基于广义人口结构的区域劳动生产率差异分析

人口结构变动通过作用于物质资本和人力资本积累影响区域劳动生产率.本文采用中国1993-2014年29个省份的面板数据,对从人口年龄、性别、城乡分布以及受教育程度四个方面所衡量的广义人口结构对区域劳动生产率的影响进行了实证研究.结果发现,人口结构对劳动生产率的影响在东、中、西部三大区域存在较大差异,其中少儿抚养比下降、老年抚养比上升带来的正向影响仅在东部和西部地区显著,人口城镇化为东部地区带来正向效应,却对西部地区产生抑制作用.高中教育对劳动生产率没有明显的推动作用,大专及以上高等教育则带来了正向影响.研究还发现,性别比例在中部地区导致劳动生产率呈现倒"U"型的变动过程,而其在西部地区则表现为"U"型的变动过程.由此,隐含的政策含义是:提高劳动生产率、缩小地区差异,有必要进一步放开生育政策,提高女性劳动力占比,均衡男女边际生产率,积极推进欠发达地区就近城镇化.     

改革以来中国劳动生产率的增长因素：基于产业结构的分析

改革开放以来，伴随着经济的快速成长，我国的劳动生产率在迅速提高。本文利用指数方法，从产业结构的角度实证分析了改革以来我国劳动生产率的增长因素。结果发现．劳动生产率增长的主要来自产业内部的纯生产率效应，而就业结构变动的贡献既不稳定，也不显著。在产业间劳动生产率差距不断扩大的背景下，本文最后讨论了我国劳动生产率增长中就业结构变动贡献不足的原因。     

我国产业结构与就业结构的协调度及对策研究

产业结构与就业结构协调与否,对经济发展和就业有着重要的影响。本文首先回顾了改革开放以来,我国产业结构与就业结构的演进过程;其次,引入结构偏差系数、劳动生产率系数及就业弹性等指标,量化产业结构与就业结构不协调的程度;最后,着眼经济社会全面协调可持续发展的要求,建议扩大就业的总体思路为:"保持增速、优化结构、畅通流动"。     

市场制度、人口红利和中国的出口增长

基于1978-2014年中国30个省份的面板数据,考察了市场制度、人口红利及两者交互项对中国出口增长的影响.研究发现,对中国总体和东、中部地区而言,市场制度和人口红利促进了出口增长;对西部地区而言,市场制度和人口红利抑制了出口增长;其中中国总体和东、西部地区市场制度水平的提高促进了人口红利的转变,而中部地区市场制度水平的提高反而抑制了人口红利的转变.分时期回归发现,市场制度对出口的影响趋势符合"N"型曲线,人口红利对出口的影响趋势符合"M"型曲线.市场制度对出口的影响程度始终大于人口红利对出口的影响程度.     

西部地区人才战略探讨

西部大开发就是西部大开放 ,只有扩大开放才能真正实现西部大开发的战略目标。西部大开发面临前所未有的良好的国际国内环境。本文分析了西部地区人力资源的文化素质 ,人口的思想素质以及缺乏人才的关键。提出了西部地区人才资源开发在教育上的战略 ,留住人才方面的战略和在引进人才方面的战略     

西部大开发与人口健康之间的双向关系

本文分析了东西部人口健康水平的差异及造成这种差异的因素 ,探讨了西部大开发与提高人口健康水平之间的双向关系。主要结果如下 :( 1)东西部人口健康水平存在显著的差异 ;( 2 )西部大开发对增进西部人口健康将产生巨大的影响 ;( 3)提高人口健康水平可以提高“生存资本”和人力资本存量 ;( 4 )应充分发挥人口健康在西部大开发中的作用 ,打破西部地区贫困和疾病之间的恶性循环 ,不断培育西部地区可持续发展的能力     

