世纪之初的俄罗斯人口问题

世纪之交 ,人口问题困扰着俄罗斯。从 1 992年开始 ,俄罗斯总人口数量逐年下降 ,与此同时 ,在婚姻家庭领域 ,出现了一系列不健康趋势 :结婚人数下降 ,离婚人数增长 ,婚前性关系比例提高 ,婚外生育、独身母亲和不完善家庭数量增加。俄罗斯家庭人口领域不良状况的出现 ,除文化方面的原因外 ,与国家经济状况的不景气和不考虑家庭利益而实施的社会经济改革有直接关系。俄罗斯亟待出台一套行之有效的家庭人口政策。     

俄罗斯人口再生产形势的剧变

本文对俄罗斯的总人口发展、人口的生育率与死亡率等人口再生产的状况进行了分析。自苏联解体以来 ,俄罗斯人口的总量出现下降趋势 ,出生率和生育率都大幅度下降 ,而死亡率上升 ,平均寿命骤减 ,人口的性别构成发生显著变化。这些产生人口再生产现象的主要原因在于 1991年以后俄罗斯社会经济转轨时期的艰难曲折     

俄罗斯低生育率的成因及“母亲资本法”的成效评价

近年来俄罗斯人口数量的急剧减少与人口低生育率有直接联系,经济因素、社会生育观、宗教以及价值观差异、个人家庭状况都影响出生率动态,"母亲资本法"的出台对人口出生率的促进作用是毋庸置疑的,但这些社会家庭政策同时也存在迄待完善的地方。     

俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。     

俄罗斯的人口问题

人口问题是困扰俄罗斯诸多问题中紧迫问题之一。俄罗斯的人口危机不单纯是人口问题,是国家综合危机症的一个方面,它同经济问题、家庭问题、妇女价值观问题、妇幼医疗保健问题等等是纠合在一起的,绝非国家几项应急措施所能轻易解决得了的。但俄罗斯必须尽快扼止人口的急降趋势,这涉及国家的根本利益。要解决俄罗斯人口问题,首先要解决经济下滑问题,其次才是制定人口政策和某些价值观念的改变。     

世纪之交俄罗斯东北地区人口发展状况研究

20世纪90年代,俄罗斯政治经济领域发生的深刻变革使其国内的社会经济条件发生了改变,同时,也直接影响到俄罗斯个别地区乃至整个国家的人口发展。本文对俄罗斯东北地区1990年至2014年的人口分布与发展特点进行研究。研究结果显示,人口的流出以及自然增长率下降是导致俄罗斯东北地区人口衰减的主要原因,而出生率和死亡率的变化与东北地区人口的年龄结构也有着紧密的联系。     

世纪末的俄罗斯人口问题和发展展望

２０世纪９０年代以来,随着经济的巨变,俄罗斯产生了一系列的人口问题,如高离婚率、低生育率与高人流比,多种原因造成人口素质下降、人才大量外流等。俄罗斯未来１５年人口数量将继续减少,人口素质略有提高,人口老龄化进程加快,人才外流状况短期内将难有改观。     

俄罗斯人口性别比失调问题探析

由于二战时期特殊的历史条件和政治军事原因,俄罗斯的青壮年男性死亡率很高,从此开了该国人口性别比严重失调的先河;时至今日,俄罗斯的经济发展缓慢,加之地理环境、生育观念和生活习惯等因素的影响,更使得人口性别比失调现象日益严重。性别比偏低导致婚姻家庭领域的不健康趋势上升,女性的权益和地位受到严重损害,单身老年妇女处境尤为艰难,非婚生儿童和青少年的抚养、教育等问题也日趋严重,从而直接酿成了俄罗斯难以摆脱的人口危机。不从根本上解决性别比失调问题,俄罗斯就难以摆脱棘手的人口危机。     

人口变动对气候变化的影响

人口与气候变化关系是一个非常缺乏研究的领域。本文总结近年有关人口变动对气候变化影响研究领域的状况,讨论不同研究方法和模型的应用成果及其局限性,特别介绍了应用整合评估模型iPETS对主要国家和地区温室气体排放预测结果,指出人口变动与经济发展、技术变动等都是人类影响气候变化的决定因素;人口变动的影响不只是人口规模的增减,人口和家庭户结构及其空间分布的变化也是应该考虑的内容;家庭户应该成为气候变化研究的人口分析单位;人口老化、城市化、家庭规模缩小等都是影响未来气候变化的重要人口因素。本研究提供了改进气候预测模型对人口变量处理方式的实例,指出了在制定减缓气候变化政策过程中考虑人口因素的重要性和可操作建议。     

人口红利的作用:一个研究综述

本文梳理了人口红利作用领域的已有文献,讨论了人口红利对经济、人口迁移及收入不平等的作用.目前中国对人口红利的研究主要集中于人口结构变迁对经济的作用.随着二孩政策的全面实施,有更多现实问题需要我们研究和解决,这不仅包括人口红利对人口迁移及收入不平等的作用,还包括经济对家庭生育决策的反作用和第二次人口红利的实现等.     

