The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy

This paper presents the simplest possible general-equilibrium model of an open economy in which producer and consumer decisions are both intra- and intertemporally consistent. Consumers maximize the present value of the utility of consumption; producers maximize the present value of profits. The model solves for the set of intertemporally consistent prices. The parsimonious structure of the model is achieved by dividing the economy into two producing sectors—exports and domestic goods—and two consumed goods—imports and domestic goods. As a result, there is only one endogenous price per period to be solved for (the price of the domestic good), although “structural” questions, such as the evolution of the real exchange rate, can be posed with the model. Furthermore, with this structural breakdown, the model can be calibrated with national accounts data only. In the paper, we show how to calibrate such a model (including specification of an adjustment-cost function, to avoid “bang-bang” behavior) and use the model to examine various questions where intertemporal issues are important, including terms-of-trade shocks and tariff reform.     

Nondestructive creation: Entrepreneurship and management research in the study of growth

Economists’ focus on institutions in explaining economic growth, while important, can obscure the significant role played by individual entrepreneurs and the process of entrepreneurship. The prevailing view of entrepreneurship in economics (which continues to shape prevailing public policies) centers on Schumpeter's famous concept of “creative destruction.” In the context of sustained high levels of economic growth, as in the recent American experience, I focus on a different feature of entrepreneurship—“nondestructive creation,” in which the uncoordinated contest of ideas and search for new applications of existing ideas generate growth. And this nondestructive creation should be analyzed and can be fostered.     

Explaining third-party success in gubernatorial elections: The cases of Alaska, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota

In the 1990s alone, four states elected third-party governors. Walter Hickel of Alaska and Lowell Weicker of Connecticut were elected in 1990. Maine elected Angus King in 1994. And Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998. In this article, I examine these four cases in an attempt to identify the factors that contribute to third-party electoral success. I apply two models to these cases. The first model, “alternative culture,” holds that certain voters—regardless of specific context—are predisposed to support alternative candidates. The second model, “institutional context,” looks at factors such as name recognition, resources, and access to media as explanations of third-party success. I find that except for the influence of “partisan independence,” there is little evidence to support the persistence of an alternative culture of third-party voting. Rather, these four cases are linked by a context particularly favorable to these alternative candidates.     

The effect of residence in enclaves on civic concern: An initial exploration

Will those residing in urban enclaves—enclosed socially homogenous residential communities protected by private security—have a lower level of civic concern as compared to those who do not reside in such enclaves? Reich's (1991) work suggests that this is to be expected. To conduct an empirical test, two random samples were drawn from two areas of New York City, one a residential enclave—Battery Park City—the other a non-enclave—Chelsea. The analysis establishes that those who do not live in the enclave have a statistically significant higher level of civic concern. Sample respondent years of education, age, income, gender, and career (arts/business) differences were employed as control variables; after having introduced each control variable independently, the main research hypothesis was sustained.     

Economic growth, poverty, and the international agencies

During the past few years, the international agencies have been playing down economic growth as the main road to the elimination of poverty and emphasizing the role of asset and income redistribution. The latest reflection of this attitude is the so-called “basic needs” approach. This essay attempts to demonstrate that where economic growth has been sufficiently high and sustained, it has been a powerful means of alleviating poverty. Growth has not “failed”; there is simply not enough International agencies should be cautious in advocating redistribution, for the results .     

The politics of safety net reform in Southern Europe during the Great Recession: Introduction to the regional issue

Southern European welfare states have developed relatively solid social insurance income maintenance programs, but have lacked effective means-tested benefit systems to address poverty and protect outsiders. Spain and Portugal are usually considered the two first countries to depart from the traditional path with the creation of minimum income schemes between 1988 and 1995. In the Spanish case, minimum income programs were established at the regional level and are very heterogeneous despite their institutional stability. The limited extent of these programs in most Spanish regions must be put in the context of national means-tested income support schemes in the fields of pensions and unemployment. The introduction of these programs in the 1980s was also a significant path departure. The combination of these programs has offered some income support to low income groups left unprotected by traditional insurance benefits, although in a patchy and limited way, especially as regards the working-age population. The social effects of the Great Recession, especially in terms of long-term unemployment, evictions and impoverishment, have reopened the debate on how to combat monetary poverty, which has been on the general election agenda since 2014–2015. Most regions have reformed their programs in different directions since 2008, under the contradictory pressures of growing demand and financial constraints. Such debate, however, has not been able yet to set a clear basis for a new development of anti-poverty income support policy.     

Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia

This paper develops a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and uses the recently developed technique of ‘generalized’ impulse response analysis to test the empirical relationships in the Colombian economy between coffee revenues and a set of macro variables. We find that coffee price (revenue) shocks have exerted an important influence on money growth, inflation, and real exchange rates, and the direction of these effects are in line with some of the predictions of traditional Dutch Disease type models. The major difference between our results and the results of Dutch Disease type models arise in the effects of coffee booms on real output. We find that in the time horizon of 5 years after the boom, real output has increased in response to the effects of the coffee boom. The finding that coffee booms can result in positive long-run output effects is an important finding since it contradicts the traditional conclusion of Dutch Disease type models which envision an adverse long-run effect on output. We also find that the long-run effect of coffee booms is to reduce both current account and government deficits. These results illustrate strikingly that the term “Dutch Disease” is an unfortunately pejorative term that obscures the fact that coffee booms need not be viewed as a “disease” but as an extraordinary opportunity to strengthen internal and external balances.     

Domestic violence against women: A field study in Turkey

Factors affecting domestic violence against women in four Turkish cities (Adıyaman, Sivas, Denizli and Kırklareli) having different socioeconomic structures, are analyzed in this study. These factors consist of social, cultural, economic and psychological factors. In contrast to what we expected based on earlier literature, family income level has a positive relationship with violence. Logistic regression analysis also revealed that being a university graduate and having a personal income decreases the prevalence of violence as expected. However, working women and women with children are more prone to domestic violence. Again, there is a strong association between the neighborhood where the family lives and the incidence of violence. The extent of male dominance, as measured by the question “How are decisions taken in the family” is also associated with domestic violence: woman is less likely to be abused in households where decisions are taken collectively. Likewise, families where women have to get permission from the husband to carry out certain activities, have an increased incidence of suffering from husband's violence. Psychological factors, like being abused or having witnessed violence as a child, are also significantly correlated with domestic violence.     

Short run responses to foreign exchange crises

This paper constructs a short-run general equilibrium model for an LDC-type economy. Some key features are the possibility of excess capacity and the presence of quantitative restrictions on exports and imports. A rich variety of pricing possibilities for tradeable goods is allowed for, including “water in the tariff” as well as domestic prices exceeding world prices with binding import quotas.The model is used to analyze alternative responses to a foreign-exchange crisis. Import controls, devaluation and cuts in government expenditures are compared. We find that: i) import quotas can worsen the balance of trade, ii) rationing foreign exchange for noncompetitive imports is stagflationary, increasing prices even under excess capacity, iii) a devaluation has strong effects on income distribution, although output and employment expand, and iv) cuts in government spending are deflationary but the income distribution effects are neutral.     

Economic globalization and violent civil conflict: Is openness a pathway to peace?

There has been little systematic assessment of the impact of globalization on armed conflict within states. Drawing from bargaining theories of conflict, we posit that the global marketplace functions as an “audience” that rewards or punishes the policy choices of states. Globalization, which connotes an increased exposure to this marketplace, increases the relevance of the “costs” that this “audience” may impose. These prospective costs thus encourage peace and stability, as states that are integrated into the global economy have more to lose by instigating and sustaining violent conflict within their borders. Employing a two-stage Heckman Model, we assess the impact of various facets of globalization, including access to information, trade, foreign investment and aid flows, on intrastate conflict within the developing countries for 1990–1996.     

The determinants of living wage rates

Several cities have recently adopted living wage ordinances which mandate that firms contracting with the city pay their workers an hourly wage at or above the legislated “living wage rate” set by the city. Following the literature on minimum wage rate determination, I explore factors influencing living wage rates. Using a sample of 39 cities, the results show that living wage rates are particularly sensitive to per capita income, fair-market rent, the minimum wage rate, the proximity of the city to other living wage cities, and the year that the city adopted the living wage ordinance.     

The Trade Liberalization Evaluation (TLE) Methodology

This research paper proposes a new trade analysis model to evaluate the trend and stages of trade liberalization of any country. This new trade analysis model is entitled “The Trade Liberalization Evaluation (TLE) Methodology.” The TLE Methodology will introduce new indexes and graphs.There are four basic phases in the implementation of TLE Methodology. The first phase is the design of the multi-input tariff database table by production sector (agriculture, heavy industry,¹ light industry² and services). The second is the measuring of the Trade Liberalization Index by Production Sector (Xi), it is divided by the Agriculture Trade Liberalization Index (X1), Heavy Industry Trade Liberalization Index (X2), Light Industry Trade Liberalization Index (X3), and Services Trade Liberalization Index (X4). The third phase is the measurement of the Area of Coverage of the Trade Liberalization (ACTL) index. The last phase is the measuring of the Trade Liberalization Stage (LTS) index.The general objective of TLE Methodology is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the trade liberalization trend and stages of any country from a global perspective—based on a group of indexes and graphs. The TLE Methodology is not intended to be a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a special group of countries or regions. It is not constrained by issues about the region or the development stages of any country in a region that is interested in integrating into a Free Trade Area. TLE Methodology, in effect, is a simple and flexible scheme, which can be applied to any case of trade liberalization.     