中国西部大开发——人口与计划生育要先行

○各个地区在西部大开发过程中 ,必须将人口问题视作人口、资源、环境与可持续发展互动关系中的首要问题 ,尤其是人口控制问题将是能否实现西部大开发战略目标以及西部地区长期可持续发展的先决条件。○控制人口数量 ,为西部大开发提供良好的人口经济环境 ;提高人口素质 ,为西部大开发提供丰富的人力资本基础；优化人口结构 ,为西部大开发提供稳定的人口社会环境。实施西部大开发 ,通过各个地区的共同进步 ,达到中国的普遍繁荣 ,从而实现中华民族的复兴 ,这是新中国第三代领导人在世纪之交的庄严宣告。如果说 ,在过去的２０年 ,东部地区率先…     

“金砖四国”城市化进程中劳动力就业状况研究

在经济发展过程中,劳动力就业和城市化进程具有很强的关联性。"金砖四国"城市化的进程不同,中国和印度处在城市化加速阶段,就业结构明显存在着分布失衡和质效低下的问题,尤其是中国,作为劳动力大国,但远非劳动力强国,劳动力素质和劳动生产率显著落后于俄罗斯和巴西,应该在三次产业间和产业内进行结构的调整和优化,改善劳动力素质结构,努力提高劳动生产率,以促进经济的持续发展。     

论生态移民与长江上游可持续发展

生态环境保护与建设是中国西部大开发的根本和切入点 ,长江上游是西部地区和中国生态环境建设的重点。本文在对生态移民进行界定的基础上 ,通过对长江上游生态脆弱与环境恶化状况以及该地区在整个长江流域重要地位的分析 ,研究了长江上游生态移民与西部地区生态环境建设等方面的关系 ,提出了在生态移民的过程中应当关注的问题 ,进而阐述了长江上游生态移民在提高长江流域乃至全国可持续发展能力中的地位和作用。     

人力资本投资与西部地区大开发

在我国西部大开发中最为重要的条件不是物质资本 ,而是人力资本。人力资本存量水平不仅决定着一个国家或地区物质资本的形成和积累水平 ,而且还决定着物质资本和使用效率。○我国西部地区教育发展落后 ,政府教育投入少 ,人力资源开发程度低 ,人力资本供给短缺。○人力资本是西部大开发战略实施的基础 ,人力资源开发是西部大开发的前提 ,人力资源开发应该成为西部大开发战略的优先发展领域。人力资本投资与西部地区大开发□李建民西部大开发与人口问题最近中央政府提出了我国西部地区大开发的战略决策。应该制定怎样的发展战略、政府的核心作…     

Rosted Leaves Redder Than February Flowers——Thoughts after Reading Mr. Yu Honglin's Painting Collection

正A day in mid-May this year,Mr.Yu Honglin came to the Oriental Painting and Calligraphy House with his latest published painting and calligraphy collection book.It makes me very excited to share his artistic achievement with you.Mr Yu’s creation style is skillful,confi dent,substantial and vivid.In my opinion,both painting and calligraphy pay attention to brushwork.Meaningful lines are the original starting point of arts.Use Mr.Yu’s seal     

Maternal and Child Health and Relevant Reform Development in China

正The State Council Information Office held a press conference at its press conference hall at 10 am on May 29,2014.Wang Guoqiang,Vice Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)and Director-General of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine;Zhang Shikun,Director-General of Department of Maternal and Child Health Service;and Mao Qun’an,spokesman and Director-General of Publicity Department,introduced the development     

Forum on New Urbanization and Social Integration of Migrant Population 2014 ＆ Symposium on Migrant Population Data Development and Sharing Held in Beijing

正On July 5,2014,the Forum on New Urbanization and Social Integration of Migrant Population2014Symposium on Migrant Population Data Development and Sharing was held,jointly by Department of Family Planning and Service and Management for Migrant Population of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)and Social Transformation and Social Governance Collaborative Innovation Center of Renmin University of China,at School of Chinese Classics at Renmin University of China.     

