The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium

RELU-TRAN2, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chicago MSA is used to understand how gasoline use, car-VMT, on-the-road fuel intensity, trips and location patterns, housing, labor and product markets respond to a gas price increase. We find a long-run elasticity of gasoline demand (with congestion endogenous) of ?0.081, keeping constant car prices and the TFI (technological fuel intensity) of car types but allowing consumers to choose from car types. 43% of this long run elasticity is from switching to transit; 15% from trip, car-type and location choice; 38% from price, wage and rent equilibration, and 4% from building stock changes. 79% of the long run elasticity is from changes in car-VMT (the extensive margin) and 21% from savings in gasoline per mile (the intensive margin); with 83% of this intensive margin from changes in congestion and 17% from the substitution in favor of lower TFI. An exogenous trend-line improvement of the TFI of the car-types available for choice raises the long-run response to a percent increase in the gas price from ?0.081 to ?0.251. Thus, only 1/3 of the long-run response to the gas price stems from consumer choices and 2/3 from progress in fuel intensity. From 2000 to 2007, real gas prices rose 53.7%, the average car fuel intensity improved 2.7% and car prices fell 20%. The model predicts that from these changes alone, keeping constant population, income, etc. aggregate gasoline use in this period would have fallen by 5.2%.     

Application of traffic microsimulation for evaluating safety performance of urban signalized intersections

The primary objective of this paper is to provide a statistical relationship between traffic conflicts estimated from microsimulation and observed crashes in order to evaluate safety performance, in particular the effect of countermeasures. A secondary objective is to assess the effect of conflict risk tolerance and number of simulation runs on the estimates of countermeasure effects so obtained. Conflicts were simulated for a sample of signalized intersections from Toronto, Canada, using VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation and several crash–conflict relationships were obtained. A separate sample of treated intersections from Toronto was used to compare countermeasure effects from the integrated crash–conflict expression to a conventional, but rigorous crash-based Empirical Bayes before-and-after analysis that was already done, with the results published, for the same sites and treatment. The countermeasure considered for this investigation involved changing the left turn signal operation for the treated intersection sample from permissive to protected-permissive. The results support the view that countermeasure effects can be estimated reliably from conflicts derived from microsimulation, and more so when a suitable number of simulation runs and conflict tolerance thresholds are used in the crash–conflict relationship.     

An economic assessment of the impacts of the MOSE barriers on Venice port activities

To protect Venice from flooding, a number of protective measures have been adopted, including a system of mobile barriers known as MOSE. These separate the lagoon from the surges in the Adriatic Sea but interfere with shipping and on port activities. We estimate direct costs on ship traffic resulting from the use of MOSE, i.e., the additional costs of longer waiting time when passing through the Venice Lagoon. Our estimate uses inputs from a hydrodynamic model applied to the ship traffic between 2000 and 2002 and indicate that these costs range from €347,943 to €1.3 million a year, depending on the hypotheses adopted.     

The accuracy in estimating truck class rates for logistical planning

Truck class rates are usually needed in strategic logistical planning, especially for facility location. Using point-to-point transport rates is exact, but for practical reasons it is often necessary to estimate them from distance. Two sources of rate estimating error are examined: (a) the error resulting from the linear approximation of rates from distances; and, (b) the error associated with estimating distances from shipment origin-destination coordinate points. Suggestions are made as to how the rate estimating error may be minimized.     

Energy factors for flexible fuel engines and vehicles operating with gasoline-ethanol blends

This work investigates the energy factors for fuel conversion from the analysis of brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) maps of a sample of 15 engines, representative of 75% of current models available in the Brazilian market. The method also employs the engine driving patterns of power output versus crankshaft speed obtained from bench dynamometer tests. The energy factors obtained from the engine analysis was validated against experiments carried out with two production vehicles in laboratory tests following the 1975 US Federal Test Procedure (FTP-75) procedure and road tests following 16 different urban and highway routes. The fuels used in the tests were hydrous ethanol (E100, 6 v/v % water) and a blend of 22 v/v % anhydrous ethanol and 78 v/v % gasoline (E22). The energy factors found from the 3D engine BSFC map analysis were higher than those obtained from the Willans line, currently adopted as a standard, by 52% for E22 and 57% for E100. The results from the 3D engine BFSC maps and the first vehicle following the FTP-75 cycle and 15 road routes were similar, also close to the results from the second vehicle, qualifying them to be representative of modern flexible fuel spark ignition engines and vehicles.     

The influence of deposit control additives on exhaust CO and HC emissions from gasoline engines (case study: Tehran)

Air pollution is the most serious environmental problem in Tehran with exhaust emissions from spark-ignition engines accounting for a major part of problem. The formation and accumulation of deposits on the internal surfaces of engines could adversely affect the exhaust emission from vehicles. It is the perception that some of fuel additives can remove these deposits due to their detergency. The Iranian Department of Environment decarbonized more that 250,000 SI engine vehicles in Tehran with the goal of reducing exhaust CO and HC emissions from gasoline engine vehicles by engine deposit removal. Here, the influence of engine deposit removal by decarbonization on the exhaust CO and HC emissions from more than 500 gasoline engine vehicles is examined. It is found that the decarbonization process could reduce the exhaust CO and HC emissions, significantly. Emissions from Peykan and Pride vehicles decreased considerably after decarbonization.     

