angewendetenobjektiven Grenzen bieten keinen Grund, bei der Berliner Reihe eine zyklische Wiederkehr einer der beiden extremen Wintertypen zu vermuten.Unter Vermeidung jedweder Verzerrung der Beobachtungsreihe, wie sie eventuell infolge intensiver Glättungsverfahren auftreten kann, führte eine einfache Methode zu dem klaren Bild einer säkularen Klimaänderung. Im ersten Teil der Beobachtungsperiode überwiegen unzweifelhaft die strengen Winter, im zweiten Teil die milden.

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Résumé La rigueur de l'hiver peut se caractériser par la somme des températures moyennes journalières négatives (°C).K. Knoch a publié de telles sommes pour la séries rendue homogène de 180 ans à Berlin. A l'aide de l'erreur moyenne il est possible de fixer des limites numériques objectives entre hivers normaux et anormaux. Par définition un hiver est doux si la somme des températures est inférieure à la moyenne arithmétique diminuée de l'erreur moyenne ; il est rigoureux si cette somme dépasse la valuer . L'auteur étudie à divers points de vue les séries d'hivers doux et rigoureux ainsi définis et aboutit au résultat principal selon lequel les fréquences, la rigueur moyenne et l'intervalle, moyen de temps séparant des hivers anormaux dépendent largement des limites arbitraires adoptées en général entre le normal et l'anormal. Les limitesobjectives adoptées ici ne permettent pas de supposer que la série berlinoise présente un retour périodique de l'un ou l'autre des types extrêmes d'hivers.Es évitant de fausser d'une façon quelconque les séries d'observations comme cela peut se produire par un procédé d'adoucissement abusif, une méthode simple de l'auteur met en évidence une variation climatique séculaire. Dáns la première partie de la période d'observations les hivers rigoureux l'emportent indiscutablement; dans la seconde partie, ce sont les hivers doux.

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Numerical simulation of particle trajectories in inhomogeneous turbulence,II: Systems with variable turbulent velocity scale

It is shown that for the purpose of trajectory simulation, the vertical velocityw _L (t) of a fluid element, which is moving in a system (such as a forest canopy, or the unstably stratified atmospheric surface layer) whose turbulent velocity scale _w is height-dependent, must be chosen from a frequency-distribution which is asymmetric aboutw _L = 0. If the gradient _w /z varies only slowly with height, correct trajectories may be obtained by adding a bias (where _L is the length scale) to a fluctuating velocity chosen from a symmetric distribution with variance _w ²(z).     

A numerical modeling study of the marine boundary layer over the Gulf Stream during cold air advection

A two-dimensional mesoscale model has been developed to simulate the air flow over the Gulf Stream area where typically large gradients in surface temperature exist in the winter. Numerical simulations show that the magnitude and the maximum height of the mesoscale circulation that develops downwind of the Gulf Stream depends on both the initial geostrophic wind and the large-scale moisture. As expected, a highly convective Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) develops over this area and it was found that the Gulf Stream plays an important role in generating the strong upward heat fluxes causing a farther seaward penetration as cold air advection takes place. Numerical results agree well with the observed surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the mesoscale variation of vertical velocities obtained using Doppler Radars for a typical cold air outbreak. Precipitation pattern predicted by the numerical model is also in agreement with the observations during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE).List of Symbols u east-west velocity [m s^–1] - v north-south velocity [m s^–1] - vertical velocity in coordinate [m s^–1] - w vertical velocity inz coordinate [m s^–1] - gq potential temperature [K] - q moisture [kg kg^–1] - scaled pressure [J kg^–1 K^–1] - U _g the east-south component of geostrophic wind [m s^–1] - V _g the north-south component of geostrophic wind [m s^–1] - vertical coordinate following terrain - x east-west spatial coordinate [m] - y north-south spatial coordinate [m] - z vertical spatial coordinate [m] - t time coordinate [s] - g gravity [m² s^–1] - E terrain height [m] - H total height considered in the model [m] - q _s saturated moisture [kg kg^–1] - p pressure [mb] - p ₀₀ reference pressure [mb] - P precipitation [kg m^–2] - vertical lapse rate for potential temperature [K km^–1] - L latent heat of condensation [J kg^–1] - C _p specific heat at constant pressure [J kg^–1 K^–1] - R gas constant for dry air [J kg^–1 K^–1] - R _v gas constant for water vapor [J kg^–1 K^–1] - f Coriolis parameter (2 sin ) [s^–1] - angular velocity of the earth [s^–1] - latitude [^o] - K _H horizontal eddy exchange coefficient [m² s^–1] - t integration time interval [s] - x grid interval distance inx coordinate [m] - y grid interval distance iny coordinate [m] - adjustable coefficient inK _H - subgrid momentum flux [m² s^–2] - subgrid potential temperature flux [m K s^–1] - subgrid moisture flux [m kg kg^–1 s^–1] - u _* friction velocity [m s^–1] - _* subgrid flux temperature [K] - q _* subgrid flux moisture [kg kg^–1] - w _* subgrid convective velocity [m s^–1] - z ₀ surface roughness [m] - L Monin stability length [m] - _s surface potential temperature [K] - k von Karman's constant (0.4) - v air kinematic viscosity coefficient [m² s^–1] - K _M subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for momentum [m² s^–1] - K subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for heat [m² s^–1] - K _q subgrid vertical eddy exchange coefficient for moisture [m² s^–1] - z _i the height of PBL [m] - h _s the height of surface layer [m]     

Three-dimensional modeling of synthetic cold fronts interacting with northern Alpine foehn