An analysis of International Bulfer Stocks for cocoa and copper through dynamic optimization

Optimal control theory is used to analyze buffer stock price stabilisation. Linear econometric models of the world cocoa and copper markets are estimated over the period 1956-75 and the simulated to determine the “systematic” price for each commodity—the price when stochastic sources of market variation are suppressed. Stabilization at this price reduces the instability of producer revenue and also increases total revenue for both commodities. However, the buffer stocks are expensive. Net costs over the period 1966-76 are estimated at $1.7 billion for cocoa and $0.9 billion for copper.     

Multicountry dynamic multipliers under fixed and floating exchange rates: An econometric analysis

The present paper attempts to analyze the dynamic multiplier effects of fiscal monetary policies for developed countries in a consistent framework of a global econometric model under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper first discusses the estimation of exchange rate functions for eight developed countries with special reference to “fundamentals” in economic performance such as international gaps in inflation, productivity, expected real rate of return, and so on. The results are then incorporated into the global model to derive and compare dynamic multipliers under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. “Insulation effects” are observed in most cases in terms of both output and inflation, though this differs according to the country. Policy implications are discussed at the end.     

Ranked-Weighted Utilities and Qualitative Convolution

For gambles—non-numerical consequences attached to uncertain chance events—analogues are proposed for the sum of independent random variables and their convolution. Joint receipt of gambles is the analogue of the sum of random variables. Because it has no unique expansion as a first-order gamble analogous to convolution, a definition of qualitative convolution is proposed. Assuming ranked, weighted-utility representations (RWU) over gains (and, separately, over losses, but not mixtures of both), conditions are given for the equivalence of joint receipt, qualitative convolution, and a utility expression like expected value. As background, some properties of RWU are developed.     

Where o’ where did my baseball cards go?: Race,performance, and placement in the Topps ERA, 1956–1980

On the surface, baseball cards appear to be little more than uninteresting object of child's play; yet they provide invaluable data for assessing unique aspects of the social order. They reveal much about the state of society when they were produced and the people who collected them. This paper examines the unique numbering system the Topps company developed to differentiate among the “royalty of the diamond” from 1956 to 1980. Their system assigned to each card in a set a number that explicitly designated its placement, while implicitly establishing a hierarchical ordering among the players, ostensibly based on performance. It is arguable whether the numbering system Topps developed was based on performance or the ascribed characteristic of race. The results of our work suggest that player performance, not race, was the primary factor in the assignment of “prestigious” card numbers in Topps’ system.     

Governance structures of socially complex knowledge flows: Exchange, entitlement and gifts

The intangible aspects of knowledge transfer in multinational corporations (MNCs) continue to be a crucial area of research in social science research and raise the issue of knowledge governance structures. The purpose of this conceptual note is twofold. Firstly, we believe that there is more than one governance structure for successful knowledge transfers and flows. We provide a typology of three governance structures: “exchange,” “entitlement,” “gifts.” Secondly, most MNCs will need to take advantage of all three or a combination of these three socially complex governance structures.     

Trade sophistication in developing countries: Does export destination matter?

We investigate whether exports to developed economies stimulate export sophistication (represented by UNCTAD’s index of export similarity) in developing countries. Results from fixed-effects estimations suggest that exporting to developed economies enhances the sophistication of exports in the exporting country but there are diminishing returns to this effect. We also find non-linear effects from FDI and income on export sophistication with the effect of income exhibiting diminishing returns which suggests that the gains from exporting to developed economies are higher for lower-income countries; i.e., as income increases, the gains taper off. We discuss the policy implications of these results.     

Assimilation and discriminatory perceptions and experiences: The case of Hispanics in the United States

This paper examines the relationship between assimilation and discriminatory practices encountered by Hispanic-Americans. Theories of intergroup relations have typically assumed that as members of minority ethnic groups assimilate to a dominant group, they perceive and experience lower degrees of discrimination directed against them. In reviewing theories of majority–minority relations, we have called this the “assimilationist” model. This view has been opposed by some scholars who argue that as minority ethnics assimilate and become more knowledgeable of the larger society, they perceive and experience higher levels of discrimination against them and their group. We have termed this the “conflict model” of interethnic relations. Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Latinos, conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, we test opposing hypotheses based on these two models. Our findings, while exploratory, largely support the assimilationist model, with a few contradictory results. We discuss these findings and their implications for understanding the current situation of Hispanics in the United States.     

Globalization and income inequality: Implications for intellectual property rights

This paper examines the impact of globalization on income inequality for a cross-section of 62 developing countries over a period of 17 years (1985–2001). The results of the study indicate that globalization explains only 15% of the variance in income inequality. More specifically, the results show that (1) strengthening intellectual property rights and openness are positively correlated with income inequality; (2) foreign direct investment is negative and significantly correlated with income inequality but this is not robust to different model specifications; (3) the institutional infrastructure is negatively correlated with income inequality. The study's findings and the review of the literature suggest that globalization has both costs and benefits and that the opportunity for economic gains can be best realized within an environment that supports and promotes sound and credible government institutions, education and technological development.