我国水路运输碳排放现状及减碳路径分析

本文在阐述我国水路运输碳排放现状的基础上,分析了水路运输减少碳排放过程中存在的主要问题,提出了水路运输减碳主要路径和政策建议,为相关部门开展碳减排工作提供参考。     

An empirical study of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment procedures

Abstract

Under Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), real-time operations of traffic management measures depend on long-term planning results, such as the origin–destination (OD) trip distribution; however, results from current planning procedures are unable to provide fundamental data for dynamic analysis. In order to capture dynamic traffic characteristics, transportation planning models should play an important role to integrate basic data with real-time traffic management and control. In this paper, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to establish the linkage between daily OD trips and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) procedures; thus results from transportation planning projects, in terms of daily OD trips, can be extended to estimate time-dependent OD trips. Field data from Taiwan are collected and applied in the calibration and validation processes. Dynamic Network Assignment-Simulation Model for Advanced Road Telematics (DYNASMART-P), a simulation-based DTA model, is applied to generate time-dependent flows. The results from the validation process show high agreement between actual flows from vehicle detectors (VDs) and simulated flows from DYNAMSART-P.     

The suitability of hedonic models for cost-benefit analysis: Evidence from commuting flows

We compare two estimates of benefits arising from the construction of new bridges in south-west Norway. One estimate comes from a hedonic property value model. Rather than follow an approach which is strictly theoretically correct, we adopt Rosen’s simple first-stage approach. To investigate and validate whether this simplified approach gives a reasonable estimate, we compare it to an estimate derived from a travel demand model. We find that a variant of an ex post hedonic house price model gives very similar estimates to the estimates from the travel demand model. This supports a hypothesis that the simplistic hedonic approach is reasonable.     

Unbalanced development of inter-provincial high-grade highway in China: Decomposing the Gini coefficient

This study discusses the unbalanced development of Chinese inter-provincial high-grade highway from 1997 to 2013. It does so from the viewpoint of the inter-provincial Gini coefficient based on per capita mileage of high-grade highway, which is decomposed according to such dimensions as the increment of the Gini coefficient, the Gini coefficient of different types of high-grade highway, and the Gini coefficient between and within inland and coastal areas. The Gini coefficient of China’s per capita mileage of inter-provincial high-grade highway shows a declining trend year by year. According to the results from the decomposition of the contribution rate of different types of high-grade highway, the unbalanced development of inter-provincial high-grade highway is caused mainly by that of first- and second-grade highway. According to the results from the decomposition related to the increment of the Gini coefficient of China’s per capita mileage of inter-provincial high-grade highway, the decrease of the Gini coefficient from 1997 to 2013 was mainly the result of balanced distribution of high-grade highway among regions in China. According to the results from the decomposition of the Gini coefficient between and within inland and coastal areas, the unbalanced development of inter-provincial high-grade highway in China from 1997 to 2013 was caused mainly by the unbalanced development of inter-provincial high-grade highway in inland areas. Therefore, the authors argue that the government should pay more attention to protecting the environment and providing a suitable scale of highway network, which could promote long-term sustainable development.     

Cultural heritage connectivity. A tool for EIA in transportation infrastructure planning

The paper is concerned incorporating landscapes’ ecological and cultural values in infrastructure planning. We focus on cultural heritage connectivity in the context of environmental impact statements in transportation infrastructure planning. Using a case study from south-central Sweden cultural heritage indicators from maps were defined, and a GIS-based automated search tool is developed for analysing cultural heritage connectivity from an antiquarian perspective. Analyses of cultural heritage connectivity can inform about the historical and/or present function of the landscape and its social and economic conditions. While this type of connectivity can be searched out using information from maps, a difficulty lies in communicating the knowledge in an interesting way to non-experts.     

城市公共交通发展的动力机制研究

城市公共交通发展动力涵盖政府的主导作用、公交运营企业的主动力、公众的支持力以及营销传播的助动力等"四方力量",四方力量的协同推动城市公共交通系统快速发展。首先对城市公共交通发展的动力机制进行分析,研究快速发展面临的困境以及进行公共交通系统动力协调的必要性;然后提出强化政府主导作用的"4P"发展策略、激发公交运营企业主动力的品牌服务策略、拓展公众支持力的乘客关系管理策略、发挥营销传播助动力的促销策略等公共交通协同发展策略;由此增强公共交通竞争力,提高公交出行方式分担率,推动城市可持续发展。     

广西高管文化建设与发展面临的问题及对策

文章针对高管文化建设面临的难题,提出以"三拓展",即以高管精神打造向核心作用拓展、先进典型树立向创建载体拓展、文化体系构建向管理实践拓展,破解高管文化构建"三难题"。     

