洞庭湖演变对农业生态环境垢影响

从洞庭湖演变历史的回顾入手，讨论了洞庭湖演变对湖区农业生态环境的影响，认为湖体演变带来了诸如湖泊温暖效应降低、洪涝灾害频繁、土壤潜有化严重、血吸虫病流行以及水产资源破坏等一系列生态环境问题，并提出了保护和改善湖区农业生态环境的对策与措施。     

洞庭湖演变趋势分析

洞庭湖的演变制约湖区的资源开发与环境整治。根据洞庭湖的湖底淤积与湖泊水面缩小的速率，分别论述了目平涌，南洞庭湖和东洞庭湖的自然演变趋势。结合三峡工程对洞庭湖的影响。分析了建坝后洞庭湖泊水面的变化及河流入湖三角洲的发育。     

洪湖沼泽土及涝洼水稻土水生作物开发研究

简要介绍了洪湖湖区的生态环境，阐述了湖周沼泽土和涝洼水稻土的性质及其开发利用现状。还报导了作者在该湖湖周进行水生作物开发利用研究的结果     

洞庭湖近年干旱与三峡蓄水影响分析

季节性水文干旱是洞庭湖近年突出的水情问题,并因三峡影响而倍受关注。基于洞庭湖水文干旱的关注焦点（湿地生态影响）及其与湖泊水情的对应关系,建立了湖泊滩地出露与持续时间为依据的干旱度量指标;并利用水文分析方法,揭示了洞庭湖水文干旱发生的时空特点和水情机制;最后,基于BP神经网络模型获取的三峡水库蓄水对洞庭湖的水位影响量化了三峡水库秋季蓄水对湖区干旱的贡献分量。结果认为：（1）2000年后,洞庭湖的干旱频次明显增多、旱情加重,干旱程度以西洞庭最剧,东洞庭次之,南洞庭最轻;（2）洞庭湖不同湖区干旱成因存在一定差异,其中全湖的春旱基本由洞庭湖流域来水偏少引起,而东洞庭湖秋旱主要由长江来水减少引起,西、南洞庭湖秋旱则由长江和洞庭湖流域来水共同减少形成;（3）三峡水库蓄水对东洞庭湖秋旱起到一定的加重作用,但并非洞庭湖近年干旱的主要因素     

近百年来洞庭湖堤垸空间变化及成因分析

系统分析洞庭湖堤垸的空间变迁规律对于阐明湖区调蓄水量的变化原因及其洪涝灾害的形成机制具有重要的意义。以《洞庭湖历史变迁地图集》为基础,运用ArcGIS的空间分析技术,对洞庭湖民国前期（1921~1930年）、民国后期（1930~1949年）、解放初期（1950~1963年）、20世纪70年代（1963~1980年）和现状（80年代至今）5个时期的堤垸演变进行了研究,详细分析了其空间格局的变迁规律及其成因。研究结果表明：自民国以来洞庭湖的堤垸面积虽不断增加,但速率明显减慢,从最初的3126%减缓至现在的273%;民国前期洞庭湖堤垸面积为5 08419 km2,民国后期所围堤垸主要集中在沅江中东部;至解放初期,通过兴建国营农场,并且在大通湖及西、南洞庭湖进行围垸,堤垸面积增加至8 10210 km2;至20世纪70年代,堤垸扩展部分主要集中在湖区西北角;近30 a来,由于“退田还湖”政策的实施,堤垸面积及其分布相对变化不大     

三峡工程运用后洞庭湖水沙情势变化及其影响初步分析

采用原型资料分析、长河段一维数学模型计算等手段,分析和预测了三峡工程运用对洞庭湖水沙与冲淤影响,研究了三峡工程运用对洞庭湖出口水位的影响,在此基础上初步分析了三峡工程运用对湖区防洪与生态环境影响。研究成果表明：三峡水库运用后30 a末,荆江三口年均分流量和分沙量比多年平均值分别减少43%和73%,三口分流道的河床相应发生冲淤变化;三峡工程运用后,受荆江三口分流比减少影响,洞庭湖区泥沙淤积显著减少,对增强洞庭湖区调蓄功能、延长洞庭湖寿命有利;受三峡水库调度运用与长江干流河道冲刷影响,洞庭湖出口水位以下降为主,汛期水位的下降将对湖区防洪有利,而枯期水位的下降将对湖区水资源利用及生态环境带来一定不利影响。     

生态工程在湖垸湿地农业持续发展中的应用

湖垸是平原湖区农业生产的基本湿地单元。本文通过对江汉平原四湖地区的一个典型湖垸──新兴垸湿地农业开发的调查与分析，指出必须在湖垸微地貌基础上建设拦蓄和疏导并举的农田水利工程设施，因地制宜布局农业生产模式，发展沼气促进湖垸湿地生态系统物质能量的多级循环利用，保护与合理利用湿地资源，同时肯定并强调生态工程的应用是湖垸湿地农业持续发展的必由之路     

江汉湖区的开发及其环境效应

江汉湖区位于长江中游的湖北省东南部,是中国湖泊密集度最大的淡水湖群区,也是重要的农业生产基地。本文从历史的角度分析了江汉平原湖区的开发及其环境２。江汉湖区全面开发始于南宋,至明清进入第一高潮,从那时起,人类驿湖区环境的影响越来越大,近年来尤为突出,主要表现为：（）砍伐森林,致使水土流失加重,河湖中的泥沙含量增加;（２）围湖垦殖,导致湖泊萎缩,降低了其对洪水的调蓄能力,生态环境不断恶化：（３）修筑提     

江汉平原涝渍地农业生态环境恢复的对策与效益分析

由于长江流域日益严峻的外生态环境的压力，加上长期以来湖区不合理的围垦开发利用，使江汉平原涝渍地域的农业生态环境变得十分脆弱。主要表现为气候变率较大，分布不均，涝渍相随，旱涝并存，农业用水的水质劣化趋势加剧，涝渍地的土壤潜沼化仍在继续，土地生产力低下，涝渍地域相对贫困人口增加。要提高认识，更新观念，将水和涝渍地看成一种资源而非负担，从整个流域生态系统出发，用大农业的观点，走社会化自然顺应的生态环境恢复之路，要上防下截，蓄泄兼顾，控制围垦，退田还湖，通过工程，生物和农业措施使涝渍小生境得到改善；要加强理论研究和国际合作，使涝渍生态环境的治理恢复更加科学的可持续。不同类型的涝渍地农业生态环境的恢复实践表明，因地制宜地治理开发可以获取很好的生态经济效益。     

长荡湖近61a降水量演化特征

基于王母观站和溧阳站1953~2013a系列年降水量资料,采用Spearman和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验、连续小波变换等技术手段,分析了61a来长荡湖年降水量的演变特征。结果表明,长荡湖多年平均降水量为1 115.1 mm,年内降水量呈明显的季节性变化;年降水量总体呈减少趋势,但仍以正常年份居多,偏多与偏少年份相当;长荡湖湖区年降水量变化周期为9.5a;年降水量变化不存在突变。研究成果可为长荡湖湖区的洪水控制、水资源利用、水调度方案制订、应对气候变化提供科学依据。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.