Summary The effect of the Alpine orography on prototype cold fronts approaching from the west is investigated by three-dimensional numerical model simulations. The numerical experiments cover a range of parameter constellations which govern the prefrontal environment of the front. Especially, the appearance and intensity of prefrontal northern Alpine foehn varies from case to case.The behaviour of a cold front north of the Alps depends much on the prefrontal condition it encounters. It is found that prefrontal foehn can either accelerate or retard the approaching front.An important feature is the pressure depression along the northern Alpine rim that results from the southerly foehn flow. In cases where this depression compensates the eastward directed pressure gradient associated with the largescale flow, the front tends to accelerate and the foehn breaks down as soon as the front passes. In contrast, the foehn prevents the front from a rapid eastward propagation if it is connected with a strong southerly wind component.No-foehn experiments are performed for comparison, where either the mountains are removed, or the static stability is set to neutral. Also shown are effects of different crossfrontal temperature contrasts.List of Symbols c _F propagation speed of a front - x, y horizontal grid spacing (cartesian system) - , horizontal grid spacing (geographic system) - t time step - z vertical grid spacing (cartesian system) - cross-frontal potential temperature difference - _i potential temperature step at an inversion - E turbulent kinetic energy - f Coriolis parameter - FGP frontogenesis parameter (see section 2.2) - g gravity acceleration (g=9.81 m s^–2) - vertical gradient of potential temperature - h terrain elevation (above MSL) - h _i height of an inversion (h _i =1000 m MSL) - H height of model lid (H=9000 m MSL) - K _M exchange coefficient of momentum - K _H exchange coefficient of heat and moisture - longitude - N Brunt-Väisäla-frequency - p pressure - Exner function (=T/) - latitude - q _v specific humidity - R _d gas constant of dry air (R _d =287.06 J kg^–1 K^–1) - density of dry air - t time - T temperature - potential temperature - TFP thermal front parameter (see section 2.2) - u, v, w cartesian wind components - u _g ,v _g geostrophic wind components - horizontal wind vector - x, y, z cartesian coordinates Abbreviations GND (above) ground level - MSL (above) mean sea level - UTC universal time coordinated With 20 Figures     

Disagreements between gradient-diffusion and Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models,even for sources near the ground

It is well known that if turbulent mass convection is modelled as diffusion, errors result unless trajectories from the source (ath) to the point of observation (z _p ) comprise many statistically-independent segments (Taylor, 1921). We show that this is not guaranteed merely by the Lagrangian timescale () at the source being small (e.g., source at ground), but that a better criterion istmax[(h), (z _p )], wheret is a typical travel time toz _p .     

A Field Study of the Mean Pressure About a Windbreak

To provide additional field data for assessingwindbreak flow models, mean ground-level pressurehas been measured upstream and downstream from along porous fence (height H = 1.25 m, resistancecoefficient k _r = 2.4). Measurements were madeduring periods of near-neutral stability and near-normallyincident flow, with the fence standing on bare soil(roughness length, z ₀ 0.8 cm;H/z ₀ 160), or within a plant canopy. The mean pressure field,measured far from the ends of the fence, was foundto be quite insensitive to mean wind direction( , zero for perpendicular flow), for| | less than about 25°.In the absence of a canopy, during each measurementperiod the minimum pressure occurred at the closestsampling location to leeward of the windbreak, thepressure-gradient in most cases beingmaximally-adverse in the immediate lee, and decayingwith increasing downwind distance (x). On one day ofmeasurements, however, the pressure gradient over2 x/H 6 (H = windbreak height) resembled theleeward plateau identified by Wang and Taklein their numerical studies. Perhaps thisoccasional feature was only due to instrumenterror. Nevertheless a plateau of sorts wasindicated in similar measurements by Judd andPrendergast (with H = 1.92 m, z ₀ 1.2 cm;H/z ₀ 160, k _r 3). Therefore,existence of a leeward pressure plateau behind athin fence cannot be definitely ruled out.When the windbreak was placed in a canopy, minimumsurface pressure was displaced downwind. Thisagrees with the wind-tunnel study of Judd, Raupach and Finnigan,and is consistent with a simple simulation reported here.     

The use of σ T as a temperature scale in the atmospheric surface layer

The standard deviation of temperature _T is proposed as a temperature scale and as a velocity scale to describe the behaviour of turbulent flows in the Atmospheric Surface Layer (ASL), instead of _* andu _* of the Monin—Obukhov similarity theory, and ofT _f andU _f used for free convection stability conditions. On the basis of experimental evidence reported in the literature, it is shown that _T T _f andv _* U _f in the free convection region, and _{T *} andv _* U _* in nearneutral and stable conditions. This implies that the proposed scales can be applied for all stabilities. Furthermore, a new length scale is proposed and its relation with Obukhov length is given. Also, a simple semi-empirical expression is presented with which _T andv _* can be evaluated in a rather simple way. Some examples of practical applications are given, e.g., a stability classification for unstable conditions.     

An empirical relationship between temperature,vapour pressure deficit and wind speed and evaporation during a winter chinook

Summary Evaporation rates determined by energy balance and bulk transfer equations and confirmed with soil moisture sampling was regressed against average daytime temperature, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed over several chinook events between 1986 and 1988. The equationE = 0.45 exp (0.35 + 0.025 — 0.133 [e ^* —e]) yielded reasonable estimates of evaporation with surface soil moisture between saturation and near wilting point.E is evaporation in mmd ^–1,T, u ande ^* ande are temperature (°C), wind speed (ms^–1), saturation vapour pressure and vapour pressure (mb) respectively. The overbar denotes daytime average.With 8 Figures