A new measure of resilience: An application to the London Underground

The many varied views on resilience indicate that it is an important concept which has significance in many disciplines, from ecology to psychology to risk/disaster management. Therefore, it is important to be able to quantifiably measure the resilience of systems, and thus be able to make decisions on how the resilience of the system can be improved. In this paper we will work with the definition, due to Pimm (1991), that resilience is “how fast a variable that has been displaced from equilibrium returns to it.” We will think of a system as being more or less resilient depending on the speed with which a system recovers from disruptive events or shocks. Here we consider systems which revert to an equilibrium state from shocks, and introduce a measure of resilience by providing a quantification of the rapidity of these systems’ recovery from shocks.We use a mean-reverting stochastic model to study the diffusive effects of shocks and we apply this model to the case of the London Underground. As a shock diffuses through the network, the human-flow in the network recovers from the shock. The speed with which the passenger counts return to normal is an indicator of how quickly the line is able to recover from the shock and thereafter resume normal operations.     

Can high speed rail offset its embedded emissions?

This paper analyzes the climate implications of investments in high speed railway lines given uncertainty in future transport demand, technology and power production. To capture the uncertainty of estimated parameters, distributions for the annual traffic emissions reduction required to compensate for the embedded emissions from the construction of infrastructure are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. In order to balance the annualized emissions from the railway construction, traffic volumes of more than 10 million annual one-way trips are usually required. Most of the traffic diverted from other modes must come from aviation and the project cannot involve the extensive use of tunnels.     

Making mode detection transferable: extracting activity and travel episodes from GPS data using the multinomial logit model and Python

The increasing popularity of global positioning systems (GPSs) has prompted transportation researchers to develop methods that can automatically extract and classify episodes from GPS data. This paper presents a transferable and efficient method of extracting and classifying activity episodes from GPS data, without additional information. The proposed method, developed using Python®, introduces the use of the multinomial logit (MNL) model in classifying extracted episodes into different types: stop, car, walk, bus, and other (travel) episodes. The proposed method is demonstrated using a GPS dataset from the Space-Time Activity Research project in Halifax, Canada. The GPS data consisted of 5127 person-days (about 47 million points). With input requirements directly derived from GPS data and the efficiency provided by the MNL model, the proposed method looks promising as a transferable and efficient method of extracting activity and travel episodes from GPS data.     

From traces to trajectories: How well can we guess activity locations from mobile phone traces?

Passively generated mobile phone dataset is emerging as a new data source for research in human mobility patterns. Information on individuals’ trajectories is not directly available from such data; they must be inferred. Many questions remain in terms how well we can capture human mobility patterns from these datasets. Only one study has compared the results from a mobile phone dataset to those from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), though the comparison is on two different populations and samples. This study is a very first attempt that develops a procedure to generate a simulated mobile phone dataset containing the ground truth information. This procedure can be used by other researchers and practitioners who are interested in using mobile phone data and want to formally evaluate the effectiveness of an algorithm.To identify activity locations from mobile phone traces, we develop an ensemble of methods: a model-based clustering method to identify clusters, a logistic regression model to distinguish between activity and travel clusters, and a set of behavior-based algorithms to detect types of locations visited. We show that the distribution of the activity locations identified from the simulated mobile phone dataset resembles the ground truth better than the existing studies. For home locations, 70% and 97% of identified homes are within 100 and 1000 m from the truth, respectively. For work places, 65% and 86% of the identified work places are within 100 and 1000 m from the true ones, respectively. These results point to the possibility of using these passively generated mobile phone datasets to supplement or even replace household travel surveys in transportation planning in the future.     

Can rail/sail compete with air travel to Cyprus? A comparison of emissions

Rail and sea voyage journeys to Cyprus from a variety of origins are constructed to derive the travel emissions and travel time per person to compare popular aviation routes. The hypothetical ‘slow travel’ routes are approximately eight to ten times longer than flying. Emissions are lower from certain origins by about 100 kg CO₂ per person per round trip under reasonably high occupancy conditions when compared to current direct air services. Emissions from the sea voyages are derived from a sample of 162 marine vessels using the energy efficiency design index for European ships running at 20 knots.     

Improving estimates of transportation emissions: Modeling hourly truck traffic using period-based car volume data

We estimate hourly truck traffic using period-based car volumes that are usually available from travel demand models. Due to the lack of local or regional data, default vehicle-miles traveled mix by vehicle class in mobile emission inventory models is usually used in transportation emissions inventory estimates. Results from such practice, however, are often far from accurate. Heavy-duty trucks generate orders of magnitudes higher emission rates than light duty vehicles. Vehicle classification data collected from weigh-in-motion stations in California are used to examine the performance of various forms of the method across days of week and geographic areas. We find that the models identified provide satisfactory and statistically robust estimates of truck traffic.     

What makes a car-sharer?

Information from various sources, but most specifically from the YORKSHARE car-sharing schemes, is brought together in an analysis of public reaction to, and participation in, a car-sharing scheme with centralised matching of applicants. The importance of various attributes of the sites, of the individuals and of the scheme organisation are assessed and conclusions are drawn.The motivation of individual participants is analysed and is seen to vary from one person to another depending to some extent on their circumstances, but the universal importance of some features, notably cost savings, is revealed.