Economic Impact of Rural to Urban Labor Migration in China from 1991 to 2011

This paper quantitatively explores the size of rural labor force transfer and the specified flow nonagricultural industries, and the corresponding contribution of the increase of labor force utilization and productivity to economic growth from 1991 to 2011. The transfer size increased from 86.73 million people in 1990 to more than 250 million people in 2011. In 2011, 53.7% of the transfer labor worked in second industry, the others in third industry. By using growth accounting, this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population, labor force productivity and labor force utilization. Firstly, the paper calculated the real average annual growth rate of these three factor from 1991 to 2011 and their contributions to GDP growth. Then we calculated the changes of three factors and GDP'growth rates under the scenario without rural labor transfer, and finally got the contribution of rural labor transfer to GDP growth by comparing the difference between real and assumption scenario. The resuit shows that from 1991 to 2011, the real average annual growth rate of three factors were 1.3%, 9.3% and-0.3%, and their contribution the GDP growth was 12.2%, 90.2% and-2.4%separately. Under the scenario without rural labor transfer, the average annual growth rates of labor force productivity and labor force utilization would reduce to 8.9% and-1.4%, while the GDP average annual growth rate would reduce from 10.3% to 8.8%. The profound analysis in details shows that the transfer promoted labor force utilization by 30.7%and productivity by 23.9% annually on average, therefore promoting GDP by 63.7%, and GDP growth rate by 1.6% annually on average. On the one hand, through the utilizing of the ‘surplus rural labor force', the transfer promoted the labor force utilization, then made the potential population dividend brought by the increase of working age population size practical; on the other hand, through promoting of labor force industry structure, the transfer promoted the total productivity. The transfer has been and will be an important driving force of economic growth in China.     

Five Ministries and Commissions including NHFPC Jointly Issued Implementation Program on Firmly Advancing Rural Poverty Alleviation in Health and Family Planning

正In August 2014,5 ministries including National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),State Development and Reform Commission,Ministry of Finance,State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development,and State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine jointly issued Implementation Program on Firmly Advancing Rural Poverty Alleviation in Health and Family     

China Plans to Set December 4th As National Constitution Day

正The 11th Session of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth National People’s Congress deliberated and adopted the Decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on Setting National Constitution Day(Draft)on the morning of October 27,2014.According to the Draft,China plans to set December 4th every year as National Constitution Day.On December 4,1982,the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China,the current constitution,was adopted at the 5th Session of the Fifth     

Family Migration Pattern in China

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and ＂getting old before getting rich＂ in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change＇？ Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not retirement age and Long-term stability in a sustainable system,Gradually raising the replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or cotlntries,but the latter is more urgent.     

Urban Depression Patients Should Receive Public Attention

正In China,although some celebrities like Leslie Cheung and Yang Kun openly disclosed their symptoms of depression and many people have heard about depression,few people really understand and pay attention to depression.Not long ago,the famous American comedian Robin Williams committed suicide due to depression,which upset many people.However,generally,people still believe that depression is only a"mood disorder",and     

Social Security Green Paper： Community Nursing will be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future .

正The green paper on social security Report on Social Security Development in China 2014 announced in Beijing on July 1,2014 stated that community nursing would serve as the preferred way for old-age support in the future while there was still a large shortfall in community nursing,which required urgent improvement.Community Nursing Will Be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future At present,China is facing the severe challenge of population ageing.Elderly aged over 60 years old have     

Work Hard and Forge Ahead to Further Promote the Prosperity of Population Science——Summary of the 8th Congress & 2014 Annual Meeting of China Population Association

正On 1and 2 September 2014,China Population Association grandly convened the 8th Congress2014Annual Meeting of China Population Association in Beijing and smoothly completed the re-election of its executive council.The annual meeting of China Population Association has been a great communication event held once every year for the academia.In regard to the new conditions,patterns and features of China’s population,economic and social development,demographers