基于系统动力学的公路PPP项目经济效益评估

经济效益不足是影响交通PPP项目推广应用的主要障碍,建立一个科学有效的经济效益评估模型是该领域亟待解决的重要难题。本文以公路PPP项目为研究对象,全面系统地识别出影响公路PPP项目经济效益的各种因素,并着重分析年交通量、路面状况、维护成本等因素间的复杂作用关系;然后引入系统动力学方法,构建公路PPP项目经济效益的系统动力学模型,定量分析各个风险因素对经济效益的作用程度以及经济效益的动态变化趋势;最后通过实例仿真证明模型的有效性和实用性,为保障和提升公路PPP项目经济效益提供合理化建议。研究结果表明:年交通量对公路PPP项目的经济效益影响最大,但维护决定、路面性能和补贴系数等因素对经济效益的动态调节作用也不容小觑。     

公路PPP项目的运营风险与预算管理分析

通过分析风险管理矩阵中公路PPP项目的运营风险与管理风险,详细叙述了预算管理管理在公路PPP项目管理中的作用,分析结果表明,实施PPP模式,可以不断提升企业管理水平、技术水平和服务水平,能够提高运营效率.规范的PPP模式能够降低项目生命周期成本,从而有利于项目整体运营效率的提升.     

收费公路PPP项目投资与造价分析

为了有效扩大收费公路PPP项目整体效益,保障工程建设安全、质量与进度,缓解公路建设各方经济压力,需要做好收费公路PPP项目的投资与造价控制,以充分发挥PPP模式在收费公路领域运用的重要意义。基于此,结合PPP理念与收费公路PPP项目概述,深入研究收费公路PPP项目投资与造价控制现状,并结合现存问题提出相应解决对策,以有效控制收费公路PPP项目投资和造价。     

PPP项目投资风险分析与对策建议

运营期费用与营业收入是PPP项目工程造价投资风险分析评估的重要依据,包含了投资的效益与偿债能力两个方面;其次是通过对项目的风险识别与评估为PPP项目的实施提出科学的对策建议。以湖北香溪长江公路大桥PPP合作模式投资建设实践,总结PPP项目投资风险防范经验,以及科学合理的风险防范对策,可为其他类似工程项目提供借鉴参考。     

政府还贷公路项目应用PPP模式存在的问题及应对建议

结合实践从政府还贷公路与经营}生公路的区别着手,就社会资本参与政府还贷公路PPP项目的风险进行了详细分析,并就政府还贷公路PPP项目的交易结构设计给出了不同的方案建议。     

浅析收费公路PPP项目投资与造价控制

针对收费公路PPP项目投资与造价控制中存在的问题进行分析,并提出一些建议。此次分析的主要目的是供各同行参考,更希望对国内公路PPP项目建设有所帮助。     

公路PPP项目风险管理

分析了PPP模式应用于高速公路项目中的优势,提出了应用PPP模式进行公路项目风险管理可以妥善应对政治、技术、融资以及市场风险。采用PPP模式可以促进资源优势互补,降低政府建设的风险,同时还能提高项目运营效率、促进我国社会的进步。     

基于投资价值的经营性PPP项目投资决策分析

以经营性PPP项目为例,在综合考虑经营性PPP项目本质的基础上,引入实物期权模型和净现值模型分析项目的投资价值,并与投资的机会成本进行比较。然后将该模型应用于某市特许经营PPP项目进行实证分析,为社会资本参与经营性PPP项目提供决策依据。     

交通量可观测条件下PPP 公路项目收益分配

收益分配是否合理关系到PPP 项目的成败,交通量的可观测性为建立科学合理的PPP 公路项目收益分配机制提供了新思路。为建立科学合理的收益分配机制,以公私双方投入和风险分摊情况确定出初始收益分配比例,提出合理交通量区间的概念,分析了市场自由竞争条件下政府、私营方、公路使用者的三方博弈,从而得到实际定价方式对私营方造成的效用损失,分析了实际定价方式对三方效用的影响,并以观测到的交通量和私营方效用损失为基础,对初始收益分配比例进行了动态调节,达到了“三赢”的目的。     

基于平衡记分卡的轨道交通PPP项目绩效评价体系研究

从我国轨道交通PPP项目绩效评价体系缺失的现状出发,借鉴平衡记分卡四维的理念,在分析轨道交通PPP项目特性的基础上,构建了轨道交通PPP项目的六维绩效评价体系。以灰色关联度分析法确定指标权重,然后选择白化权函数灰评估法确定指标的聚类系数,以聚类系数评价轨道交通PPP项目的绩效。最后,以徐州市轨道交通1号线PPP项目为对象进行实证分析。     

System Dynamics (SD) -based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects

The design of concession price is essential to financial viability of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) highway projects. It is one of the most important variables that need to be determined during the negotiation period. However, there are few methods available for calculating the value of this variable. Research described in this paper aims to develop a reliable, objective, and systematic model for determining a rational concession price for PPP highway projects based on pro forma financial statements developed during the feasibility study period. The pricing parameters and price risk factors of PPP highway project were first identified and compiled through a comprehensive literature review. A concession pricing model using System Dynamics technique was then developed based on concession pricing parameters and the effectiveness of the proposed SD-based concession pricing model was verified by a real toll tunnel project located in China. The test result shows that the proposed model is reliable, accurate, and suitable for the application by practitioners for concession price determination. To overcome the effect of risk factors on concession price, a pricing adjustment model using Case-base Reasoning (CBR) technique was proposed to consider the unquantifiable risk factors. It is believed that a rational and practical concession pricing model can create a ‘win–win’ situation for both the private investor and the host government. This research framework can also be used as a reference to study other facilities' pricing models.     

Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China — A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach

Earlier research works on PPP showed that an objective, reliable, and practical risk assessment model for PPP projects is essential to the successful implementation of PPP projects. However, actual empirical research studies in this research area are rather limited. This paper reports the second stage of a funded research study, which aims to develop a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for assessing the risk level of a particular critical risk group (CRG) and the overall risk level associated with PPP projects in China. At the first research stage, thirty-four risk factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and 3 new risk factors were proposed during a two-round Delphi questionnaire survey. The most critical 17 risk factors were selected through the calculation of normalized values. The correlation of these 17 critical risk factors (CRFs) was further analyzed via factor analysis and 6 CRGs were formulated, namely: (1) Macroeconomic Risk; (2) Construction and Operation Risk; (3) Government Maturity Risk; (4) Market Environment Risk; (5) Economic Viability Risk; and (6) Government Intervention. On the basis of the research works conducted at the first research stage, the weightings for each of the 17 critical risk factors (CRFs) and 6 CRGs were determined through the two-round Delphi questionnaire survey. A set of knowledge-based fuzzy inference rules was then established to set up the membership function for the 17 CRFs and 6 CRGs. The empirical research findings showed that the overall risk level of PPP highway projects is between “moderate risk” and “high risk”. Hence it could be construed that investment in PPP highway projects in China may be considered as risky. In fact, the Delphi survey respondents perceived that “Government Intervention” is the most CRG; with “Government Maturity Risk” being the second; “Economic Viability Risk” the third; “Market Environment Risk” the fourth; “Construction and Operation Risk” the fifth; and “Macroeconomic Risk” the last. These findings revealed that government intervention and corruption may be the major hurdles to the success of PPP highway projects in China. These may be caused by inadequate law and supervision system and poor public decision-making process. Although the fuzzy synthetic evaluation model was primarily developed for PPP projects in general, the research method could be replicated in a specific type of PPP project, such as water treatment projects and hospital projects, to produce similar models for inter-type comparisons. By doing so, it provides an opportunity for practitioners to assess the risk level of different types of PPP projects based on objective evidence rather than subjective judgment. The most CRG for different types of PPP projects could be identified and both precautionary and remedial actions could be taken as soon as possible. Such an extension would provide a deeper understanding of managing different types of PPP projects.     

PPP 项目公司的股权结构及其在某养老项目中的应用

PPP 项目的发起人一般以股东身份设立项目公司作为项目的实施载体,通过整理项目融资和公司治理等股权结构的相关研究成果,分析国内外8 个典型PPP 实际项目,发现项目公司股权结构是影响项目实施效率的重要因素,主要股东通常具有专业化、短期利益或长期战略等特点,项目公司股东权益合理变化有利于公司应对PPP 项目的阶段性风险、提升公司价值。针对某社会养老机构PPP 项目的股权结构设计分析,进一步探讨股权结构设计和调整在PPP 项目中的具体操作方法和应用价值,可为政府解决公共产品和服务供给紧缺的矛盾、为大中型企业开发类似PPP 项目提供参考。     

基于灰色聚类的水利工程项目PPP模式适用性研究

随着我国城市化进程加快,水利基础设施领域建设需求量增加,政府财政负担加重,建设资金不足成为制约我国水利建设发展的主要问题。为此,可以在水利基础设施建设中引入PPP模式。工程项目是否采用PPP模式,需要对项目的 PPP模式适用性进行判断。提出了一种新的判断方法,用灰色系统理论对水利工程项目的 PPP模式适用性进行评价。该方法机理简单,适用性强。同时,灰色聚类作为一种定量分析方法,具有实际可操作性,对我国水利工程项目科学选用PPP模式具有实际指导意义。     

基于AHP 和ISM 的高速铁路建设项目“PPP+EPC 模式”实施影响因素研究

为帮助社会资本参与高速铁路建设项目,推动“PPP+EPC模式”在铁路建设行业的持续发展,对高速铁路建设项目“PPP+EPC模式”实施影响因素进行研究。通过文献分析与实际调研识别高速铁路建设项目“PPP+EPC模式”实施的影响因素,对铁路PPP+EPC项目结构进行分析,提出项目主要参建方,邀请相关专家进行因素的影响评价和影响机理分析。根据影响因素分析结果提出相关对策建议,为投资建设方使用“PPP+EPC模式”参与高速铁路建设项目提供参考。     

PPP 项目公司资本结构的影响因素分析

资本结构的选择关系着PPP 项目的最终成败,是项目融资的重要环节。PPP 项目公司有别于一般公司,专门分析其资本结构选择的影响因素尤为必要。通过理论分析、文献调研的方法对影响一般公司资本结构的因素进行梳理,对专家进行访谈,进一步识别出影响PPP 项目公司选择资本结构的因素。在此基础上进行问卷调研、数据分析,对影响因素的重要性进行排序,并将其与既有理论和研究做比较,从而识别出对PPP 项目公司资本结构选择格外重要的影响因素,结论可为 PPP 项目的投融资决策提供参考。     

PPP合同法律环境分析

PPP模式作为新型公私合作制在以往的公建项目中的成功运用必将在以后的我国公建项目中得到长足的发展,但作为PPP项目成功运作基石的法律目前在我国还很欠缺。因此,有针对性的对PPP合同性质、合同主体及彼此关系、PPP项目的立法现状等进行分析,并为推动PPP模式的发展所需的法律提供建设性的意见。