Rosted Leaves Redder Than February Flowers——Thoughts after Reading Mr. Yu Honglin's Painting Collection

正A day in mid-May this year,Mr.Yu Honglin came to the Oriental Painting and Calligraphy House with his latest published painting and calligraphy collection book.It makes me very excited to share his artistic achievement with you.Mr Yu’s creation style is skillful,confi dent,substantial and vivid.In my opinion,both painting and calligraphy pay attention to brushwork.Meaningful lines are the original starting point of arts.Use Mr.Yu’s seal     

Maternal and Child Health and Relevant Reform Development in China

正The State Council Information Office held a press conference at its press conference hall at 10 am on May 29,2014.Wang Guoqiang,Vice Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)and Director-General of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine;Zhang Shikun,Director-General of Department of Maternal and Child Health Service;and Mao Qun’an,spokesman and Director-General of Publicity Department,introduced the development     

Forum on New Urbanization and Social Integration of Migrant Population 2014 ＆ Symposium on Migrant Population Data Development and Sharing Held in Beijing

正On July 5,2014,the Forum on New Urbanization and Social Integration of Migrant Population2014Symposium on Migrant Population Data Development and Sharing was held,jointly by Department of Family Planning and Service and Management for Migrant Population of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)and Social Transformation and Social Governance Collaborative Innovation Center of Renmin University of China,at School of Chinese Classics at Renmin University of China.     

Economic Impact of Rural to Urban Labor Migration in China from 1991 to 2011

This paper quantitatively explores the size of rural labor force transfer and the specified flow nonagricultural industries, and the corresponding contribution of the increase of labor force utilization and productivity to economic growth from 1991 to 2011. The transfer size increased from 86.73 million people in 1990 to more than 250 million people in 2011. In 2011, 53.7% of the transfer labor worked in second industry, the others in third industry. By using growth accounting, this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population, labor force productivity and labor force utilization. Firstly, the paper calculated the real average annual growth rate of these three factor from 1991 to 2011 and their contributions to GDP growth. Then we calculated the changes of three factors and GDP'growth rates under the scenario without rural labor transfer, and finally got the contribution of rural labor transfer to GDP growth by comparing the difference between real and assumption scenario. The resuit shows that from 1991 to 2011, the real average annual growth rate of three factors were 1.3%, 9.3% and-0.3%, and their contribution the GDP growth was 12.2%, 90.2% and-2.4%separately. Under the scenario without rural labor transfer, the average annual growth rates of labor force productivity and labor force utilization would reduce to 8.9% and-1.4%, while the GDP average annual growth rate would reduce from 10.3% to 8.8%. The profound analysis in details shows that the transfer promoted labor force utilization by 30.7%and productivity by 23.9% annually on average, therefore promoting GDP by 63.7%, and GDP growth rate by 1.6% annually on average. On the one hand, through the utilizing of the ‘surplus rural labor force', the transfer promoted the labor force utilization, then made the potential population dividend brought by the increase of working age population size practical; on the other hand, through promoting of labor force industry structure, the transfer promoted the total productivity. The transfer has been and will be an important driving force of economic growth in China.     

Five Ministries and Commissions including NHFPC Jointly Issued Implementation Program on Firmly Advancing Rural Poverty Alleviation in Health and Family Planning

正In August 2014,5 ministries including National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),State Development and Reform Commission,Ministry of Finance,State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development,and State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine jointly issued Implementation Program on Firmly Advancing Rural Poverty Alleviation in Health and Family     

China Plans to Set December 4th As National Constitution Day

正The 11th Session of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth National People’s Congress deliberated and adopted the Decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on Setting National Constitution Day(Draft)on the morning of October 27,2014.According to the Draft,China plans to set December 4th every year as National Constitution Day.On December 4,1982,the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China,the current constitution,was adopted at the 5th Session of the Fifth     

Family Migration Pattern in China

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and ＂getting old before getting rich＂ in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change＇？ Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not retirement age and Long-term stability in a sustainable system,Gradually raising the replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or cotlntries,but the latter is more urgent.     

Urban Depression Patients Should Receive Public Attention

正In China,although some celebrities like Leslie Cheung and Yang Kun openly disclosed their symptoms of depression and many people have heard about depression,few people really understand and pay attention to depression.Not long ago,the famous American comedian Robin Williams committed suicide due to depression,which upset many people.However,generally,people still believe that depression is only a"mood disorder",and     

Social Security Green Paper： Community Nursing will be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future .

正The green paper on social security Report on Social Security Development in China 2014 announced in Beijing on July 1,2014 stated that community nursing would serve as the preferred way for old-age support in the future while there was still a large shortfall in community nursing,which required urgent improvement.Community Nursing Will Be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future At present,China is facing the severe challenge of population ageing.Elderly aged over 60 years old have     

Work Hard and Forge Ahead to Further Promote the Prosperity of Population Science——Summary of the 8th Congress & 2014 Annual Meeting of China Population Association

正On 1and 2 September 2014,China Population Association grandly convened the 8th Congress2014Annual Meeting of China Population Association in Beijing and smoothly completed the re-election of its executive council.The annual meeting of China Population Association has been a great communication event held once every year for the academia.In regard to the new conditions,patterns and features of China’s population,economic and social development,demographers